Game Thread, Twins @ Blue Jays, 8/4 @ 6:07pm CT

[BK432]

LINEUPS (These will be added in a couple of hours when posted):

 

Twins

 

 

P Phil Hughes

 

Blue Jays

 

 

P Marco Estrada

 

No team is as good as you think when things are going well.

 

No team is as bad as you know when things are going poorly.

 

It is true for the Jays and the Twins today at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Blue Jays have won 5 of 6 and looked really, really good yesterday with Troy Tulowitzki and David Price being showcased on a national holiday in Canada. The Twins, meanwhile, continued to struggle to get on base, much less score. Ervin Santana wasn't exactly sharp for his second straight outing. And we once again got the opportunity to see Blaine Boyer give up a couple of runs.

 

But today's a new day. Yesterday's performance is not predictive of today's results. The Twins remain in a 3-way virtual tie with the Blue Jays and the Orioles - with a win tonight, they can push the Blue Jays a game back again.

 

As I write that, I even believe it! So, here are some things to look for tonight in Toronto (and elsewhere):

 

Hughes v Estrada

 

As is typical for me, I like to take a look at the pitching matchup. Let's be frank: this may not be the ideal matchup for Phil Hughes. The Blue Jays rank 3rd in MLB with 141 HR and 4th in HR/FB at 13.6%. At home, that number jumps to 15.1%. On the other hand, Phil Hughes ranks with the 3rd-lowest ground ball rate among qualified pitchers in MLB. So while his HR/FB rate is above average but not alarming at 13.1%, because of the number of fly balls he gives up, his HR/9 of 1.66 is 4th highest in the league.

 

What does all this mean? Hide your children, hide your wives. Donaldson, Encarnacion, Tulo, Bautista....it seems that it's not a matter of if they go yard, but when, and how often. The one caveat I will submit is that the Blue Jays hit a LOT of infield fly balls, especially at home (14.7% at home, 14.4% overall) which is the highest in baseball by quite a bit. So if Hughes can get his cutter and sinker working nasty and induce popups instead of long drives, he may get some quick outs and have a surprisingly productive start.

 

The Twins have made a lot of pitchers lately look like Cy Young candidates. Many of them have been less of the actual candidates like David Price, and more like #2/#3 kind of guys like Hisashi Iwakuma. Today's pitcher Marco Estrada is much more of the latter and should be hittable for a team that can score runs. Unfortunately, the Twins have struggled mightily in that category as of late. 

 

Estrada's traditional stats tell a story that he may be having the best season of his career. 3.53 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 22 appearances including 16 starts. However, there may be some luck involved here: .252 BABIP and 7.2% HR/FB are career lows, while his ground ball rate has steadily decreased and also sits at a career low of 32.4%. His last two starts, he failed to finish the 6th inning, giving up 7 runs over 9.2 IP. So there may be a bit of a chink in the armor that the Twins can exploit.

 

Joe Mauer

 

We thought he was back. He had a relatively great July; through July 22, his month slash line was .338/.377/.492. He was being Joe Mauer, and the Twins were still winning games. However (WARNING: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT) over the last 10 games since, he has slumped badly at .189/.250/.243. He is hardly the only Twin to have gone missing in the batter's box, but this slump is disheartening in that it seemed he had started to figure things out. None of us want to give up on the Joe Mauer we knew and loved pre-concussion, but every run that started to give us hope has proceeded to fizzle out; his season slash line now sits at .269/.333/.379. Not awful, but just a 93 wRC and ranking 20th in MLB among first basemen. If the Twins hope to start winning again and stay in contention, they'll need their first baseman to be somewhat passable with the bat.

 

Owens and Gray

 

Let's have a little fun with prospects, shall we? Two hyped prospects make their debut tonight - Jon Gray will take the mound for Colorado, while Henry Owens will hurl for Boston. Both youngsters have been highly touted at times, but have had their rapid ascents temporarily halted by command issues in the minors at times. Once the Twins are blowing out the Blue Jays tonight (!), I'll be using my MLB.tv subscription to check in on these two newly minted MLB pitchers to see how they stack up.

 

I think that's it for today. At least our friends to the north should be back at work today like us Americans. I mean, how many holidays do they get up there anyway? Enjoy the game.

[Matt Kummer]

Nice post, my brother!

I hadn't realized that Marco Estrada was having that kind of year. He was never remarkable for the Brewers.

But, given the offense he has, and that it's facing the kind of pitcher that it should destroy, he won't have to be good.

I predict a 10-5 loss. Hughes doesn't last 4 innings.

(And having said that, watch Phil toss 7 innings of 1 run ball.)

 

I will say it again about Mauer: He poses huge roster issues for this team going forward. We are at the point where is blocking guys who have a good chance to easily exceed his slash numbers.

[Mike Sixel]

Great, entertaining, write up.

 

Minor disagreements on:

 

Actually, that is an awful line by Mauer.

 

And, yesterday's performance is predictive, this is not a random walk, because there are talent levels competing against each other.

 

I agree with your work on the two starting pitchers, but man, that's a tall order for Hughes.

[BK432]

Awful is relative - we can agree on not very good.

 

And yesterday's game in and of itself is not predictive of what will happen today. Had the Twins won 11-2 yesterday, it wouldn't mean the Twins were any more likely to win today. As you said, talent levels are different and more or less static.

 

Great, entertaining, write up.

 

Minor disagreements on:

 

Actually, that is an awful line by Mauer.

 

And, yesterday's performance is predictive, this is not a random walk, because there are talent levels competing against each other.

 

I agree with your work on the two starting pitchers, but man, that's a tall order for Hughes.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Awful is relative - we can agree on not very good.

 

And yesterday's game in and of itself is not predictive of what will happen today. Had the Twins won 11-2 yesterday, it wouldn't mean the Twins were any more likely to win today. As you said, talent levels are different and more or less static.

 

Fair........both points.

[David HK]

Well, this happened yesterday, too--  15-13 USA victory in the last 10 seconds!  

So I have hope we can lay another one on our northerly neighbors, eh?

 

[Craig Arko]

Estrada hasn't been the same since CHiPS ended.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Estrada hasn't been the same since CHiPS ended.

 

I don't know, his accessories line was pretty good.

 

http://www.nysportsjournalism.com/storage/BurgerKestrad.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1252422437538

[spinowner]

It's not just whom you play, it's also when you play them. It's not just who plays you it's when they play you. Since the break we have not played teams at advantageous times, both regarding them and regarding us. Angels were hot, Yankees were hot, Pirates were hot, Blue Jays are hot. During that time, we are not. I'm not going to say anything predictive about tonight but I do hope things turn around soon.

[DaveW]

The key to tonight is preventing walks (Hughes best strength) and preventing extra outs defensively. The Jays are going to hit their Home Runs, especially off of Hughes, if he can limit the damage to solo shots the Twins have a good chance to win.

[BK432]

Apparently, you can only edit a post once before you lose that ability - should have left that slight spelling error in place....

 

LINEUPS:

 

Twins

2B Brian Dozier

1B Joe Mauer

3B Trevor Plouffe

DH Miguel Sano

RF Torii Hunter

LF Eddie Rosario

CH Aaron Hicks

C   Kurt Suzuki

SS Eduardo Nunez

 

P Phil Hughes

 

Blue Jays

SS Troy Tulowitzki

3B Josh Donaldson

RF Jose Bautista

1B Edwin Encarnacion

DH Russell Martin

C   Dioner Navarro

2B Ryan Goins

CF Kevin Pillar

LF Ben Revere

 

P Marco Estrada

[James]

 

Apparently, you can only edit a post once before you lose that ability - should have left that slight spelling error in place....

 

LINEUPS:

 

Twins

 

CH Aaron Hicks

 

Are you referring to this error? 

 

I wouldn't worry about little things like that.  I speel things wrong all the time.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

You know, if Mauer and Hunter were peak Mauer and Hunter, that would look quite fair.......

 

Hoping for a win!

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Apparently, you can only edit a post once before you lose that ability - should have left that slight spelling error in place....

 

LINEUPS:

 

Twins

2B Brian Dozier

1B Joe Mauer

3B Trevor Plouffe

DH Miguel Sano

RF Torii Hunter

LF Eddie Rosario

CH Aaron Hicks

C   Kurt Suzuki

SS Eduardo Nunez

 

P Phil Hughes

 

Blue Jays

SS Troy Tulowitzki

3B Josh Donaldson

RF Jose Bautista

1B Edwin Encarnacion

DH Russell Martin

C   Dioner Navarro

2B Ryan Goins

CF Kevin Pillar

LF Ben Revere

 

P Marco Estrada

Our shortstop is better than theirs.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

 

Are you referring to this error? 

 

I wouldn't worry about little things like that.  I speel things wrong all the time.

And sometimes you spill them wrong, and then they're on the floor where you didn't want them to be.

[ScrapTheNickname]

And Joe Mauer leads the Twins in batting average at .269 on August 4.

 

A not very august achievement.

[JB_Iowa]

 

Apparently, you can only edit a post once before you lose that ability - should have left that slight spelling error in place....

 

 

 

 

 

 

I thought that, too, but apparently it is a "time out" factor.  You can only edit for about an hour, I think.

[spinowner]

 

I thought that, too, but apparently it is a "time out" factor.  You can only edit for about an hour, I think.

That's what I've been told by one of the mods. Only they have the power after the time expires.

[Shane Wahl]

Three left-handed bats in the lineup against a RH pitcher.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Nice write up. Let me fix one line for you:

 

I mean, how many holidays do they get up there, eh?

[stringer bell]

Three left-handed bats in the lineup against a RH pitcher.

What else is there? Escobar? With the disappointments/failures of Santana, Vargas, and Arcia, there aren't many left-handed bats for the Twins.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I think it's time to start a winning streak.

[Mill1634]

Dozier was just a little late on that

[Kwak]

I infer from the Thread author that tonight will be like hearing The 1812 Overture--Hmm?

[Mill1634]

game over...they scored

[GCTF]

Phlyball Phil at it again.

[JB_Iowa]

Morris:  You got to be ready to swing the bat.

 

Yeah, and hit it right out of the park.

 

Home Run Hughes.

[notoriousgod71]

Is there any possible way Hughsie gives up less than three home runs this game?

[AlwaysinModeration]

3:1 GO/FO ratio for Phil, that's, good, right?

 

Twins need a crooked number.

[zchrz]

Zombie bats appear to still be in effect