Minny505

Fangraphs published an article on Arraez today and it's awesome. I suggest checking it out. Lot's of pretty infographics. They pointed out that of all players in MLB with 200 PAs, Arraez is 5th(!!!) in OBP. Wow! I did not realize he was in that kind of territory. And he is still sporting more BB than K. Can we start leading him off please? PLEASE!!??

Pineda is eligible to return to the rotation on Tuesday the 13th. If he's feeling ready to be a bada$$, I believe he will replace Perez in the rotation then. This gives Smeltzer a chance to prove he can be at least as effective as Perez, which I believe we can be. Smeltzer will probably never be anything more than a 4th pitcher, but I'll take that over Perez, who has not shown any consistency as a starting pitcher to deserve a regular rotation spot since 2015. Perez is the guy we all thought he would be instead of the guy Falvine thought they could make him into. I mean, the first seven turns thru the rotation showed that the front office seemed correct in knowing how to fix him, but Perez just doesn't have the command to consistently be that guy. I'm not going to fault the front office per say when they create a plan that clearly would work and the player not able to execute upon that plan. We all thought after the first couple months of the season that the FO was right. Now though, it's time to treat it as the sunk cost it is and try other pitchers or methodologies in hopes of not burying this team in a hole during the first half of the game.

If anything, I would think this whole experience would have the opposite effect. By toughing it out, Dyson let down his new teammates in a BIG way, likely generating some resentment in the clubhouse. It should. I hope his teammates give him **** about it. The best way to get rid of such a misguided attitude is to shame those who engage in it...in a fun, playful, teammates breaking each others balls, sort of way.

I'm so confused by this early paragraph and it distracted me the whole way thru the article: "Organizations can decide if that’s done through a cash transaction on the free agent market, or if it makes more sense to utilize a farm system and explore a swap including prospect capital. The Twins have now been presented with opportunities to go down both paths in the past calendar year and have taken neither thus far" I feel like Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzales, Jonathan Schoop, CJ Cron, Martin Perez and Blake Parker were literally added to the roster "through a cash transaction on the free agent market...in the past calendar year." (You can pick nits on Cron, but it's close enough) Am I misunderstanding your statement Ted?

I'd still rather have Schoop on the roster than Cave, which is really what this discussion is about should the Twins want/need to add a 13th pitcher before September 1st. Adrianza can fill in OF spots when needed, playing a similar level of defense as Cave (I haven't dug into Statcast regarding this statement, so correct me if I'm wrong). Schoop is an outlier in that he has rather pronounced reverse splits for his career. I'm not sure what to make of that other than he's basically performs like a LHB, making him a poor platoon candidate with Arraez.

When Trevor May came in to the game he looked like a completely different pitcher from the start. I was watching with my son and told him as much after the 2nd pitch. First, he was hucking the ball at a new velo for himself. On top of that, he was hitting his spots. He had one terrible call go against him in the first AB, but that didn't derail him from his plan. He looked like a new man. Then he pulled the string with a dirty change up on the corner. I was beside myself with excitement watching this pitcher on the mound whose face and jersey I know well, but whose demeanor, stuff and command I didn't recognize. Then he set the beat on repeat in the 9th. I'm not going to make too much of one outing for a reliever, but if this is the new version of Trevor May after he went MIA for nearly two weeks to get some time in the lab, then the Twins just created a monster of a weapon. Here's hoping

Hey gents, I just listened to the latest episode, which was my first of yours. I loved the format of going thru, player by player, and hitting the talking points on them. That's a really unique methodology in the podcast world. It's like a series of snack sized discussions and super fun. You have an opportunity here to really create a whole new style of pod. It's impressive. I am not an expert on the tech side of podcasting, but I do have a suggestion. The audio is really muddy, especially Cooper. I am not sure how, or if you can, fix that... short of getting better hardware. I just want to throw it out there though. Crisper audio quality would go a long way if there is something you can do to make it happen. Regardless, you have a big fan here. Again, I'm so impressed by the format and surprised the Locked On sports pods or some other series has not experimented with that style yet. You could be on to something big that could be turned into a whole franchise concept for every team out there to get on board. On a related note: I noticed that Cleveland has a Leading Off podcast series out there. Are you in the same ecosystem or is it just coincidence? Looks forward to many, many more episodes fellas. Keep up the killer work.

Stoked about the audio format. I am subscribed and excited to start listening!!!

Do you boys have a RSS feed?

I was watching the game on mute with the fam and after watching the replay I commented that they might give Cron an error on the throw. Nothing about that was Garver's fault. Even on the replay, the runner is safe if Garver had caught that cleanly. There is nothing he could have done with that throw to make an out. That play is on Cron, not on Garver. To read here that they charged Garver with an error is really surprising.

I love the take Tom. I do feel like you contradict yourself a bit though in first commenting about how bullpen innings are evenly distributed, then a few paragraphs later, comment that the bullpen usage has been standard. I don't watch any other teams on the daily like the Twins. Watching a team is kind of the only way to know how the bullpen is being used, unless there is some metric Fangraphs or BP has created. Spreading around the innings is quite different from the last couple managers the Twins have had. I don't know if that makes Baldelli the outlier or Gardenhire*/Molitor. I'm really digging it though. I think it makes a huge impact on freshness of all the arms out there and almost pretty much all the guys who have thrown 10+ innings are having the best season of their career so far, sans Hildenberger. *Gardenhire was a guest this week on Starting 9, the second best non-team specific podcast out there right now IMHO. I highly suggest checking it out if you haven't yet. He's such an amazing interview.

According to The Book on optimizing lineup construction, it is ideal to bat your fastest player at 6 in the lineup. This gives that player the most opportunities to utilize their speed in a way that maximizes run scoring. Taking extra bases, whether stealing or on a ball in play, has more value with guys at the plate with a lower OPS than guys with a higher OPS. This makes intuitive sense as you don't want guys making outs on the bases when you have run producers coming up. That risk carries a higher reward with lower OPS batters, particularly high average/low OPS batters. Staying out of the double play and putting yourself into a position to score on singles has a ton of value when the lower third of your lineup is coming to the plate. So, in my perfect world, that's where he'd bat in the order, the 6 hole. In that world of mine, Astudillo bats 7th and then the worst batter in the day's lineup (Adrianza, Gonzo, Cave or Cron right now) bats 9th. The 5 spot would be advantageous as well. I would not bat him higher than that though. Not unless he can get on base at a high rate than .340.

The test of a SP these days is essentially, can you reliably (>50% of the time) make it thru the first four batters of a team's lineup three times. If so, start your own games. If not, you need an opener with the hope you can give the team five innings instead of just four. Berrios and Pineda seem fine (Pineda's pitch count can sometimes get worrisome, but seems solid for 90+ pitches each outing). Gibson I'm fine with in the long run, even if he is closer to a 4.20ERA pitcher going forward. Odorizzi has routinely been the type of SP that cannot get the 19th batter out with any consistency...and it typically goes downhill fast. Even when he's cruising, he crumbles. He's an enigma who looks like a bonafide ace for the first 18 batters. He is the poster-boy for using an opener to squeeze an extra inning out of each day he pitches. Pairing an opener with Odorizzi could potentially save the bullpen from 30 innings of work over the course of a season. That's huge. We'll see how Perez performs as a SP here, but the bullpen numbers are not encouraging. While he may need an opener as well, he is not comparable to Odorizzi in why he needs an opener. Perez seems more like a 4.80 ERA guy that needs an opener due to futility.

College basketball is fantastic, but the NBA is boring. That said, there is no denying that it is really the only one of the Big 4 pro sports leagues in North America that is growing. But I don't think it's so much the fast paced action of the NBA that MLB needs to replicate, it's the personality the players get to show while the game is in action. That sort of personality is against the unwritten rules of baseball and will too often result in being assaulted with a deadly weapon, either for you or someone on your team. Either that sort of small d*** retaliation has to stop or young fans who care just as much about the showmanship of players as the actual play itself will never get into baseball.

Cron has looked really good at 1B. Really good. The difference between him and the other two guys to play there in 2019 has been stark. He looks like a GG contender so far this young season (in the innings I've watched). The interesting thing thing about Astudillo behind the plate is that the kind of quantifiable and evaluative performance that fans can see, framing, blocking pitches in the dirt and controlling the run game, he has been essentially equal to, if not arguably best, of the three catchers on the roster in his limited time. His minor league numbers at catcher speak to the same level of proficiency. Game calling is unquantifiable by us rubes but is he really that much worse that Garver and/or Castro? He's a superior hitter to most of the players on the roster and the undisputed best hitter among our catching corp. I do love that Astudillo plays for my favorite team. He's been a BP/Fangraphs darling for a few years now and I had been following him since first hearing about the oddity of his offensive profile. I'd be cheering for the guy even if he wore the laundry of the Yankees or White Sox, but it's the Twins that happen to be the team with the second most interesting player in MLB. That's amazing.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe both ZIPS and Pecota project Astudillo as one of the top three hitters on the Twins roster. Between his performance in AAA/MLB last year, his MVP runner-up season in Venezuela (where reports had him playing primarily LF) and his showing over the last month or so, I don't see any reason those systems are incorrect. He should be a fixture in the lineup in the 2-4 spots with a TBD position every day, kind of like an in-his-prime Ben Zobrist. Winning teams (other than the 2019 version of the Cardinals) do not have one of their three best hitters regularly absent from the starting lineup. For example, it did not take long for Aaron Hicks to become a regular in the lineup in NY once he become a monster at the plate. Use Astudillo at C, 3B, 1B, LF, RF and DH (for the ~6.5 games Cruz needs a breather) and fix him in the lineup somewhere 2-4. Even if he regresses to a .300/.325/.475 hitter over the next few seasons, that's basically CJ Cron and Eddie Rosario, hovering around a 115 wRC+. It's a long fall to whoever you see as the fifth best hitter after those top four. His defense basically needs to be Ryan Doumit for him to not be the best catcher option on this team, and yet the untrained eye might think him the best due to his mobility and arm. That said, if it's possible to carry three catchers, I'd only have him start 30 or so games behind the dish so he can be in the lineup almost daily.

There really are few 3B prospects in the lower levels of the minors in all of MiLB. Most MLB three baggers are former SS in AA and often even AAA that don't have the range to play the 6 at the game's top level. So you might say that we have a plethora of 3B prospects between Javier, Lewis and Gordon, plus Polanco already inked for the long term. Any one of them would probably make stud defensive 3B and if they develop as expected, would produce enough on offense to not be a hole.

I have to agree with Dman here. Prior to this move I thought there was really no chance Astudillo makes the roster if everyone is healthy on Opening Day. I'd say this raises his odds significantly. There is no need to carry Cave or Adrianza with Gonzalez on the 25 man. He can reliably play every position on the diamond except CF, which Kepler can do. That gives you the opportunity to start take Astudillo or Austin north with the squad. You'd still have Cave and Adrianza (if we elects to stay with the Twins) or Torreyes if you need to call someone up for a DL stint. And this is more hypothesis than fact, but I wonder if Astudillo, because of his eye hand coordination, has a naturally high floor for fielding grounders and thrown balls (fly balls don't really require the same skill). Anyone ever seen a study on contact rate and fielding pct? (His range is still an issue of course)

I know what St Peter said about payroll and how Levine and Falvey have spoken about payroll, but I still can't shake the feeling that Levine and Falvey are basically falling on the sword for the Pohlads regarding fans and the media. I bet they would love to just blurt out, "Listen, the Pohlads capped us. We are not being allowed to make the upgrades you are begging for." But that's career suicide. Those two seems wise enough to know that there were three and now two guys on the FA market that would be a definitive upgrade for this team both short and long term. As pointed out in the ZIPS projections, that's a tough feat on a team that is composed of average players up and down the roster. With the way the Keuchel market is being portrayed in MLBTR reports, getting him for 3/$60 may be feasible. His peripherals all trended up in 2018 from 16-17. While I'm not a Keuchel guy and argued against signing him early on when the discussion was 5/$100, 3/$60 is fine. Is that possible? If the contract he signs is around that number and it's not with the Twins, I will absolutely pin this on the Pohlads and not our personnel decision makers. As was conversed about on the Effectively Wild podcast this morning, every GM wants more money to spend on payroll and it's very rare for a GM not to spend up to what ownership approves.

I've always had what I think is a fun idea for the DH. Rather than have one DH for the game, have the DH spot be a unique pinch hitter role. What I mean is that the DH spot in the lineup is really a pinch hitter spot in the lineup that can be filled by any player who is eligible to enter the game. When batting as the DH with this rule their eligibility to DH is used. That player can still enter the game at any point as any non-starter under the current rules, meaning they could potentially pinch hit twice. This means that pretty much every bench player takes at least one at bat each game. Double switches are still a thing so if you want to have your glove first OF hit in the 7th inning with two outs and nobody on, you can then move the DH spot to the six spot in the lineup from the ninth spot, replacing the Jay Bruce's of the lineup. The few good hitting pitchers in the league can still take an AB on their off day if the manager would like to save their best bats for lead off or RBI situations. Once in extra innings, DH eligibility is reset for any players still eligible to enter the game never expires. This protects from being forced to have pitchers ever bat. It's probably a terrible idea in practice, but seems like a nice blend of current DH rules and the "strategy" of having pitchers bat, which is really more a of a strategy of how to use pinch hitters effectively when you strip away the facade of pitchers actually hitting.

I find it ironic that Levine would make a comment about spending big on Machado or Harper as the kind of move they will make when they are projected to win the division. Then a report comes out that the team is the front runner for the most expensive closer on the market. That is the ultimate front runner move by a team that is PROJECTING a strong playoff run, not a team that is aiming for 85 wins and POSSIBLY contending for a wild card spot. That makes me very suspect of the report about our favorite squad and Kimbrel. It's completely contradictory to the front runner statement.

I think the easiest way to explain the concept and upside of the opener is that it allows the "starter" to effectively face 22-23 batters instead of just 18. So instead of getting 5 effective innings from your "starter", you can get 6 effective innings from your "starter".

MSP is one of the few non-west coast airports to have daily direct flights to and from Tokyo. That should eliminate that hurdle. Now to convince him that the weather really isn't THAT rough April, May September and October...

I would definitely take Adrianza over Walker. And I was looking at Eduardo Nunez as the BMI for the Red Sox. And in that case, I would rather have Adrianza. Of Nunez, Holt and Kinsler, I would rather have Adrianza going forward. Holt had a career year in 2018, pushing himself into the starting 2B gig. I doubt he does that again. The man was almost out of the league after 2017. Plus, Adrianza is a better fielder than any of the other names mentioned. If Polanco is our opening day SS, we don't have the luxury of signing a 2B/3B limited glove like Holt or Walker. Maybe the Twins brass can swing a trade for Katel Marte from the Dbacks, allowing for a 2B/3B bench bat type instead of a glove first MI. My greater point here is that the BMI for every contending team is more or less at the same level as Adrianza. They will probably all be interchangeable according to ZIPS for 2019.

Santana and Cron had very similar xwOBA in 2018. It's likely they both see a lower xwOBA in 2019 as Cron had a huge jump vs his career and Santana is on the downside of his career. That said, the trajectory of 1B in the last couple decades is to peak at 28 (which Cron just did) then level off thru age 30, at which point they start to slowly decline. That means Cron will likely outhit Santana by a smidge over the next two seasons. Santana is a much better fielder. He is also a better fit for the roster allowing you to platoon Austin or Astudillo. In John Bonnes, gun to me head fashion, I'd take the bet on Santana being a better player over the next couple seasons, but it's negligible. If the Twins can strike a deal that is essentially payroll neutral over the next couple seasons then consummate it. Maybe Cron, a C+ prospect and $25mil. If we take Swarzak back in the trade, I suspect Dipoto goes for it. What's the sentiment on Swarzak. Is he washed up? He had a steep dropoff last season and I have not looked into why other than BABIP.