Instant Reaction Poll: Rate the Hu for Jepsen Traded

[USAFChief]

I'm not saying they are the models to follow.  I am saying people who are tired of not competing for 4 seasons act like it's completely out of the norm to go through stretches of non-competitive baseball.  None of the teams i mentioned spent fast and furious to get where they are.

It seems to me you are holding them up as the model to follow. Not only should we wait for Buxton, Sano and Berrios, we must wait for Stewert, Gordon and Jay, too. Otherwise we're harvesting in June.

 

That means another four years, at least.

 

I'm not ok with that. I wouldn't be even if that was guaranteed to work, and of course it's not, as proven by the very Teams you brought up.

[SwainZag]

 

It seems to me you are holding them up as the model to follow. Not only should we wait for Buxton, Sano and Berrios, we must wait for Stewert, Gordon and Jay, too. Otherwise we're harvesting in June.

That means another four years, at least.

I'm not ok with that. I wouldn't be even if that was guaranteed to work, and of course it's not, as proven by the very Teams you brought up.

 

Now you are putting words in my mouth.  Sano, Rosario and Buxton are rookies with very limited AB's.  Hicks is finally showing why he was a big prospect in the 1st place.  Arcia, Vargas and Santana who have shown they can play are all struggling in the minors.  I am saying why not wait until at least someone or a group of guys show some consistency or that they are here to stay?  Wait until at least a small portion of the great farm system actually produces?  Why be tired of hearing about a great farm system before anyone actually develops?  I am not saying everyone.

[Kwak]

 

I agree, but if the fans are being impatient, so was Ryan. He was the one who gave unmovable long-term contracts to a bunch of mid-rotation starters during the decline stages of their careers. He was acting as desperate as any fan.

I disagree on several points:

 

1) I think that "the moneyed fans" complained long and loud enough to convince the "Executive Committee" to improve the team immediately or they would "spend less".  Money spoke, Pohlad heard, and the budget was increased with a directive to "start fixing problems--NOW". 

 

2) part of the "justification" for the new stadium was to put a better team on the field--which would require more revenue.  The revenue came--but the payroll was slashed.  The Twins certainly could (and have made improvements) to the team with free agent contracts--as they should!

 

3) I consider these mid-term contracts (3-4 years).  Those are provided to keep the player (his and the teams security)--not to flip like renovated houses.

[nicksaviking]

I disagree on several points:

 

1) I think that "the moneyed fans" complained long and loud enough to convince the "Executive Committee" to improve the team immediately or they would "spend less".  Money spoke, Pohlad heard, and the budget was increased with a directive to "start fixing problems--NOW". 

 

2) part of the "justification" for the new stadium was to put a better team on the field--which would require more revenue.  The revenue came--but the payroll was slashed.  The Twins certainly could (and have made improvements) to the team with free agent contracts--as they should!

 

3) I consider these mid-term contracts (3-4 years).  Those are provided to keep the player (his and the teams security)--not to flip like renovated houses.

They're not 3-4 year deals, they are four year deals, and they are unmovable. So if the team actually wanted to get a front of the rotation arm, it now as to come at the expense of May, Berrios, Gibson or whatever hot prospect is in the wings because the vets are locked in worthy or not.

 

It was knee-jerk. If Ryan wanted to appease the fans with these kinds of signings, it should have been at the beginning of the down phase, to bridge the gap. He was slow to acknowledge a rebuild was needed, he miss-timed his free agent approach and now the team is stuck in an unfavorable position if they need to upgrade the rotation.

[Riverbrian]

Say Hello to San Diego and the Chicago White Sox and the Marlins. 

 

All teams that impressed the pundits with aggressive off season moves and signings. 

 

When it comes to Jepsen... The acquisition didn't blow me away but I was hoping for immediate bullpen help because we are in it right now. So I'll take Jepsen and am reasonably certain we upgraded someplace in this pen. 

 

When It comes to Hu... Is there someplace where I can watch him.... There seems to be a lot of folks here who have the ability to watch him and come away very confident in their assessment of him. 

[blairpaul715]

 

Jones is 23 years old, still at high A, with an OPS of .714 and 110 Ks in 370 ABs. Some scouts think he will need to move to the OF, and others worry that his contact issues will prevent him from ever developing into a good hitter. Yes, he has higher upside than Hu, but I'm not sure how much, and if you include Tapia, and then look at Soria vs. Jepson, I think the Pirates made a better deal than the Twins.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree, but i do agree that Soria is better.

[jimmer]

To me, one of the biggest issues with our team is the high % of inherited runners allowed to score by our bullpen and the overall amount we've allowed to score. When we talk about improving our bullpen, it seems that we should be looking to improve that. Signing a guy who has allowed 43% this year and 35% last year, when our team this year has allowed 34%, makes me wonder how much of an improvement it really is.  Can we only bring him in without guys on bases?

[stringer bell]

To me, one of the biggest issues with our team is the high % of inherited runners allowed to score by our bullpen and the overall amount we've allowed to score. When we talk about improving our bullpen, it seems that we should be looking to improve that. Signing a guy who has allowed 43% this year and 35% last year, when our team this year has allowed 34%, makes me wonder how much of an improvement it really is.  Can we only bring him in without guys on bases?

If Jepsen is the eighth inning guy, he won't have many inherited base runners to worry about. Every inherited runner is not the same.

[jimmer]

 

If Jepsen is the eighth inning guy, he won't have many inherited base runners to worry about. Every inherited runner is not the same.

My point was that our most glaring problem is allowing inherited runners to score. If we make him our 8th inning guy (if he only starts the eight inning) we aren't addressing our biggest problem with the bullpen.  And by the looks of it, he shouldn't be brought in with inherited runners.

 

And yes, not all inherited runners are the same.  That can be said about every reliever.

 

 

 

[dgwills]

I don't understand this move. Hu like most pitching prospects has a high risk of busting. That is why you need a lot of them! Really this is not the year the Twins should be getting rid of prospects. Maybe next year when we have a better idea of what players have a future with the Twins. If you're going to trade prospects for relievers you better be one reliever away from being a World Series contender. Even then it seldom works out. Look at how Detroit traded away pieces to try to fix their bullpen the last couple of years. At least in their shoes I could see the reason for it. Most teams in the league seem to realize this. I think it's time for Ryan to start looking for a successor.

[spinowner]

Didn't vote. Haven't read any other comments. It may be five years or more before we know whether it was a good trade or not. That said, I wouldn't have made this trade. I probably wouldn't have made any trade. I don't think this trade will have much effect on whether we qualify for the postseason or not and it doesn't matter much to me whether we qualifiy for the postseason or not. I'd rather have held on to the prospects.

[Blackjack]

It'll be 5 - or 10 - years before we know if this is a good trade. Mellow out folks!!! The sky isn't falling!!!

[stringer bell]

The Twins have a decent chance to make the playoffs. The bullpen is weak and needs reinforcements. Jepsen would be an upgrade for that bullpen. Hu is one of several that is a fringy prospect and he's in A ball.

[jimmer]

Before tonight's win, according to Baseball Prospectus, our odds of making the playoffs sat at just under 18%. Toronto was over 50%.  Baltimore over 20%. Angels over 70%, NYY, Houston and KC over 90%. There are 5 playoff spots.

 

'Postseason probabilities are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and indicate each team's probability of winning the division or wild card, or any postseason berth. Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule.'

[drjim]

I don't buy Baltimore over the Twins but the rest of the odds look about right. Twins strike me as the clear 6th.

[Linus]

But, Clippard Papelbon and Lowe are all arguably better than Jepson - and in the case of Clippard the A's got a comparable player to Wu, not 2 players and ALSO included cash in the deal. Papelbon brought back a worse prospect - he wasn't a candidate for the Twins though, unless you wanted to see Perkins in the setup role, due to his no-trade clause. For Lowe, the Mariners got 3 guys, the best of which has a 4.78 ERA in rookie ball right now.Again, I like the Rays take better than of these deals. Then let's not forget about Cishek who really isn't much worse than Jepson, for a AA SP that nobody considers to be a great prospect and has bad control.

 

It wasn't a good deal for the Twins, based upon the current market for RPs. It's also not the end of the world. Just seems we might have been able to do better if we would have been willing to act quicker rather than waiting until a couple of hours before the deadline.

Hu is Wu?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

TR upgraded the bullpen. It should be pretty easy to upgrade that pen since it is terrible... But the trade did what was intended, so in isolation I give it a pass. He acquired a replace level RP which is better than the current stiffs in the pen.

 

TR overpaid for Jepsen, but that's what happens when you try to make a deal by the trade deadline because you feel like you have to. A similar pitcher can be traded for in August, cheaper.

 

Where TR fails miserably is this bullpen has been a ticking time bomb all season, it should have been addressed last offseason. One RP is not enough, they need one or two more who are better than Jepsen. Better than replacement level is tough to do, but not impossible for RP in Aug. Also, the team really needed to improve at catcher, that will not happen in August.

[DaveW]

Sweet trade Ryan!!!! He fits right into this bullpen,

[LaBombo]

 

If Jepsen is the eighth inning guy, he won't have many inherited base runners to worry about. Every inherited runner is not the same.

 

If Jep is the one-size-fits-all 8th inning guy, there's a pretty good chance he's going to get knocked around by teams that can put two or three decent lefty/switch hitters out there against him.

[Zachary]

One thing is for sure, he really stepped up and proved his worth today... ... ... Frustrating.

I wish I posted this before today's game but something about trading for a guy that has major control issues and expecting him to come in and replace whoever as our 8th inning guy doesn't sit right. He's not an 8th inning guy IMO nor is he an 11th inning guy, apparently.

[twinssouth]

After yesterday's results, I'm changing my vote to F.

[SarasotaBill]

Trades are dependent on timing.

 

Ryan felt obliged to boost the bullpen because they were in the 2nd wild card position.

 

That's his failure.

 

With no E. Santana for the playoffs the Twins don't have a staff to overcome a wild card game and the next series.

 

If he felt he had no relief options in the minors he should have called up some starters.

 

2015 has been nice but the GM role is to look at the bigger picture which is increase assets for 2016 to 2022.

 

Getting a 31 yr old RP with 20 walks in 33 innings for Hu and Tapia is not increasing assets.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Why don't you think Hu is a B prospect?

He was rated 15th best Twins prospect coming in to the season on Knuckleballs... who is also a TD poster and lives in Cedar Rapids and watched most of Hu's starts IN PERSON last season. So, Hu was a top 15 prospect on the same lists that Sano and Buxton were on. Hu might have been a Twins top 10 prospect going into 2016 if things shook out differently. Also, Hu has a better stat line than Corey Meisner, who was traded for Clippard this week. Yeah these are A ball guys, but still. Why couldn't Ryan just say "no one in our Top 20."

So yeah, I think Ryan overpaid. I also bet you that Tampa Bay got the guy they wanted. Did Ryan get the guy he wanted? I think this also gets to why people are just put off by this trade/non-trade trade deadline inaction.

 

At the same time:

 

Hu didn't make the Twins BA top 30 list (Tapia was #29).

Hu was number 20 on Sickels' list, with a C+ grade, albeit with a sleeper alert on him.

Hu is having a nice season at Fort Myers, but his peripheral numbers are starting to regress.

 

The write-up BA had on Hu seemed pretty much what you'd expect given his numbers. 90-91 sinker. No other really good secondary pitches. His probable upside is more #4 starter/middle reliever than guy you regret trading. 

 

As for Meisner v. Hu, if I have to pick one I go Meisner. He strikes me more as the Mets version of Stewart than Hu. And if they had traded Stewart or Gonsalves, well, that would have been a trade that's worth outrage.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW said Hu was a great get for a guy like Jepsen......

 

but really, the issue is......... they traded for a mediocre to good RP, when they had holes all over the place, as if this would help the team make the playoffs in any meaningful way.

 

After ignoring fixing SS and C all year, and not doing enough to fix the bullpen.