Twins outlook - mlbtraderumors

[gunnarthor]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/offseason-outlook-minnesota-twins-6.html

 

The piece has a few thoughts on the Twins including this trade - "One speculative bad contract swap floated by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes was to send Nolasco and a pitching prospect to the Rockies in exchange for Jose Reyes, as the difference in salaries would essentially mean the Twins were getting Reyes for two years and $23MM."

 

The piece suggests the Twins might make a trade for a catcher and finishes with 

"The Twins have a fascinating offseason on the horizon, as their highly touted farm system has begun to bear fruit at the Major League level, bringing into question the futures of some veteran contributors. Despite several graduations to the Majors, the Twins boast seven prospects in MLB.com’s Top 100, giving them a still-deep reserve of minor league talent that could be used to upgrade deficiencies at shortstop and catcher. In addition to the candidates listed above, a player such as the MLB-ready Jorge Polanco (a shortstop who most believe will need to move to second base) could be a valuable trade chip. Lower-level names such as recent Top 5 picks Kohl Stewart and Nick Gordon are well regarded but won’t factor into the Major League picture until at least 2017, if not 2018-19. With an accelerated timetable for contention, there’s an argument to be made that the Twins should shift from collecting minor league talent to parting with potentially blocked or far-off prospects in order to make a more serious run in 2016."

[Mike Sixel]

I see almost no chance Gordon is dealt, not w/o some awesome return. Stewart? Sure, I could see that.

[nytwinsfan]

This was good, except the part about Escobar is just entirely wrong:

 

The organization may still have hope, but it was Eduardo Escobar playing regularly late in the year. The 26-year-old Escobar had a nice second half that left him with a quality overall batting line (especially relative to his shortstop peers), but he’s not a great defender and hasn’t consistently shown the ability to produce offensively at the Major League level. He had a stretch similar to his 2015 second half back in 2014 but could neither maintain it then nor replicate in this year’s first half.

 

 

Wrong wrong wrong. Also, wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

This was good, except the part about Escobar is just entirely wrong:

 

 

Wrong wrong wrong. Also, wrong.

Agreed.

[sane]

"could neither maintain it then nor replicate in this year’s first half"

 

 

In the part of two seasons in which the Twins played Escobar as a regular shortstop, he hit the crap out of the ball CONSISTENTLY! At this point there is NO EVIDENCE that he can't replicate it WHENEVER he is given a regular job!

[Willihammer]

OK assuming the catchers he mentioned are in fact tradeable, what would it take to get them?

 

Specifically, Lucroy, Hedges, and Zunino

[Willihammer]

Alright, I'll try to answer my own question here. Padres hire Gardy. Gardy wants some clubhouse / leader type to help him ease into his new job. He pulls a few strings and next thing you know, TR calls AJ Preller and asks about swapping Suzuki for Austin Hedges. Preller wants to send back Kemp, TR counters with Nolasco. Gardy vetoes. OK then, TR offers Santana but wants Shields instead of Kemp. Gardy approves, ownership approves, Gardy rides his new Crestliner around the Baja Peninsula and arrives at Spring Training red-faced and ready to rock with Suzuki as his co-pilot.

[gunnarthor]

In the comments section, the author suggests the Twins and Seattle could do a Arcia/Zunino swap.  I'd be ok with that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In the comments section, the author suggests the Twins and Seattle could do a Arcia/Zunino swap.  I'd be ok with that.

Interesting.  That's one of the more realistic Arcia trade proposals I've seen.  Not sure if we're the team to reform Zunino's strikeout ways, but I think I might endorse that move too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/offseason-outlook-minnesota-twins-6.html

 

The piece has a few thoughts on the Twins including this trade - "One speculative bad contract swap floated by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes was to send Nolasco and a pitching prospect to the Rockies in exchange for Jose Reyes, as the difference in salaries would essentially mean the Twins were getting Reyes for two years and $23MM."

I really hope the ship sailed on this idea in September.

 

I'm not a huge Escobar fan but the guy's last 911 plate appearances have resulted in a .737 OPS.

 

He's going into his age 27 season. Eduardo Escobar should be the Twins starting shortstop on Opening Day 2016.

[DaveW]

Arcia for Zunino in a heartbeat.

[USAFChief]

 

In the comments section, the author suggests the Twins and Seattle could do a Arcia/Zunino swap.  I'd be ok with that.

Sign me up.

[ashbury]

At least Arcia/Zunino is a buy-low/sell-low swap. I'd go for it. Maybe add a very young prospect on both sides, just to make it a little less painful to either GM if one player breaks out and the other continues to scuffle.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I'm none too crazy about Zunino--I'd rather get Arcia 200 PA's in the first couple of months, and see if he can do anything with them.  If the Twins are 100% locked in on a Hicks-Buxton-Rosario outfield, while keeping Plouffe at third, Mauer at first, and Sano at DH, then sure, better to trade him then lose him.

 

Let's bear in mind that while Zunino is well-regarded defensively, and won't be 25 until just before the season starts, he now has 1000 MLB PA's that show he is a .174/.230/.300 hitter that strikes out more than a third of the time but only walks 5.4% of the time, and has seen his hard-hit average drop each of the last 3 years.  He also struggles mightily with 4-seam fastballs, grading out worse against that pitch than any other, which at least to my mind, isn't a strong indicator that he's about to become a useful batter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Arcia could become/resume being a useful batter and still not have any value, particularly given the Twins roster.

 

I don't think anyone is crazy about Zunino, but he's a catching alternative that the Twins would actually be willing to play behind the dish.  Remember he was also super-rushed to MLB by Seattle, he debuted in MLB almost exactly a year after being drafted, and despite his struggles at the plate, he has only spent 15 games in the minors since then.

 

Fortunately, I think that also means he has 2 option years remaining, which would give us some flexibility to try to fix him.

[USAFChief]

Taking a chance on Arcia makes sense for Seattle.

 

Taking a chance on Zunino makes sense for the Twins.

 

Pretty good chance both end up disappointed, in reality, even if Arcia clearly has a better chance to hit.  

 

But what do the Twins have to lose?  A roster spot held down by Hermann/Fryer?

[DocBauer]

At least this trade option makes sense. There is equal risk and reward for both teams, as well as potentially equal value. Arcia would always be the better offensive player, more than likely, while Zunino a better defensive one.

 

I wonder what a change of scenery and Brunansky could do for Zunino?

[nicksaviking]

Judging by past critiques of defensive minded catchers from Twins fans, Zunino's sub-Mendoza schtick isn't going to out-weigh any defensive addition he provides for very long.  It's not just his MLB stats either, since he made a splash in 2012, his MiLB numbers have been terrible. 

 

I wouldn't have guessed it was mathematically possible, but Kurt Suzuki's sad .610 OPS was 80 points higher than Zunino this year.

 

And everyone wants Suzuki replaced.

 

If we want Zunino, might as well check to see if we can get the just as (in)effective store brand version they have over in TB for cash considerations first.  That one's called J.P. Arancibia and his lack of draft position pedigree will probably cause him to cost nearly nothing.

[Winston Smith]

Arcia for Christian Bethancourt would sound better to me. I'm not sure Arcia can offer enough in the field to make a NL team want him, however.

 

Zunino could end up being Butera 2.0 unless his bat improves but it might be all Arcia is worth after this is year.

[Major League Ready]

Gary Sanchez seems like a realistic possibility  McCann is signed through 2018 with a vesting option in 2019.  Anyone care to guess what it would take to get him?

[Dantes929]

 

"could neither maintain it then nor replicate in this year’s first half"

 

 

In the part of two seasons in which the Twins played Escobar as a regular shortstop, he hit the crap out of the ball CONSISTENTLY! At this point there is NO EVIDENCE that he can't replicate it WHENEVER he is given a regular job!

Oddly, he has been exactly what everyone predicted he would be which is a light hitting utility player while also being exactly the opposite of what everyone predicted in that he has been very good as an everyday player.  

[old nurse]

 

Gary Sanchez seems like a realistic possibility  McCann is signed through 2018 with a vesting option in 2019.  Anyone care to guess what it would take to get him?

They also seem to like Murphy. Too bad they don't need an overpaid starting pitcher needing a change of scenery

[HitInAPinch]

 

"could neither maintain it then nor replicate in this year’s first half"

 

 

In the part of two seasons in which the Twins played Escobar as a regular shortstop, he hit the crap out of the ball CONSISTENTLY! At this point there is NO EVIDENCE that he can't replicate it WHENEVER he is given a regular job!

Read it this morning and almost freaked.  Given regular AB's Escobar has hit VERY well.  And I don't see why many are down on his fielding.

 

Flat out:  No to Jose Reyes.......

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

In the comments section, the author suggests the Twins and Seattle could do a Arcia/Zunino swap.  I'd be ok with that.

Before I'd  touch that, I'd need to know one thing:  Has anyone heard a reason why Arcia was so bad last year?  Pouting or did his back/hip/whatever problem cause it?

[jokin]

 

Read it this morning and almost freaked.  Given regular AB's Escobar has hit VERY well.  And I don't see why many are down on his fielding.

 

Flat out:  No to Jose Reyes.......

 

I like Escobar.  But... over 2014-15, there are 13 qualified SS with a net positive DRS.  Escobar isn't one of them (-4).  

 

I don't necessarily want Reyes, but Nolasco has to go. Somewhere.

 

Still wish that Twins would kick the tires on Desmond if he can't swing a long-term deal somewhere else.

[ashbury]

I like Escobar.  But... over 2014-15, there are 13 qualified SS with a net positive DRS.  Escobar isn't one of them (-4). 

Escobar's ceiling on defense is "steady". Except... every now and then he isn't, and silly mistakes occur. Which... he can't afford, given his un-spectactular range. As a backup or utility infielder, that's fine. But as a starter, he's, well, "acceptable" on defense. That's a half-a-step down.

 

Still a full step up from "adequate", a definite left-handed compliment in the baseball world. Nunez is what you call adequate at SS. _^Maybe.

 

Which means Escobar's offense needs to continue to be where it's been as a starter, namely very good for a SS. And I'm starting to be a believer. Which... is a jinx for sure.

[jokin]

 

Escobar's ceiling on defense is "steady". Except... every now and then he isn't, and silly mistakes occur. Which... he can't afford, given his un-spectactular range. As a backup or utility infielder, that's fine. But as a starter, he's, well, "acceptable" on defense. That's a half-a-step down.

 

Still a full step up from "adequate", a definite left-handed compliment in the baseball world. Nunez is what you call adequate at SS. _^Maybe.

 

Which means Escobar's offense needs to continue to be where it's been as a starter, namely very good for a SS. And I'm starting to be a believer. Which... is a jinx for sure.

 

To me, not "acceptable" enough for a WS contender, which it's time to start shooting for on an annual basis going forward.  

[Don Walcott]

The Rockies are not going to trade for a curve-ball pitcher unless and until they move the franchise to sea level.  What a ridiculous trade idea.

[nicksaviking]

I like Escobar. But... over 2014-15, there are 13 qualified SS with a net positive DRS. Escobar isn't one of them (-4).

 

I don't necessarily want Reyes, but Nolasco has to go. Somewhere.

 

Still wish that Twins would kick the tires on Desmond if he can't swing a long-term deal somewhere else.

Well there were 12 SS with 500 innings and a positive DRS in 2015. And Escobar was one of them. Reyes wasn't. Desmond's DRS of one was less than Escobar's.

[jokin]

 

Well there were 12 SS with 500 innings and a positive DRS in 2015. And Escobar was one of them. Reyes wasn't. Desmond's DRS of one was less than Escobar's.

 

Gotta use 2 years to get a more meaningful picture.  I don't want Reyes for a variety of issues.

 

Desmond however had a down year. but historically is an elite player at the position, a big power bat for a SS, and a very competent glove who has played the position just about every game for 6 years running.

 

He's rated the #1 SS in terms of fWAR over the last 4 seasons, and #3 over the last 3, and last 2, seasons. A comp between Esco and Desi?  They really shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence.

 

And BTW- the same article mis-characterized Desmond even worse than they did Escobar, "(Desmond) brings (his own) level of inconsistency." Other than a bad first half this year, there's no argument that he's been a premier hitter at the position since 2012.

 

And again, I would only pursue Desmond on a 1 or 2 year deal- assuming that he and his agent come to the conclusion that he needs to rebuild his value for one last big contract.