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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. It very possible that 2022, his age 26 season, was an outlier career year. That's not unusual for MLB players, including Max Kepler and his 2019 season. Lew Ford had a similar season, though at age 27. He might figure it out. His xwOBA is more than 100 points higher than his actual, but even his xwOBA is still not good. I'd give him more runway, but he is not going to turn into a regret by the Twins is they let him find more playing time with another team.
  2. The bunting part was fun. The zone swing and cutter parts were fascinating. Great research and insights.
  3. I highly doubt the Yankees or D-Backs will be sellers. Pederson is redundant. Cron is a hard pass. A right-handed hitting corner outfielder is about the only position of interest (as of now) in the trade market for the non-pitching side.
  4. Maybe. I think it's more likely he replaces Castro on the roster. Castro's been better, but not so much that you dismiss Gordon's upside in his past. Plus, Castro has an option. Kirilloff replaces Kepler in the lineup. Even the Twins' media mouthpieces are saying this. I hope it is with the purpose of prepping the general fan of a coming move.
  5. Yes, but the Yankees always have hurt guys. They are probably the best team in the AL when everyone is healthy, but that will not likely be the case for 90% of the season/playoffs. That's the way it goes when you have mostly post-arb players on the roster.
  6. Agreed...cuz BASEBALL! And becuase BASEBALL! we lose Saturday. It just seems too appropriate.
  7. I agree on Kepler being hot and I like a manager who constantly shuffles the lineup to get the hot bats at the top (Cash of the Rays has done this for years), but Gallo is the hottest of them all and can't get above 5th in the lineup. Kepler, who with a roughly league average OPS is in midseason form, has become Rocco's Little Nicky Punto. He's a solid player who is put in a position to do more than he is actually capable of and it leaves him exposed while making the team worse. Outside of '19 & '20, he makes a perfect 4th OF. I've always thought of him as the Twins' version of Brett Gardner: a solid OFer you can feel comfortable giving 400or so PAs to as the 4th option, but generally sits when everyone is healthy and rested.
  8. Agreed. Gordon can spot SS if necessary. Even Solano or Miranda (who still has more professional innings at SS than 1B in his career). And there is no harm in sitting Kepler. Gallo, Larnach, and Kiriloff need to be getting the most PAs of those 5 LHB COFers. That's not to say those are the 3 best per se, as Larnach may be a MLB dud, but we need to find out. AAA does him no good at this point as his issue is hitting MLB caliber off-speed pitches.
  9. I'll take your word for it on last year. And that makes sense. Buxton and Taylor have played a higher percentage of the teams games this year vs last.
  10. @Matthew Trueblood, is there a leaderboard for this kind of split? If so, can you link to it? I'd be interested to see the names of other pitchers with this approach. It has to be unusual for such a gap.
  11. Buxton's, and to a lesser extent Taylor's, brilliant baserunning can barely buoy the anchor, that is the rest of the roster, from the bottom of the league.
  12. I agree with putting Buxton and Taylor in the OF together, but I would put Buxton in RF and have him become the primary RFer. Hear me out. There are many solid defensive RFers in MLB who primarily play RF instead of CF, not because they are not good enough to play CF, but because COF puts less stress on the body, which mitigates injury and rest days. Aaron Judge Mookie Betts Ronald Acuna Jr Daulton Varsho Lars Nootbaar Dylan Carlson Max Kepler Randal Grichuck George Springer Fernando Tatis (yes, I may be jumping the gun here) Ichiro stuck with RF for this reason and, while it was never stated, I would not be surprised if Henderson did the same. Buxton would likely be an upgrade on both offense and defense in RF. It would help mitigate physical stress vs CF while still giving us some of the value that we are currently missing in the field with him at DH. What do you think?
  13. It's early for trades, and that is precisely why the Cards are not expected to move O'Neil for a MLB SP until June, but the Twins line up with need right now. O'Neil would be the right handed OF bat the Twins need and he can play all OF positions. Maeda is the quintessential Cardinals SP. Fill in with spare ports around that as needed to balance the excess value of O'Neil. I doubt it happens, but the Twins and Cards do have a history of making a MLB level, need-for-need swap of players, not long ago.
  14. Lopez, Gray, and Ryan have been the story so far. If this is the real version of each of them for the season, the Twins are going to win a lot of games...and possibly even some playoff games🙈
  15. This is satire right? Considering Miranda played 2000+ innings of 3B in the minors, more than all other positions combined.
  16. This is really well written and insightful. It's an angle that makes since that I have never heard. Basically, he should take more strikes in the zone until he has 2 on him, and only swing at those first 2 strikes if they are in his groove zone, not just the strike zone. It's a tried and true method. Ted Williams talks about it in his hitting book. Until you have 2 strikes, you should only swing at strikes that you can handle, while letting strikes that are "pitcher's strikes" go by. I have to believe Max is doing this. Most pros do. Only players with insane bat to ball skills swing at anything on the zone. Your data, however, could mean he is not selective enough with less than two strikes.
  17. It did seem like they got a lot of clutch hits. I guess when you constantly have traffic on the bases it's easy to leave a lot of them stranded and simultaneously convert a lot of those opportunities.
  18. I hadn't considered this. I like it! I'm done with Kepler as leadoff. Sure, he hits the ball hard, but it's often straight down or up. I also like: Gallo (Always a good OBP and minimizes the downside of K's as they don't matter much when no one is on base) Correa (who is likely to lead the team in OBP) Buxton (speed and is likely to lead the team in OPS)
  19. "Sucks to suck" is such a great line😂 Right up there with "Like the things you like" and "Dopest dope you've ever smoked".
  20. @GKuehl Answered this well with a lot of detail. In baseball speak, Baldelli didn't want to dry hump Theilbar after warming him up due to the traffic jam Lopez created in the 5th.
  21. No. Maybe he is going to be rough. His limited MLB sample makes it nearly impossible to judge. That said, his 246.2 innings at 3B last year for the Twins were deemed league average by modern metrics. His 3289.2 innings at 3B in the minors, the position he played almost exclusively as a prospect with no rumors from evaluators that he might not be able to handle the position, seem to indicate he'll be fine. People need to stop conflating his ugly 1B defense with his solid 3B defense.
  22. Larnach seems the most likely breakout candidate if he can stay healthy. Maybe I have too high of expectations for Alcala, but I feel he needs to have an ERA that starts with a 2 to consider it a breakout year. He already set the bar so high with his 20+21 seasons.
  23. I would also expect Farmer to pinch hit for a LHB in the latter half of nearly every game he starts on the bench. The Twins have the players to move around defensively if he hits for a COF. Baldelli will have a real chance this season to play some chess with his bench. I hope he's good at it.
  24. DH: Austin Meadows - Tigers At 1B, I feel the discussion should be more between Pasquantino and Vaughan. Bell is a distant third behind those two. Also, I respectfully disagree on Polonco being the favorite at 2B if healthy. The projected 4.7 WAR from Giminez would be a career high for Polanco.
  25. I wonder if there has been any consideration to moving Buxton to RF. It is so much less stress on the body. Some MLB teams already employ a top-speed RF who would certainly be good-to-great in CF, such as Ronald Acuna Jr, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Dalton Varsho, Kyle Tucker, Adolis Garcia, and soon, Fernando Tatis Jr. Many of these RFers are played there with the explicit reason of keeping them healthy.
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