Reyes may be flipped

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's debatable.

It's really not.

 

Tulowitzki: 10 MLB seasons.

4 seasons of 6-7 rWAR

2 seasons of 5-6 rWAR

 

Reyes: 13 MLB seasons.

2 seasons of 5-6 rWAR

2 seasons of 4-5 rWAR

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Actually there is evidence speed ages better than discipline-power guys. Here's an analysis where Reyes and Tulo are mentioned by name.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves

 

Warning - STATISTICS

The problem with all of that is it assumes the player sticks at a premium position.

 

If Tulowitzki can't stick at SS, he moves to 3B or even 1B and gives marginal value.

 

If Reyes can't stick at SS - and he's already past that point - he's... not valuable at all, really.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fangraphs is a bit closer but the difference is still evident:

 

Tulowitzki: 10 MLB seasons.

6 seasons of 5+ fWAR

 

Reyes: 13 MLB seasons.

4 seasons of 5+ fWAR

 

It should also be noted that the last time Reyes was a truly good player was 2011, his age 28 season (and was injured/mediocre the previous two seasons). The majority of his value was skewed very early in his career during his ages 23-25 seasons.

 

On the other hand, Tulowitzki was 5+ WAR the past two seasons, ages 28-29.

[spinowner]

This is the 94th post on this thread, counting the first one. That makes about 90 posts more than this topic deserves.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't understand the Rockies wanting Reyes - I think he's basically little more than a salary dump, so I agree the Jays definitely upgraded at a substantially lower cost than expected.

 

But holy schnikes can we stop underselling just how huge the red flags are on Tulo's health?  I'd still do this deal in a heartbeat but his health profile is as scary as any elite player in the league.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Rockies have a nice prospect in Trevor Story who could use a bit more seasoning.  They essentially picked up a stop gap in Reyes and were able to unload Tulo's contract and pick up some OK prospects.  Not sure I'd agree with them if I was a fan personally.  I think they should have gotten more for picking up Reyes.

[Thrylos]

 

Eduardo Escobar is not a perfect solution but he's the best solution the Twins have and it's not even close.

 

The best solution the Twins have is called Jorge Polanco, and there is no reason he should be in AAA over Danny Santana right now...  

 

I don't mind Escobar, and, yes, he is the best SS in the Twins' 25 man roster,  he just is not their best MLB-ready SS right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The best solution the Twins have is called Jorge Polanco, and there is no reason he should be in AAA over Danny Santana right now...  

 

I don't mind Escobar, and, yes, he is the best SS in the Twins' 25 man roster,  he just is not their best MLB-ready SS right now.

I don't know if I agree that Polanco is better than Escobar right now but I won't disagree with that take, either. The Twins have a few options, yet they continue to use the one we already know is really bad.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't know if I agree that Polanco is better than Escobar right now but I won't disagree with that take, either. The Twins have a few options, yet they continue to use the one we already know is really bad.

 

I'd also suggest there are strong indications from those that see Polanco that he may not be a shortstop long term.  

[Thrylos]

 

I'd also suggest there are strong indications from those that see Polanco that he may not be a shortstop long term.  

 

Have you noticed that those are the same people who were arguing that Sano was not "ready" because "he strikes out too much"?  Coincidence?

[Mike Sixel]

Have you noticed that those are the same people who were arguing that Sano was not "ready" because "he strikes out too much"? Coincidence?

Not the same people at all, I would guess. Nine errors indicates he may have some significant work to do yet.

[dxpavelka]

 

As has been said ad infinitum, Mauer has a no-trade clause in his contract. A no-trade clause means he can't be traded. So trading him is not an option. And proposing for him to be traded is not an option.

Of course proposing trades for him is an option-for special folk.

 

[kab21]

 

Yeah, I haven't even gotten to the player profile of each guy. Reyes is the type of player that screams DO NOT WANT the moment he starts edging toward 30. He's not disciplined. His contact rate is middling. His power is good but not awesome. His main asset is speed.

 

When speed goes, it goes in a hurry and it never returns. Jose Reyes is a bad player if he can't run and can't play shortstop.

 

On the other hand, Tulowitzki has great power. Decent contact ability. Great discipline. Those players, even when they diminish slightly, can be hidden at third or first and not embarrass the team. They also tend to mature more gracefully, barring injury. Power is the last skill to go and discipline doesn't go away until all the other skills are completely shot.

 

If I'm paying a guy $20m a year from age 30-35, I choose Tulowitzki 14 out of 10 times.

I would absolutely prefer Tulo but everyone made arguments against getting him because the prospects cost too much. 

 

This changes nothing regarding Reyes.  I would instantly take Reyes in a deal for 2/25 (including buyout) for one of the mid tier prospects as long as they also take Nolasco (making the Reyes contract 2/25). 

 

 

[jimmer]

 

I would absolutely prefer Tulo but everyone made arguments against getting him because the prospects cost too much. 

 

This changes nothing regarding Reyes.  I would instantly take Reyes in a deal for 2/25 (including buyout) for one of the mid tier prospects as long as they also take Nolasco (making the Reyes contract 2/25). 

Plenty never waivered in their support of trade for Tulo.

 

Reyes is still owed over 50M

[USAFChief]

 

Reyes is still owed over 50M

Actually, I think it's 2/44, plus a 4M buyout for 2018.  Almost 50 mil

[jimmer]

 

Actually, I think it's 2/44, plus a 4M buyout for 2018.  Almost 50 mil

he is still going to get paid for the remaining two months of this season, right?  Probably push him over 50M.

[USAFChief]

 

he is still going to get paid for the remaining two months of this season, right?  Probably push him over 50M.

I stand corrected.

[kab21]

 

Plenty never waivered in their support of trade for Tulo.

 

Reyes is still owed over 50M

That's why Nolasco needs to be in the deal.  He reduces that 50M by half.

[DaveW]

That's why Nolasco needs to be in the deal. He reduces that 50M by half.

why didn't you say that before!?!??!??,?

 

 

 

[Linus]

Reyes is now what we were concerned Tulowitzki would be in two years. His defense is below average. His bat is weaker and void against lefties this year. He might be a slight upgrade this year but will be a huge deficit going forward.

 

He might be worth a win though and that win could be the difference between being the road team in a wild card play in game and sitting on the outside. The Twins would have to plan to move him to LF for the future though.

 

The only deal I would consider is Mauer for Reyes. The Twins could play Reyes at SS this year and replace Mauer in the lineup with Arcia or Kepler or a rental bat.

 

The Twins might need to send some cash or C prospects or both with Mauer.

Ok, everyone tune in: Mauer has a no trade clause. Hes going nowhere. Please stop with any Mauer trade posts.

[tobi0040]

 

Ok, everyone tune in: Mauer has a no trade clause. Hes going nowhere. Please stop with any Mauer trade posts.

 

A future without the following suggestions would be great:

 

Moving Mauer to catcher

Trading Mauer

Trading Nolasco

 

Neither is happening. Period.

[tobi0040]

 

That's why Nolasco needs to be in the deal.  He reduces that 50M by half.

 

What would the thoughts be on Rockies Daily if this happened?  I have a feeling they are not strategizing a way to pry Nolasco from us.  Although it would be must see TV if he pitched at Coors Field.

[USAFChief]

What would the thoughts be on Rockies Daily if this happened? I have a feeling they are not strategizing a way to pry Nolasco from us. Although it would be must see TV if he pitched at Coors Field.

They only took Reyes back for financial reasons...Toronto couldn't take all of Tulo's salary, so Colorado took Reyes to lessen the financial burden...on both teams. They hope to perhaps flip Reyes at some pt, but know it will require eating money.

 

Nolasco in a Reyes trade would serve the same purpose.

[DaveW]

 

A future without the following suggestions would be great:

 

Moving Mauer to catcher

Trading Mauer

Trading Nolasco

 

Neither is happening. Period.

Nolasco could be traded, especially in a Reyes trade. Or he could be traded next season as well if he can actually be healthy. For all the grief we give Nolasco, he is actually a solid pitcher.

[tobi0040]

 

Nolasco could be traded, especially in a Reyes trade. Or he could be traded next season as well if he can actually be healthy. For all the grief we give Nolasco, he is actually a solid pitcher.

 

Nolasco    32 years old.    Missed about 20 starts the last 1.5 years, about half his reps.  Career ERA+ 91.  ERA of 5.38 and 5.51 the last two years.  At best a #3 starter in prime.

 

Reyes. 32 years old.  Missed only 25 or so games the last two years.  OPS+ of 105 and 97 at a premium position.  Career 107+. He still swipes 30 bags a year.  Four time all star.  Won a batting title. Silver slugger award.

 

Under no circumstance are these two going to be traded for each other.  NONE.  Even if we throw in Duensing.

[tobi0040]

 

They only took Reyes back for financial reasons...Toronto couldn't take all of Tulo's salary, so Colorado took Reyes to lessen the financial burden...on both teams. They hope to perhaps flip Reyes at some pt, but know it will require eating money.

Nolasco in a Reyes trade would serve the same purpose.

 

In a handful of days, we went from Tulo has a great contract that is an asset and we would have to give up top prospects including Berrios.......to Colorado had to take back a really bad contract to make the deal work.  A guy that could be traded 1-1 with Ricky Nolasco. 

 

Not following.   If we could have gotten Tulo for Nolasco, the 80th best prospect and a few non-100 guys we would have done it.

[USAFChief]

In a handful of days, we went from Tulo has a great contract that is an asset and we would have to give up top prospects including Berrios.......to Colorado had to take back a really bad contract to make the deal work.  A guy that could be traded 1-1 with Ricky Nolasco. 

 

Not following.   If we could have gotten Tulo for Nolasco, the 80th best prospect and a few non-100 guys we would have done it.

I concur, you're not following.

[Trevor0333]

The price in prospects would have to be almost free for me to consider Reyes and his contract.

This.

 

If they would do Nolasco & Santana for Reyes & a RP. Now we're talking.

[tobi0040]

 

I concur, you're not following.

 

Which of these did I miss?  The general sentiment on these boards were:

 

Tulo is a great player and if he was a free agent he would get more than 5/100, therefore his deal adds to his value.  We should do it.

 

We would have to give up Berrios plus, say guys like Kohl/ Kepler....

 

Colorado took Reyes as a bad contract.

 

Now I have literally seen five people throw out trades that would land Reyes here for Ricky Nolasco.

 

I am very confident the folks at Rockies Daily are not proposing this trade. Heck, good players are not traded with injury concerns and we are not talking about a good player.

[kab21]

 

What would the thoughts be on Rockies Daily if this happened?  I have a feeling they are not strategizing a way to pry Nolasco from us.  Although it would be must see TV if he pitched at Coors Field.

 

they want to trade Reyes and the reality of trading Reyes is needing to send some money or take back a contract to make it happen.  Nolasco is the logical choice for Twins/Rockies trade for that reason.  The Rockies still save about 25M and should pick up a mid-tier prospect while the Twins get Reyes for a reasonable contract (2/25 or so) to fill a big hole. 

 

In a way Reyes is similar to Luis Castillo a decade ago.  The arguments against are similar to the liabilities that Castillo had but he was a dependable player on the field even if he was in decline.

 

Tulo's contract (20+M) is really hard for most teams to fit into a midseason budget.  I'm guessing that the only way they could deal with the Jays was to offset the salaries.  If they say no to taking Reyes back then they might not have another trade partner.