2015 SS and CF

[jay]

SS candidates: Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez

CF candidates: Danny Santana, Jordan Schafer, Aaron Hicks

 

Quotes from earlier in the offseason had the new head coach, Paul Molitor, saying that Santana was going to be the SS.  Most people here have run with that, but Terry Ryan is quoted by Sid in the Strib today and doesn't sound so convinced about who will play short:

 

“That’s still a little debate and [manager] Paul [Molitor] and the coaching staff will sort it out, but we have the capability of having a couple people play there, and Santana is one of them and Escobar is another,” he said. “If both of those guys are injured we can play Nunez over there, so we have enough depth. We’re going to sort that out in spring training, exactly who is going to play center and shortstop, but we have numbers to work with.”

 

TR goes on with his praise for Escobar:

 

“His best position seems to be short. He made all the plays that he should have last year. He had [35] doubles, and that’s impressive. He’s only [26] years old and doing well down in Venezuela. He’s a piece of this thing and he probably is going to put some pressure on people. It will be hard for Santana to put him out of work.”

 

So, who is going to be the shortstop and centerfielder out of spring training?

 

Put me down for Danny in center and Escobar at short with Schafer as the 4th OF, Nunez as the 25th man and Hicks in AAA.

[Linus]

I like the part about Hicks in AAA.  He still is a prospect but needs to succeed at AAA before we bring him back to the big leagues.

 

I would like Santana to play short because he has upside and good shortstops are hard to find - I'd like to see if we have one in Santana.

 

Having said all that, given the lack of CF options, my bet is Santana is in center by June 1.

[Boom Boom]

The problem I have with Santana in center is that the outfield defense is already going to be bad... Santana's ability to "run down his mistakes" isn't good enough for me. The Twins need a CF who doesn't make mistakes, and can run down the corner outfielder mistakes.

[bird]

It's certainly possible that Hicks finally comes to camp with an improved frame of mind, responds to coaching, and immediately straightens himself out at the plate. But my bet is Jordan beats him out for the 4th OF spot and Santana starts the season in CF.

 

This doesn't bother me at all. Santana continued to improve out there and at the end of the season looked fairly serviceable to me. But the real reason I'm fine with it is that I'm assuming Buxton is as special as the evaluators say he is and that he's on the field at mid-season or so, flanked by Hicks in one corner and a slightly better Arcia in the other, with Torii getting primers on the start of his coaching career in the dugout.

 

This might be good. Escobar has a chance to be a valuable trade chip should Polanco show he's ready.

[jorgenswest]

Can Santana play average or above defense at shortstop? The scouting reports coming through spoke of his inconsistency. Escobar can play average or better defense at 3 positions. He didn't get to the majors or move so quickly through the minors with his bat. Punto always had plenty of playing time and escobar could have a similarly long career. A move of Santana to SS could be a defensive downgrade. In a year where the Twins are projected to win around 70 games, it is worth investing the time in Santana to see if he can play SS. If not, a career similar to Bonifacio would be an asset to the team.

 

Schafer has had plenty of time and shown that he is a below average center fielder. Reports from Houston and Atlanta spoke of his trouble with paths to the ball. I have linked this reports a few times previously. With his speed had he played average or better defense in CF, he would not have been DFA'd twice. Like a lot of outfielders who are DFA'd, he doesn't have enough defense for CF or enough offense for a corner. He is good enough to hang around as a 4th or 5th OF on a bad team until the roster crunch (need for a 13th pitcher) forces a move or someone better is ready. His salary may be enough that no one will claim him and he will accept an assignment to Rochester providing some depth.

 

Hicks is valuable to a major league team right now. His bat against left handed pitching and defense in a corner are good enough to be a platoon player. A role as a 4th OF while platooning with Arcia in LF would be a good fit. He is young enough to improve his bat for the left side and routes in the OF. A team with a projection like the Twins can afford to invest another 60 games as CF. Worst case, he falls into a platoon/4th OF/defensive replacement role.

 

Nunez has had plenty of opportunity. He doesn't have near the glove to play SS. He isn't valuable as a utility without the ability to play 2B. In the days of 10-11 man pitching staffs, teams could afford to carry a platoon 3B or a guy that could play 3B and LF from the bench. That is role that would fit Nunez. I don't see the fit with the Twins. I do like the thought that he would be in Rochester ready to fill in at 3B if Plouffe is injured and Sano is not ready. He is out of options and probably would pass through waivers with the volume of players that will be DFA'd to open the season.

 

Best investment for long term would be Santana at SS, Hicks in CF and Escobar as utility. Give it until June 1 and reassess.

[Boom Boom]

I guess I'm not counting on major contributions from Buxton this year. He's had less than half of a cup of coffee at AA, and he's been hurt more often than not in his pro career.

 

I'm not saying he's not a great prospect or that he's injury prone... just saying don't count your chickens before they're hatched. For my money I'd like to see a true centerfielder out there, not a part-timer or a work in process

[Willihammer]

Put me down for Danny in center and Escobar at short with Schafer as the 4th OF, Nunez as the 25th man and Hicks in AAA.

Yeah I was a little disappointed when Molitor said Santana would be the SS. To me this arrangement makes more sense. Good to hear that it's not set in stone yet.

[nicksaviking]

If you want your nine best hitters in the lineup, Santana in CF and Escobar at SS is the way to go I guess. Of course that's based on last year's numbers and those two are pretty big regression candidates, Santana in particular. I really am not trying to be a pessimist, but I suspect this situation will play itself out in short order due to dissapointing production. Hopefully only from one, not both.

[Ben Noble]

 

Put me down for Danny in center and Escobar at short with Schafer as the 4th OF, Nunez as the 25th man and Hicks in AAA.

 

I'm cool with this as long as Santana continues to get reps at SS, too...as well as LF and perhaps even 2B/3B. I just don't think it's clear yet what Santana's long-term role is; it could very well be as a super-UT.

[jimmer]

If you want your nine best hitters in the lineup, Santana in CF and Escobar at SS is the way to go I guess. Of course that's based on last year's numbers and those two are pretty big regression candidates, Santana in particular. I really am not trying to be a pessimist, but I suspect this situation will play itself out in short order due to dissapointing production. Hopefully only from one, not both.

I'm glad to see that even though Gardy is gone, it's not necessarily the end of infielders or catchers playing outfield :-)

[stringer bell]

If the Twins are deciding by past performance, Escobar must be in the starting lineup from Day 1.  He had a fine season with the bat and demonstrated consistency and a strong arm at short.  Santana deserves to start somewhere and there is an XL hole in center field.  It makes sense to me.  Hicks hasn't performed well enough to garner a spot on the 25-man roster and we have seen two seasons in a row that his spring training performance is no predictor for his play when the games start. 

 

Defensively, I think Santana was approaching league-average by the end of the season.  Put him out there for another 50 games and he will be average or better. 

[Rosterman]

Hicks in the minors. He needs to show that he can play in the majors, not just in spring training. He has to step up. Next year will be his out-of-options year, so he'll have to stick from them on or move on.

 

Santana in CF. Escobar at SS. You have Buston in the wings. You may have Gordon fast-tracked and here in 2017. Does Santana move to short in 2016 and Escobar elsewhere. Is Santana the trading chip of Polanco or someone else shines in the minors. Do you keep either as a reserve for a few years. 

 

If you look at the Twins for 2015, the playing roster. We need a viable back-up catcher who can sit on the bench (not Pinto). We need a centerfielder who will keep us in the game (that would be Santana based on 2014). We need a shortstop then, and Escobar proved himself in 2014. We need  a backup if either falters...we play musical chairs and have Schafer, we have (ugh) Nunez). We have to worry about backup for Mauer. We HAVE to worry about Vargas, is he for real. We have to still worry about Arcia who might need more seasoning.

 

Of course, that is what spring training is all about.

 

ANYONE NOTICE THAN SIGNED BACK ALLAN DE SAN MIGUEL for Rochester!

[Brandon]

I feel Escobar did enough last year to justify a starting job.  If he can continue to hit like last season then his stock goes up and we have the option of keeping him or trading him for something of value....keeping the Liriano trade chain going and paying more and more dividends. 

 

I also believe Santana will still be a solid offensive player.  Even if he regresses I doubt he drops below .280 Average with 30 2bs and 25-30 SBs too. 

 

Escobar should only be on the bench only if Hicks shows enough and are convinced enough that he can out produce Escobar in Spring and then continue to do so in the majors on a fairly short leash. 

[h2oface]

I guess we will find out if Molitor is a manager that has the freedom to manage as he sees fit, or if Ryan influences him to not do what he wants to do. I hate to see Santana "punished" because they didn't address the centerfield debacle. Escobar will get 400 at bats this year if he continues to improve. If Santana shines at short, it will be a great decision.  Plouffe, Santana, and Dozier will need spelled and there will be injuries. Escobar is just as much a candidate for regression as anyone else, if that is the way a fan likes to think. The bat will still be in his hand. He can make it so that Molitor can't keep him out of the lineup with his performance. And shame on him for not being able to play centerfield ;-). Santana is not a centerfielder, no matter how often he is played out of position.

[TheLeviathan]

I like the plan jay mentioned, but I'd really like to get Santana into whatever position he is bound for long term.  Sooner the better.

[spohner02]

I'm just looking ahead here a bit, but do we really want Santana playing a position he's really not going to play long term(center)? It seems to me there is a pretty good canidate in the system already to take over Centerfield in Target Field for a long time when he's ready.

[DocBauer]

I like Escobar. Strong off season last year, strong season, reportedly strong off season this year. He doesn't deserve to lose his spot....except Santana has even more athleticism and potential. This is a quandary we've been talking about for some time. Not sure we really have the answer yet. But if Ryan flat out won't make a move for a CF, then Santana in CF, primarily at least, and Escobar, again primarily, at SS makes the most baseball sense. We can hope Schafer is close to what we got last year and Hicks gets to begin the year in AAA.

 

If things unfold this way, the one thing nobody has brought up yet is, there is now another open spot on the bench. An open sport for.................................?

[Mike Sixel]

Play for 2015, or play for the future, with Santana? That's really the question, isn't it? Because, by 2016, Buxton s/b your CF. If he's not, something has gone very wrong.

 

So, do you really want to put Santana in CF, and further delay his growth as a SS? I don't think so. I think you want Santana wherever you expect him to be long term. SS, LF, whatever it is, he should be there as much as possible this year imo.

[nicksaviking]

Play for 2015, or play for the future, with Santana? That's really the question, isn't it? Because, by 2016, Buxton s/b your CF. If he's not, something has gone very wrong.

 

So, do you really want to put Santana in CF, and further delay his growth as a SS? I don't think so. I think you want Santana wherever you expect him to be long term. SS, LF, whatever it is, he should be there as much as possible this year imo.

 

If the club is fairly certain Santana is going to be the long term SS, I agree.  If on the other hand there is a strong possibility that Escobar continues to hit, Polanco proves to be a better all around SS, Gordon shoots through the system or some other situation has some strong plausibility, I'd actually be OK letting Santana not only get more CF time, but perhaps get a shot at other positions and see if he can fill some kind of super utility role.  Everybody loves a Ben Zobrist type of guy. 

 

I long ago let myself think of 2015 as a development season.  It doesn't mean the team won't compete, but if Santana isn't going to be the long term fixture at SS, I'm fine with seeing if he can beef up his resume. 

[Mike Sixel]

So if three unlikely things happen? You don't KNOW any of those things at the end of spring training, right? 

 

I did mention LF as a possible destination......if they think he's Zobrist (which seems unlikely, since he's a bit unique in his actual ability to do all that he does), fine. But how likely is it he's that, vs helpful at one position? 

[TheDean]

If the club is fairly certain Santana is going to be the long term SS, I agree.  If on the other hand there is a strong possibility that Escobar continues to hit, Polanco proves to be a better all around SS, Gordon shoots through the system or some other situation has some strong plausibility, I'd actually be OK letting Santana not only get more CF time, but perhaps get a shot at other positions and see if he can fill some kind of super utility role.  Everybody loves a Ben Zobrist type of guy. 

 

I long ago let myself think of 2015 as a development season.  It doesn't mean the team won't compete, but if Santana isn't going to be the long term fixture at SS, I'm fine with seeing if he can beef up his resume. 

 

I think this makes the most sense. It's a difficult thing to judge to be sure, gauging the talent in the pipeline and making lineup/roster decisions on it now. The fact that they retained Nunez makes me think that they could be leaning toward Escobar at SS and Danny in CF. If it were me, I would have non-tendered Nunez if Escobar was going to be Utility. Seems redundant to have two similar Utility guys on the bench, neither with the best stick for PH situations. 4-man bench of Jordan, Josmil, and the Eddies? I think the team improves a lot with Hicks in Rochester, and your bench being Jordan, Josmil, Nunez, and _____.

 

Subtle difference, but it subs Escobar for Hicks in the lineup and hopefully improves the bench. Maybe that fourth guy brings a bat or maybe he's just a 3rd catcher so Josmil can get some ABs (if Molitor is scared of DHing or PHing him).

[beckmt]

You have to play both for this year and the future.  Santana is not likely to be the SS of the future 5 years from now, so make him a super utility type and worry about next year next year.  I hope Nolasco rebounds so he can be traded for more prospects and some of the pitching prospects get major league time this year.  If the Twins compete, then you hold on to players and try this year.  I just do not see this happening this year.  You also clear a spot to sign a Zimmermann or a Cueto at the end  of the year.  This is what I hope the Twins do.

[Mike Sixel]

Why is Santana not likely to be the SS 5 years from now?

 

I think you are dreaming on the pitching thing, but it's a nice dream.

[jimmer]

Why is Santana not likely to be the SS 5 years from now?

 

I think you are dreaming on the pitching thing, but it's a nice dream.

I'm guessing because people figure Gordon will be and Santana will be at the FA point. I wasn't fan of getting Gordon when we got him, so I'm not in that camp.

[jay]

Play for 2015, or play for the future, with Santana? That's really the question, isn't it? Because, by 2016, Buxton s/b your CF. If he's not, something has gone very wrong.

 

So, do you really want to put Santana in CF, and further delay his growth as a SS? I don't think so. I think you want Santana wherever you expect him to be long term. SS, LF, whatever it is, he should be there as much as possible this year imo.

 

I don't think we can accurately assume Danny is the SS of the future and has to play there to start 2015.  It's more like the ambiguous... "it depends". 

 

Could he be the long-term answer at SS?  Sure, but...

...it depends on Escobar, who seems to have earned more time at SS based on 2014 and could very well turn out to be the solution there.

...it depends on Buxton, who while he is an elite prospect, isn't our CF just yet.

...it depends on Hicks, who hasn't had extended success at AAA or any in MLB to clearly deserve additional MLB playing time just yet.

...it depends on Schafer, who might be a decent 4th OF but hasn't shown starter-type production really ever.

...and most importantly, it depends on Danny Santana.

 

It seems pretty clear that Danny Santana is the best solution in CF to start 2015.  As long as he's getting MLB playing time to keep learning, I can live with not knowing whether or not that's his permanent position.  He hasn't even proven yet that he's a permanent MLBer.

[Shane Wahl]

Santana at SS, Hicks in CF (with some significant Schaffer platooning). Escobar can get plenty of opportunities playing the three infield positions. Both Dozier and Plouffe can use more rest, anyway.

 

I will say that I don't really understand how last year wasn't spent giving Danny Santana some time in LF to learn it well enough to have another speedy guy out there with a good arm. The option of Santana in LF with Hicks in CF would have been very nice once a week.

 

But anyway, I know that we all love Escobar. Escobar deserves to get some time. He will also be prime trade bait.

[bird]

The Twins have a better idea of what they have in Santana than we might think, IMO. If it's best for the team to plunk him in CF for as much as a year, big deal. He's hardly going to be ruined, and his value increases dramatically with proven flexibility. They already know, I think, that his SS play won't garner any Gold Gloves. They probably view him as a work in progress, similar to Plouffe, defensively.

 

Add the fact that Polanco (and Rosario for that matter), are more highly-regarded prospects than Santana was. Both may be a half-year away. And the icing on the cake is that Escobar is a legit player at age 25. Why worry about how they use Santana at the start of 2015?

[jimmer]

I'm skeptical of Eduardo Escobar.  I don't think one quality year proves he's a legitimate starting player for sure. At this point, I'd be happy if he could come close to replicating what he did last year and was a good utility guy.

[Mike Sixel]

JJ Hardy sucks at defense, according to the Twins, and Suzuki is really good at it, so you'll forgive me, I hope, if I am skeptical of their ability to judge defense. 

[HitInAPinch]

I'm just looking ahead here a bit, but do we really want Santana playing a position he's really not going to play long term(center)? It seems to me there is a pretty good canidate in the system already to take over Centerfield in Target Field for a long time when he's ready.

It's tough trying to avoid the 'what if' game with these 2 guys.  The catch is, Escobar had a good season at the plate and in the field.  Problem is [for Santana], Escobar only plays the 1 position:  SS.  The 'what if's' are about the same for the both of them:

 

1.  Was their hitting an aberration?

2.  Fielding their position

 

The only person in this mix that has at least some questions on defense is Santana.  At least from what I've read, he's more of a question mark on defense, at both positions, than Escobar.  And frankly, for a guy that got thrown into CF he was pretty darn good.  I just can't see moving Escobar out of SS after what he did last season. 

 

CF Santana

SS Escobar

4th OF Schaefer

ML for the entire year:  Hicks, Buxton and Sano