Odd SP out

[Twodogs]

 

The comments of mine you object to are all based on a crucial distinction you aren't recognizing.

 

Decisions are based on expected future results, not actual future results. With respect to expected future results, one should always use xFIP in the situation under discussion. 

 

Using the correct approach does not always pay off. In hold 'em poker, being dealt 2 aces justifies going all-in without hesitation, but a loss can still easily occur. Does that make it valid to fold those 2 aces when raised?

 

It is a certainty that you should give yourself the best chance to succeed. That was my point. You have agreed with all the underlying facts, except for holding out that using an inferior method is still justifiable. That's not a position that can be reconciled with good decision making.

Couple of things here.  For the most part you and other people here are advocating May for the betterment of the Twins future, when in reality no matter what metrics we look at or even invent no one is going to be able to predict the Twins future ever.  Now realizing that Buxton may get injured every year, May may blow out his elbow 3 times over the next 5 years and the Twins could go through a drought like they did in the early to late 90's and late 70's to mid 80's and no metric would have any control over any of those things.  The point being is that the Twins need to win now, obviously with out trading away top farm talent because some will or may want to do that or they may think that I am willing to do that which I would be against.  I am of the thinking that the Twins need to go all in with what they have however.

 

My second thinking is that what gives the Twins the best chance for success in a situation like this??  Putting the Twins hopes for this year on a guy who will pitch once every 5 - 6 days in a starting rotation or putting our best arms, for now in the bull-pen which gets used every day for the most part??  I think the Twins need to put the guys into the bullpen who are going to make the bull pen stronger, because it wont matter who is starting every 5th day as if they pitch good they will 90 percent of the time go 6-7 innings is all and the bull pen will be relied upon every day.  So what gives the Twins the best chance to win in the forseeable future, some pitcher who will go once every 5th day or someone who can help the bullpen go out there every day.  What gives the Twins the best chance to succeed now?

[Twins33]

 

My guy Taylor Rogers never gets any love

For me, he's the next Brian Duensing. I expect him to be a better version though.

[70charger]

 

The predictive value of various statistical measures has been evaluated empirically. The lack of predictive value for short-term ERA is absolutely a fact. No case against this fact has ever been presented. If you can do so, or point to where someone else has, then by all means do so. Otherwise your objections are per se invalid.

 

I was also only commenting on one aspect of the May v. Pelfrey v. Milone comparison. Even if Pelfrey or Milone did have a performance argument, it would be completely outweighed by May's long-term value, which is best served by keeping him in the rotation.

 

No rational case can be made to remove May from the rotation. Some questions in baseball are subjective and impossible to resolve definitely. This is not such a question. Any conclusion other than May staying in the rotation is erroneous, period.

 

You are basically the definition of "naive empiricist." The sad part is, as much as your "methods," such as they are, are abhorrent misuses of statistics, I agree with your conclusion. May should stay in the rotation.

[drivlikejehu]

 

You are basically the definition of "naive empiricist." The sad part is, as much as your "methods," such as they are, are abhorrent misuses of statistics, I agree with your conclusion. May should stay in the rotation.

 

Complete misunderstanding of my statements. My logic is based on the limitations of available statistics, rather than any excessive reliance on them.

[d-mac]

I don't think we need to defend May's worthiness with such hostility.  Some people value past actual results over indicators of future results.  It doesn't make their opinion illegitimate.

Ummmmm, when we are debating a move that requires us to extrapolate future performance it certainly does. Past performance is never an indicator of future performance. The only reasonable way to extrapolate future performance of pitching is by expecting a regression to the mean that is determined by the process of making outs. ERA, while a great marker for past outcomes, tells us nothing about the process of making outs, thus has ZERO relavence when trying determine future performance.

 

Just because everybody is entitled to their own opinion, it does not mean every opinion is logically sound. Nor does the previous zeitgeist around baseball for the past century, valuing things like seniority and past outcomes mean that what the Twins have done is correct or the opinions of those supporting the move of May to the bullpen are correct.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Just because everybody is entitled to their own opinion, it does not mean every opinion is logically sound. Nor does the previous zeitgeist around baseball for the past century, valuing things like seniority and past outcomes mean that what the Twins have done is correct or the opinions of those supporting the move of May to the bullpen are correct.

 

When we are talking about projecting future results there is more than one right way to do so and no limitation on what stats one can consider in doing so.  And plenty of ways to be wrong with any choice you make.

 

If it wasn't, you should get out of projecting future results from Twins starters and head to Vegas now.

[drivlikejehu]

 

When we are talking about projecting future results there is more than one right way to do so and no limitation on what stats one can consider in doing so.  

 

You admitted one way was better than another. Still waiting for an explanation of how using the inferior approach makes sense, following that detour where you tried to make it about whether my use of "irrational" was correct. Now that the dictionary proved me right there, please follow up for me on the substance.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You admitted one way was better than another. 

 

I agree with you that one is better.  Our agreement does not make it universal law nor the only rational means of doing so. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

I agree with you that one is better.  Our agreement does not make it universal law nor the only rational means of doing so. 

 

On what basis would an argument be made that small-sample ERA is better than xFIP? What is the counter-point? I still have not heard a single statement that would support such a position.

 

If there is no basis for using ERA, particularly in light of the strong arguments against using it, then I cannot agree it would be rational to do so. You have not come close to justifying how it possibly could be. 

[TheLeviathan]

You're choosing not to see the point that about a dozen people are trying to explain to you.  That's where the conversation should end.  I'm not going to waste any more time trying to help you see it.

[drivlikejehu]

 

You're choosing not to see the point that about a dozen people are trying to explain to you.  That's where the conversation should end.  I'm not going to waste any more time trying to help you see it.

 

There is no point. There is just a bunch of posters repeating incorrect statements without any kind of support.

[USAFChief]

 

There is no point. There is just a bunch of posters repeating incorrect statements without any kind of support.

Francisco Liriano has a lower XFIP than both Felix Hernandez and Madison Bumgarner.

 

If you could have one of the three, which would you want from here on out for the rest of 2015?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Francisco Liriano has a lower XFIP than both Felix Hernandez and Madison Bumgarner.

 

If you could have one of the three, which would you want from here on out for the rest of 2015?

 

He has a lower ERA than both of them, too.

 

My decision would be based on who I expected to perform the best for the remainder of the season. To do that, I would consider their defense-independent performances this year in light of their career history. Liriano would be dinged for durability and inconsistency, for instance.

 

The closer the pitchers are in ability, the harder a decision it becomes. In the case of May v. Pelfrey, it's very straightforward - May is better. The gap between their numbers is so great that no deep analysis is required.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Heh.

[USAFChief]

 

He has a lower ERA than both of them, too.

 

My decision would be based on who I expected to perform the best for the remainder of the season. To do that, I would consider their defense-independent performances this year in light of their career history. Liriano would be dinged for durability and inconsistency, for instance.

 

The closer the pitchers are in ability, the harder a decision it becomes. In the case of May v. Pelfrey, it's very straightforward - May is better. The gap between their numbers is so great that no deep analysis is required.

So...I'll take that to mean you'd use things other than XFIP in making your decision.

 

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

So...I'll take that to mean you'd use things other than XFIP in making your decision.

 

Of course. And I never said otherwise. I said I would not use small-sample ERA. And, in the example you provided, I did not consider small-sample ERA. What is the inconsistency?

[Twodogs]

 

Francisco Liriano has a lower XFIP than both Felix Hernandez and Madison Bumgarner.

 

If you could have one of the three, which would you want from here on out for the rest of 2015?

Nice, example

[Linus]

There is no point. There is just a bunch of posters repeating incorrect statements without any kind of support.

You two need to get a room and spare the sane from your pain.