Article: Buxton and Sano: Maybe the Time is Now

[Brananorama]

I want them up as soon as possible. If that's Opening Day, fantastic. If it's mid-June and they can help is contend, even better. Whenever I think about bringing them up early, I look at Arcia.

 

Arcia's got a LOT to learn, but he's a really good player right now with a lot of potential. Since we didn't have a right fielder, what did we do? We brought him up, and now he's developing WHILE contributing at the major league level. I think if we want any semblance of hope for next year, Buxton and Sano should be part of that as soon as possible.

[Shane Wahl]

I think the decision should be made regardless of how they actually do in the fall/winter leagues. That they play substantially is what matters there. As such I would start Sano with the Twins in 2015, absolutely. I would then wait on Buxton for a couple months of AA-ball, just to get him going. And he would have to be terrible there for me to hold him back. So, I generally agree with Jim here. The Twins now need, absolutely, to let it ride. For those raising Hicks-kind of concerns . . . these two are way, way better than Aaron Hicks. And I would submit Danny Santana as being absolutely similar to Hicks in terms of non-domination of the minors, and yet . . . that has gone very differently! I would say that by mid-June the Twins should be rolling out a lineup of:

 

Buxton, CF

Mauer, 1B

Dozier, 2B

Vargas, DH

Sano, 3B

Arcia, RF

Pinto, C (Suzuki isn't going to perform offensively, I guarantee you)
Plouffe, LF (potentially)

Santana, SS

 

That's absurdly good, if given some time to develop.

Edited October 6, 2014 by Shane Wahl

[Shane Wahl]

Or basically switch Dozier and Sano, whatever. Add Escobar, Suzuki, Herrmann, and Schafer/Parmelee/Nunez (while noting that Plouffe is also, in this situation a clear backup 3B as well).

[Linus]

I want them up as soon as possible. If that's Opening Day, fantastic. If it's mid-June and they can help is contend, even better. Whenever I think about bringing them up early, I look at Arcia.

 

Arcia's got a LOT to learn, but he's a really good player right now with a lot of potential. Since we didn't have a right fielder, what did we do? We brought him up, and now he's developing WHILE contributing at the major league level. I think if we want any semblance of hope for next year, Buxton and Sano should be part of that as soon as possible.

Two minor quibbles here: Arcia raked at AAA before being called up, which makes his situation different than Sano / Buxton who have not played at that level yet.  I would also say that to describe Arcia as a "really good player right now" is not accurate.  The Twins can roll these guys out there now because they are not contending but on a better team, Arcia would be working these bugs out of his game in the minors.

[Seth Stohs]

At the very least, shouldn't we see how Buxton does in the AFL?

 

Sure, that would be another data point that we don't have right now. He'll get another 80-100 at bats that will help tell the story.

[chaderic20]

My preference would be to let Sano prove he's healthy in the winter league and spring training.  If he does, then bring him north right away.  If not, let him work it out in AAA.

For Buxton, I'd be a little more cautious, just because he effectively has not played above High A.  Even if he kills it in the AFL, I'd like to give him a little time at either AA or AAA.  I would have a pretty quick trigger on bringing him up though if he's performing at all adequately.  But if he struggles, either because of competition level or lingering concussion effects, he's at least in a low-pressure place to work through it.

I think that's a perfectly reasonable middle-of-the-road approach between the cautious and aggressive approaches to these two.

[Dantes929]

I want them up as soon as possible. If that's Opening Day, fantastic. If it's mid-June and they can help is contend, even better. Whenever I think about bringing them up early, I look at Arcia.

 

Arcia's got a LOT to learn, but he's a really good player right now with a lot of potential. Since we didn't have a right fielder, what did we do? We brought him up, and now he's developing WHILE contributing at the major league level. I think if we want any semblance of hope for next year, Buxton and Sano should be part of that as soon as possible.

Arcia batted .314 in 1800 plate appearances. Sano was on a very similar path with 1600 at bats until injury. Even then, I am fine with another 200 at bats before bringing him up. Buxton has 900 at bats with pretty much a full season lost. Trout had 1300 at bats before promotion. That seems like a reasonable career arc as well. Both scenarios have us seeing Buxton and Sano in 2015, maybe by June or July. That IS fast tracking.

[TheDean]

I'll be curious to hear reports on Sano at the hot corner in the DWL.  He was seen as "shaky, but improving" with regards to his defense at 3B before his injury. With a ligament replacement, how authoritative will he be with his throws to first? Will all the power be there, but missing some accuracy?  Will the accuracy be there without power?

 

Never thought I'd be saying it, but he could end up being a significant defensive dropoff from Plouffe since he's coming off TJ surgery. I think that he might deserve some time at AAA if the DWL isn't enough to get him into the groove of fielding tough ones at third.  It could potentially be a situation akin to Pinto this year; he could end up on an assignment to Rochester solely on a defensive basis.  DHing won't do him any good in terms of fielding, and it's occupied by Vargas/Pinto anyway.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I don't think Buxton and Sano "solves" the outfield issue. I don't think this moves precludes TR from signing/trading for a top tier LF and signing a top of the rotation type starting pitcher, but adding Buxton and Sano plus a couple key players certainly helps turn this team around quickly.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'll be curious to hear reports on Sano at the hot corner in the DWL.  He was seen as "shaky, but improving" with regards to his defense at 3B before his injury. With a ligament replacement, how authoritative will he be with his throws to first? Will all the power be there, but missing some accuracy?  Will the accuracy be there without power?

 

Never thought I'd be saying it, but he could end up being a significant defensive dropoff from Plouffe since he's coming off TJ surgery. I think that he might deserve some time at AAA if the DWL isn't enough to get him into the groove of fielding tough ones at third.  It could potentially be a situation akin to Pinto this year; he could end up on an assignment to Rochester solely on a defensive basis.  DHing won't do him any good in terms of fielding, and it's occupied by Vargas/Pinto anyway.

Vargas might be the first baseman with Sano the DH, it's hard to tell, the point is, more talent is better than less.

[twinssouth]

In 2 weeks we'll see how Buxton does in the AFL. If he can shake the rust off, have a strong Fall, then go for it. His defense is already MLB ready, far superior to Hicks. After all, Hrbeck went from high A to the Majors and did ok. I think Sano needs more time. Seems he has a half season in AA and ave. was in the 240's, with a lot of HR's, did show improvement in his defense.

 

If you take the aggressive approach, then Meyer has to be starting the season with the Twins. In my opinion, he's more ready then Buxton or Sano and better than most free agents not named Lester, Scherzer, Shields. 2015 starters;

Hughes

Meyers

Gibson

FA

May, Nolasco and Millone fight it out for last spot.

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Buxton will help prevent runs better than anyone they will bring in. Bourjos? By the end of the year Buxton will be a better hitter than Bourjos and may be from day 1.

 

While I am on the side of those that say the a Twins should not worry about service tea. I won't argue them waiting a couple weeks to get the extra year.

[stringer bell]

While I don't doubt that Buxton will be a premium center fielder, I'm not convinced he is there now, especially after being inactive for almost a year.  It seems to me that Hicks was previewed as an excellent defender,  but he's not graded out as even above-average.

 

I am hoping that Buxton can shake off the rust quickly in the AFL.  I don't think there is any guarantee that Buxton will dominate in Arizona.  Obviously, it would be wonderful to have a premier talent in the lineup every day.

[Siehbiscuit]

At the end of 2013 there were very few who thought these two should be on the 2014 Opening Day roster. They are essentially in the EXACT same spot as they were at the end of the 2013 season!

 

Buxton was overwhelmed in ST last year and also didn't show very well last year in the AFL. Buxton can earn his way up this year, but he has got to blow the doors off the way Trout did (Trout was a late call-up in 2011 and struggled). Buxton wasn't ready after last year and with nearly an entire year off he needs to improve improve at the minor league level in 2015 with a late call up as an option.

 

Sano did get some talk of making the opening day roster, but was likely heading down to AA. Sano should be in the exact same spot as last year.

[SwainZag]

Players are alot more resilent than most give credit for.  Terrance Gore is playing for the Royals in the NLCS and played against Buxton, Walker, Kepler, Polanco, etc., in the 2012 Appy League Championship and all season for that matter.  He has a "particular set of skills"  (like Liam Neeson lol) that the Royals weren't afraid to utilize at the MLB level.  If he failed so what.  The kid knows his destiny as you said, and will be that much better when he does "arrive" with his complete skill set in tact.  If players know the pit falls that may hinder them throughout the way - They will bounce back just fine as they find their game at the MLB level.  It just takes some belief by the organization not to yo yo them to AAA to the MLB to AAA to MLB.  Let them learn on the job like all these Rookie NFL Quarterbacks.  Might not be pretty, but 2016 should be less of a learning curve for the team overall.

 

Gore also was never a big prospect, hasn't hit above .250 since Rookie ball and is on the Royals specifically for defense and his pinch running abilities.  

 

He has played in 13 games with Kansas City and has two official plate appearances, zero hits but has stolen 8 bases.  He isn't a future cornerstone for the franchise, he is a role player.  There's a huge difference between him and Buxton.

[nater79a]

Buxton will help prevent runs better than anyone they will bring in. Bourjos? By the end of the year Buxton will be a better hitter than Bourjos and may be from day 1.

 

 

 

I've been advocating that the Twins bring in a player like Bourjos to help with the BABIP issues that the pitchers are having.  But yes, he wouldn't hit like Buxton.  No question.  The good part is that Bourjos would be a tradeable asset once Buxton arrives at mid-season.

[SwainZag]

I've been advocating that the Twins bring in a player like Bourjos to help with the BABIP issues that the pitchers are having.  But yes, he wouldn't hit like Buxton.  No question.  The good part is that Bourjos would be a tradeable asset once Buxton arrives at mid-season.

 

I agree very much so. Bourjos could also probably be had on a small, short term contract which is easily displaced when Buxton shows he is ready.  With the way the Twins offense scored runs this year, especially in the August/Sept months, they could probably sacrifice a little to have a light hitting CF if they play defense like Bourjos.

[LaBombo]

What a bunch of nervous nellies!

 

Of course, we see how these two do in fall/winter ball. But really... "wait 2 months"? Why?

 

I mean, if you want to claim neither guy is ready and might need the better part of the year in the minors to be better seasoned, OK, I can at least understand that, even if I don't necessarily agree right now.

 

And don't even go down the "service time" path, please. Not with potential superstars. You worry about service time for guys you think might play out the string through the arbitration process. If these two aren't locked up long-term well before anyone worries about service time, something has gone terribly wrong.

 

You're going to have a new manager and new coaches, but if you want to regain your fan base and prove you are immediately setting out to get the "next wave" of players in place to start being competitive, you don't fool around with your next two superstars by having them cool their heels for 2 months. Especially when one of them plays a position that, should he not open with the Twins, is a potentially fatal gaping defensive hole.

Miguel Sano did not play baseball in 2014 after just half a season at AA in 2013.  Byron Buxton had just over 100 AB's in A ball and hit .240/.313/.405.  How those facts scream "Start the season in the majors" is beyond me.

 

But you're right.  There's no need to need to go down the service time path with any players any more now that we know that impending free agency is such a critical factor that some agents will not allow their on-the-clock players to sign an "extension" that goes beyond free agency eligibility, and at least one will not even allow an extension UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

 

In other words, service time doesn't just matter, it is a powerful economic force in determining future contract status.  Period.

[jay]

Sano landed at #2 on Fangraphs' list of projected WAR in 2015 for prospects. Buxton didn't make the top 10.

 

https://twitter.com/fangraphs/status/519585235172728833

[TheLeviathan]

Sano landed at #2 on Fangraphs' list of projected WAR in 2015 for prospects. Buxton didn't make the top 10.

 

https://twitter.com/fangraphs/status/519585235172728833

 

Makes sense since, again, Buxton hasn't played in basically a year and at A ball for most of it.  He and Sano are not on the same plane of projectability for the big leagues and it's not even close.

[jay]

I'd love to say stick Sano on the MLB squad to start the year. However, I don't see how you can force one of your MLB regulars who has been solid and improved defensively off his position for an unproven rookie with defensive questions who just missed an entire year. I don't think you'd find a precedent for that in ANY organization.

 

The only way I can see Sano in MLB to start the year is in an OF corner. However, you then end up with Sano and Arcia in the corners and certainly haven't addressed OF defense.

[drjim]

Miguel Sano did not play baseball in 2014 after just half a season at AA in 2013. Byron Buxton had just over 100 AB's in A ball and hit .240/.313/.405. How those facts scream "Start the season in the majors" is beyond me.

 

But you're right. There's no need to need to go down the service time path with any players any more now that we know that impending free agency is such a critical factor that some agents will not allow their on-the-clock players to sign an "extension" that goes beyond free agency eligibility, and at least one will not even allow an extension UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

 

In other words, service time doesn't just matter, it is a powerful economic force in determining future contract status. Period.

These two points are such an obvious rebuttal to what is a pretty silly idea.

 

I do think Sano will force his way to the bigs pretty quick. I'm less confident in Buxton. And that's ok.

[DocBauer]

My initial response is no. But I also offer a hint of "maybe" in my thoughts and opinion.

 

I also am very eager to see both. And more than likely, like almost every young player, there will be some growing pains. For instance, despite athleticism, talent and potential, former SS Sano will probably be a downgrade defensively from Plouffe initially. But consider Gaettit, Koskie, Plouffe himself and most young 3B you've ever seen. There is almost always a learning curve to continue development. And I don't think service time is going to be an issue either. So you lose one year for both players if you promote them early. Does anyone really think super talent youngsters like these two WON'T get locked up?

 

And I'm not going down the Hicks road either. Absolutely no insult to him as I still think he's very talented and has a lot of potential, but every ballplayer is different, and should be treated as such. And the effort, determination, attitude and somewhat proven ability to produce and adjust for both of these kids is outstanding! I think they have the "it" factor.

 

My reservations are very simple, lost playing time. Sano pretty much dominated his half season of AA in 2013 in every way but BA. But we all know BA doesn't always tell the whole story. And when you look at Sano's numbers there, it becomes clear. But, after missing an entire season, are a couple hundred, hopefully, AB's in the winter going to be enough to develop and shake off rust to be ready opening day? (Even allowing for some rough transition moments). Same with Buxton. At least he got to play some of 2014. But will AFL AB's be enough to develop and shake off rust to be ready?

 

I think Buxton actually has the better shot at jumping early simply because he played some this year, and defensively, it's probably easier to shake off rust and adjust for CF than 3B at any level, much less the ML level. I'm not dismissing the idea of sudden promotion, just tempering it.

[freshinthehouse]

Starting Buxton on the MLB team next spring is madness.  He has all of 3 at bats the AA level.  He OPSed .718 at A ball last year.  It's not like he was knocking the door down.  If we're just going to disregard the minors, why not just bring put all of our 1st round picks on the MLB squad as soon as they sign?  Let them learn at the MLB level, right?

 

Sano makes a bit more sense, but it's still a stretch.  The guy missed an entire year.  His defense at 3rd is far from a finished product.  If he looks like a beat in spring training, by all means bring him north.  But if not, he needs to get some time at the AAA level to knock some rust off.  I think it's unfair to him to force him into a situation that he's not ready for just because some fans are impatient.

 

And the service time is worth noting hear.  I don't buy the argument that you don't worry about it with bigtime prospects?  If not them, who do you worry about it for?  Smart teams use it to their advantage.  And despite what we all hope, it may take these two some time before they prove if they are worth longterm financial commitments.  If that's the case, the money scenario changes.  Negotiations are lot different if a player is under control for 4-5 more years compared to 3-4 more years.  And while money is not an issue right now (at least it shouldn't be), things could be different down the road.

[LaBombo]

These two points are such an obvious rebuttal to what is a pretty silly idea.

 

I do think Sano will force his way to the bigs pretty quick. I'm less confident in Buxton. And that's ok.

http://thesouloftheplot.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/abeautifulfriendship.jpg

[Kwak]

It's a bad idea.  I can't imagine a new manager agreeing to it either.

[jay]

Sounds like a pretty loud "NO" for April.

 

How loud will these forums get by June (2 months later) demanding for their call ups?

[tobi0040]

Sounds like a pretty loud "NO" for April.

 

How loud will these forums get by June (2 months later) demanding for their call ups?

I think most are louder about Buxton, giving the nature of his year.  But between now and June we will have 30 AZ fall league games and 50 or so minor league games.  If he plays like he did in 2013 I think pretty loud.

[Physics Guy]

Sounds like a pretty loud "NO" for April.

 

How loud will these forums get by June (2 months later) demanding for their call ups?

I would say that depends on what Plouffe, Hicks and Arcia are doing at that point.  The Twins' record would have a big part in that also.  I hope that the forums are "quiet" on the issue and they can call Buxton and Sano up when they are truly ready and the Twins have a need.

[drjim]

I would say that depends on what Plouffe, Hicks and Arcia are doing at that point.  The Twins' record would have a big part in that also.  I hope that the forums are "quiet" on the issue and they can call Buxton and Sano up when they are truly ready and the Twins have a need.

 

I would disagree with this. I don't think it matters in the least what those three are doing in regards to when Sano and Buxton come up, especially if they are lighting it up like we all hope they will.