14 games

[DaveW]

As we all know, the Twins have been...well...inconsistent as of late. So I believe that the Twins absolutely need to turn things around before the all-star break to go in with some sort of momentum to compete the rest of the way.

 

The Twinkies have 14 games before the all-star game and none of them are real easy. 3 at home vs an on fire Royals team, 4 at home against the always hated Yankees, 4 at Seattle who is playing good ball and 3 at the Rockies.

 

I think the Twins need to at the very least go 7-7 over these two weeks, however anything less than 8-6 would be a bit of a disappointment.

 

Here is how I see things shaking out, what say you?

 

2 out of 3 vs the Royals.

3 out of 4 vs the Yankees (we played them well in NY, now let's dominate them in TF)

2 out of 4 vs the Mariners (vs Felix is a sure loss, hopefully the Twins can win two of the other 3)

1 out of 3 @ the Rockies- I think this staff could be a disaster at Coors Field vs the Rockies lineup.

 

Prediction: 8-6. Hopefully they go 9-5 and get back within 5 or so games of the division.

[beckmt]

Twins will have to do at least that well to compete for at least a wild card spot. Anything under .500 you call start the fire sale and bring up the kids for experience for next year.

[James]

Well, I'm flying out to Denver to check out that series against Colorado. I'm going to be there for the Friday and Saturday games. I'm hoping that the Twins will pull out at least two wins there.

 

I'll give you the 8 -6 record, with the Twins only taking 1 of 4 from Seattle.

[stringer bell]

I think at least nine wins are necessary to be viable after the break. I can't see it happening.

[kdrupp09]

As we all know, the Twins have been...well...inconsistent as of late. So I believe that the Twins absolutely need to turn things around before the all-star break to go in with some sort of momentum to compete the rest of the way.

 

The Twinkies have 14 games before the all-star game and none of them are real easy. 3 at home vs an on fire Royals team, 4 at home against the always hated Yankees, 4 at Seattle who is playing good ball and 3 at the Rockies.

 

I think the Twins need to at the very least go 7-7 over these two weeks, however anything less than 8-6 would be a bit of a disappointment.

 

Here is how I see things shaking out, what say you?

 

2 out of 3 vs the Royals.

3 out of 4 vs the Yankees (we played them well in NY, now let's dominate them in TF)

2 out of 4 vs the Mariners (vs Felix is a sure loss, hopefully the Twins can win two of the other 3)

1 out of 3 @ the Rockies- I think this staff could be a disaster at Coors Field vs the Rockies lineup.

 

Prediction: 8-6. Hopefully they go 9-5 and get back within 5 or so games of the division.

 

 

I think I agree with most of your predictions except for the NYY series, where I think 2 out of 4 is probably better because in a 4 game set we are likely to get Tanaka, so that is a loss just like Felix is for Seattle.

 

Prediction: 7-7

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Kansas City has owned us but the other games are winnable (except the Felix game -- yes he lines up against us). We can hang around .500 if someone above the age of 21 will ever step up and start to hit again.

[Dman]

I am feeling pessimistic. I am thinking 5-9. They take two games against NY and 1 game each for the rest of the series. Hoping for 6-8 with them taking two against the M's as well. As always I hope I am wrong. With some luck I could see them get to 8-6 tops. Right now something isn't right they seem to have lost their collective Mojo so I stand by my 5-9 prediction.

[Brandon]

10 - 4 gets us back to .500.

 

I am hoping to go 9-5 or at worst 8-6 July is going to be our easiest month schedule wise. After the allstar break it gets even easier. Cleveland, Kansas city, Tampa Bay. We should be able to end July 3-5 games over .500. (I am probably being optimistic. But if we are to contend this year for at least a wild card we will need to be near that as the schedule will probably get harder down the stretch).

[Mike Frasier Law]

I just love this crowd. If I asked a random sampling of my friends, they would probably predict between 1-5 wins in that stretch. I say 8-6. I think we take two from each of 'em!

[twinsfan34]

If they're 5-9 before the All-Star break...I'd expect we'd be 12 games or so out of 1st...and then the FO would likely be very open to trades. Especially since Morales & Willingham can leave the following year without us getting anything in return.

[Badsmerf]

No way they go better than 500. After this latest stretch.... you all are out of your minds. I say they go 5 and 9 and hopefully trade a bunch of pieces. The only room for optimism I'd plouffe coming back and unless he goes on ahr binge it won't make much of a difference. This is not a play off team. Better than last year, but still a below 500 team.

[TheLeviathan]

5-9 and I feel like I might be generous.

[jorgenswest]

They need to come up with a 51-31 finish to have a reasonable expectation of the playoffs.

 

To get there they will need to go 9-5 in the next 14 and follow it up with another 9-5 in the next 14 and follow that up with three more 9-5s. Mix five of those with a 6-6 in 12 games and they have a reasonable shot at the play in game.

 

The very best teams in the second half will perform at that level. Is it reasonable to expect the Twins will be among the very best teams in the second half?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I bet the the pitching will continue to impress, it's really a question of where the runs will come from.

If Plouffe's return can help the team score some runs, it's not out of the question that the next 14 games will help the team forget the last road trip.

The Twins should win at least 5 games, I'm optimistic for 7 or 8.

[tobi0040]

Is it reasonable to expect the Twins will be among the very best teams in the second half?

 

No.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree that if I was the GM, if they did not win 9 games in this stretch, I'be dealing away veterans for sure......I won't predict what will happen, but I'll just point out that I don't see them making the playoffs with this roster.

[DaveW]

I agree that if I was the GM, if they did not win 9 games in this stretch, I'be dealing away veterans for sure......I won't predict what will happen, but I'll just point out that I don't see them making the playoffs with this roster.

Flip side: if they do win 9 games (and continue to play well after the break) do you look at bringing in another low cost (trade piece wise) bat? Possibly a corner OF or CF bat would be great?

[Mike Sixel]

spirit.....not sure. If they get their guys back, and it doesn't seem "fluky" to me in winning 9, I'd add a bat, yes. But, I'd really need a good vibe. Right now, I'm not a believer, just winning those games would not be enough, I'd need to feel like it was real.

 

Priority positions:

CF

LF

RF

 

I think they are covered, for what they would be willing to do realisitcally, if you are willing to go Plouffe/Esco/Santana/Nunez as your 3B, SS, backup SS/CF/LF combo.

 

I could not name my targets right now, haven't given that any thought.

[DaveW]

They need to come up with a 51-31 finish to have a reasonable expectation of the playoffs.

 

To get there they will need to go 9-5 in the next 14 and follow it up with another 9-5 in the next 14 and follow that up with three more 9-5s. Mix five of those with a 6-6 in 12 games and they have a reasonable shot at the play in game.

 

The very best teams in the second half will perform at that level. Is it reasonable to expect the Twins will be among the very best teams in the second half?

Couple things: I think 51-33 puts them into the playoffs and probably wins them the division. If they go 49-35 they end up with 86 wins, which still maybe puts them in the playoffs. 47-37 puts them at 84 wins which means they were probably "in it" til the end. I think when you look at it like that: It certainly is possible for them to play ten games above .500 from here on out but they need a few things to happen:

 

1. Hughes/Gibson/Correia need to stay effective like they are now.

2. Nolasco needs to get it together ASAP, reasonable to think this could happen.

3. May needs to come up and at least pitch like an effective #4, I think its reasonable to expect this, of course he could bomb, or he could come on like gangbusters and pitch like a #2.

 

They also need a CF and/or Arcia to step up. If that doesn't happen you gotta look at bringing in another bat around the trade deadline if you are still "in it"

[DaveW]

spirit.....not sure. If they get their guys back, and it doesn't seem "fluky" to me in winning 9, I'd add a bat, yes. But, I'd really need a good vibe. Right now, I'm not a believer, just winning those games would not be enough, I'd need to feel like it was real.

 

Priority positions:

CF

LF

RF

 

I think they are covered, for what they would be willing to do realisitcally, if you are willing to go Plouffe/Esco/Santana/Nunez as your 3B, SS, backup SS/CF/LF combo.

 

I could not name my targets right now, haven't given that any thought.

 

I think Willingham (as bad as he is defensively at times) is just fine for one of those OF spots, especially since his bat is really really solid. Arcia...man...I wish he would just step up and be more consitent, if he could do that then suddenly all you are looking for is a CF and maybe a part time corner OF to give you better defense and Arcia a rest when he is struggling.

 

CF...I don't know who you target. However I would really really like to look to bring Ichiro in to handle the corner OF spot if Arcia can't hack it for now.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

CF...I don't know who you target. However I would really really like to look to bring Ichiro in to handle the corner OF spot if Arcia can't hack it for now.

 

The problem is a CF audition in the middle of July/August is a really bad idea for a team trying to make the playoffs. So you either target a hands down starter, or roll with Fuld full time, with the occasional sneaky good play like Parmelee yesterday or Santana, when match ups warrant.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Andre Ethier might be available if the Twins are buyers near the deadline.

He'd be a clear upgrade in RF, he's played a fair amount of CF as well this year.

Not sold on him defensively. Not sure what he would cost in terms of players going to the Dodgers.

[sorney]

Hope to be wrong, but 5-9 sounds like a reasonable record over that 14 given how we've played the last 6...

[SportsFriendsMN]

This is exactly what we wrote about today. This was the point in 2013 where the wheels came off. How long can they remain average this season? Anything past this weekend will be an improvement. http://www.sportsfriendsmn.com/2014/06/they-say-that-basketball-is-game-of.html

[DaveW]

This is exactly what we wrote about today. This was the point in 2013 where the wheels came off. How long can they remain average this season? Anything past this weekend will be an improvement. http://www.sportsfriendsmn.com/2014/06/they-say-that-basketball-is-game-of.html

I think last year was a true case of smoke and mirrors the first 80 or so games, there are some large differences this year IMHO and it starts with the rotation. The Twins had nobody close on the roster last year who put up numbers like Hughes and Gibson. Correia was their de-facto ace.

 

The rotation alone is going to keep them from having the "wheels fall off", the bats have been silent as of late, which will surely turn around. Now, does this guarantee they will win a bunch of games and make the playoffs? No, not at all, but I also would be more shocked if they lost 90 games.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I think I can, I think I can!

[jokin]

Andre Ethier might be available if the Twins are buyers near the deadline.

He'd be a clear upgrade in RF, he's played a fair amount of CF as well this year.

Not sold on him defensively. Not sure what he would cost in terms of players going to the Dodgers.

 

Since they took Drew off of our hands last year....Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer?

[Brandon]

I think the key to making a run is Santana comming back and playing solid CF and hitting close to .300. Joe Mauer hitting like yester year not earlier this year. If those 2 things happen and Arcia has both good and bad streaks we can live with that. Willingham is solid and Morales will improve as the season wears on. we just finished a stretch without a few offensive pieces and against better competition. we are facing weaker competition right now meaning if we are to be competitive we need a big July.

[Kwak]

Waiting the 14 games to see what happened makes a lot of sense. Best case scenarios (because lesser cases isn't worth discussing) is 9-10 wins. But then what? Anybody worthy of being classified as an impact player will be expensive (in prospects). If all of the top ten are "off-the-block", forget about anybody any good coming over. Adding a "low cost, veteran" has been tried many times and will be judged hashly. Add no one?--is even worse.

The "half-in, half-out" mentality makes no sense.

[Puckett34]

I'm going to say 9-5 or 8-6. But they could easily go 5-9 or 4-10. They're getting healthy. I think it all hinges on what pitching staff shows up. The one that pitched against the Blue Jays, Tigers, Red Sox and White Sox, or the one that pitched against the Angels and the first 2 games against the Rangers.

 

Gibson got it off to a good start yesterday, hopefully it will continue for the next 2 weeks.