2016 Election Thread

[Shane Wahl]

 

NBC News wrote a depressingly hilarious article on all the things that went wrong with the Trump campaign in the 24 hour period yesterday.

I was concerned Trump would pull his head out and run a straight campaign, moving to center in the process.

Yeah. Egomaniacal lunatics don't do that. What (somehow) brought Trump to prominence in the primaries is going to crush him under the bright lights of a general.

 

If you look at the polls leading up until last week, many of them weren't reaching 90 percent even with including Johnson and Stein. This meant that 10 plus percent were legitimately undecided. Usually these people, being moderates concerned about national security OR upper middle class to upper class people ultimately concerned about their bottom line, move to the GOP at the end. Clearly, the Democratic party knew this, hence what they did at the convention. And it worked . . . . along with Trump just falling over himself. She is moving toward double digit leads in national polls now.

[Shane Wahl]

And I apologize if someone has said this here recently, but I really do think that that Trump started out like most of the GOPers do . . . looking for monetary gains from books down the road. Sarah Palin did well with that. But he also has more . . . whatever the entire Trump brand is, it could benefit from exposure. Well, he would have been pleased with a two-million person market. He has a 50-million person market now. This is what he ultimately wants. There is just no way that he WANTS to serve as President.

[nicksaviking]

 

My initial 347 prediction for Hillary is climbing, climbing, climbing. Even Georgia and Arizona look to be in play right now. It could get close to 400.

 

That's a good prediction if things stay the status quo.

 

I think there's an equal chance things spiral even further out of control. A route of 450+ didn't used to be that uncommon. Seems to me the more pushback he gets, the more awful the things are that come out of his mouth, and the way folks from his party are bailing on him, it might only be a matter of time before does or says something irrecoverable to all the party faithful.

[TheLeviathan]

Man, I want to believe you guys but never underestimate the stupidity of the average person.  Or how gullible they are.

 

I think all of us rational people see this man imploding even more than we could've predicted and yet....I just can't write him off.  Brexit should continue to be a lesson for us - don't minimize what he's tapped into.

[PseudoSABR]

A new McClatchy-Marist poll shows Clinton up by 15 points head to head, and 14 points in a four way race.  Her lead in the same poll a month ago was 3 points. 

 

This is just one poll, but it gives further indication of just how poorly Trump might preform this November. 

[jimmer]

Clinton is going to absolutely destroy him.

[ashbury]

Clinton is going to absolutely destroy him.

Slow down, Parnelli Jones. There's 3 months to go, and after her polls go up a little more this may represent the high water mark.

[jimmer]

 

Slow down, Parnelli Jones. There's 3 months to go, and after her polls go up a little more this may represent the high water mark.

total destruction.  might end up being the largest victory in many, many elections.

[TheLeviathan]

People thought Brexit was a joke until it happened too.

[ashbury]

People thought Brexit was a joke until it happened too.

So was the Parnelli reference.

[stringer bell]

I think it ends up Obama-Romney close. 5-7% margin for Hill, with her basically winning the same states that Obama did in 2012. If the margin widens, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona turn blue. If it is really lopsided, I'd like to see Clinton make a run for Texas, the only reliably red large state.

[Badsmerf]

I wouldn't say Texas is the most reliably red state anymore. There are enough people pushing hard for change in Texas, it's only a matter of time it turns blue. States that i think will be red forever are Mississippi, Alabama and other low educated, segregated, highly religious states. Texas is losing its ability to pass laws which alienate a particular segment of the population. After spending a week in Austin this spring, i believe there is hope after all.

[DaveW]

Oklahoma is the most reliable red state there is. At least Mississippi and Alamaba have a little bit of diversity. Oklahoma is the only state that had every single county go red last time.

 

It's a hell hole.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I think it ends up Obama-Romney close. 5-7% margin for Hill, with her basically winning the same states that Obama did in 2012. If the margin widens, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona turn blue. If it is really lopsided, I'd like to see Clinton make a run for Texas, the only reliably red large state.

Obama won by 3.9% in 2012.

Obama won by 7.2% in 2008.

Bush won by 2.4% in 2004.

Bush 'won' by -.5% in 2000.

Clinton won by 8.5% in 1996 (Perot got 8.4%)

Clinton won by 5.6% in 1992 (Perot got 18.9%)

Bush won by 7.8% in 1988.

Reagan won by 18.2% in 1984.

Reagan won by 9.7 % in 1980 (Lucey got 6.6%)

(source wiki pages; too lazy to link to each one; this atlas thingy is fun to play with though).

 

I'm not sure why people are being so conservative with the margin that Trump could lose by, given the recent history of the actual margins.  Romney v. Obama is the third closest election since the 1980. Five of the last nine elections have been decided by more than seven percent, with seemingly non-crazy options.  

[PseudoSABR]

 

I wouldn't say Texas is the most reliably red state anymore. There are enough people pushing hard for change in Texas, it's only a matter of time it turns blue. States that i think will be red forever are Mississippi, Alabama and other low educated, segregated, highly religious states. Texas is losing its ability to pass laws which alienate a particular segment of the population. After spending a week in Austin this spring, i believe there is hope after all.

I tend to agree. I think Texas emergent Hispanic population, libertarian streak, and Austin (and other urban center) liberal stronghold(s) will push Texas away from Reliably Republican sooner rather than later.   Though probably not this election with Clinton.  I could see Johnson doing very well in states like Texas, Arizona, Utah, and Montana, enough so to give even Clinton a chance of winning them.   

[twinsnorth49]

People thought Brexit was a joke until it happened too.

You think the Nationalistic, rural vote is enough to carry Trump?

 

The Remain side should have seen Brexit as a possibility but failed to recognise the overriding factor to English traditionalists. Are you saying the Dems are naive to a particular will of the majority?

[TheLeviathan]

 

You think the Nationalistic, rural vote is enough to carry Trump?

The Remain side should have seen Brexit as a possibility but failed to recognise the overriding factor to English traditionalists. Are you saying the Dems are naive to a particular will of the majority?

 

Maybe.  Here's what I am confident in:

 

Trump's supporters will be at the polls casting their vote.  I can pretty much 100% guarantee he'll march out almost all of them.

 

Hillary's supporters?  Much, much less sure.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'm not sure why people are being so conservative with the margin that Trump could lose by, given the recent history of the actual margins.  Romney v. Obama is the third closest election since the 1980. Five of the last nine elections have been decided by more than seven percent, with seemingly non-crazy options.  

 

That seems like a really weak argument.  If we bump that to 8 percent I could argue 6 of the last 9 have been decided by less than 8%.  Is the difference between 7 and 8 percent the difference between being a landslide and a close election?

 

Most of these have been very close, only Reagan's win really stands out.

[PseudoSABR]

 

That seems like a really weak argument.  If we bump that to 8 percent I could argue 6 of the last 9 have been decided by less than 8%.  Is the difference between 7 and 8 percent the difference between being a landslide and a close election?

 

Most of these have been very close, only Reagan's win really stands out.

I didn't pick seven percent at random or because it benefited my argument.   I used the quoted upper limit to demonstrate the conservativeness of such a prediction.  

 

The point isn't that seven or eight percent is a lot, or a landslide, rather that under conditions that seemed relatively uncontroversial in comparison, long-successful, nationally well-liked politicians lost by such a margin. 

 

The tea leaves, now, suggest Trump could lose by a landslide, even historic margins.  I acknowledge that there's three months left, but I can't recall a single candidate (in my lifetime) being behind in the polls so soon after the conventions without significant non-campaign, non-candidate factors in play.  

 

Of course, a disaster or a scandal could change everything; but it looks far more bleak for Trump than it ever did for Romney or McCain...

[ashbury]

I wouldn't say Texas is the most reliably red state anymore. There are enough people pushing hard for change in Texas, it's only a matter of time it turns blue. States that i think will be red forever are Mississippi, Alabama and other low educated, segregated, highly religious states. Texas is losing its ability to pass laws which alienate a particular segment of the population. After spending a week in Austin this spring, i believe there is hope after all.

Austin was an oasis in the Texas desert when I visited there 40 years ago, too. I think you need to spend a week in Waxahachie or Lubbock or Amarillo before determining a trend.

 

That said, I do recognize the demographic shift is slowly in the Democrats' direction, assuming the parties keep their current ideologies for long enough.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I didn't pick seven percent at random or because it benefited my argument.   I used the quoted upper limit to demonstrate the conservativeness of such a prediction.  

 

The point isn't that seven or eight percent is a lot, or a landslide, rather that under conditions that seemed relatively uncontroversial in comparison, long-successful, nationally well-liked politicians lost by such a margin. 

 

Right, but at the same time you bump the percentage up a mere 1 point and you could argue the exact opposite of your point.  It just seems really flimsy.

 

I agree, though, Trump could lose by double digits.  I also think he's got a decent chance of winning.

[DaveW]

I agree, though, Trump could lose by double digits. I also think he's got a decent chance of winning.

Way to hedge your bets

[ashbury]

Way to hedge your bets

It's August. Nate Silver's site has Trump's Polls-Plus chance still at 24%. One interpretation is that once every four tries, a Black Swan event sweeps him in. Silver's statistical chops should not be dismissed, IMO. Bets this far out should always be hedged.

[Squirrel]

Is it too late in the process for the GOP to choose another candidate? Or would Trump have to pull out? I think it's too late for them to put up an Independent, which a friend of mine thinks they should. He won't for Trump and doesn't want to vote for anyone else running.

[USAFChief]

Austin was an oasis in the Texas desert when I visited there 40 years ago, too. I think you need to spend a week in Waxahachie or Lubbock or Amarillo before determining a trend.

 

That said, I do recognize the demographic shift is slowly in the Democrats' direction, assuming the parties keep their current ideologies for long enough.

Yup. Don't confuse Austin with Texas.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, all the voter suppression laws being overturned makes me feel better......

[nicksaviking]

 

Well, all the voter suppression laws being overturned makes me feel better......

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa, my (red) state calls them voter protection laws.

 

Have I been misled?!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa, my (red) state calls them voter protection laws.

 

Have I been misled?!

 

I almost called them that with the strikethru.

[Shane Wahl]

New Georgia polls shows a Clinton lead both in the head-to-head and the four-way race. That is crazy. And it shows that North Carolina should be a lock. We are approaching a 400 electoral vote count. I beat Silver in 2008 and it is insanity to put Trump's odds at 23 percent or whatever. It is at 1 percent.

[TheLeviathan]

 

New Georgia polls shows a Clinton lead both in the head-to-head and the four-way race. That is crazy. And it shows that North Carolina should be a lock. We are approaching a 400 electoral vote count. I beat Silver in 2008 and it is insanity to put Trump's odds at 23 percent or whatever. It is at 1 percent.

 

Then you're just deliberately ignoring a variety of factors.  

 

Voting for Trump can be utterly irrational and indefensible.  We can all believe and accept that.  And it changes nothing about his odds.