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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    I love this order and it's a lot closer to how I would have it vs the staff. Proximity is more valuable to me. Most of the guys at AAA, and even AA, on this list were once A ballers with higher upside than they are currently viewed as having, but they have survived to make it this far and are still succeeding. That's more than most Single-A top prospects will ever accomplish...especially pitchers.
  2. Minny505
    Right now the Twins are certainly on the positive side of the WAR ledger when it comes to trading for pitchers over the last 7+ years. If the Twins are going to trade for pitchers, might as well be for pitchers with an injury history. Why? Because they often have their value depressed due to that history, but really, 98% of pitchers carry equal injury risk from this minute forward. For every Mahle there is a Gray. For every Paddack there is a Maeda. For every Alcala, there is a Duran. And occasionally you snag a Ryan or a SWR along the way as well.
  3. Minny505
    6.5 weeks into the season and the pre-season observation is playing out as true that this year's Twins looks like they stole the Dodgers playbook and are executing it mid-market team style. They stockpiled depth all thru the 40 man roster, and even beyond, to weather the regular season storm of attrition that is inescapable by all but the 2022 Guardians.
  4. Minny505
    Griffith is getting BABIP'd to death without the hard contact to support concern. Stewart OTOH brings a world of concern with him to the mound each time he makes that long walk. A 9:8 K:BB ratio is traversing a tightrope without a safety net.
  5. Minny505
    I had no idea of the numbers on Jax this week, but just watching the games it seemed like he was in a stretch of crazy-bad luck. Bloopers and bleeders everywhere. I'm sure a hard-hit ball happened, but I don't recall any. Not at all worried about him. That FIP and xERA are still fantastic.
  6. Minny505
    Love seeing Gallo at leadoff. I hope he hangs on and we never have to witness another weak Kepler pop fly to start our offense.
  7. Minny505
    I don't think I have ever seen a waiver wire, journeyman pitcher, move up the bullpen leverage ladder as fast as Brock Stewart has. It's kind of bizzarre.
  8. Minny505
    Buxton, like many other speedy RHB, consistently outperform their xwOBA. The quants behand those numbers have had a hard time adjusting for those choppers to the left-side that players like Buxton, Taylor, Trey Turner, Nico Hoerner, etc, consistently beat out for hits. So Buxton will likely always be one of the "luckiest" hitters on the Twins due to that inherent talent. Taylor is #3 on this list IIRC.
  9. Minny505
    A good rule of thumb is, "Is this the kind of trade the Rays would do?" Encarnacion-Strand is a decent prospect, but he can only play 1B so unless he is an elite hitter, it's not a big loss. He's not even ranked in the Reds top 10 prospects. Steer is a decent hitter who can't really play defense and has already been relegated to 1B for the Reds. He's 25. His upside is meh. Hajjar is a too-old-for-his-level lottery ticket pitcher that the Reds already traded away as the PTBNL for a depth outfielder they traded for at the 2022 deadline. I'd want the Twins to pull the trigger on that trade 11 out of 10 times. That's how you become the Rays.
  10. Minny505
    I'd offer him a 2 year deal with a team option. He's likely out for most or all of next season, so 2025 is really what the contract is for, with an option if he picks up where he left off in Cinncinnati.
  11. Minny505
    Love chatting baseball with people who use BS! It's my #1 resource these days for players. And yes, he has been unlucky, but that's just compounding the fact that he's also been bad.
  12. Minny505
    He should get moved to 5th or 6th until he gets his bat going again. Kind of feels like the Gardy days right now with him batting second.
  13. Minny505
    Garlick probably makes more sense as long as Buxton is the full-time DH. If thet Twins brass decides that's not the move, then he is likely safe until the team calls up Miranda or Lewis...provided everyone is still healthy and producing.
  14. Minny505
    First, I love the charts you made @SportsGuyDalton! Amazing way to visually demonstrate those numbers. I would also include xwOBA in this discussion. Gordon has the largest negative differential in the AL there (min 50bip). Shifting gears, I love where Taylor and Buxton are on this chart. xBA has yet to be properly calibrated for fast right-handed batters, who generally get more infield hits than the batted ball data suggests for right-handed batters as a group.
  15. Minny505
    Agreed on Gallo. He looks like the allstar form of himself so far, but may regress back to career norms. Even that is a win in FA and an upgrade over any other corner outfield option. The underlying numbers, even since his injury 0h-fors are common for hitters like him. When you are not putting a lot of balls in play you are reducing your chances for random bloops, bleeders, misplays, etc, to land in to break up the hitless streak. But those walks mean he is still contributing offensively. His Statcast box is beautiful, especially that xwOBA. He is a player that has underperformed his xwOBA in his career by 12 bips, but that K% might level him out.
  16. Minny505
    While many in the lineup have been ugly for most of the season, the slump "Gallo" is in is still encouraging. He seems more like a BABIP victim right now than a poor plate appearance offender. Correa looks terrible, but his career 135ish wRC+ has me not worried in the long run. I would drop him in the lineup though until he gets it going a bit. Some good-to-great players just go thru this: Jeter, Ramirez, Soto, Arenado, etc. Miranda, Larnach, Vasquez, and Solano are much more concerning for the rest-of-the-season.
  17. Minny505
    A trade at this point seems very unlikely. However, the Mets, Braves, & Marlins could all really use a corner outfielder. I would not be surprised if a trade goes down with one of those teams at some point, particularly the Mets, who are said to have a deep farm system right now.
  18. Minny505
    I'd avoid scouting the stat line for a young pitcher like SWR who is still working on improvement, not trying to prove he is ready for the show with his production. His stuff, command, and makeup are much more important. His stuff is literally top notch. His command is solid. His velo may set his ceiling at a modern day Marcus Stroman, Shane Bieber, or Merrill Kelly equivalent, but that is still plenty valuable.
  19. Minny505
    I think the rotation is the answer. Rotate Kepler, Larnach, Taylor, Gallo, Kirilloff, and to a lesser extent, Buxton. This gives Kirilloff a couple days off a week and everyone else one day off a week, with maybe Taylor sucking up two days on the pine a week. Kepler sits against all the LHP. Without an injury to one of those guys, that rotation seems like the best way forward.
  20. Minny505
    What an unusual Twins team! ...and in a good way. Looking at Fangraphs team metrics, they are basically an average offensive team with average team defense and an ELITE pitching staff. ELITE. This is like a really good psilocybin trip. I'm completely disoriented from my real world grounding of the being a bottom 5 pitching staff thru most of the 2010s ...and I'm loving it!
  21. Minny505
    It very possible that 2022, his age 26 season, was an outlier career year. That's not unusual for MLB players, including Max Kepler and his 2019 season. Lew Ford had a similar season, though at age 27. He might figure it out. His xwOBA is more than 100 points higher than his actual, but even his xwOBA is still not good. I'd give him more runway, but he is not going to turn into a regret by the Twins is they let him find more playing time with another team.
  22. Minny505
    The bunting part was fun. The zone swing and cutter parts were fascinating. Great research and insights.
  23. Minny505
    I highly doubt the Yankees or D-Backs will be sellers. Pederson is redundant. Cron is a hard pass. A right-handed hitting corner outfielder is about the only position of interest (as of now) in the trade market for the non-pitching side.
  24. Minny505
    Maybe. I think it's more likely he replaces Castro on the roster. Castro's been better, but not so much that you dismiss Gordon's upside in his past. Plus, Castro has an option. Kirilloff replaces Kepler in the lineup. Even the Twins' media mouthpieces are saying this. I hope it is with the purpose of prepping the general fan of a coming move.
  25. Minny505
    Yes, but the Yankees always have hurt guys. They are probably the best team in the AL when everyone is healthy, but that will not likely be the case for 90% of the season/playoffs. That's the way it goes when you have mostly post-arb players on the roster.
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