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Minny505

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  1. Minny505

    2nd half moves

    Minny505 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Escellent comment. To "yes, and" you... That's how projections work. They take the 50% outcome for everyone and mash them together. It so happens that the pitching is performing at its 90% outcome thus far and the hitting its 10% outcome. Together, they are exactly what projections systems said they would be. For the rest of the season, I expect both sides to regress to that 50% mark and they likely have a higher Win% due to their strength of schedule, but their BaseRuns Win% stays essentially the same.
  2. Minny505

    2nd half moves

    Minny505 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    That's an offseason issue, not an in-season issue. In 2023, they are who we thought they were (meaning their record). They do have a top 5 pitching staff in MLB. I hardly equate that to a Total System Failure. The 2023 Royals are a Total System Failure. The 2021 Nationals were as well. Same with the 2011 to 2016 Twins. I'm not willing to throw that term around loosely. I reserve that for when a team severely underperforms expectations and loses 100ish games. This team, and org, is far from that. That said, the FO made a decisions in the offseason regarding Gallo and Kepler that were very questionable at the time and have backfired is poorly as we all feared. (plus Pagan, though that one has been surprisingly fine) But not one analyst, local or national, had nothing but glowing prognostications for Buxton, Correa, and to a lesser extent Vazquez, in 2023, as long as they played. The failure is partially on Falvey for their poor roster management of the outfield in the offseason, but it is more on Buxton and Correa for having the worst season of their respective careers. No matter what Falvey did, nothing would be able to paper over their complete failure as players thus far. If they had played up to projections, or even close to them, the team would likey have 3-4 more wins right now. So let's call it what it is....a Total Buxton-Correa Failure.
  3. Minny505
    I know.
  4. Minny505
    There is no way I sell if I am this front office. This is probably the best team the Twins have constructed for a playoff run since 2006. Outside of just getting hot at the right time, elite pitching and hitting homeruns is how teams win in the playoffs. While this team struggles in most other areas on the whole, these are the two areas of production that they have succeeded, ranking 3rd in team ERA and 8th in HRs. Not selling does not mean holding onto Gallo and Kepler, or moving the latter to a strong-side platoon role in CF if they want to keep him.
  5. Minny505

    2nd half moves

    Minny505 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    .500 ball and basically on course to hit their preseason win projection is a "Total System Failure"? The shape of how the team got here is quite different than anyone expected, but here (meaning wins and losses) is exactly what was expected.
  6. Minny505
    Stolen bases is not a great proxy for speed. See Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt vs Mike Trout* and Edmundo Sosa. Admittedly there is a decent correlation between sprint speed and SBs, but it can also be misleading. Sprint Speed on Baseball Savant is much more helpful. Kepler has been trending down from the 80th percentile in 2019 to 52nd in 2023. *Trout is about to turn 32 and is still in the top 5 percentile of sprint speed in MLB. What a freak!!
  7. Minny505
    The suggestions are all realistic. Kepler has lost a lot of sprint speed since 2019 when he last played CF. He might be a train wreck there now, but it's worth finding out. To counter that speed decrease he is in the top 5% of route running for all OFers in MLB. As a strong-side platoon CF, he and Taylor might actually combine for average CF production. I think they are going to hold onto Gallo until the trade deadline, hoping he catches fire between now and then, to raise his value. At the 2022 deadline, a much worse season than 2023, he still netted the 15ish prospect from the Dodgers.
  8. Minny505
    ERA
  9. Minny505
    I admit, I was on the fence about this trade, leaning toward a good one for the Twins. Now though, I love it. Lopez has been so much better than expected. I thought the Twins were getting a #3, but they might have gotten an ace...a true ACE.
  10. Minny505
    He never regained his form. He had one more season where he was a league average 1B hitter. Considering he was the best hitter in MLB when he got that concussion, I'd say it derailed his career.
  11. Minny505
    Would you say that derailed his career?
  12. Minny505
    The shocking part of the Twins history is that the hitters have had their careers derailed by injury at the rate generally reserved for pitchers. I think Cuddyer might be the last BA Top 50 hitting prospect that stayed relatively injury free. That ranking was in 1999 😲
  13. Minny505
    And then a titanium rod installed in his leg.
  14. Minny505
    Cano and Bautista stand out as the best RPs in the AL this season. They are the most deserving. After that, by the numbers, Duran gets lost in a sea of excellent RPs. Far from a snub.
  15. Minny505
    This is precisely what the Rays do. The Twins actually draft and develop more pitchers than the Rays...by a wide rate. Take a look at their roster resource page. Only 4 of their 22 pitchers on thethe Rays 40 man/IL were drafted or signed as international prospects. The Twins drafted 8 of their 25 pitchers on their 40 man/IL.
  16. Minny505
    I guess I don't really care if they do it the Guardians way of draft and development or the Rays way of trade and development. Both can yield great results if executed properly. The Twins way looks a lot more like the Rays approach to a pitching pipeline...and, for one season at least, they are out-Rays-ing the Rays with the trade-and-development approach to pitching.
  17. Minny505
    If someone hits the waiver wire that is intriguing to them, Pagan is worth cutting. Gotta have that opportunity present itself first, a la Brock Stewart.
  18. Minny505
    Take a look at AAA. What prospects is he blocking? Enlow? Henriquez? Both have been brutal. Not a Pagan defender here. I would have never signed him. But right now, the Twins are better with him than some slappy.
  19. Minny505
    The issue is: Who do they move onto? They already have Winder, Balazovic, Headrick, and Ortega, in the bullpen. Is there even anyone left on the 40 that they can call up to fill his spot? He's the best out of a lot of bad options right now. Until the more reliable RPs get off the IL, it's best to hold onto him.
  20. Minny505
    Lopez has the 7th highest fWAR in the AL. He's closer to an allstar than a 5th starter. I don't believe any of the Twins pitchers are as good as their numbers. Playing in the central means they pitch against arguably 4 of the 6 worst offenses in the AL. That's going to make any pitcher look better than they are. So the next step is to look at park and oppenent adjusted numbers, which are the +/- stats. When adjusting for quality of oppoentent, Lopez has been (marginally) better than Joe Ryan and the 5th best SP in the AL. All 3 of those Twins SPs are in the top 10 SPs in the AL. The Twins finally built a team to win in the playoffs, with 3 of the best pitchers in the AL. Their SP will be the equal of, or better than, the SP they face in every matchup if their performance to date holds thru October. Now they just have to get there.
  21. Minny505
    This 👆 A good week has the Twins outfield back at average statistically. Defensive numbers are understood to have a lot of noise. The infield is a visual nightmare and the numbers back that up. And Polanco is not fixing this with his return. He is part of the problem. His defense at 2B is vastly overrated by the Twins faithful.
  22. Minny505
    I loved the Donaldson signing, and now that Donaldson trade looks even better today. His performance has plummeted to the point there is a fair chance he gets DFA'd before the end of the season. IKF is fine, but I'm happier with Castro/Farmer filling essentially the same role. All these trades mentioned are great. Honorable Mentions: Sisk and Cruz for Taylor Legumina for Farmer Garver for Henriquez and IKF Happ for Gant and Sisk (who they parlayed into Taylor) Grateral and Raley for Maeda and Camargo Diaz for Romo and Vallimont Dozier for Fosythe, Raley and Smeltzer Chalmers for Rodney Outside of the Mahle and Wade trades, the Twins have done well on the trade market, and even the Wade trade isn't terrible. It's just run-of-the-mill bad. The other big deals are pushes or insufficient time to judge: Lopez, Lopez/Salas, Austin/SWR. If only Falvey's FA signings and player retention decisions looked as good they likely would'nt be treading 500.
  23. Minny505
    The Twins did NOT give up anything of value at the time. Povich is largely viewed as a future fungible RP by most prospect evaluators. I have never heard a propect evaluator mention Rojas or Nunez, so I assume they are minor league depth. Cano was given plenty of chances and was terrible. Actually, terrible doesn't properly quantify his value. He was a detriment to the team and a reason for them losing so many games. If 6 months ago a team had the choice of Jorge Lopez or Yannier Cano as the 8th man in the bullpen, 30 out of 30 MLB GM's opt for Lopez. (Even the Orioles, who required more than 6 years of Cano to part with 2.5 years of Lopez)
  24. Minny505
    I would say Ryan and Gray are the players most deserving of being Allstars from the Twins with Duran as a distant 3rd. Elite SPs are far more valuable than elite RPs. As such, only 2-3 RPs typically get an Allstar nod. Look at the leaderboard for RPs, sorted however you want, and Duran doesn't stand out in any way. The two obvious guys are both in Oriole orange. Duran's production does not make him more deserving than other RP options. but I would give him the nod as the 3rd RP on the team if I were MLB, because he is a freak show and the baseball world will be gushing about his raw talent when they see him throw.
  25. Minny505
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