At the Quarter Pole

[stringer bell]

The Twins are 23-17.  In the "up your predictions" thread, there has been a good discussion of luck, peripherals, and a lot of other factors that have contributed to the good record.  I'm not convinced that the Twins will contend given the shakiness of the bullpen, the lack of upside of the current rotation and still rather large holes at key positions. 

 

However, they have to proceed as contenders right now, no matter what advanced statistics and believers in a full rebuild would say.  Certainly, I concur that Twins have to go forward as if they are contenders.  There are factors that indicate that the team can continue to be relevant throughout the summer.  First of all, there is much room for improvement from players who have performed well in this decade.  Secondly, there is help available in the minor leagues for the Twins soft spots--the pitching staff, center field and maybe catcher.  The Twins have a good lineup, surprising strengths in the pitching staff and so far, a bulletproof back end of the bullpen. 

 

I guess I will believe until the Twins really hit the skids.

[twinsnorth49]

The team finally has some much needed depth, it's refreshing for them to be able to bring in effective pieces to the 25 man when someone is struggling, and for the 40 man to not be completely cluttered with driftwood.

 

As long as they properly use what is available to them I think they can continue to move forward.

[TheLeviathan]

It's been a nice run here so far.  I don't know if they're going to go pumpkin on us or not but so far so good.  They are a very gritty team - other than the team's relative age they remind me a lot of our last renaissance in the early 2000s.  

[DaveW]

Bullpen is gonna be the big key moving fwd IMHO. Key will be Tonkin stepping up and fien coming back healthy, if those guys can prove to be a solid 7th and 8th inning bridge to Perkins....I like our chances on staying in the wild card hunt into September

[Danchat]

Now that we're at the quarter pole, at least Mauer is on pace to hit 4 HRs. 

 

 

I'm surprised at how we don't have that many players performing at a top level but we're still getting it done. Our starting pitching is soooo much better than it was in the previous 4 years. If they can sustain the quality starts and get the bullpen into better shape, then this team might just compete.

[twinsnorth49]

Maybe one of the most encouraging things is that we have yet to see the best 25 the club can assemble, yet they still manage to be 6 games on the good side of the ledger.

[Thegrin]

It was a surprise that the Twins won both the Pittsburgh games.  They showed both their strengths and their weaknesses in the short 2-game series.  When the next quarter is done, we will be getting a fresh arm, in Santana.  2015 is shaping up to be an interesting season. 

[USAFChief]

I think they need to shore up the bullpen to stay relevant.

 

Other than that, it seems to me they've earned their record.

[DarrenVahtra]

I'll believe this team is serious about winning when Ricky nolasco doesn't have a starting job. And that has to, for the love of god, be before Ervin Santana comes back.

[jimmer]

I'm just enjoying the winning.  I hope that, somehow, the clock doesn't strike midnight next month.  IMO the Orioles wasn't the most talented club the last couple years but they won.  It can happen even if you look at the team and wonder how it's possible.  

 

Again, I'm just going to enjoy it and hope it continues.  Even if we manage to finish .500, it'll be a big improvement over the last 4 seasons and we know the kids are still filtering up to the MLB club which gives us even more hope.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Wow! The negativity.

 

If the team is still in it a month from now, they get Santana back and they are buyers at the trade deadline. They have many chips available for a top end arm, a veteran bat and/or glove.

[Dantes929]

 

Bullpen is gonna be the big key moving fwd IMHO. Key will be Tonkin stepping up and fien coming back healthy, if those guys can prove to be a solid 7th and 8th inning bridge to Perkins....I like our chances on staying in the wild card hunt into September

Screw wild card.    Odds be damned.   I am hoping every one of the guys is thinking division championship rather than wild card.   Only real flaw in the season so far is 2-7 against Detroit.   Lineup is ok especially if Hicks can be solid.   Starting rotation has been good with good depth.  Milone right now for Nolasco would make it look even better.    Bullpen gets ripped a lot but it is a lot like the Jesse Crain dynamic.   They blow up a couple times and everyone writes them off and doesn't notice the half dozen solid performances in between.    Blow up a couple times in big losses and hold tight in close games is a decent recipe.

[RedBull34]

 

I'll believe this team is serious about winning when Ricky nolasco doesn't have a starting job. And that has to, for the love of god, be before Ervin Santana comes back.

You have to have somebody to replace him with.  Is anybody ready to come up and fill that spot?

 

I do think that Nolasco is future bullpen (ala Edwin Jackson) but we have to wait for Santana to come back for that to happen.

[brvama]

It's interesting that so far there hasn't been that one individual that has carried this team. It's been a team effort. I'm not sure if there is anyone that has been an all-star player, outside of Perkins and Boyer. I have to give Molitor much credit for that. I like the way he doesn't overthink the game and allows the players to play. Also, how he and Allen handle the pitching staff.

[Blackjack]

 

Our starting pitching is soooo much better than it was in the previous 4 years. If they can sustain the quality starts and get the bullpen into better shape, then this team might just compete.

 

I think the starting pitching is the key, thats why Terry Ryan brought in Hughes, Nolassco, Pelfrey, and Santana. They don't have to be great but if they can just go 6-7 innings and keep the Twins in the game, it makes the bullpen better.  And with Santana coming back in July, it could be fun!!!

 

Also have to also give Molitor a lot of credit, the players have really responded to his calm demeanor.

[Old Twins Cap]

Not really sure how they've been winning.  A little of everything:  timely hitting, a good play here or there, relievers squeaking by, decent starting pitching, veteran moxie from Hunter, Plouffe and Mauer, a steady hand from Molitor, plus, duct tape, smoke and mirrors.

 

Baseball is a mysterious game, made up of 3-run singles, fortuitous bounces, playing teams at the right time, injuries -- things that just happen.

 

From 5 under to 6 over .500 in little more than a month.  Gotta take that.  But, you are never as good as you think when things go well;  never as bad when they go poorly. 

 

Probably, the Twins are a .500 team.  Or, just a hair under.  In the best division in baseball that's pretty fun baseball overall.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can't wrap my head around this team being six games over .500 right now. This feels like, at best, a .500 squad based on their play.

 

Whatever. I'll take it. If they can somehow keep it up, this season will be a lot of fun.

[REPETE]

 

Also have to also give Molitor a lot of credit, the players have really responded to his calm demeanor.

I believe it's a combination of Molitor's calm, plus Torii's got them having fun.  It's nice to see the guys jumping in the outfield after a win (for that matter, it's nice to see a win!).  This team was missing a spark plug.  As TK said when they brought in Dan Gladden, "you need a guy like that on your roster."

Bill Parcells said, "you are what your record is."  That means right now, the Twins are 6 games better than 500.  Will they end up there at the end of the season?  Who knows.  But right now, they are 6 games over 500, and I'm enjoying the ride, and looking forward to the roster still being turned over at mid season, due to injuries, poor performance, or young guys performing so well in the minors they can't be ignored any longer.  

[JB_Iowa]

It's a TEAM game .....

 

and this has been the ultimate TEAM effort.

 

So much fun to see who will come through in the clinches.  A 13th inning HR from Mr. Mauer?  Who'd have thunk it?

 

I do hope a couple of players emerge who can put the team on their shoulders if it starts going bad but i love that the team has a lot of different "heroes".

[Mike Sixel]

Other than CF (which may be fixedish).....the team has less black holes than the last two years. IMO, this shows the value of even average players. Not completely giving away multiple positions is huge. This is, imo, especially true about the pitching on this team. Ryan deserves credit for the that.

[Jham]

I sort of think we can stick around.  I look at our team, and I do not think anyone has really over-performed, and those who have are countered with under-performances which should even out.  Pelfrey has looked like a decent back end starter.  Nolasco has come back from the DL as serviceable.  This helped us weather Hughe's 0-4 start.  Boyer has certainly gotten things together, but Stauffer gave the team nothing.  I think those wash.  Hunter is still putting up numbers, ditto Plouffe and Dozier, but none are having career years at this point.  Meanwhile, guys like Mauer, Suzuki, and Santana, and Arcia have not hit to expectations.  Our run differential of +6 puts us where you'd think we'd be, about in the middle. So I think we're about where we should be, and expect us to stay around there or hopefully improve when guys like Buxton and Santana return.  It's relatively easy to trade for bull pen arms in July if need be.  Catching the Royals might take some luck.  They are +64 in run differential, is that even possible?

[jimmer]

 

Other than CF (which may be fixedish).....the team has less black holes than the last two years. IMO, this shows the value of even average players. Not completely giving away multiple positions is huge. This is, imo, especially true about the pitching on this team. Ryan deserves credit for the that.

Whether they are the answer or not long term, the younger guys have started coming up with more on the way and it's making this team more fun to watch. I think the fun we're seeing has to do with just having a younger team that is having some success.  I hope it continues.

[zenser]

I am pleasantly surprised.  I was hoping for .500 this year.  They have played a lot of division games and have fared well with the exception of Detroit and other than the first series, they had a chance to win a couple other series with them. 

 

We know reinforcements are available and coming soon so I am going to enjoy this ride and hopefully there will be meaningful games late in the season.

[Physics Guy]

I guess it's pretty simple:  4.58 RS/game  vs.  4.42 RA/game.  Pythagorean has them at 21-19, so slightly outperforming.  I haven't been able to watch a ton of innings, but it seems to me the starters are keeping the squad in games and the offense is finding a way to win ball games.  Over the past three years, my impression was that our starters had us out of a game by the fourth inning.  It seems those games are few and far between this year. 

[Loosey]

It is pretty amazing what "Not Horrible" starting pitching can do for team.  I honestly believe this can be sustainable.  Also, I don't think we have seen the best roster the Twins will put on out there yet.  By the end of July starting pitching will have Santana replacing whomever is the weak link at that time.  Essentially the Twins could have a pitching staff that is 6 or 7 deep, granted some of those are #4 and #5 starters, but compared to past years entire rotation of # 5 starters this staff looks leaps and bounds better. 

 

Additionally, the offense isn't performing to the best of their abilities yet.  If this team had a bunch of guys over achieving I would be thinking they might begin to end their winning ways but instead they are winning despite guys not playing their best (or what used to be their best).

[Mike Sixel]

 

I guess it's pretty simple:  4.58 RS/game  vs.  4.42 RA/game.  Pythagorean has them at 21-19, so slightly outperforming.  I haven't been able to watch a ton of innings, but it seems to me the starters are keeping the squad in games and the offense is finding a way to win ball games.  Over the past three years, my impression was that our starters had us out of a game by the fourth inning.  It seems those games are few and far between this year. 

 

My perception also.....

[Dantes929]

 

I guess it's pretty simple:  4.58 RS/game  vs.  4.42 RA/game.  Pythagorean has them at 21-19, so slightly outperforming.  I haven't been able to watch a ton of innings, but it seems to me the starters are keeping the squad in games and the offense is finding a way to win ball games.  Over the past three years, my impression was that our starters had us out of a game by the fourth inning.  It seems those games are few and far between this year. 

When they lose big I just kind of think "ok, got that one out of their system.  Now lets win a couple 4-3 games before the next blowout.    AL Central considered the strongest.  Makes me wonder if quality in general is down which brings the league down toward our level while we are getting better.   Still think most of the credit goes to Allen.    Some of it come from having a bad team with a horrible minor league system 3 years ago to guys maturing and having the best minor league system.   Everyone wanted to blame Ryan when things went bad.   Anyone giving him credit now?    Didn't think so.   Maybe this won't last.   Doesn't mean next year and year after that it won't be real.

[jimmer]

 

It is pretty amazing what "Not Horrible" starting pitching can do for team.  

from what I see, our rotation for the year has been towards the bottom in the AL.  Tied for 13th in FIP, with only the Blue Jays worse.  Yes, the FIP is quite a bit better than last year so far, but the game now is leaning in the pitchers favor and ERA and FIPs are dropping.

 

So while we are winning for sure, I wouldn't say our starting pitching is out of the woods or significantly better.  We'll take it though, cause we are winning, but I'd put it on timely hitting.

[Dantes929]

 

You have to have somebody to replace him with.  Is anybody ready to come up and fill that spot?

 

I do think that Nolasco is future bullpen (ala Edwin Jackson) but we have to wait for Santana to come back for that to happen.

I will go with the guy I wanted to keep in his stead in the first place, was demoted even with an ERA 1.25 runs better than Nolasco and who has a 3-0 record and a 0.00 ERA in 23 innings in the minors.    So my answer to who is ready to come up and take that spot is the guy who should never have lost it.  Tommy Milone.

[Halsey Hall]

This team just has me confused!  How many teams go scoreless for 10 innings a win a game?  And we went another 6 or so scoreless the game before and came out on top. 

 

It really doesn't even seem like a team to me, more like a bunch of guys that get along together, are having fun and go out and play together.  The lineups change daily, everyone gets to play.  Win the game and have a dance party, why not?  I give Torii a ton of credit for instilling life into what's been a  downer clubhouse.  He's always smiling and having fun, and it's rubber off on all of them.

 

Neil Allen has brought a fresh attitude and new mentality to the pitching staff.  He might be the best hire here since Sam Mele!  Molitor is getting his feet wet managing, and doing a lot more right than not while still learning. 

 

i think we're playing over our heads, but who knows, maybe we keep it up.  It sure is fun for now.