2016 Election Thread

[biggentleben]

Another issue is that those people in the less-populated areas may represent a small percentage of the population, but they show up on election day in droves. I was astounded recently to hear that a local issue-specific special election in the middle of the spring drew over 80% voter turnout in my very rural county. That means a lot of people had to drive into town on a Tuesday in what was prime corn planting season in order to cast their ballot, and they found a way to make it work. Those people speak loudly in the voting booth, whether they're educated on the issues or simply voting their party of dedication.

[TheLeviathan]

And that's why no one should write off Trump.  Democrats scramble every election to get their base out to the polls, but in rural and remote areas - people show up come snow, sleet, or hail.  And many, many of those voters are voting Trump this year and they won't show up in a lot of polling.  But they'll show up at the polls.

[Badsmerf]

Levi I'm with on not counting on it being over until it's over. I still think it should be a monumental blow out, but that doesn't mean out will be. I can see Clinton voters becoming complacent and not making it out to vote because it was inconvenient and Clinton is ahead by so much it's a sure thing. I almost don't think it can worse for trump.... but I'm sadisticly hoping it does.

[Badsmerf]

Why can't i edit on my stupid ipad? So frustrating.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Levi I'm with on not counting on it being over until it's over. I still think it should be a monumental blow out, but that doesn't mean out will be. I can see Clinton voters becoming complacent and not making it out to vote because it was inconvenient and Clinton is ahead by so much it's a sure thing. I almost don't think it can worse for trump.... but I'm sadisticly hoping it does.

I think both you and Levi have valid ideas about the accuracy of polling but you're missing one GIANT component of Trump... I think you're conflating the GOP with the rural white vote.

 

Together, they're a powerful force in American politics but if we've seen anything from the past two weeks, they are not the same thing.

 

Trump has turned pure red states such as Utah and Arizona back into the mix. He has broken what was once a party of unity (largely based on the rural white vote) into a fragmented mess of indecision and argument.

 

Whatever Trump gains in "uncounted" voters is likely to be offset and then some by the discord he's causing within the GOP. For example, the GOP once counted Mormons as one of their most ardent supporters (something like a 90/10 split) and now they're not even lukewarm to Trump, they're vehemently against his nomination.

 

All those voters... They'll either turn up to vote for Johnson or they'll stay away from the polls entirely.

 

I predict the GOP will lose badly all the way down the ticket this election if Trump continues this fiasco. There's a reason why the GOP is wondering if they need to supplant the man. It's not only about the presidency, it's about whether they'll lose a significant portion of Congress.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think both you and Levi have valid ideas about the accuracy of polling but you're missing one GIANT component of Trump... I think you're conflating the GOP with the rural white vote.

 

Together, they're a powerful force in American politics but if we've seen anything from the past two weeks, they are not the same thing.

 

 

Sure, but there is a tremendous overlap.  The worry here is that a combination of this base, plus other similar voters who may not usually turn up are greater than the Democrat's turnout.  

 

My point is basically this - the base that is going to keep Trump close is more reliable than the base that Hillary is counting on.  After that it's going to come down to how many of the Republicans that have fractured are going to despise Hillary enough to swallow their pride.  

 

What's really sad is that, somehow, the Democrats have been totally unable to reach a large group of people that should be on their side, but aren't.  (Much like Republicans repeatedly screw up the Hispanic vote that should be theirs)

[Badsmerf]

If i was betting Brock, I'd very that trump gets blown out and losses by more than anyone in history. I also would have bet against him winning the gop nomination. I just don't think anyone should feel comfortable as long as he is on the ticket.

[DaveW]

Trump won't lose more than anyone in history.

 

Oklahoma, South Dakota, Montana, Nebraska surely won't go blue.

 

Funny enough I lived in 3 of those states :-/

[DaveW]

If you want to see why the GOP party is in big trouble moving forward, look no further then this headline:

 

Marco Rubio: women with Zika should not be allowed abortions

[Shane Wahl]

 

No he didn't it has trump at 16% and 23% in the two polls and poll plus calculations.

7:1 odds is my personal feeling on it.

All it takes is an economic recession or Hillary to have a medical issue to get trump back into the ball game.

Check that again.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Trump won't lose more than anyone in history.

Oklahoma, South Dakota, Montana, Nebraska surely won't go blue.

Funny enough I lived in 3 of those states :-/

Montana is fairly libertarian; I think they have/had a Democratic governor currently/recently.  Obama won an electoral district in Nebraska in 2008 (weird rules that Nebraska isn't winner take all).

[Shane Wahl]

There was a significant shift in the electorate because of the MoveOn/Dean/Obama 50 state strategy. Virginia and Colorado are now virtual locks for the Dems. This means a total restructuring for the GOP and they have not figured it out. North Carolina is leaning Clinton and now Georgia, Arizona, and Missouri are battleground states. Indiana will be next. Utah is slowly becoming a battleground state.My 347 prediciton for Clinton is now a minimum. 

 

[DaveW]

Check that again.

Just did, trump is at 16.6%

 

I would screenshot it if I weren't on a phone

[DaveW]

There was a significant shift in the electorate because of the MoveOn/Dean/Obama 50 state strategy. Virginia and Colorado are now virtual locks for the Dems. This means a total restructuring for the GOP and they have not figured it out. North Carolina is leaning Clinton and now Georgia, Arizona, and Missouri are battleground states. Indiana will be next. Utah is slowly becoming a battleground state.My 347 prediciton for Clinton is now a minimum.

Indiana and Missouri are virtual locks for the GOP this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure, but there is a tremendous overlap.  The worry here is that a combination of this base, plus other similar voters who may not usually turn up are greater than the Democrat's turnout.  

 

My point is basically this - the base that is going to keep Trump close is more reliable than the base that Hillary is counting on.  After that it's going to come down to how many of the Republicans that have fractured are going to despise Hillary enough to swallow their pride.  

 

What's really sad is that, somehow, the Democrats have been totally unable to reach a large group of people that should be on their side, but aren't.  (Much like Republicans repeatedly screw up the Hispanic vote that should be theirs)

Oh yeah, tons of overlap but what used to be more solidly Republican demographics are broken this election. Two obvious groups are Catholics and Mormons but there are others as well.

 

While I whole-heartedly agree that the historical GOP base is more reliable than the Democrat base, I'm not sure that will be the case this election. If Trump sticks with the election, I think there will be massive no-shows in what was once the foundation of the GOP. Sure, Trump may make up some of that ground in the CrazyTown demographic he's been courting but I don't see anything better than the two canceling each other out.

 

If Trump continues down this path of alienating the GOP, I think this election is going to be chaotic and the Democrats will win down the ballot (I think that's what scares the GOP most right now... I suspect they've all but given up on the White House at this point).

 

Still time for Trump to salvage some pieces, though... But given his arrogance, I don't think that will happen.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If i was betting Brock, I'd very that trump gets blown out and losses by more than anyone in history. I also would have bet against him winning the gop nomination. I just don't think anyone should feel comfortable as long as he is on the ticket.

 

Right, I scoffed at him the entire nomination process and look where we are.  He consistently out-performed polling and consistently turned out huge vote totals.  

 

If I had to bet, I'd bet he loses the election.  But I've long learned my lesson this year about betting on the election.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Just did, trump is at 16.6%

I would screenshot it if I weren't on a phone

 

I was referring to this

 

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/trumps-crashing-and-burning-fivethirtyeight-projects-clinton-has-929-chance-winning

[Shane Wahl]

 

Indiana and Missouri are virtual locks for the GOP this year.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mo/missouri_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6009.html

[Shane Wahl]

And somehow even with three major universities and Gannett-owned Indy Star, there is a total lack of polling in Indiana, even though the governor's race is wide open, Evan Bayh is back in a Senate race, etc.

 

If Clinton puts any resources into Indiana, she might win it. 

[Shane Wahl]

Comparing the GOP primary's unpredictability . . . .when it was just a clown car. . .  to the general election against Clinton doesn't work.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Comparing the GOP primary's unpredictability . . . .when it was just a clown car. . .  to the general election against Clinton doesn't work.

Yeah, this is my feeling as well. The GOP base - the people who participate in the primaries - have so tightly strapped themselves onto the front of the train heading to CrazyTown that I think we're putting too much stock into the rest of America being equally insane.

 

I struggle to buy into the idea that there are huge swathes of untapped American votes that are buying into Trump's platform. I think he already tapped that card in the primaries.

 

And now he's alienating pretty much everyone else. I expect the GOP to come around a bit as the election nears but I can't see a situation where Trump recovers 100% of the traditional GOP vote. I keep bringing up Mormons - a relatively small subset of the GOP base - but they're one of many and I'm watching their vitriol first-hand. I lived in Utah in middle school and I'm still friends with many Mormons on Facebook.

 

To a person, they don't only dislike Trump, they despise the man. Out of a half dozen Mormons I've seen talk about the man, every one of them has mentioned how they refuse to vote for him and they're exploring third party options (or even, gasp, Hillary Clinton).

 

If Trump has alienated even 10%, much less 20%, of the traditional GOP base, this election is going to be a landslide.

 

This entire situation is such a mess.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yeah, this is my feeling as well. The GOP base - the people who participate in the primaries - have so tightly strapped themselves onto the front of the train heading to CrazyTown that I think we're putting too much stock into the rest of America being equally insane.

 

I struggle to buy into the idea that there are huge swathes of untapped American votes that are buying into Trump's platform. I think he already tapped that card in the primaries.

 

The rest of America doesn't have to be equally insane.  43% of eligible Americans didn't vote in 2012, that's a huge number of untapped resources for a campaign.  Will they come out?  

 

I don't know.  But again, if I were applying rationality to these proceedings I would've never thought Trump would be at this stage either.  

 

And really, we're talking about enough first time voters in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina to swing this election.  The vast majority of us in the vast majority of states don't really matter.  And the rust belt, at least hypothetically, might be a really appealing place for Trump's narrative.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A fair point. The rust belt is appealing to Trump and can swing an election... But given how much Kasich and Trump hate each other, that's going to be a tough sell for voters.

 

Again, I see a lot of this cancelling itself out because Trump is arrogant and not very bright. Had he simply not declared thermonuclear war on Kasich, his chances would be so much better.

 

That's an extremely low bar to set but Trump can't even manage that much.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Yeah, this is my feeling as well. The GOP base - the people who participate in the primaries - have so tightly strapped themselves onto the front of the train heading to CrazyTown that I think we're putting too much stock into the rest of America being equally insane.

 

I struggle to buy into the idea that there are huge swathes of untapped American votes that are buying into Trump's platform. I think he already tapped that card in the primaries.

 

And now he's alienating pretty much everyone else. I expect the GOP to come around a bit as the election nears but I can't see a situation where Trump recovers 100% of the traditional GOP vote. I keep bringing up Mormons - a relatively small subset of the GOP base - but they're one of many and I'm watching their vitriol first-hand. I lived in Utah in middle school and I'm still friends with many Mormons on Facebook.

 

To a person, they don't only dislike Trump, they despise the man. Out of a half dozen Mormons I've seen talk about the man, every one of them has mentioned how they refuse to vote for him and they're exploring third party options (or even, gasp, Hillary Clinton).

 

If Trump has alienated even 10%, much less 20%, of the traditional GOP base, this election is going to be a landslide.

 

This entire situation is such a mess.

 

Yep, and Utah is inching toward being a battleground state, given Gary Johnson. That is a state that really could go 1/3, 1/3, 1/3--combo of Johnson and Stein. That is crazy to think. 

 

I don't know if I posted this here or not . . . but I have had over 1,000 students in philosophy classes in Indiana now, most of them at a community college. I think about 40 percent of my students have been liberals of various stripes, 20 percent old school conservatives who lead first with social conservatism, and 40 percent libertarians of some sort, who have economic concerns about spending--though some of this is misguided hatred for other poor people, exaggerating how much is spent on welfare programs. How the GOP hasn't figured this out by now is beyond me. CHILL OUT ABOUT GAY PEOPLE, man. A libertarian-sounding guy who probably still is against abortion, but really doesn't touch many social issues at all . . . that should be the future over there, but I don't think they are going to figure that out for quite some time. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's surreal that the two most influential swing states in the country - Florida and Ohio - have powerful Republicans who could swing the states toward Trump, yet one has what is possibly Trump's most vocal opponent (maybe Romney is more vocal but it's close) and the other has a guy whose support for Trump can only be labeled as "tepid" if I'm feeling extremely generous.

 

Good lord, Trump is a buffoon.

[Shane Wahl]

Clinton has double digit leads in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

[Mike Sixel]

I refuse to under estimate Trump, or my fellow citizens, ever......until I wake up a week later, i'm not sure I'll believe the outcomes.

[Shane Wahl]

 

It's surreal that the two most influential swing states in the country - Florida and Ohio - have powerful Republicans who could swing the states toward Trump, yet one has what is possibly Trump's most vocal opponent (maybe Romney is more vocal but it's close) and the other has a guy whose support for Trump can only be labeled as "tepid" if I'm feeling extremely generous.

 

Good lord, Trump is a buffoon.

 

Yeah, there must be people in the establishment over there who really thought it would shape up to be Bush-Kasich. Leaving the Bush factor out of that as a negative . . . . can you imagine how different things would be right now?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, there must be people in the establishment over there who really thought it would shape up to be Bush-Kasich. Leaving the Bush factor out of that as a negative . . . . can you imagine how different things would be right now?

God, I completely forgot about Jeb. I was talking about Rubio in my post.

 

Yeah, so two guys in Florida who pretty much hate Donald Trump.

[ashbury]

I was referring to this

 

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/trumps-crashing-and-burning-fivethirtyeight-projects-clinton-has-929-chance-winning

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

Instead of using a secondary source, go to the primary. Nate Silver's site offers three forecasts.

 

Now-cast: if the election were held today. Uses the latest polls. This shows 90+% for Hillary at the moment and is probably what your article was looking at. It's already swung back a couple ticks toward Trump. It's always going to be the most volatile one, and thus the most "newsworthy".

 

Polls-only: uses previous polls as well as the current to try to sort out temporary bumps from the underlying poll trends. This shows 83% for Hillary.

 

Polls-plus: uses the above, plus economic and other trends. This shows 75% for Hillary.

 

I'm pretty sure the latter is the one Silver considers his definitive forecast. "If the election were held today" is close to meaningless for a prediction, since it is not being held today.

 

All are strong for Hillary, but the 75% one includes an approximately 15% chance of some black swan event throwing things Trump's way. I'm not ready to say anything's in the bag in August.