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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    This is a solution looking for a problem. Plan M may be a little too high in the alphabet. There are a lot of better options potentially available to the Twins for a solution at SS, some long term, some short term. Sign: -Trevor Story -Andrelton Simmons (prime bounce back candidate in 2022 according to many league wide nerdy analyst types) -Jose Iglesias Trade: -Paul DeJong (rumors are the Cards are not looking to deal him) -Taylor Walls (stud defensive SS in minors...rumors are the Rays are open to dealing him) -Ramon Urias (my fave target...rumors are the Orioles are looking to deal him before he slides down the defensive spectrum, as he is still a passable SS, and loses his trade value)
  2. Minny505
    And if UZR is not your flavor, he had the worst three year run of any SS on defense according to OOA during the still early Statcast era. I don't want to see him at SS at all except in an emergency, extra innings, sort of situation. Let Gordon be the primary backup. Let Arraez be #3 on the depth chart. I truly believe neither of those guys would be worse at SS over 150 games than Polanco.
  3. Minny505
    This is the best way to state the proposition of trading him. If he can actually bring back an asset or two, a Nelson Cruz-like package, then deal him. Otherwise, you keep him. Yes, that's aiming high. His bat is worth keeping unless a couple prospects that slide into the Twins top 20 is the return.
  4. Minny505
    Donaldson is hands down the best hitter the Twins have. His performance so far has absolutely lived up to the contract. The Twins would never compete to sign a player of Donaldson's caliber if it wasn't for the injury concerns. His profile gets closer to $26mil a year if he's a consistent 145ish games a year player, even at his age. Those numbers are the best of the best. Getting more time at DH will hopefully help him stay in the lineup more often. It worked in the last couple months of the 2021 season. Not opposed to trading him, like anyone, I just seriously doubt the team can get even reasonable value for him. Trading him away opens a huge void in the middle of the lineup. I'd rather salary dump Sano if that is the goal. Like Mauer, Donaldson's contract is not really preventing the Twins from getting better. Even the most Pohlad-friendly budget estimations show the Twins have at least $40mil to spend on the 2022 team.
  5. Minny505
    Eno Sarris mentioned this past season that he believes the Statcast xBA, and other expected rates, incorporates Sprint Speed as part of the algorithm.
  6. Minny505
    The more I read about, and dig into the metrics for, Dylan Bundy, the worse I feel about the signing. It's the exact kind of signing a team like the Twins should not be making. The upside is a 4 starter. The downside is JA Happ in the first half of 2021. Bundy is a perfectly reasonable signing for a team like the Mets who are looking to compete and need a 5th starter who has some MLB history of being perfectly reliable in that role, rather than relying on the volitility of a AAAA guy in their system, or the volitility of 25 year old, B- level, SP prospects. There was a line spoken by the great Eno Sarris a couple months back on his podcast where he was quoting an anonymous GM (obviously not with the Twins) that said, "I don't want to sign a guy like [Dylan Bundy] to be our fifth starter when we have prospects to be our fifth starter. When we go into free agency, we want to sign upside and give those prospects a chance if the FA signing fails." That is how the Twins need be approaching free agency. If the FA pitcher kills it and the team is contending, you ride them to the end. If the FA pitcher is killing it but the team is out of it, you get a great return in a trade. If that FA pitcher is hurt or terrible, the team is likely out of it anyway, giving a prospect some valuable MLB experience (after cutting the FA pitcher if terrible). Getting reliable innings does almost nothing for the Twins. They have plenty of "5" starters (meaning prospects). They need to go the high risk, high reward with FAs. Bundy is just high risk, moderate reward. I don't mind FA pitchers on one year deals for $10mil or less. Rich Hill was exactly that, but of the high risk high reward variety. Even Michael Pineda was that in practice, but of the high risk, high reward variety. Matt Shoemaker was sort of the same thing, but of the kind that fails. Oh well. Prospects got some valuable experience in his place. That's a good signing. FWIW, I'd rather sign Matt Shoemaker again. No, that is not hyperbole. Shoe at least had a decent finish to 2021 with some noticeable adjustments under the tutelage of pitch whisperer Brian Banister.
  7. Minny505
    I'm in the camp that believes Dobnak is clearly one of the 3 best pitchers in the Twins MLB rotation right now. He's just a half tick behind Bailey Ober. Steamer projections seem to agree with me. If given a fair shot, I expect Dobnak to be a solid 4.25 ERA level pitcher, slightly outperforming his Steamer projection.
  8. Minny505
    In 2021, the average offensive production of MLB SS surpassed that of 2B, so it may have been a slide down the defensive scale, but his offense looks even better there compared to his full-time 2B peers. With his offense and defense combined, he may be a 2-ish win SS, but he is a 4-ish win 2B. He's arguably a Top 3 hitter at SS. He would be in the back end of the Top 10 list best best offensive SS. I'm so bullish on him. Combine his contract and durability, and I put him at #1 personally...but that's picking nits. Buxton and Polanco are clearly the top two on this list and it's really more of a 1a and 1b situation. I wish there was more pitching here to compliment all this position player talent.
  9. Minny505

    2022 = Development Year

    Minny505 commented on Franz's blog entry in Greg Fransen

    I'd happily take Simmons back as a decent Plan E. Walls is not going to be as good of a defender as Simmons, even being 7 years younger, but only a handful of SS in MLB are as good defensively as Simmons, so that is no slight. He has GG potential, but isn't there yet.
  10. Minny505
    A note on Arraez's value, and maybe this is where @Nick Nelson and I disagree, is that he is a Super 2 and has four years of team control left, not three. That is certainly a component of why I would put him at 5 or 6 on the Assets list instead of 11. That said, I am wide open to trading him if the Twins brass can get appropriate value for him. With Martin not far from the majors, the Twins have a reasonable replacement for his offensive production coming soon.
  11. Minny505
    I believe that Arraez has actually had his value dropped on BTV over the past few weeks by 5 points as they have been updating players. He was ranked #2 in value, right after Kirilloff.
  12. Minny505
    I expect Dobnak to be the biggest surprise positive contributor for most Twins fans in 2022, provided he is given a fair opportunity by management. It's important to keep in mind that Dobnak is only a few months older than Bailey Ober. Despite horrid production in an injury plagued 2021, where he was also jacked around by management in order to get Shoemaker and Happ more starts (joke's on me though as that obviously turned out well), Dobnak has nearly identical predictive stats to Ober for their respective careers, essentially splitting the lead on FIP, SIERA, etc. Steamer projects those two for similar 2022 season production as well.
  13. Minny505

    2022 = Development Year

    Minny505 commented on Franz's blog entry in Greg Fransen

    Count me in the Taylor Walls fan club. He may or not be a viable starting SS with the bat, but his glove is enough to carry him thru a couple seasons to find out. If he can't cut it, he takes over a true SS-capable UI role, a la Nick Punto. If he can, we have a stud defensive SS for the next 5-7 seasons, a la Omar Visquel.
  14. Minny505
    Such a fun series Seth. Is this the first year you have done an in-depth, 60 prospect countdown? I don't remember you going this deep in the past.
  15. Minny505
    I spoke a little hastily using them as a group. You are correct that a lot of them are showing up for the first time. I guess my point is that pitching prospects in particular are ridiculously volatile and I value distance to the majors more than Seth. Right now, I'm more bullish on Sands, Varland, and/or Strottman, having an impact at the MLB level than I am on Raya, Povich, or Hajjar, strictly due to the former group already accomplishing what I hope those players in the latter group will accomplish when they reach the upper minors or at the same age. I just don't dream on upside in pitching prospects as much and I'm perfectly willing to admit that could be a flaw in how I value said prospects.
  16. Minny505
    The Donaldson season is quite encouraging. It seems the fanbase is more down on him due to his production rather than his performance. If he had a history of underforming his statcast numbers, a la Max Kepler, then I understand. But he doesn't. He had one of the largest negative differences in MLB for xwOBA vs wOBA in 2021. If the baseball gods have any sense of justice, Donaldson will be in for an incrediblly productive year, one that outpaces his performance.
  17. Minny505
    As has been commented by others, this is where my prospect ranking philosophy diverges from Mr Stohs. Most of the guys in the 11-20 range of this list once profiled as Petty/Raya/Povich/Hajjar. As you can see, the shine has worn off all but Duran at this point. That said, 11-15 in particular is ranked such mostly for missing time on the field as their performance has been borderline dominant when pitching. Pitching prospects burn out at an alarming rate and if this group, sans Duran, turns out like Sands/Enlow/Varland at 23/24 years old, we should be very pleased. By that logic, I would rank those pitchers higher than most of the lottery tickets here, retaining only Petty (and Duran) in the Top 10. Nothing wrong with weighting ceiling so heavily, just different.
  18. Minny505
    A one year deal for any of the FA CF options is reasonable. I really like the Altherr suggestion by @Heistyman. Celestino and/or Martin are likely the long-term answer here and both are likely to be ready before the end of the 2022 season. Gordon is prefectly adequate placeholder to start 2022 though if payroll can be better allocated. With the way the Twins approached FA before the lockout, there is no reason to believe 2022 will be a competitive year, but rather building year. A placeholder like Gordon is ideal in that scenario as contract-committed veteran-mediocrity can lead to poor decision making regarding playing time for (potential) rookies. Gordon can be more easily marginalized or cut loose.
  19. Minny505
    Jamie, I'm a little surprised that in the pitching pipeline section you mention Ober, but not Dobnak. Dobnak is only a few months older than Ober. Even with the awful 2021 season included, where Dobnak was jacked around by management and pitched injured, it would be impossible to tell which of the two will have the better MLB career by their career MLB predictive stats at this point. That's how good Dobnak was in his first two seasons. Steamer projects them to essentially by the same pitcher when it comes to run prevention in 2022, though they get there in different ways. They both are 3/4 type starters and both are competing for a spot in the rotation for 2023 and beyond. Other than that omission, great insight.
  20. Minny505
    I was going to comment something similar. They all seem quite old for their levels to be prospects. I assume that is largely due to the covid response of cancelling the MiL season. I sort of expected more aggressive promotions in 2021, but the Twins seemed to treat 2021 like the 2020 season rather than the 2021 season. Does that make sense as I wrote it? Are most MLB orgs handling their prospects the same way?
  21. Minny505
    Good info. I didn't know all that. Admittedly, my daily fandom waned a little bit in the last month or so as I started following the races MLB wide more closely instead. That does change my perception and certainly negates the concern I mentioned.
  22. Minny505
    This. Once he got to the big leagues and the worlds best scouts picked him apart, he really struggled to make the adjustment when that gameplan was executed by the worlds best pitchers. That's fine. That happens to many rookies. That is not what is concerning. What is concerning is that when he went to AAA and that same master gameplan against him was used, but by vastly inferior pitchers, he still couldn't make the adjustment. Celestino is a great example of the kind of turnaround you expect to see from a top prospect. Laurnach did not do that. Hopefully it was an undisclosed injury. Because if he struggled that much to make an approach or mechanical change against AAA pitching, he is essentially a poor man's version of Miguel Sano and will not last long at The Show.
  23. Minny505
    The write up on Arraez surprises me and I'm going to bite. Count me among the group that believes he should be higher, possibly as high as 4, no lower than 7. I know it is not about trade value, but the simulator has Arraez ranked as the Twins most valuable player. While #1 seems high, #11 seems low. He and Donaldson are the only reliable on base guys in the lineup. He may not have a position in the field, but he has a spot in the lineup on lockdown. That has more value than others that will appear in this top 10 list.
  24. Minny505
    One of my favorite TD annual series @Nick Nelson! Unlike others here, I'm quite high on Celestino. A solid RHB that can play a competent CF. A perfect 4th OF that will compliment our LHB heavy corners.
  25. Minny505
    Recency bias in the Dobnak vs Ober attitude is stunning for Twins Daily readers. I expect a less hot-take crowd here. I would not be surprised at all if Dobnak had a better season than Ryan or Ober, contingent on health for all. I don't expect it, but I would not be surprised. Dobnak was better than either Ryan or Ober thru their first X MLB starts and Dobnak's success was spread across two seasons where hitters had an offseason to make the adjustment and he adjusted right back. I do expect Dobnak to be better than Bundy, given the same amount of starts.
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