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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    With the Twins near the bottom of the league in pitcher Ks, trading Simmons is going to hurt this team more than others. I'm not advocating we keep Simmons, just that the drop off is going to be substantial unless we plug in a mediocre D, no-bat SS in his place. Moving Polanco back to SS full time should be off the table IMHO. I'd still love for the Twins to find a way to trade with the Rays for Taylor Walls at the deadline...if the Rays are ready to permanently hitch their wagon to Wander Fronco. Maybe take back an aging Kiermaier to pair the prospect Walls with a salary dump and give the Twins a legit backup CF?
  2. Minny505
    Make the Rays ownership an offer they never refuse: cover Cruz's salary.
  3. Minny505
    I want to add the Rays to this list: Nelson Cruz for Taylor Walls. We get a cheap, stud defensive SS for the next 1.5 years with upside that could hold the position for most of the decade. If not, he becomes a true Utility IF when Lewis is ready. Not sexy, but reasonable with the Rays having a glut of SS, including Franco, at the AAA/MLB level right now. Franco is the present and future SS there. Moving Walls off SS diminishes his value significantly at his age, so he seems like trade bait.
  4. Minny505
    This is a feature, not a bug. This is how most of the top bullpens work these days. The best pitcher is the 7/8 inning guy who faces the highest leverage or best hitters in the lineup, while the second best pitcher is generally put in for a clean 9th when the 6, 7, 8 batters are due up and ahead by 2 runs. BTW, is Rocco is nickname? That's the first time I've seen quotations used in reference to him.
  5. Minny505
    Here is why > https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/14317320/aroldis-chapman-fired-gun-accused-choking-girlfriend-domestic-violence-incident He seems like a completely horrible person. I can never root for a team with a player like that...like when "Sully", the podcaster from Boston, stopped following the Red Sox while they had Steven Wright on the roster. Maybe that's a good rule for convicted domestic violence offenders in MLB. You can still play in the league, but you are no longer eligible for any awards, including the Allstar game. It's bad publicity for the league when horrible people have the spotlight shined on them and avoiding that situation is in the best long term interest of everyone on both sides of the CBA.
  6. Minny505
    Nailed it Roger. We have seen high contact prospects "play up" when they get to MLB over the last few years, while low contact guys generally struggle. Rooker and Sano vs Polanco, Gordon, and Arraez, are recent Twins examples of this. We also see this league wide, not just in the Twins system, with guys like Alejandro Kirk, Nick Castellanos, or Adam Frazier, vs Bobby Dalbec, Alec Bohm, or Keston Hiura. Pair that with little-to-no defensive value and you have a recipe for disappointment.
  7. Minny505
    Yup. Like Berrios, Buxton, Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Robles, Kepler, Pineda, Happ, Garver, Arraez, Polanco, etc, they should be placing calls to everyone about each of them to see how many teams are willing to offer good value for any of their current 26 man roster players with 2+ years of experience. It would be a dereliction of duty for the FO to not be trying to find a trade of value for all of them, including Donaldson. No other rationale is really needed.
  8. Minny505
    I never saw any taunting from Donaldson. He kept his face, body, voice, and tone directed toward his own dugout and teammates the entire time. Listening the the national pods on this, from Effectively Wild, to Jomboy, to Starting 9, and everything in between, they all had the same take. Giolitto responded poorly to "fire up/encourage his own team" kind of action from JD. If anyone should be embarrassed, it's Giolitto.
  9. Minny505
    I came here to bang my keyboard loudly as I comment against this sentiment, but it seems about 30 of you beat me to it.
  10. Minny505
    I didn't realize Whitefield was still in the system and having a great two months. I'm really surprised he has not been called up. He has to be a better option than Celestino right now. Not a long-term answer, but a good stop-gap. Good pull! As for the rest, I think you are too aggressive with prospects. There is such a thing as bringing a player up to fast/early. Position players in the minors who are having a hot two months (Miranda and De La Trinadad) need to show it for longer. This is the backup QB looks good for 1.5 games sort of thing and fans start calling for the replacement of the starter permanently, even thought the starter is still a superior player. That is De La Trinadad vs Kepler and Miranda vs Donaldson. It's just too aggressive. Those guys are likely replacement level and 1 win players in 2021 and 2022 respectively. I'd rather have Kepler and Donaldson for those couple seasons. The prospects will get their chance when the current, good players get hurt or decline.
  11. Minny505
    Cruz seems like a prototypical A's trade deadline pickup in a contending season. That seems most likely to me. The Jays have had poor production, but George Springer returned this week after basically missing the whole season so far. With his return, one of those badass corner OF bats moves to DH (probably Teoscar Hernandez for the largest share of starts), turning DH from a weakness into a strength. On top of that, Alejandro Kirk will be coming back from injury soon and suddenly good bats are trying to find time in the DH spot. Jays are out. Pitching will be their focus. Sox will probably not give up much for Cruz due to the division rivalry. There will be other bats the Sox can get from outside the division that they will likely feel more comfortable trading proper value for. And that comes back around to the A's. This just feels inevitable to me.
  12. Minny505
    I've wondered this as well. Even if Polanco is a marginally better SS than Gordon, I'd rather have Gordon play SS for the rest of the season and keep Polanco as the primary 2B. Polanco has been the 2nd worst regular SS on defense in MLB from 2018 to 2020, besting only Gleyber Torres. There is no reason to move him back. We know what he is and it's ugly. Gordon might even be worse, but we really don't know. I'd sure like to find out rather than put Polanco back there.
  13. Minny505
    Pineda may take his place for his Sunday start. Maybe. Though that really only pushes his start back to the next game and Ober goes back to AAA. Because, as fantastic as Ober has been, Happ needs opportunities to salvage trade value thru the deadline. The squad can DFA him come August if they want, but they need to keep running him out there until then.
  14. Minny505
    And with good reason. Even put into context, the DFA of David Ortiz is often regarded as the single worst player personnel decision in the history of MLB. The only move that is even comparable is Babe Ruth being traded by the Red Sox to the Yankees, but as is often pointed out, the Red Sox ownership was at least handsomely compensated for giving up on that player. The Twins literally get nothing but historical notoriety for being horrible at player evaluation. It doesn't just get brought up by the Twins fanbase, but is the gold standard brought up by talking heads and analysts anytime a team gives up on a player that goes on to have success elsewhere. It's hard for that wound to heal when it is constantly picked at by both ourselves and others.
  15. Minny505
    This is it. This is the biggest issue right here with pace of play. When I watch a game the next day on MLB.tv, I fast forward 20 seconds between every pitch. I find I'm starting to do 25 seconds as the pitches seem to be coming even slower this season.
  16. Minny505
    Obviously I am in complete agreement Ted. From looking over about 50 hitters on Statcast (because of a large prize fairy tale league) Donaldson had far and away the largest discrepancy in woba and xwoba. His hits will start landing. Very few guys in MLB are peppering the baseball right at fielders with the regularity Donaldson is.
  17. Minny505
    According to statcast, he is sporting the highest xwoba of his statcast era life. He has a crazy low babip compared to his xbabip. He just needs to stay in the lineup and keep doing what he is doing. Nothing to change here. Those batted balls will starts to find grass.
  18. Minny505
    According to pretty much all metrics, the main problem has been pitching. The squad has a Top 5 MLB ranking in both offense and defense via Statcast/Baseball Savant. X Bat loves this team. The pitching has been dead last though and getting to even 29th by the end of the season will be a tall order they are so far back from the pack. It's the same old problem this team had during it's terrible years over the last decade. New management and coaches, same result. Talk about PTSD, with an emphasis on the Disorder. If any coach is going to get axed, it needs to be Wes Johnson. The slide for every pitcher on this team, minus Taylor, Pineda, and Berrios, is alarming. Really though, the FO is to blame here. They scraped the bottom of the barrel when it came to shopping for pitching in the offseason, with Happ, Shoemaker, Robles, Colome, Law, Anderson, Albers, Hamilton, Leyer, Farrel, etc. I understand paying for pitching brings more inherent risk than paying for hitting/defense, but that's all this team really needs. Even going from the worst pitching in MLB to 20th would likely have this team in the middle of contention. DJ, play that one again!!?
  19. Minny505
    Statcast has the Twins as tied for the #3 defense in MLB. It also shows the Twins as the #2 offense in MLB. The downfall, which will surprise no one here, is the pitching. Our favorite squad has the worst pitching in MLB and it is by a WIDE margin.
  20. Minny505
    Huh? People are hating on Astudillo? I hear/read nothing but praise of the player, minus one podcast host (of the 20 MLB/Twins podcasts I listen to). Twins Daily loves him. Twitter loves him. Fangraphs loves him. The Ringer. Twinkie Town. The Athletic. Etc. This seems like a defense looking for an accusation. You could have just written an article praising Astudillo for being a solid 26th man instead of making up a non-existent narrative. (sorry for the harsh criticism, but I detest blogging and journalism that is trying to stir up controversy)
  21. Minny505
    This is a fantastic point that should be applied to almost any statistical breakdown, whether sports, the economy, healthcare outcomes, customer value, etc. The median is almost always a closer indicator of the most meaningful findings than the mean is.
  22. Minny505
    I was going to comment that the Twins probably send down Dobnak to get a start or two before having him replace Shoemaker. Good to hear the Twins are already on this. It seems like I am in the minority here, but I would much rather hand the keys to Dobnak vs Thorpe as a permanent replacement. Track record means a lot more to a team like the Twins. I will not argue upside being in Dobnak's favor, but the data suggests the floor for Dobnak is MUCH higher at this stage.
  23. Minny505
    Smashing the like button on this one. It seemed a poor decision out of ST and the results haven't made the decision look any better. Not many decisions by this team over the last few years surprise me, but keeping Dobnak on the roster to pitch out of the pen legitimately surprised me. Count me as one of the many who thinks he should be sent to St Paul to continue pitching 5-6 innings every fifth day.
  24. Minny505
    The author laid it out perfectly. This, along with Colome, seem like the biggest talking point in the early season. Polanco has hit like a bottom third of the order bat for nearly two years. More than anything I hope Polanco turns it around. Until then, he needs to be dropped to the 9 spot and given more days off. And that turnaround may not happen this season as his LHB swing looks like it needs to be completely rebuilt. He just looks terrible right now, regardless of the results.
  25. Minny505
    I'd still be surprised to see Dobnak in the bullpen as I would think the Twins prefer to keep him stretched out as a starter at the alt site, but most here seem to think differently. He'll likely be one of the five most valuable SP by the season's end. It would be a shame to waste that in the bullpen.
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