Do not count out Eddie Rosario

[beckmt]

One thought,  this is early in spring training and Rosario is seeing suspects/prospects in his at bats.  Before we get overhyped, lets see how Rosario does in a couple of weeks when pitchers are closer to ready and the ones who need jobs are using everything they have to get players out.  Also many of the suspects will be gone so the only pitchers Rosario will see are those who have a realistic chance of being on a major league roster.

[Dantes929]

 

This, this, and this.

 

Let's not repeat the Aaron Hicks mistake. Throw a Hicks/Schafer platoon out there to start the season, hope one of them succeeds, and then hope either Rosario or Buxton rises quickly if that doesn't happen.

 

Eddie Rosario isn't Aaron Hicks. He might succeed immediately... But given how rusty he was in 2014, there's no reason to take a gamble like that in April. Let the kid figure it out in the minors and then promote him if he proves he's ready.

I have never considered Hicks to be a mistake except in hindsight.   He had a good year in AA and they thought he was ready just like teams have relied on guys to be ready since the league began.   There is no evidence that if Hicks had gone the AAA route that he would have succeeded there or if he did well there that he would have done well with the Twins.    

I would imagine that there have been plenty of players that made the jump and have done well..   Were these mistakes as well?   Or were they good moves also only in hindsight.     To me its akin to a pitcher saying he made just one mistake and that was the pitch that the guy hit out of the park even though that same exact  pitch got a bunch of batters out also.   Its just hindsight.  

Lastly, if Rosario does start out in center it might improve our offense but it does little to solve the outfield defense problem.   I don't see that being solved until both Rosario and Buxton are regulars.

[Thrylos]

 

I'm not sure I like the idea personally. Rosario has yet to hit well in AA (something Hicks was able to do I might add).

 

Would you say the same about Buxton?  At least Rosario hit well in the AFL, something that Buxton never did,  And Rosario did hit .284/.330/.412 in AA in 2013, which in that league is not that bad.  Last year was a lost year for him in any manner.

[kab21]

 

This, this, and this.

 

Let's not repeat the Aaron Hicks mistake. Throw a Hicks/Schafer platoon out there to start the season, hope one of them succeeds, and then hope either Rosario or Buxton rises quickly if that doesn't happen.

 

Eddie Rosario isn't Aaron Hicks. He might succeed immediately... But given how rusty he was in 2014, there's no reason to take a gamble like that in April. Let the kid figure it out in the minors and then promote him if he proves he's ready.

Let's not make all future decisions based on one player's failures.  Danny Santana similarly didn't do much at AA before getting a brief cup of coffee at AAA and coming up.  Just because Hicks failed doesn't mean another player will also fail.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm not sure I like the idea personally. Rosario has yet to hit well in AA (something Hicks was able to do I might add). Not sure I like the idea of repeating the Hicks mistake. I haven't seen him out there, so who knows, but I don't get the warm and fuzzies about it, that's for sure.

im with you, but just because it didn't work with Hicks doesn't mean it can't work with Rosario. However, if your going to give Rosario a shot, it needs to come with the mindset that Rosario's development comes first. Send him back to AA if he struggles too badly for too long.

[dxpavelka]

On the one hand we complain that Hicks was rushed on the other we complain that we need to rush Buxton so he can be the next Mike Trout.  So confused.  It hurts.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Let's not make all future decisions based on one player's failures. Danny Santana similarly didn't do much at AA before getting a brief cup of coffee at AAA and coming up. Just because Hicks failed doesn't mean another player will also fail.

Pretty sure I covered that in the last paragraph of my post.

[Platoon]

Just do it.  Everything that pushes the envelope and gets the prospects on the field is appealing.  What do we have to lose?  Look at all the pre-season rankings by non-Minnesota writers and you can see that we are not at a level where we have to have a "veteran" in the field at any position.  If Rosario looks good - give him a shot.  We can call up replacements.

normally I agree totally, and still do. But since Hunter is wasting an OF spot this year, to me it means they have to come to a decision on Hicks, before Rosario. This is not an endorsement for or against Hicks. It just addresses the fact that he is unfinished business. And it needs to be resolved. (Btw, can you endorse against?)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm just floored that so many people advocate calling up Rosario after:

 

1. Aaron Hicks was placed in a similar situation and failed so spectacularly

 

2. This Rosario hype is based on AFL and Spring Training stats, just like Hicks in 2012

 

3. Rosario was not a very good baseball player in 2014

 

Let the kid prove he's ready for MLB pitching in non-exhibition games and then promote him. Crikey. How many times are we going to make this same mistake? On one hand, we have people banging the "Spring Training games don't matter" drum (rightly so IMO) and then we have some of the same people saying Rosario should get a shot... based on AFL and ST games that amount to roughly 100 exhibition plate appearances apiece against mixed competition. The mind boggles.

[Brock Beauchamp]

FTR, I'm all for calling up Rosario as early as May if he's raking against real, established competition in the upper minors.

 

But not after a handful of exhibition at-bats against some pretty shoddy pitching. No way. That's just asking for Aaron Hicks all over again. And for what? 75-100 plate appearances in April? That seems like really foolish decision-making, the kind of knee-jerk reactionary stuff that people deserve to get fired for doing.

[nater79a]

normally I agree totally, and still do. But since Hunter is wasting an OF spot this year, to me it means they have to come to a decision on Hicks, before Rosario. This is not an endorsement for or against Hicks. It just addresses the fact that he is unfinished business. And it needs to be resolved. (Btw, can you endorse against?)

 

Agree that Hunter wouldn't have been brought in if Hicks was sitting in the minors. Hunter will mentor young Aaron (and Buxton) until he's dealt at the deadline to open up outfield spots for the "future".

[dxpavelka]

 

I'm just floored that so many people advocate calling up Rosario after:

 

1. Aaron Hicks was placed in a similar situation and failed so spectacularly

 

2. This Rosario hype is based on AFL and Spring Training stats, just like Hicks in 2012

 

3. Rosario was not a very good baseball player in 2014

 

Let the kid prove he's ready for MLB pitching in non-exhibition games and then promote him. Crikey. How many times are we going to make this same mistake? On one hand, we have people banging the "Spring Training games don't matter" drum (rightly so IMO) and then we have some of the same people saying Rosario should get a shot... based on AFL and ST games that amount to roughly 100 exhibition plate appearances apiece against mixed competition. The mind boggles

 

My saying I believe Rosario is our most big ready prospect has nothing to do with Hicks, the AFL or Spring Training.  I've felt this way since his on field performance at Fort Myers & New Brittain in 2013. 

[jay]

I've felt this way since his on field performance at Fort Myers & New Brittain in 2013.

.260/.302/.403 across 649 PA's at AA doesn't quite give me that level of confidence.

 

Let the kid develop.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My saying I believe Rosario is our most big ready prospect has nothing to do with Hicks, the AFL or Spring Training.  I've felt this way since his on field performance at Fort Myers & New Brittain in 2013. 

If he was ready for MLB, he should have been better in July and August of 2014 (which were his best months of last season so I'm not cherry-picking here).

 

July: .250 .282 .471 .753

August: .248 .289 .425 .714

 

The guy had a New Britain OBP of around .285 in July and August. It was 231 PAs so we're not talking about an insignificant amount of playing time.

 

That doesn't look like a guy who's ready to face MLB pitching. He had ~250 PAs before that time to shake off the suspension rust so that can't be used as an excuse for his mediocre play.

 

Sending a guy who played a shortened season in 2014 out against MLB pitching - a guy whose .285 OBP in AA screams "can not identify a pitch" - is asking for Aaron Hicks, Episode II. If the guy can't identify AA pitching and lay off the occasional pitch, MLB pitchers are going to crucify him out there.

 

Rosario isn't Ben Revere; he's not an extreme contact hitter so you can (somewhat) overlook his lack of walks. Eddie isn't a strikeout machine but he's not particularly good at making contact, either. That tells me he struggles with recognition and guesses a lot. If Oswaldo Arcia struggles with that problem in MLB, it's likely that Rosario will be embarrassed in MLB should he be promoted too quickly (Oswaldo is a much better hitter than Rosario and his wrists are lightning fast, allowing him to compensate for guess swings a bit).

[KGB]

I think we need to get over the Aaron Hicks comparison and fear of rushing a prospect.  Danny Santana didn't have a overwhelming minor league career and looked great last year at 23.  Hicks failure probably has more to do with his ability and not his age at the time he was brought up.  Lot of players are able to contribute at the major league level at the age of 23 or younger.

 

I don't expect Rosario to break camp with the Twins, but I hope he up soon.  Having a great minor league system doesn't do you any good if you are afraid to test them at the major league level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think we need to get over the Aaron Hicks comparison and fear of rushing a prospect.  Danny Santana didn't have a overwhelming minor league career and looked great last year at 23.  Hicks failure probably has more to do with his ability and not his age at the time he was brought up.  Lot of players are able to contribute at the major league level at the age of 23 or younger.

I wouldn't say "lots of players contribute at 23 or younger", particularly position players. The ones who manage to contribute at 23 or younger tend to be more highly regarded than Rosario (a borderline top 100 prospect, not even as well-regarded as Hicks was during his MiLB career).

 

I really don't like comparing Danny Santana to anybody. He's the kind of outlier that influences bad decision-making. Nobody - not even the Twins front office - expected anything resembling Danny Santana's performance in 2014, Ryan even admitted as much.

 

Rosario isn't a Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton type talent where you're tempted to throw him out there and let him rely on raw talent to at least hold his own against MLB pitching when he probably isn't ready. He's a lot more Aaron Hicks than he is Mike Trout; it's prudent to protect those players a bit and give them all the possible tools to succeed before throwing them to the wolves.

[Boom Boom]

You have to judge the readiness of prospects on a case by case basis. If you think Rosario isn't ready, that's a supportable position, but I don't think that the case of Aaron Hicks is relevant.

 

Hicks is an outlier. Very few prospects flop as spectacularly. Teams can't get gun shy about calling up prospects because one guy fell on his face.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The core of my argument is this:

 

Eddie Rosario's reasonable ceiling is "competent MLB starter". He's not a great prospect. He didn't have a good 2014 and scuffled pretty much the entire season. He's only entering his age 23 season.

 

Why are so many in such a rush to see this guy in Minnesota right now? Let him face MiLB pitching to start the season and see how he does. Make a decision after you see how the kid plays in April and May. He's not the type of prospect you trip over yourself in a rush to promote him to MLB. He's a solid prospect with decent upside. Let him mature and rise through the system at his own pace, don't force the issue.

[dxpavelka]

 

.260/.302/.403 across 649 PA's at AA doesn't quite give me that level of confidence.

Let the kid develop.

 

[dxpavelka]

 

.260/.302/.403 across 649 PA's at AA doesn't quite give me that level of confidence.

Let the kid develop.

.294/.343.485 accross all levels does though.

 

[scottz]

 

Why are so many in such a rush to see this guy in Minnesota right now?

 

For myself, it isn't that I'm in a rush to see him, it's more that I've personally seen or have an idea of the other options and I'm not particularly interested in those options if the team thinks Rosario is a better option. I'm not going to pitch a fit if they decide to go with a Hicks/Schaefer platoon (which could be kind of effective and fun for end of game substitutions), but if management wants to take a flyer on him, I'll be excited to watch him go at it. Rosario is the most interesting option to me.

 

So that's my answer anyway.

[stringer bell]

 

FTR, I'm all for calling up Rosario as early as May if he's raking against real, established competition in the upper minors.

 

But not after a handful of exhibition at-bats against some pretty shoddy pitching. No way. That's just asking for Aaron Hicks all over again. And for what? 75-100 plate appearances in April? That seems like really foolish decision-making, the kind of knee-jerk reactionary stuff that people deserve to get fired for doing.

I get your reasoning Brock.  I probably even agree with you.  I will say that Hicks and Rosario should start even in their pursuit of the starting center field spot.  Hicks has done nothing in games that count to show that he belongs in the big leagues (same as Rosario).  IMHO, both should be sent to AAA and the one that plays best should take over center from Schafer/Robinson.  If that isn't what the Twins want, then whoever plays better this spring between Rosario and Hicks should get the first crack. 

 

I don't think Rosario's AFL stint or some good at-bats in spring prove anything, but they also might be clues that he has made a big leap.  His play on the field and the evaluation of the field staff should determine where he is placed at the end of spring training.

[TKGuy]

A year sure makes a difference, Alex Presley and Sam Fuld vs Hicks and Rosario

[Kwak]

There is basically two philosophies: 1) Promote to challenge/verify worthiness and use the "options" to demote a guy if he doesn't succeed; 2) Promote slowly, using the options while the player is in the minors so you have an older player with more minor league experience to rationalize why a player succeeded or failed.

 

Option 1 requires a willinness to "cut bait" with failures even though the guy is young enough he might turn things around. Option 2 clogs-up a system if a team ever gets to the point of actually having multiple real prospects at every position. I think the Twins should be more aggressive in promoting because they actually have depth through the minors and are demonstrating a willingness to spend more to acquire better (and more of those!) prospects. Option 1 is for revenue challenged teams--and I think the Twins are beyond that level.

[kab21]

 

The core of my argument is this:

 

Eddie Rosario's reasonable ceiling is "competent MLB starter". He's not a great prospect. He didn't have a good 2014 and scuffled pretty much the entire season. He's only entering his age 23 season.

 

Why are so many in such a rush to see this guy in Minnesota right now? Let him face MiLB pitching to start the season and see how he does. Make a decision after you see how the kid plays in April and May. He's not the type of prospect you trip over yourself in a rush to promote him to MLB. He's a solid prospect with decent upside. Let him mature and rise through the system at his own pace, don't force the issue.

The important thing is for the FO to look at the baseball player on the field and determine if he's ready.  Stats are important but they only tell a little of the story. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

The important thing is for the FO to look at the baseball player on the field and determine if he's ready. Stats are important but they only tell a little of the story.

Absolutely. If the team thinks he's ready, I'll defer to their judgment. I may be skeptical of the decision but they certainly have more information than I do.

[stringer bell]

Absolutely. If the team thinks he's ready, I'll defer to their judgment. I may be skeptical of the decision but they certainly have more information than I do.

I think that is fair. My concern is that Hicks has been designated by some as the favorite or incumbent for no reason (IMHO). There are a lot of factors to consider--what's best for the player's development, who fits with the rest of the roster, whether they provide versatility, options, whether they can be effective off the bench--but no player should be assured of a job (or even the inside track for a roster spot) on the basis of the performance Hicks has had to date.

[laloesch]

It would be interesting to see an infield of Mauer -1b, Rosario -2b, Santana -ss and Sano -3b.  

[Paul Pleiss]

What would have to happen to have Rosario on this roster leaving Spring Training?

 

Two of Hicks/Schafer/Arcia/Hunter injured?

 

I'm not sure Rosario is MLB ready. But his bat speed is tremendously fun to watch. He could be the first position player up if he can show that he's figured out AA/AAA early in the season.

[dxpavelka]

 

It would be interesting to see an infield of Mauer -1b, Rosario -2b, Santana -ss and Sano -3b.  

Again I'm in the minority but I've been saying since Dozier started showing moderate power that if he remains a .242 hitter Rosario could push him from 2B.