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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    The thing about the Guardians in 2022 is they were one of the healthiest teams in MLB. They had so few days missed to the IL. Is that luck or is it repeatable? Most likely luck. The Twins were the most injured team in the league by some measurements. The White Sox weren't far behind. Both were in the top 3 by pretty much all measurements. Reversion to the mean for all three teams likely results in a Twins divisional win, but also bunches them all more closely together in the low to mid 80s for wins, meaning that luck card is likely to be the difference maker.
  2. Minny505
    I would estimate the average of record predictions on TD is around 85. That seems like a realistic expectation. As stated in the OP, Pythag had them as an 82 win team last year. BsR had them as an 83 win team (IIRC). 85 is a 3 win improvement. That seems cautiously optimistic, but deservedly so. I've learned from observing Unanimuous AI (the prediction company) predictions that crowdsourced sports predictions are far more accurate than "experts" and even most algorithmic AI prediction systems to date. So I'm taking the over as well with an expectation of 85 wins. Cautiously optimistic.
  3. Minny505
    The most accurate way to project every bullpen in baseball is to assume they will all be average, with a few BIPs for the one's anchored by a reliable stud. That's some paraphrasing of the great Tom Tango (IIRC). The Twins are one of 8-10 teams that have that reliable stud anchoring it, making the top 10 projection understandable.
  4. Minny505
    Yeah. Odd omission to not even mention Gordon as an option at 2B considering, especially considering he has only played middle infield this spring with the last few games playing 2B. The proverbial writing is on the wall.
  5. Minny505
    I tend to agree that Gordon will get at least 50% of the starts at 2B while Polanco is out.
  6. Minny505
    It's unusual, but would the Twins option Julien back to the MLB camp? With Polanco and Kiriloff both looking doubtful for the opening day roster, Julien is looking like the most option to fill the vacated positions of 1B, 2B, & DH.
  7. Minny505
    Yes!!! I'll take it!
  8. Minny505
    Your idea here makes sense, but it seems your overthinking it a bit. Polanco probably plays while Solano stays at 1B and Miranda at 3B, with Farmer playing LF. When Polandco is out vs LHP, Farmer just comes in to play 2B instead. Less movement and likely maximizes defense.
  9. Minny505
    He's definitely one of the 8 best relief pitchers on the roster right now. The only reason he wouldn't make it is due to 40 man status. That's a tough hurdle to jump unless another 60 day IL pops up or they finally DFA Pagan or Magill.
  10. Minny505
    I'm more confident in Miranda playing a decent 3B than I am in Polanco playing a decent 2B. I am a bit confounded by the 3B position focusing so heavily on Miranda's "questionable" defense, while the 2B position didn't mention Polanco's ugly defense once🤔
  11. Minny505
    In the original entry: "His defense at third was already questionable". I honestly don't understand this sentiment. There was not a lot of concern about him playing 3B when he was a prospect and his play there as rookie leads me to believe he'll be an average-to-slightly-below-average defensive 3B. Yes, he was atrocious at 1B, but he was a 0 across the board for DRA, OAA, & RAA at 3B.
  12. Minny505
    Meh. Go look thru the MLBTR page for any team. Most of them read similarly to the Twins. It's par for the course in MLB spring training. I think we are just oversensitive to it because of leading the league in 2022 in projected WAR lost to injury.
  13. Minny505
    There was a book called The Arm written by Jeff Passan that came out in 2016. It is entirely on this very topic. It's a little old, and even outdated. My memory is a little hazy on the specifics, but i remember being shocked by the high rate of success that rest had on avoiding surgery. I believe rest worked in something like 72% of cases. Hopefully someone with the book can comment here and correct or verify that info.
  14. Minny505
    I hope you are right. On both accounts. It would be awesome if Solano can play some COF. As for Gordon, it is very possible 2022 was his career year. After 2019, we all thought that Kepler was in ascension mode, but he only maintained that production for one more season, before falling back to his career baseline. 2019 was Kepler's same age season as 2022 was for Gordon, the age 26 season. Ages 26 and 27 are when the majority of MLBers put up the best seasons of their careers. Trading Gordon in the offseason may have been selling high. I hope that's not the case.
  15. Minny505
    👆 That is actually what I was expecting to read when I opened the entry. The answer to the lineup is rather easy. Yankees with Judge > Twins with Buxton > Yankees without Judge = Twins without Buxton
  16. Minny505
    I don't think that's just this year. The Astros took that bench from the Yanks years ago and have run away with it. That said, the Blue Jays are catching up fast to take it from the 'Stros. According to Fangraphs offensive run values, take Judge off the team and the Doodles essentially become league average.
  17. Minny505
    This has got to be an early leader in the TwinsDaily clubhouse for best entry of the year. Absolutely incredible analysis that came out of nowhere. I have heard a lot of analysis on the impact of the new shift limitations on individual players, but I never considered a RHB, especially one with speed, seeing an uptick in hits. I wonder if the studies we all have heard/read are also only using LHB in their data sets.
  18. Minny505
    On a national level, pitchers tend to fall off due to injury far more often than hitters do. This means that a potential average 3B is ranked higher than a potential average #3 SP. However, as Twins writers are more in the weeds on just the Twins system, which has kind of experienced the opposite of this with hitting prospect after hitting prospect fall due to injury (Kubel, Buxton, Sano, Kirilloff, Lewis...which are just some top 100 guys), while other than Liriano, no pitching prospect has really fallen in the same way. On the national level, talent evaluators love to say "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect." Here in Twins Territory, we experience it more like "There's no such thing as a hitting prospect."
  19. Minny505
    Being that Ober is the 6th SP right now, I'd prefer they keep him stretched out as he'll likely be needed in the Twins's rotation before the calendar flips to May...possibly before it flips to April. But I completely agree on Winder. I would peg him as no higher than 8th on the SP depth chart. Due to the youth behind him, he could easily end the season 10th or so. It's time to transition him to the BP and see what he can do in short bursts.
  20. Minny505
    Is the point of this piece that Mauer will not be inducted on the first ballot? That's probably correct. But he's pretty much a shoe-in. I don't think there is any concern about Mauer being a part of the induction ceremony in the next five years.
  21. Minny505
    I agree
  22. Minny505
    I guess I don't understand the exercise then🤷‍♂️
  23. Minny505
    MJ Melendez needs a spot on this team. The dude is a masher. I'll take him at DH over Perez. I'd consider him a push in RF or C, despite the rough . Yet, he isn't mentioned anywhere. And Vaughan is a better choice at 1B. Naylor is worse than Kepler vs LHP. That's an impressive feat.
  24. Minny505
    Engaging in a little "scouting the stat line", his peripherals didn't really change from pre-2021 to 2022...except one. His GB% went up about 10 percentage points, a 30-ish% increase. That's impressive! It led to both a lower BABIP and HR rate. Was it luck? If he can maintain stay close to a K/IP and a BABIP around 44%, he should be able to carve out a decent MLB career as a SP.
  25. Minny505
    It's a little telling how much Twins fans overvalue their own prospects, the ones they are familiar with, over the prospects that are new to the system, when none of the guys ranked 4-7 on this list are likely getting any Top 100 prospect consideration anywhere, while at number 8 we have a guy who is on 2 or 3 of those lists. Salas should probably be ranked at 4, right behind Rodriguez. I'd accept an argument that Julien and SWR should be above him due to proximity to The Show, putting him at 6th. But that's why these are fun...even if they are objectively incorrect 😜
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