Odd SP out

[nater79a]

 

Despite what has been said by Molitor, I wouldn't be surprised if they just go 6-man rotation until the All-Star Break and re-evaluate at that time.  No off-days from the 5th until the break. Puts it off for a turn and maybe something happens to make the decision for them.

 

I think this is what will happen.

 

Buy some time. Closer to the trade deadline. Closer to someone pulling up lame. Closer to finding out if the Twins are really in this thing.

[Vanimal46]

I think we're a little too quick to cut the cord on May. He may have gotten hit around last outing, but he's also looked damn impressive with his ability to strike people out and get out of jams. I want him in the rotation for the forseeable future.

 

My pick is Milone. He's pitched a couple of gems in a row and good for him to make this decision difficult. At the end of the day he's just a borderline 5th guy in the rotation with a questionable future on the club. IMO he should be the guy in Rochester waiting for the next injury, struggle on the MLB club.

[nicksaviking]

 

The past several years when our favorite team couldn't possibly compete, the win now guys were thick as mosquitos. I wonder what happened to those guys. Regardless, Ryan is going for the jugular.

 

I don't remember many "Win Now" guys, I do remember many "Fix it Now" guys.  I don't think any of them were "Fix it just for this year" guys.  Ryan's canine teeth haven't come in yet, and this team will barely be able to break the skin with this odd combination of baby teeth and dull and yellowed dentures they are using.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

He's pitched a couple of gems in a row and good for him to make this decision difficult. At the end of the day he's just a borderline 5th guy in the rotation with a questionable future on the club.

 

I need someone to explain to me why everyone hates on Tommy Milone so much. Is it because of what he did over 20 innings last year ona new team with a tumor in his neck? He's relatively young with solid career numbers. Borderline 5th starter? On the Twins?

[Vanimal46]

 

I need someone to explain to me why everyone hates on Tommy Milone so much. Is it because of what he did over 20 innings last year ona new team with a tumor in his neck? He's relatively young with solid career numbers. Borderline 5th starter? On the Twins?

 

There's no hate on Milone in this thread. In fact, most every commenter feels he's earned the spot over May. I am offering up a different opinion.

 

Borderline 5th starter? Yes, that is what we're talking about. Our rotation of Santana, Hughes, Pelf, and Gibson are locks. Which leaves spot #5 open for discussion - this discussion. Welcome to Twins Daily.

[Kwak]

I believe the owner is holding the FO's "feet to the fire" to win (enough) to fully rekindle ticket sales--hence the additional $20+MM of added payroll commitments. I don't believe that a trade will happen before the off-season because the winning "performance standard" is hazy.  Pelfrey is the only trade that could be made--and still (possibly) have his services next season.  Right now his performance would be graded "too high to dispose".  I think May will be sent to the bullpen not just to make space but to bolster the pen (it needs help!) and keep May on the Active Roster (the rotation may need help too!).

[spsdrock]

Hughes will have a injury and santana will take over.  They will just play the merri go round of injuries on the SP.  Until they find someone to take Pelfrey off our hands. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Borderline 5th starter? Yes, that is what we're talking about. Our rotation of Santana, Hughes, Pelf, and Gibson are locks. Which leaves spot #5 open for discussion - this discussion. Welcome to Twins Daily.

Makes sense. Thanks. I just think the idea of 'locks' in a rotation of Hughes, Pelfrey, Gibson, and May is sort of ludicrous. Milone's had every bit as good of a career as any of them.

 

But I like all these guys. Let's just roll with six until someone ceases to surpass expectations.

[stringer bell]

I'd say that Milone's numbers are better than "borderline 5th starter".  He's a lifetime 99 ERA+ pitcher (better than Hughes, Santana, or Nolasco for that matter) and this year's numbers are the best on the team, although only 53.2 innings.  He was terrible last year in five late starts, but his BB% is back to normal, and he continues to sit at about 6 Ks per game. He's allowed less than a hit per inning pitched. 

 

Milone doesn't throw hard, but he isn't Jamey Moyer either. He is only 28 years old and under team control for several more years. Since there aren't any other lefties in the rotation, I think his leftiness is an advantage as well.

[USAFChief]

Where is it written in stone that Santana immediately rejoins the rotation the day he's eligible?

[jorgenswest]

Since 2012, 75 starting pitchers have pitched at least 500 innings.The Twins have four of those pitchers. The top performer is Kershaw with an ERA+ of 164.

 

Milone    47th 99 ERA+

Hughes  51st 97 

Santana 57th 97

Nolasco  68th 87

 

A pitcher's job is to prevent runs. Over a large sample the size often used for projections, Milone has prevented fewer runs than Santana, Hughes and Nolasco. Milone is also younger than the other three. 

 

How is that the performance of a borderline number 5 pitcher? It doesn't really matter if it is borderline number 5 performance. The others would need to be described similarly. 

 

 

[drjim]

 

This team has one of the worst offenses, below average defense, perhaps the worst bullpen in the league and a group of starters that are number #3s at best, and absolute time bombs at worst.  The games are fun to watch and I hope they keep winning, but the future is not now, and any move to stunt or impair the future for this year is a huge mistake.

 

Not that this is wrong but this paragraph made me chuckle a little. With all this going on, how the Twins still the 5th best team in the AL at the moment.

[Blackjack]

 

Where is it written in stone that Santana immediately rejoins the rotation the day he's eligible?

 

After spending that kind of money, if he is healthy, what do suppose the odds are that they won't start him right away??  2%?? Or less?

[DaveW]

As much as I hate to say it, I think the best course of action would be to send May to the pen as I think he could actually become a real nice asset in the pen for the stretch run. Santana isn't going to go in the pen, so there really is no point in bringing that up as it's not realistic. Hughes and Gibson are certainly not going to the pen as well.

 

While I do think Pelfrey could be lights out in the bullpen with his fastball, you just dont send a guy rocking a 3.06 ERA in the rotation to the pen.

 

Milone looks like a completely different pitcher, in his last 4 starts he has a 1.73 ERA and is actually striking out guys at a 7.6 k/9 clip.

 

I think the move is you put May in the pen for now, and bring him back up and switch spots with whoever struggles the most between Milone and Pelfrey down the road.

 

 

[Craig Arko]

 

After spending that kind of money, if he is healthy, what do suppose the odds are that they won't start him right away??  2%?? Or less?

He threw 97 pitches in his second rehab start. Sounds like it's at least printed in Silly Putty.

[DaveW]

 

 

After spending that kind of money, if he is healthy, what do suppose the odds are that they won't start him right away??  2%?? Or less?

I'd say pretty much 0%

 

The money they paid for him and more importantly his track record of 10+ years of success in the major leagues has pretty much earned him the spot.

 

I like May and think he will be a solid part of this team now and in the future, but let's not pretend the guy has been lights out all year or something, of the 5 current starting pitchers May has the worst ERA (results) and is throwing the least amount of innings per start of the 5. As much as it sucks, its the correct move currently.

[jun]

 

Pelfrey has not been lights out.  The guy has a 4.3 K/9.  That is beyond absurd and his success is clearly not sustainable unless we jump into our time machine and head back to 1876.  May has been better than him lately, putting the rookie in the pen or AAA instead of moving a vet smells like country club antics to me.

 

This team has one of the worst offenses, below average defense, perhaps the worst bullpen in the league and a group of starters that are number #3s at best, and absolute time bombs at worst.  The games are fun to watch and I hope they keep winning, but the future is not now, and any move to stunt or impair the future for this year is a huge mistake.

Could you please tell me what supports your claim that May has been better than Pelfrey lately?

Performance is what matters the most.

Pelfrey is still the best starter on this team. Although Milone is catching up lately.

[DaveW]

 

Could you please tell me what supports your claim that May has been better than Pelfrey lately?

Performance is what matters the most.

Pelfrey is still the best starter on this team. Although Milone is catching up lately.

He hasn't been better than Pelfrey and no amount of cherry picking two or three starts here or there will change that.

 

Pelfrey has an ERA+ of 132, May has an ERA+ of 87, has given up 9 more ER, 2 more HR etc in 11 innings less pitched.

 

People will point to FIP which is a flawed stat anyways and say that May has been pitching "better", but then will conveniently ignore the fact that Nolasco by far has the best FIP on the team.

[Dantes929]

 

After spending that kind of money, if he is healthy, what do suppose the odds are that they won't start him right away??  2%?? Or less?

If I order a brand new expensive driver and while waiting for delivery, hit long and straight drives with my old G15 I will probably try out my new expensive driver even though the smart thing would be to continue to hit my old driver until I am no longer hitting it long and straight.    In this analogy the new driver is :Santana and the old driver is the rest of the rotation.    The smart thing would be to put Santana in the pen.   People do not always (or even often) do the smart thing.    

 

Of course the upside is that if Santana actually is currently one of the top 5 starters and the Twins happen to pick the worst starter for him to replace the rotation will be better.     The down side is if Santana is currently the worst starter and the Twins pick the best starter for him to replace we have spent a lot of money to downgrade our rotation.

 

.    Currently I have a good feeling that any of our rotation has a strong likelihood of keeping the team in the game even with the sputtering offense and I don't think it should be messed with right now.    6 man rotation would be ok except there is a reasonable theory that Gibson does better without too much rest.  

[Halsey Hall]

 

I would actually like to see Pelfrey get traded for an arm to shore up the bullpen.  Perhaps like a Tony Watson from the Pirates or Justin Grimm from the Cubs.  

Why?  I don't understand that thinking, enlighten me. 

[beckmt]

May has never been thru pressure before.  It is hard, but send him down until something shakes out.  Nolasco's injury came at a good time, since him spot in the ongoing rotation was not a sure thing.  The bad part is that it will be hard to trade him this offseason, without giving him away. 

[brvama]

Interesting conversation. Isn't it great that we have this delimma? My thoughts are you keep Hughes, Gibson, Pelfrey, and Milone in the rotation when Santana gets off his suspension. I'm assuming that the FO feels he's ready to contribute. Mays goes to Rochester to work on some things and keeps stretched out. Having Pelf and Milone on the Twins gives them much more value in the trade market.

[nicksaviking]

He hasn't been better than Pelfrey and no amount of cherry picking two or three starts here or there will change that.

 

Pelfrey has an ERA+ of 132, May has an ERA+ of 87.

Right, but I said lately. Why would the decision be based off of April stats? May has been equal if not better in June. It would be foolish to put his development on hold so we can play make believe with Mike Pelfrey in 2015.

 

This team doesn't have a difference maker in the rotation, there's no one to run out there in a game one, or more worrisome, a play in game. It's a long shot, but with his ability for a plus K rate and a hugely improved walk rate, May might be able to get close to being that guy in 2016, heck if we want to be optimistic, perhaps by the end of this year. Pelfrey doesn't have that ability, he won't even be here next year.

[TheLeviathan]

I appreciate Pelfrey's effort tonight in helping keep May in the rotation.

[USAFChief]

 

I appreciate Pelfrey's effort tonight in helping keep May in the rotation.

By getting out of the first inning, he's already outpitched May's last effort.

[stringer bell]

I didn't get to predict it, but I will now. Someone on the Twins will hit his first home run of the season in this series.

[TheLeviathan]

 

By getting out of the first inning, he's already outpitched May's last effort.

 

That's swell, doesn't change the fact that May has much better odds of maintaining his success going forward compared than Pelfrey.  Hopefully May is lights out and the right guy stays in for this team.

[USAFChief]

 

That's swell, doesn't change the fact that May has much better odds of maintaining his success going forward compared than Pelfrey.  Hopefully May is lights out and the right guy stays in for this team.

Well, I'd call that an opinion, rather than a fact.

 

And while I'd agree May is probably the better bet going forward, it's no sure thing, and it's pretty generous to describe May's performance to date "success."

 

Let's hope May actually HAS some success going forward, though.

[stringer bell]

I'd feel worse about Pelfry's outing, if more balls were hard hit. Now he gives up a rope to Bruce and another blooper. Control seems to be the issue. Three walks and pitching from behind are the problem.

[drjim]

Pelfrey was certainly due for a clunker. Bad timing for the team considering they are scuffling and also had a short outing 2 days ago.

 

Obviously should have sold high!