Berrios, Meyer, and Stewart: How do you rank 'em?

[2wins87]

The vast majority of Twins prospect lists have Berrios, Meyer, and Stewart ranked as the Twins top 3 pitching prospects, many of them slotting them #3-5 in their overall rankings.  However, there's really no consensus over who's #3 and who's #5.  This isn't really that surprising; while they all have top of the rotation potential, they are much different as prospects.  So how do you rank them and more importantly why?

 

My ranking:

 

1. Meyer

For me this ranking is mostly about pure stuff.  Neither Berrios nor Stewart will ever touch Meyer's fastball.  His slider, while inconsistent, also ranks at the top of the group, and may be similarly untouchable.  If it were just about pure stuff it would be an easy choice, but his inconsistency has slid him down a lot of lists.  I hesitate to bring up Randy Johnson as is often done here, because he's an anomaly among anomalies, and we shouldn't really expect Meyer to have anywhere near that kind of transformation.  But with even a modest improvement in his command I think Meyer will be a very valuable pitcher.  I don't know if there are stats to back this up, but it's my feeling that modest improvements in command and consistency are common within a pitcher's first few years in the majors, even for guys that have already celebrated their 25th birthday before making it there.  So overall I'm pretty optimistic that Meyer puts it together well enough to become a mainstay in the rotation for years to come.

 

2. Berrios

The one word argument for this ranking would have to be makeup.  I think Berrios and Stewart could very easily end up being quite similar pitchers.  Both have a mix of 4 pitches that all project to be above average or plus at the mlb level. Berrios is the more polished prospect at this point, but more important to me is everything we hear about his poise and drive on the mound.  While his size may limit his ultimate ceiling and durability his makeup gives me a lot of confidence that he'll reach his potential.

 

3. Stewart

As I said above, Stewart's 4-pitch mix projects to play very well in the majors.  If anything, being a little bigger and a little more raw than Berrios gives him a good chance of having even better stuff.  I'm not really too concerned about some of the rumors of makeup issues, but not having the same glowing reports does make him a little less certain as a prospect to me.  The strikeout rates also make me wonder a little, though I'm pretty sure we'll see significant improvement this year.

 

So that's my ranking, tell me where I'm wrong.

 

[jimmer]

I personally have it Berrios, Stewart, Meyer.  But I can't tell you with any authority that you are wrong, just saying I see it playing out that way.

[Rosterman]

Those three alone makes you salivate at what the Twins will have as a rotation come 2017-18-19.

 

Was just noticing that not counting the guys from the 40-man who have to find roster spots, the Twins have 86 pitchers in their minor league system out of 164 total players (again, not counting 40-man cuts). Know that many, many can go to extended spring training, but there's an even 100 on the temporary rosters of the top four classifications.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like tools, but I think results do matter. I'd probably go Meyer, Berrios, Stewart right now just b/c of results. As for ceiling... They are all potential number ones.

[jimmer]

I like tools, but I think results do matter. I'd probably go Meyer, Berrios, Stewart right now just b/c of results. As for ceiling... They are all potential number ones.

Do you like Meyer's results better than Berrios'?

[teekz]

I think I'd probably go Stewart, Berrios then Meyer. Meyer is getting up there in age. Still think Stewart has higher ceiling.

[cmb0252]

Fun topic. Prospect experts seem to be all over the place with these three. I know I'm in the minority but I still have Stewart #1 (#3 overall in the system). I just think he has the best overall package.

[nater79a]

All really close for me...I'd probably go Meyer, Stewart and then Berrios.

 

Having said that, I'm probably more excited to see Berrios at the big league level than any of them. Just because of the wide range of opinions on his ability, I guess.

[Thrylos]

Meyer, Berrios and Stewart and my explanations are here and here.   The one concern I have about Stewart is that his velocity is high but he does not miss many bats.  His K% this season was 17.2 and that is a pretty big concern (compare that to Berrios in low 20s and Meyer at high 20s).  Frankly, if this does not change this season, he might actually drop behind one or both of the lefties (Thorpe and Gonsalves.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Meyer, Berrios and Stewart and my explanations are here and here.   The one concern I have about Stewart is that his velocity is high but he does not miss many bats.  His K% this season was 17.2 and that is a pretty big concern (compare that to Berrios in low 20s and Meyer at high 20s).  Frankly, if this does not change this season, he might actually drop behind one or both of the lefties (Thorpe and Gonsalves.)

I agree with Thyrlos completely!

 

http://www.troll.me/images/keanu-reeves-conspiracy/whoa-thumb.jpg

[h2oface]

With you 100%. Meyer, Berrios, Stewart. 

[Seth Stohs]

Berrios, Stewart, Meyer is how I ranked them 2 months ago in the MN Twins Prospect Handbook. Nothing has happened to this point for that to change, but that is always subject to change. I believe I had them 3, 5, 6 overall. 

[Steve Lein]

If I base it on stuff and ceiling, I'd have them Meyer, Stewart, Berrios.

 

If I add performance relative to each other to the equation thus far, I'd still have them Meyer, Stewart, Berrios.

 

They're all excellent to me, but Meyer has shown the stuff to dominate at the MLB level. He has the quality, plus, pitches. I believe this trumps everything else when we're talking about prospects.

 

Stewart outperformed Berrios at the same age in the MWL, and he did that while primarily shelving his best strikeout pitch (slider) to work on fastball command. That's also why I don't look at his K-rate and become alarmed enough to knock him down.

 

Berrios set the world on fire this year and certainly brought himself a lot closer to those two (not behind by much), but there are reasons the others still get "top of the rotation" evaluations for their potential, and Berrios still gets "mid-rotation" starter marks, and it's the quality of their "stuff" in relation to getting MLB hitters out in the future.

 

I think you could argue it any possible way though. Everyone likes certain traits more than others, which makes it fun!

[h2oface]

2015 Baseball Prospectus top 101........ Meyer #14, Kohl Stewart #28, Jose Berrios #48, Lewis Thorpe #91, Nick Burdi #99. (Byron Buxton #1, Miguel Sano #12, Nick Gordon #70). The prospects lists love Stewart.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25538 

[Ncgo4]

Berrios, Stewart, Meyer. Emotional makeup is always the key and Berrios just seems to have that championship makeup in spades. Meyer, it seems to me, just has had too many chances without crossing the finish line. I hope he gets it together, but I just don't have that happy feeling about him.

[h2oface]

Meyer, it seems to me, just has had too many chances without crossing the finish line. I hope he gets it together, but I just don't have that happy feeling about him.

I see it as he has never been allowed to be in the race. Hard to cross the finish line, when you have never even been tested in the show.

[DocBauer]

Meyer, Berrios and then Stewart, right there with ya. For NOW. Meyer's stuff is pretty sick. His change up is improving, his "injuries" have been of the minor and nagging kind, so I am ignoring them for now. It's not uncommon for a power and SO pitcher to throw a few pitches or even walk a few guys. But still, Meyer needs to harness a little more control to economize pitches and I think he'd be about ready to roll.

 

Berrios is, in my opinion, better than a #3 ceiling guy as I have read in various reports. He has nice stuff, a great attitude and work ethic, and a tremendous drive and competitive nature. I believe reports also have him as a pretty nice athlete. I think not being 6' 2" is the only real flaw than anyone can find with him.

 

Stewart is #3 in my book as well. But it's not due to potential. Honestly, he pretty much has a combination of Meyer and Berrios' characteristics. (Good size, velocity, potentially a nice mix, good athlete). He could end up being the best of the three. But he's also the youngest and least experience.

 

*side note*: I also have a ticket on the Thorple/Gonsalves express. Health, (GULP on Thorpe) and a little more consistency on secondary pitches, this list could get a lot more interesting by next season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Do you like Meyer's results better than Berrios'?

 

No, but I like his ceiling better   He's gotten very good results in AA/AAA as well.  I think Stewart has the highest ceiling of them all, but given that he's been in low A with worse results, he's probably the 3rd on that list. 

[jimmer]

No, but I like his ceiling better    He's gotten very good results in AA/AAA as well.  I think Stewart has the highest ceiling of them all, but given that he's been in low A with worse results, he's probably the 3rd on that list. 

it's not always about results, especially in the low ball leagues.  they work on things, mostly.

[markos]

Meyer, Berrios, Stewart

 

I try to factor in stuff, durability, results-relative-to-age and proximity-to-the-majors when ranking pitchers.

 

Stuff: Meyer ... gap ... Stewart, Berrios

Durability: Berrios ... gap ... Meyer, Stewart

Results: Berrios, Meyer ... gap ... Stewart

Proximity: Meyer, Berrios ... gap .. Stewart

 

Meyer and Berrios are super close, and I can make good cases for both of them as the best pitching prospect. In the end, I think Meyer's superior stuff and proximity trump (ever so slightly) Berrios's edge in durability and results. Stewart is clearly #3.

[diehardtwinsfan]

it's not always about results, especially in the low ball leagues.  they work on things, mostly.

Wholeheartedly agree, but I think we've all seen guys who are rated highly who never put it together either. To me, I think they have to show it in some capacity. that isn't a knock on what Stewart did this year (especially given his age), but it didn't look like a top of the rotation type season. He gets higher if he start to show it, but until it shows, I'd have both Meyer and Berrios ahead of him, even though I think he has a decent chance to be the best of the 3 of them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Meyer, Berrios, Stewart

 

I try to factor in stuff, durability, results-relative-to-age and proximity-to-the-majors when ranking pitchers.

 

Stuff: Meyer ... gap ... Stewart, Berrios

Durability: Berrios ... gap ... Meyer, Stewart

Results: Berrios, Meyer ... gap ... Stewart

Proximity: Meyer, Berrios ... gap .. Stewart

 

Meyer and Berrios are super close, and I can make good cases for both of them as the best pitching prospect. In the end, I think Meyer's superior stuff and proximity trump (ever so slightly) Berrios's edge in durability and results. Stewart is clearly #3.

I'd probably argue on the stuff (not much elsewhere). Meyer has 2 very good pitches. Stewart was said by scouts to have 4 plus pitches, which is practically unheard of. I seem to remember a review on Berrios that said something along the lines of having "3 plus pitches and the ability to command the hell out of them"... I don't remember who said that (and could be wrong on the number of pitches), but I think all 3 have superior stuff, though with Berrios, it's his control that makes his arsenal deadly more than the pitches themselves. Either way all could be top of the rotation guys.

 

It will be a good second half of the decade if all 3 pan out.

[2wins87]

I seem to remember a review on Berrios that said something along the lines of having "3 plus pitches and the ability to command the hell out of them"

 

From Kiley McDaniel:

"Berrios calls his breaking pitches a slow and fast curveball, but the fast one plays like a slider and both are above average; scouts will call one or the other plus depending on the day, but the slower curve gets the better grade more often.  His changeup is above average and may be plus one day, helping to keep hitters off his fastball."

 

So yeah he's got 4 and scouts like all of them.

[gunnarthor]

From Kiley McDaniel:

"Berrios calls his breaking pitches a slow and fast curveball, but the fast one plays like a slider and both are above average; scouts will call one or the other plus depending on the day, but the slower curve gets the better grade more often.  His changeup is above average and may be plus one day, helping to keep hitters off his fastball."

 

So yeah he's got 4 and scouts like all of them.

That's a great write up on him from a typically harsh grader but he doesn't say that Berrios has four plus pitches. He actually grades them - 60 or better is plus.  He gave him a plus on the fastball and a future plus on his curve.  The others would be avg or above avg (50-55 grades).  His future role is still a #3 starter to McDaniel - which is great.  

[gunnarthor]

If I base it on stuff and ceiling, I'd have them Meyer, Stewart, Berrios.

 

If I add performance relative to each other to the equation thus far, I'd still have them Meyer, Stewart, Berrios.

 

They're all excellent to me, but Meyer has shown the stuff to dominate at the MLB level. He has the quality, plus, pitches. I believe this trumps everything else when we're talking about prospects.

 

Stewart outperformed Berrios at the same age in the MWL, and he did that while primarily shelving his best strikeout pitch (slider) to work on fastball command. That's also why I don't look at his K-rate and become alarmed enough to knock him down.

 

Berrios set the world on fire this year and certainly brought himself a lot closer to those two (not behind by much), but there are reasons the others still get "top of the rotation" evaluations for their potential, and Berrios still gets "mid-rotation" starter marks, and it's the quality of their "stuff" in relation to getting MLB hitters out in the future.

 

I think you could argue it any possible way though. Everyone likes certain traits more than others, which makes it fun!

This exactly.  Meyer, Stewart, Berrios.  

[brvama]

Isn't this fun when we can argue about the order of 3 pitchers who have the potential to be top of the line? Been a long, long time. Anyway, I currently have Meyer, Berrios, and then Steward as my order. They are so close in potential so the only thing that separates them for me is their probability of reaching the MLB, or how close they are. That is usually way down on my list, but with similar talents like these (plus Thorpe, Gonsalves and others) I can only use that to separate them. This very well could be a continuing exercise for the next 3-4 years!

 

OMG, I am about to pee my pants with excitement ----- or is that age??

[2wins87]

That's a great write up on him from a typically harsh grader but he doesn't say that Berrios has four plus pitches. He actually grades them - 60 or better is plus.  He gave him a plus on the fastball and a future plus on his curve.  The others would be avg or above avg (50-55 grades).  His future role is still a #3 starter to McDaniel - which is great.  

 

Just for the record I never said Berrios had 4 plus pitches, I said they projected to be above average to plus, which I think McDaniel would agree to.  I think Stewart is in the same place; I've seen different ratings in different places, but they generally say that he has 4 pitches which project to end up somewhere between average and solidly plus.  Maybe they could all end up being plus, but I think Berrios could potentially end up there too.  Anyway, 4 above average pitches with a couple of plus weapons is still great.

[markos]

I'd probably argue on the stuff (not much elsewhere). Meyer has 2 very good pitches. Stewart was said by scouts to have 4 plus pitches, which is practically unheard of. I seem to remember a review on Berrios that said something along the lines of having "3 plus pitches and the ability to command the hell out of them"... I don't remember who said that (and could be wrong on the number of pitches), but I think all 3 have superior stuff, though with Berrios, it's his control that makes his arsenal deadly more than the pitches themselves. Either way all could be top of the rotation guys.

 

It will be a good second half of the decade if all 3 pan out.

There is definitely room to argue about their respective stuff, as they all have several very good pitches. My personal view is that of all the pitches those three guys throw, Meyer's fastball and slider are the two best. They are the only two pitches that regularly get 7 grades (though Stewart's slider occasionally gets a 7 future grade), and I think the gap between a 6 grade and a 7 grade is significant (basically, the difference between saying pitch X is in the top-25% versus top-5%). Right now they are the only two pitches that would be included in a "best fastball|slider in baseball" discussion. So I think his combo of two plus-plus pitches is special, and it easily surpasses Stewart's and Berrios's arsenals of 4 average-to-plus pitches. 

 

Again, this is just my personal preference of how to rank "stuff", so I don't really want to get into a heated argument over this. I just wanted to explain my reasoning of why I have Meyer first, and why I think there is a gap between him and the other two.

[ericchri]

I think Stewart inevitably suffers some in a ranking due to less to judge him on.  A year ago at this time people were hopeful but still unsure about Berrios, just like we are now with Stewart.  He looks really promising, the scouts like him, but we have only one full season of non-rookie ball to really judge him by. 

 

I'm no scout, I've not watched any of these guys pitch, I don't dig through everybody's scouting reports on the internet, so I'm not even remotely qualified to judge.  My gut feeling from stuff mostly read on this site is Berrios is the most likely to reach his potential due to "makeup" or "work ethic" or whatever you want to call it.  That being said, he probably has the lowest ceiling of the three.  My gut tells me Meyer has the most upside if he gets everything under control.  My gut (yep, it's growing and taking control of my life as I get older) tells me Stewart is the sleeper of the three we just don't know as much about yet.  I think in the end my gut is going to predict that the best career in the majors will be Stewart, followed by Berrios, and then Meyer.  And my gut also suspects Meyer will have a decent career (though not a similar pitching style, somewhere along the lines of how Scott Baker did for us, maybe a hair better), meaning Stewart will hopefully be really, really good.

 

This is going to be such an interesting season in the minors again.  Do we have this same conversation again next year, only having "graduated" Meyer and Berrios, is it about Stewart, Thorpe, and Gonsalves (or maybe even Hu)?  Nice to finally have so many high-potential arms to watch, we only need a few to work out even if others flame out, we don't have to pin all hopes on the one guy to save our rotation.

[beckmt]

I believe one of the strikeout issues with Steward was he was limited in throwing his breaking pitches/slider(at least I thought I saw this here last year).  That is his strikeout pitch, but also the one that will cause the most arm issues/