Reyes may be flipped

[DaveW]

 

I think you overrate Gonsalves or overrate the craptastic options the Twins have at SS.  Reyes is a very solid player that fills a big hole for the Twins not only in the field but also in the lineup at leadoff.

Brock thinks Escobar is some great SS, so yeah, not shocking.

Gonsalves is a solid, but not great prospect anyways.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock thinks Escobar is some great SS, so yeah, not shocking.

Keep lining up those strawmen, Dave. In no way, shape, or form have I suggested Escobar is even a good starting shortstop.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Reyes is a shell of his former self.

 

Toronto fans were celebrating when they heard Reyes was traded.

 

And, they were celebrating even before they knew Tulo was part of the deal *ba-dum*

[DaveW]

 

Keep lining up those strawmen, Dave. In no way, shape, or form have I suggested Escobar is even a good starting shortstop.

Yeah, you just compare him to Ozzie Smith defensively.

[twinsnorth49]

All I've read is that Escobar is the best starting SS option currently on this team, how is that not true?

[astauty]

It's fun to think about, but it's not going to happen. 

[tobi0040]

Tulo for Reyes, Hawkins, Hoffman, Castro, and Tinoco.

 

The final tally:

 

A 32 year old starting SS that is probably above average offensively, below defensively and $44M over the next two years.

 

A 42 year old reliever with a 3.63 ERA.

 

Their 3rd (Hoffman), 5th (Castro), and 29th best prospect (Tinoco).  None on Law's top 100.  Hoffman is 87th on Mayo's.

 

I think those insisting we would have needed to part with Berrios were mistaken.  I think we could have gotten Tulo with something less plus quantity. 

 

 

 

[70charger]

 

Yeah, you just compare him to Ozzie Smith defensively.

 

That post was about anecdotal evidence being unreliable, and it was absolutely not meant to compare Escobar's defense favorably with Smith's.

 

Now this is absolutely a straw man.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, you just compare him to Ozzie Smith defensively.

You're intentionally being disruptive to the thread. Please stop. You know damned well I said nothing of the sort.

[TheLeviathan]

 

All I've read is that Escobar is the best starting SS option currently on this team, how is that not true?

 

I'm reasonably certain your confusion is Paul Molitor's fault.

[DaveW]

 

You're intentionally being disruptive to the thread. Please stop. You know damned well I said nothing of the sort.

Haha

[DaveW]

 

 

I'm reasonably certain your confusion is Paul Molitor's fault.

Not playing Escobar at SS is one of the things Molitor is doing right IMO.

[Willihammer]

Player A was a highly effective but injury prone SS who accumulated 28 WAR through age 28, after which a 6 year, 9 figure extension kicked in.

 

Player B was a highly effective but injury prone SS who accumulated 38 WAR through age 29 after which a 6 year, 9 figure extension kicked in.

 

Player A has put up 9.2 WAR through 3.5 years into his extension and is seen as a declining expensive veteran.

 

Player B has put up 1.7 WAR through 0.5 years into his extension and is sees as a long-term asset and a good value.

 

Something doesn't jive here.

[Willihammer]

The other thing worth pointing out is the weird 1-trade clause in Tulo's contract. Toronto can't turn around and flip him in two years if/when he declines like they could with Reyes. They are on the hook for the whole 100m+. Perhaps that was a factor in the prospect package they sent to Colorado.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Cameron has a good take on this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/troy-tulowitzki-the-blue-jays-and-upgrading-strengths/

 

This seemed pretty damning from the Rockies' perspective:

 

"In terms of prospect value, these two look fairly similar to the two primary pieces the Reds got in exchange for Cueto. If the third prospect in the deal is the least valuable of the trio, then it may very well be that the Blue Jays paid less to get Tulowitzki than the Royals paid to get their rent-an-ace."

[tobi0040]

 

Cameron has a good take on this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/troy-tulowitzki-the-blue-jays-and-upgrading-strengths/

 

This seemed pretty damning from the Rockies' perspective:

 

"In terms of prospect value, these two look fairly similar to the two primary pieces the Reds got in exchange for Cueto. If the third prospect in the deal is the least valuable of the trio, then it may very well be that the Blue Jays paid less to get Tulowitzki than the Royals paid to get their rent-an-ace."

 

Is it possible that the market for Tulo and 5/100 was not as big as some thought?  I think the return here is indicative of that.  Not even a top 70 prospect and they took back, arguably a bad contract.

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Player A was a highly effective but injury prone SS who accumulated 28 WAR through age 28, after which a 6 year, 9 figure extension kicked in.

 

Player B was a highly effective but injury prone SS who accumulated 38 WAR through age 29 after which a 6 year, 9 figure extension kicked in.

 

Player A has put up 9.2 WAR through 3.5 years into his extension and is seen as a declining expensive veteran.

 

Player B has put up 1.7 WAR through 0.5 years into his extension and is sees as a long-term asset and a good value.

 

Something doesn't jive here.

 

 

You know I read the same thing. But I also read:

 

Player A has a .773 OPS since signing that extension, and has been dropping steadily since that deal was signed.

 

Player B has an OPS of .818 since signing that extension, a down year by player B's standards. Still a number that Player A has only reached 3 times in his career, and not since 2011.  

 

It's adorable to count WAR for player A at 3.5 years and player B at 0.5 years to make the numbers significantly different. How about we go from the same point of reference, just to make it fair.

 

Player A has put up a 9.2 WAR over the last 3.5 years.

 

Player B has put up a 19 WAR over the last 3.5 years.

 

**73.5% of all statisticians know that 62% of all stats can be manipulated to prove an agenda**

[jimmer]

 

The other thing worth pointing out is the weird 1-trade clause in Tulo's contract. Toronto can't turn around and flip him in two years if/when he declines like they could with Reyes. They are on the hook for the whole 100m+. Perhaps that was a factor in the prospect package they sent to Colorado.

perhaps, but he will be 35 when his contract ends not 40.  So it's probably fine. Since he's younger and better player than Reyes who they were on the hook for anyway.

[Willihammer]

 

You know I read the same thing. But I also read:

 

Player A has a .773 OPS since signing that extension, and has been dropping steadily since that deal was signed.

 

Player B has an OPS of .818 since signing that extension, a down year by player B's standards. Still a number that Player A has only reached 3 times in his career, and not since 2011.  

 

It's adorable to count WAR for player A at 3.5 years and player B at 0.5 years to make the numbers significantly different. How about we go from the same point of reference, just to make it fair.

 

Player A has put up a 9.2 WAR over the last 3.5 years.

 

Player B has put up a 19 WAR over the last 3.5 years.

 

**73.5% of all statisticians know that 62% of all stats can be manipulated to prove an agenda**

I was not "manipulating" to diminish Tulo's 2015 production. I assume any 3rd grader can do the division and turn it into a rate. I'm speaking to the trend of decline and how players gradually get more expensive. Here, I'll do the same without using stats.

 

Player A is tending older, more ineffective, and more expensive. So is Player B. Only Player B is perceived a lot differently than Player A.

[Willihammer]

 

perhaps, but he will be 35 when his contract ends not 40.  So it's probably fine. Since he's younger and better player than Reyes who they were on the hook for anyway.

Well, Reyes was locked up through age 34. I mean, the comparison is too easy, they're the same SS at different stages of the same extension.

 

So I'd say its probable Tulo is a decently above average player the next 1-3 years. But you'd fully expect those last 2-3 to be burdensome just as Reyes' are/were, right?

 

(Now watch the Rockies will flip Reyes for a top 100 prospect...)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was not "manipulating" to diminish Tulo's 2015 production. I assume any 3rd grader can do the division and turn it into a rate. I'm speaking to the trend of decline and how players gradually get more expensive. Here, I'll do the same without using stats.

 

Player A is tending older, more ineffective, and more expensive. So is Player B. Only Player B is perceived a lot differently than Player A.

The difference you're missing is that both players receive elite pay but only one of them is still elite.

 

I'd rather take four years of the elite player, knowing that they're probably going to decline in years 3/4, than take two years of the formerly elite player, who is full-swing into that decline phase. In Player As case, you're taking the ass-end of a long-term contract and getting minimal production for it. In Player B's case, you're taking the front-end of the contract knowing that you're also getting the ass-end of it... but that's okay because at least you're getting good production at some point of the deal.

 

The Jays got the best part of Reyes' contract. The front half. They moved the horrible back half of the contract (when players almost never perform to their pay grade) to the Rockies in trade and I'm still not sure what kind of black voodoo magic it required to get the Rockies to sign off on that deal.

[jimmer]

 

I was not "manipulating" to diminish Tulo's 2015 production. I assume any 3rd grader can do the division and turn it into a rate. I'm speaking to the trend of decline and how players gradually get more expensive. Here, I'll do the same without using stats.

 

Player A is tending older, more ineffective, and more expensive. So is Player B. Only Player B is perceived a lot differently than Player A.

Player A is two years older, way less productive and was never as good as player B to being with.  Probably why he keeps getting passed around like a hot potato.

[Willihammer]

 

The difference you're missing is that both players receive elite pay but only one of them is still elite.

 

I'd rather take four years of the elite player, knowing that they're probably going to decline in years 3/4, than take two years of the formerly elite player, who is full-swing into that decline phase. In Player B's case, you're taking the ass-end of a long-term contract and getting minimal production for it.

 

The Jays got the best part of Reyes' contract. The front half. They moved the horrible back half of the contract (when players almost never perform to their pay grade) to the Rockies in trade.

And paid $50m in future obligations, a top 100 prospect plus 2 lower prospects to do it.

 

I see the upside for the Jays (the lineup is easily the scariest in baseball - maybe the scariest since... when?). I"m just re-iterating the part of the cost that is, the Jays cannot turn around and do that again. They can't escape the worst part of Tulo's contract.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And paid $50m in future obligations, a top 100 prospect plus 2 lower prospects to do it.

 

I see the upside for the Jays (the lineup is easily the scariest in baseball - maybe the scariest since... when?). I"m just re-iterating the part of the cost that is, the Jays cannot turn around and do that again. They can't escape the worst part of Tulo's contract.

They don't need to escape the worst part of Tulo's contract because they suckered the Rockies into taking the worst part of a more expensive contract to a worse player. That's a net win any way you look at it.

[jimmer]

 

Well, Reyes was locked up through age 34. I mean, the comparison is too easy, they're the same SS at different stages of the same extension.

 

So I'd say its probable Tulo is a decently above average player the next 1-3 years. But you'd fully expect those last 2-3 to be burdensome just as Reyes' are/were, right?

 

(Now watch the Rockies will flip Reyes for a top 100 prospect...)

Only if you assume every player drops the same way, and they have the same type of skill sets. They have way different skills sets.  Much of Reyes value came from speed, which drops much quicker than power. Tulo also only has 4 years left on his contract and he accumulated 5.3 WAR in 2013 and 2014.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Only if you assume every player drops the same way, and they have the same type of skill sets. They have way different skills sets.  Much of Reyes value came from speed, which drops much quicker than power. Tulo also only has 4 years left on his contract and he accumulated 5.3 WAR in 2013 and 2014.

Yeah, I haven't even gotten to the player profile of each guy. Reyes is the type of player that screams DO NOT WANT the moment he starts edging toward 30. He's not disciplined. His contact rate is middling. His power is good but not awesome. His main asset is speed.

 

When speed goes, it goes in a hurry and it never returns. Jose Reyes is a bad player if he can't run and can't play shortstop.

 

On the other hand, Tulowitzki has great power. Decent contact ability. Great discipline. Those players, even when they diminish slightly, can be hidden at third or first and not embarrass the team. They also tend to mature more gracefully, barring injury. Power is the last skill to go and discipline doesn't go away until all the other skills are completely shot.

 

If I'm paying a guy $20m a year from age 30-35, I choose Tulowitzki 14 out of 10 times.

[Willihammer]

 

They don't need to escape the worst part of Tulo's contract because they suckered the Rockies into taking the worst part of a more expensive contract to a worse player. That's a net win any way you look at it.

It's a win, yeah. From a pure contract-swap standpoint, for a team that can afford it like the Jays. If anyone expects Tulo not to decline similarly though, I think they will be disappointed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's a win, yeah. From a pure contract-swap standpoint, for a team that can afford it like the Jays. If anyone expects Tulo not to decline similarly though, I think they will be disappointed.

He may decline similarly but he was a better player to start so it doesn't sting that badly.

[Willihammer]

 

 

Yeah, I haven't even gotten to the player profile of each guy. Reyes is the type of player that screams DO NOT WANT the moment he starts edging toward 30. He's not disciplined. His contact rate is middling. His power is good but not awesome. His main asset is speed.

 

When speed goes, it goes in a hurry and it never returns. Jose Reyes is a bad player if he can't run and can't play shortstop.

 

On the other hand, Tulowitzki has great power. Decent contact ability. Great discipline. Those players, even when they diminish slightly, can be hidden at third or first and not embarrass the team. They also tend to mature more gracefully, barring injury. Power is the last skill to go and discipline doesn't go away until all the other skills are completely shot.

 

If I'm paying a guy $20m a year from age 30-35, I choose Tulowitzki 14 out of 10 times.

Actually there is evidence speed ages better than discipline-power guys. Here's an analysis where Reyes and Tulo are mentioned by name.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves

 

Warning - STATISTICS

[Willihammer]

 

 

He may decline similarly but he was a better player to start so it doesn't sting that badly.

That's debatable.