Reusse's Take on the 2015 Twins

[stringer bell]

I believe Reusse is going on vacation, perhaps to Ft. Myers, but he wrote a pre-spring training look at the 2015 Twins before his absence. I mostly agree with Patrick's view on baseball and this column is no exception:

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/290167941.html

 

It looks like there is a pretty good consensus on the 13 players who will go north and much agreement on who will start. My one difference with the position players listed is Aaron Hicks. I think he's enough of a prospect to not waste as a platoon center fielder starting less than twice a week. In that role, I would rather see non-prospect Shane Robinson, with the expectation that changes would occur before mid-season, ushering in Hicks, Rosario or maybe, just maybe, Byron Buxton.

 

I guess I wouldn't go with Plouffe in the cleanup spot or bat Dozier so low, but I think that is quibbling. The bullpen is a true crapshoot to project. I guess performance in Florida will matter for several of those guys.

[Thrylos]

This is Reusse's proposed lineup:

 

1-Danny Santana, ss. 2-Hunter, rf. 3-Joe Mauer, 1b. 4-Trevor Plouffe, 3b. 5-Oswaldo Arcia, lf. 6-Kennys Vargas, dh. 7-Brian Dozier, 2b. 8-Kurt Suzuki, c. 9-Jordan Schafer and Aaron Hicks, cf (in a left-right platoon)

 

So: Out Willingham in Hunter, and out Correia in Santana will make a 92 loss team into an 80 loss team?

And with at least 4 hitters (Santana, Dozier, Suzuki, Schafer) having career seasons in 2014, and with Hughes having a near career season.

[Linus]

I agree with you Stringer about the lineup in general and Hicks specifically.

Reusse was also very adamant that players, regardless of age, were going to have to perform to earn their playing time, regardless of age.

 

While it kind of flies in the face of "development" I kind of like it. There has been a whole bunch of losing going on here and it is time to start having some expecations.

[big dog]

This is Reusse's proposed lineup:

 

1-Danny Santana, ss. 2-Hunter, rf. 3-Joe Mauer, 1b. 4-Trevor Plouffe, 3b. 5-Oswaldo Arcia, lf. 6-Kennys Vargas, dh. 7-Brian Dozier, 2b. 8-Kurt Suzuki, c. 9-Jordan Schafer and Aaron Hicks, cf (in a left-right platoon)

 

So: Out Willingham in Hunter, and out Correia in Santana will make a 92 loss team into an 80 loss team?

And with at least 4 hitters (Santana, Dozier, Suzuki, Schafer) having career seasons in 2014, and with Hughes having a near career season.

So: Mauer, Plouffe, Arcia, and Dozier have better years (Dozier's "career year" came in a pretty brief career).  Vargas is better than Cola, etc.  And Hicks/Shafer '15 is better than Hicks '14.  And Nolasco reverts to career average.  That should make some differences, too.

[youngpadawan]

I think with Molitor in this year we could see some significant changes to the order.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So: Mauer, Plouffe, Arcia, and Dozier have better years (Dozier's "career year" came in a pretty brief career).  Vargas is better than Cola, etc.  And Hicks/Shafer '15 is better than Hicks '14.  And Nolasco reverts to career average.  That should make some differences, too.

Cola was only with the team thru may, no hicks in 15 better than 14? Really?

[big dog]

Cola was only with the team thru may, no hicks in 15 better than 14? Really?

Who knows? Willy wasn't much of a dh, neither was Morales. CF wasn't exactly a strength last year. It's all just guessing.

[Kwak]

The premise of "money was spent to win now" seems valid, exspecially when juxtaposed with the October proclamation of ~$85MM payroll "should be enough".  The extra $20MM has (and it should have) expectations attached.  My guess:  a July fire sale in Minneapolis.

[stringer bell]

The premise of "money was spent to win now" seems valid, exspecially when juxtaposed with the October proclamation of ~$85MM payroll "should be enough".  The extra $20MM has (and it should have) expectations attached.  My guess:  a July fire sale in Minneapolis.

Yup, that's probably the most likely scenario.  I think the Twins owe it to their fans and the players to try.  We certainly can debate whether the money was spent wisely, but going over $100M is competitive, and clubs with lesser salaries were contenders last year. 

[Shane Wahl]

vs. RH: Santana, Mauer, Arcia, Vargas, Dozier, Plouffe, Hunter, Suzuki, Hicks (Schafer some)

vs. LH: Santana, Mauer, Dozier, Plouffe, Hunter, Vargas, Arcia, Pinto, Hicks

[Willihammer]

I think Reusse has sticker shock. The FA outlays have come with the free money from ESPN and MLBAM. Not to mention that payroll is still lower than it was 5 seasons ago while the rest of baseball has chugged along at ~13% inflation. 171m is just not that much money anymore.

 

And I know Reusse is at war with math but even he should realize that 230 PAs (101 against southpaws) is nothing to platoon a guy over. Certainly not a switch hitter whose minor league splits (1300 PAs) are almost nil.

[stringer bell]

I agree with Reusse about Vargas to a point.  It wasn't just the numbers against LH pitching, Vargas did not look good facing southpaws most of the time.  Getting Pinto some extra starts against left handers makes sense for Pinto and really doesn't seal Vargas' fate.  As a switch hitter, Vargas would face plenty of left handed relievers and start as the DH well over 2/3s of the time.  If Vargas hits well against those lefty relievers, he'll get his starts against both. 

[Willihammer]

Vargas recorded the first and 9th hardest hit balls of the year against lefthanders (the 120 mph shot off Kazmir and the 117 mph shot off Doolittle). As of Aug 9, that was after over 100,000 records. Vargas cracked the top ten twice in his 8th game on the job. I don't know what you saw but IMO that is not a guy I want sitting. Ever.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That lineup looks awfully slow. If Mauer is going to become strictly a walk machine (not saying he will, but) he will need to bat second. Dozier needs to be 2 or 3 if only for some speed. Otherwise I think we'll need to increase our power significantly with a slow lineup like that. Maybe it's not that slow but it look slow on paper.

 

Though with Molitor I'm guessing we'll see one or two things happen we aren't expecting.

[Platoon]

The premise of "money was spent to win now" seems valid, exspecially when juxtaposed with the October proclamation of ~$85MM payroll "should be enough".  The extra $20MM has (and it should have) expectations attached.  My guess:  a July fire sale in Minneapolis.

.

 

Reusse is an adept baseball guy. He likes baseball at all levels, from town ball on up. I always thought his observations are pretty astute. So I agree with Patrick, as I agree with Thrylos, and Kwak. In essence the Twins have kind of painted themselves into a corner. Normally in spring you sell false hope, the Twins have somehow managed to pay $20m to purchase false hope. In an almost impossible stroke of genius they worsened their terrible outfield, they are contemplating sending their young talented arms to Rochester so they can start some of the past mistakes they made in desperation, and appear to be hinging their hope on the seldom successful "no regression" theory. Never has a 90 plus loss team, with a poor defense and mediocre pitching staff seemed to have so few spots up for grabs. Maybe that fire sale is not such a bad thing. This roster reminds me of entering a Dodge Caravan in the Indy 500. It's dependable, it will last a long time, but you will always end up last.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll personally be a bit disappointed if they cannot find room for Escobar.  I'm not sold on Santana repeating personally, and I think defense at SS is going to take a hit in the short term with Santana at SS.  The Twins were on the unlucky side of things last year, so I do think that 80 wins is pretty reasonable.  The OF defense scares me a bit though.  The question at hand is whether or not Hunter presents a pretty decent upgrade on Hammer defensively.  I'd like to hope that's the case, but I'm not certain it will.  I'm really hoping that the presence of Hunter helps Hicks and Arcia defensively. 

 

As for Hicks, if he is plan A (gag), it probably wouldn't hurt to reduce his exposure to righties early on to get him some confidence. 

 

As for regression, I think Santana in particular is going to get hit hard.  Hughes will regress a little I'm guessing, but I don't think it's going to be massive.  Vargas is a risk, but I think he'll ultimately be fine (so long as he finds the plate discipline he left in NB)  I think a case can be made for far more of the good kind of regression in Mauer, Nolasco, May, Plouffe, Dozier (yes, I think he gets a bit better), Gibson, and Hicks.  The amount remains to be seen, but that should offset the bad kind by more than enough. 

[ashbury]

 Maybe that fire sale is not such a bad thing. This roster reminds me of entering a Dodge Caravan in the Indy 500. It's dependable, it will last a long time, but you will always end up last.

So after the 1983 season and its 92 losses, on the heels of a 100+ loss season the year before, you'd have backed up the truck and cleared out the Twins roster of all those losers, and tried a new direction?

[jorgenswest]

So after the 1983 season and its 92 losses, on the heels of a 100+ loss season the year before, you'd have backed up the truck and cleared out the Twins roster of all those losers, and tried a new direction?

The Twin did clear out the veterans a few years earlier trading or allowing to become free agents Borgmann, Goltz, Zahn, Marshall, Cubbage, Morales, Landreaux, Jackson, Koosman and Powell in 1980-1981. They did not sign or get back in trade any decline decline phase players. Instead they went very young with an average age of 25 and 26 in 1982 and 1983. Those players grew into the core of some successful teams. They did a similar purge after 1998 going from one of their oldest roster to one of their youngest in 1999-2000.

 

The last 4 years isn't disimmilar from the mid 90s where they continued to bring in decline phase veterans as short term patches hoping to be competitive. It really wasn't until after they cleared house that they laid the foundation for the string of success in the 2000s.

 

So clearing out the roster is a strategy. The results in 1983 were a result of the clearing. They had backed up the truck a few years earlier though. The truck was back in 1998 and I have been looking for it again since 2011.

[KGB]

That lineup looks awfully slow. If Mauer is going to become strictly a walk machine (not saying he will, but) he will need to bat second. Dozier needs to be 2 or 3 if only for some speed. Otherwise I think we'll need to increase our power significantly with a slow lineup like that. Maybe it's not that slow but it look slow on paper.

 

Though with Molitor I'm guessing we'll see one or two things happen we aren't expecting.

 

I agree the lineup looks slow, but moving Mauer up in the lineup will not help.  He combines lack of speed with lack of power, but he should be able to drive in more than 50-60 runs a year.  I think Molitor needs to set an expectation of him driving in 80-100 RBI.  The expectation can't be just getting on base.

[stringer bell]

I agree the lineup looks slow, but moving Mauer up in the lineup will not help.  He combines lack of speed with lack of power, but he should be able to drive in more than 50-60 runs a year.  I think Molitor needs to set an expectation of him driving in 80-100 RBI.  The expectation can't be just getting on base.

Sacrilege! I thought OBP was the god we worshiped here at Twins Daily. Seriously, it can and will be said that Mauer is what he is, but that doesn't mean taking a walk in the late innings with a guy on deck who hasn't played a full season in the majors. I think Mauer has to produce more runs and he might need to make some adjustments to do so.

[mikelink45]

It is important to note that Reusse said this was what the beginning of the year should look like, not the end.  

 

Lets hope for good results from some vets and then trades to flip them for the future with Meyer, May finally getting in the rotation (and Berrios and Thorpe by the end of the year).  Develop, capitalize, trade..the Beane strategy.  

 

On Offense get Plouffe going and then really  get him going to another team and up with Sano, let Hicks play and then get Buxton.  Keep moving the big parts and get a return and then put in the future parts.

 

By the end of the year we should have Hughes, Meyer, May, Berrios, Thorpe and a line up of Buxton, Hunter (he will play out the year and Rosario will be next), Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Arcia, Dozier (flip him if you can and put in Polanco), Pinto, Santana.

[jimmer]

While Mauer absolutely had a bad year last year (I still think he was dealing with concussion issues) for his career Mauer hits extremely well with RISP.  On top of that, he normally has a wRC+ (weighted runs CREATED plus) over 130. 120 is above average for a 1B.

 

I think too many people are stuck thinking RBI is the best barometer for producing runs and it isn't. It's a stat that is way too dependent on other players. He creates runs, and has throughout his career.  People just focus hard when he doesn't produce and blow off the times he does. It doesn't matter how well he performs, it will never be enough.

[ken]

Have to admit, I don't know what the calculation is for wRC+, but when I look at simple calculations over Mauers career compared to the Twins team, he fall below the team average

                                               Mauer            Twins Average

R/OB                                        33.8%                  36.8%

RBI/H                                        44.7%                 47.0%

(R-HR)/OB                                30.3%                  32.1%

 

Considering he bats 3rd in the lineup, it's surprising that he below average in these stats compared to the team.  I agree that our #3 hitter should be in the 80-100 RBI area.  If he in the 1 or 2 slot, you would like him to score 80-100 runs.  I think it's okay to have RBI and Runs scored expectation for a player.

[ashbury]

Have to admit, I don't know what the calculation is for wRC+, but when I look at simple calculations over Mauers career compared to the Twins team, he fall below the team average

                                               Mauer            Twins Average

R/OB                                        33.8%                  36.8%

RBI/H                                        44.7%                 47.0%

(R-HR)/OB                                30.3%                  32.1%

Runs and RBI are created by a mixture of what the player does and what his teammates do.  OB and hits are more nearly determined by the player himself.  Since Joe is pretty good, you might expect these denominators to be large compared to his teammates, leading to lower ratios.  To make a ratio that teases out the player's contributions to runs, I'd be interested in denominators that have more to do with the teammates' contributions, such as some kind of measurement of numbers of opportunities, like how many PA were with men on base.  Said another way, you're normalizing against Joe's successes and calling them the opportunities.

[bird]

It is important to note that Reusse said this was what the beginning of the year should look like, not the end.  

 

Lets hope for good results from some vets and then trades to flip them for the future with Meyer, May finally getting in the rotation (and Berrios and Thorpe by the end of the year).  Develop, capitalize, trade..the Beane strategy.  

 

On Offense get Plouffe going and then really  get him going to another team and up with Sano, let Hicks play and then get Buxton.  Keep moving the big parts and get a return and then put in the future parts.

 

By the end of the year we should have Hughes, Meyer, May, Berrios, Thorpe and a line up of Buxton, Hunter (he will play out the year and Rosario will be next), Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Arcia, Dozier (flip him if you can and put in Polanco), Pinto, Santana.

Yeah,this is how I hope Ryan is trying to play it. Not a Ryder Truck rental , more an eBay/UPS thing. A number of those prospects are going to fail, but still. The thing that I'm still skeptical about more than anything is whether Ryan can dispose of eventual excess talent, like Plouffe, and get a decent return. Not his historical strong suit.

[jimmer]

People like to criticize Mauer's RBI totals, yet his career line w/RISP is .330/.456/.479. What's bad about that? Those are fantastic numbers. Who on the team does better? Perhaps it's the amount of opportunities with RISP that he's had that's been the problem?

 

And for those who want to judge him by runs scored, the man gets on base 40% of the time.  If he's not scoring, maybe it's because people who don't hit well with RISP are hitting behind him.  

 

And as if counting numbers like RBI and runs scored aren't bad enough indicators of position players productivity, due to how much other players performance factor into them, it's even worse for catchers due to games played compared to other position players.  Yet people have forever compared his counting numbers to position players across the board.

 

Players with high OBPs need to bat in the top three and if your best OBP guy also hits best with RISP, 3rd is probably the best spot.  For me, 2nd or 3rd is the best spot for him for those reasons, and if he continues to hit poor with RISP, like he has the last two years, then #2 spot is best.

 

I think his 2nd half of last season shows he's trending back up and I expect a close to normal year for Mauer next year and a complete return in 2016.

[KGB]

His percentage of scoring runner is dropping. 17% career and 14% in 2013 and 15% in 2014. But guess I must be old school in thinking the 3 position should drive in runs. Even setting an expectation for Mauer controversial. My bad

[jimmer]

His percentage of scoring runner is dropping. 17% career and 14% in 2013 and 15% in 2014. But guess I must be old school in thinking the 3 position should drive in runs. Even setting an expectation for Mauer controversial. My bad

Well, he hasn't hit well with RISP the last two seasons, which I stated in my post, so like I said in that post, I'd put him at #2 for that reason since he still gets a high OBP.  If he comes back to his normal self, as I expect him to do, he might very well deserve to move back to the 3 spot at some point at least for awhile.  If these young guys progress like we hope, he may very well end up needing to stay in the 2 spot.

 

My issue is judging players, any player (not Mauer specifically), on stats like RBI and runs, which are based too much on what other players do.

 

If he's getting on base at a very good clip, then he's doing his part by getting on base and not creating one of 27 outs allowed to a team. There is a direct correlation to getting on base and scoring runs. That's why OBP is such a valued stat.  More runners on base, more opportunities to score.

 

If he hits well with RISP and the cumulative numbers don't reflect that, then he is still doing his part.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twin did clear out the veterans a few years earlier trading or allowing to become free agents Borgmann, Goltz, Zahn, Marshall, Cubbage, Morales, Landreaux, Jackson, Koosman and Powell in 1980-1981. They did not sign or get back in trade any decline decline phase players. Instead they went very young with an average age of 25 and 26 in 1982 and 1983. Those players grew into the core of some successful teams. They did a similar purge after 1998 going from one of their oldest roster to one of their youngest in 1999-2000.

 

The last 4 years isn't disimmilar from the mid 90s where they continued to bring in decline phase veterans as short term patches hoping to be competitive. It really wasn't until after they cleared house that they laid the foundation for the string of success in the 2000s.

 

So clearing out the roster is a strategy. The results in 1983 were a result of the clearing. They had backed up the truck a few years earlier though. The truck was back in 1998 and I have been looking for it again since 2011.

The problem with comparing 1982 & 1999 to 2011 is that the Twins didn't have good young prospects to fill a roster in 2011.

 

If the Twins ship out all the vets in 2011, who plays? Cole DeVries, Chris Parmelee, & Co? You could argue that tanking hard and fast is the right course but there are huge flaws with comparing 2011 to 1982/1999 because the situation was considerably different. There weren't any Hrbeks, Gaettis, Hunters, or Koskies available in 2011.

[jorgenswest]

The problem with comparing 1982 & 1999 to 2011 is that the Twins didn't have good young prospects to fill a roster in 2011.

If the Twins ship out all the vets in 2011, who plays? Cole DeVries, Chris Parmelee, & Co? You could argue that tanking hard and fast is the right course but there are huge flaws with comparing 2011 to 1982/1999 because the situation was considerably different. There weren't any Hrbeks, Gaettis, Hunters, or Koskies available in 2011.

They still don't need to sign decline phase guys. Those players guarantee a cycle of mediocrity. They could have given the younger players they had longer more consistent looks. Giving away worley when he isn't even taking a spot on the 40 and giving innings to Correia who has no possibility of upside in one of many things they could have done differently. Why not seek only guys with upside on the waiver wire than use a record number of thirty year olds last year? If only 1 in 10 is JD Martinez, they are better off long term.

 

Even if they sign guys and they do well, they are allowed to trade them. Why not sell high on Suzuki, Willingham, Burton, or Doumit. Instead they get one good year and nothing long term. How many good years out of 8 will they get out of Santana and Nolasco?

 

The Twins have consciously chosen to patch with decline phase players that have no upside and are worse off going into 2015. Had they instead gone exclusively with upside guys, they would have lost more games. They would also have a few more pieces with team control to go along with better picks in the draft.

 

How many starts would the 82 or 99 Twins have invested in May and Meyer? How much major league catching experience would Pinto have had he been on those teams? Would those teams have given Buxton or Rosario or Sano a chance to win a job or would they sign Hunter?