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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    Pierzynski is the best FOX national TV broadcast game analyst, right there with CJ Nitkowski. Smoltz needs to get the boot for the lead game of the week and the lead playoff series in favor of one of those two. Their insights are so valuable and entertaining. It feels like a long time since Mark Grace was a game analyst and AJ is the closest thing to him that I have ever heard. Listening to John Smolts is like a half step improvement on Bert Blylevin. The baseball world deserves better.
  2. Minny505
    Hands down my favorite regular read (at least I hope it will become that) on Twins Daily, which is a huge compliment. Being a new way to look at data, I also want to make a suggestion. Changing the league average OPS to a rolling average as well. The OPS being a flat bar, particularly in a season like 2022, can be deceiving. Having a rolling league average would show us individual trends vs league wide trends. Or put them both on the graph. Regardless, I'll be digging in every time you publish.
  3. Minny505
    Completely agree. And those veteran OFers got next to nothing in return. I do think Kepler is more valuable as a trade chip than any of them, but it's likely not enough to get anything of value for that would help in 2022 or 2023, if ever. Just ask yourself...if you had a great trade offer on the table and that offer is the same, could be prospects or vets, provided you give that offering team one of: Miranda, Kirilloff, or Kepler. Even for a team leading the division going into August, you are trading Kepler 100% of the time. To me, that is the definition of trade value.
  4. Minny505
    Do you mean in the offseason? The Angels have no hope of contending for a wild card spot this season and will only be interested in prospect packages with their payroll situation.
  5. Minny505
    Maybe I'm wrong, but I suspect that if you offered the Phillies, Mets, Marlins, Astros, or nearly any other contending team, Kepler, Miranda, or Kirilloff, every one of them would offer up a better package for Kirilloff or Miranda. Some will prefer Kepler if they more value OF defense, but that's it. Most will want the better bats. In fact, trading Miranda or Kirilloff to the Phillies for pitching may be on the table. I assure you, they have no interest in Kepler and they are very much in contention.
  6. Minny505
    I don't understand this list. I agree with Polanco, Arraez, & Ryan, all having an argument for five most valuable trade chips. Buxton and Kepler are so out of place though. Kirilloff, Miranda, & Duran, all have far more trade value than those two. Probably Bailey Ober as well (at least until the mysterious injury that has him sidelined for months past the original eval predictions). If you text the Reds GM and start the negotiation with Max Kepler, you might get a "Is this a joke? I'm not in the mood." in response...and you become a laughing stock as a screenshot of your offer goes viral thru the leagues front offices. You are terminated 17 minutes later after Dave St. Peter gets the screenshot, can never find a job in baseball again, become an alcoholic to cope with your dream life evaporating, and die of jaundice at the age of 52. You offer Miranda, and the Reds GM probably responds with, "That's a good start. We'd also like two of the three following guys to be included. I got the Dodgers offering xxx right now." That's trade value. Don't mistakenly offer Max Kepler thinking he has trade value. It's bad for your health.
  7. Minny505
    Unless Kepler or Buxton end up on the IL as a result of their current injuries, Celestino needs to go down for his own good. He is not yet a great major leaguer, meaning he has struggled to make the latest necessary adjustments, and seems to need AAA time against lesser competition to figure it out and come back roaring. In the meantime, Sano naturally takes his place on the 13 man. He plays DH when no one else is getting that partial day off.
  8. Minny505
    I heard Eno Sarris comment on one of his podcasts a few weeks ago that he is super frustrated with Pagan because he would be elite if he would just stop throwing the cutter. That's all. Stop throwing the cutter and he would be an excellent reliever. It has horrible stuff+ and command+ ratings in his system. His other offerings are above-average to wicked-good. I don't understand his (Pagan's) stubborness on continuing to use that pitch. It is one of the worst pitches in MLB.
  9. Minny505
    When adjusting for the league average, which is portrayed in baseball statistics by adding a + to the end of a stat. So, OPS+ indicates a players OPS compared to the rest of the league that season. Right now Arraez has a BA+ of 147. That is equal to the BA+ that Ted Williams had in 1941 when he hit .406. Essentially, Luis Arraez would be hitting .400 right now if he played in 1941. That's amazing! He is having the best batting everage season we have seen since 1958. There are many analysts of the Fangraphs/Statcast ilk that are watching to see if Arraez can keep this up to match, or surpass, the greatest batting average season in MLB history. How fun would if be if he breaks that record at season's end!? Twins broadcast team needs to be making a big deal of this. He's chasing a 64 year old BA record!!!
  10. Minny505
    Bundy, Ober, Smeltzer, and Winder, all have crazy similar xERA/FIP/xFIP numbers. I would take an upgrade on any of them for our 3rd starter. Any one of these five guys in the article accomplish that. I'd take the lowest cost in trade capital, whichever that is. I would move Archer to a bullpen role upon return from the IL and see if he plays up to be a dependable high leverage arm by October. He's clearly the worst of the starters with six better options ahead of him when all are healthy, seven if a trade is made. [Obligatory: Bullpen is the main area to upgrade thru trades]
  11. Minny505
    Another one in agreement on the Sox being the main threat. That said, both the Sox and Indians have a better real record than their BaseRuns record, while the Twins are pretty much spot on. I do expect the Sox to trade to make themselves better, but they have a lot of improving to do in the second half to look like a real competitor to the Twins. I would not be surprised to see the Guardians once again be sellers at the deadline even if they have a winning record.
  12. Minny505
    I might be focusing on this statement too much, but that was not a meltdown. If that is a meltdown, 80% of MLB bullpens meltdown every night of the season. Giving up runs happens. I feel like a meltdown requires 3+ runs to be given up.
  13. Minny505
    Miranda and Arraez should be getting most of the 3B & DH starts going forward, with Arraez getting some 1B time as well. He's really good over there. Miranda is terrible at 1B and I'd rather he be the "break glass in case of emergency" option.
  14. Minny505
    Production for minor leaguers, especially prior to AAA, is hard to evaluate. Many are focusing on weaker parts of their game, which often leads to lower production than their true talent level. This is why scouting is so important here. That said, if Martin can translate that OBP to the MLB level at a .360+ clip, he can essentially be Steven Kwan or Connor Joe like, but with better defense and baserunning. That's a top of the lineup batter that can give the squad 3 or more wins a year. I love it.
  15. Minny505
    I'd like to see Arraez get the majority of starts at 3B when Kirilloff and Polanco are healthy. Urshela makes a fantastic Utility Infielder, being a league averagish RH bat with no true defensive strengths. Arraez would be an upgrade on offense and possibly on defense. That said, there are plenty of starts to be had in LF for Kirilloff until Larnach returns.
  16. Minny505
    Twins have Thornburg throwing a slider for the first time in his 9 season career. It's grading out pretty rad-like. If it's not just a shiny new toy that hitters start to pick up on, he could be a legit weapon. Especially if he drops that nonsense curveball that has had a negative run value every season since 2014.
  17. Minny505
    Maybe 3 for 33mil? With his injury history and age, it seems risky to give him more. At 11mil a season, he's not going to hurt you too much if he can only pitch 80-100 innings.
  18. Minny505
    This doesn't seem likely. He's probably about as available as: Carlos Rodon Noah Sydergaard Aaron Nola Charlie Morton Adam Wainwright Corey Kluber (Knowing the Rays, he actually might be available. Fair enough) Sean Manea Why Gibson as opposed to these other pitchers?
  19. Minny505
    I remember the Sabato pick. I confusedly exclaimed, "What the ****!? Why?" Nothing I heard or read after justified the pick in my mind. That was a terrible pick the moment it was made. I still don't understand it. Also, huge props for spelling out the guttural "OOffftttaaa". Living outside Minnesota for the last 19 years, that made me giggle.
  20. Minny505
    Jeffers is a strange case. His BaseballSavant page looks solid, but the results are horrible. Savant has Jeffers listed as the 10th most unlucky batter in MLB this season, with a .071 point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA. He has an elite barrel rate and an expected slug that would earn him a solid extension offer if his results matched, but they just don't. The issue seems to be a complete lack of strike zone control...ironic considering he has such a great strike zone control behind the plate. I expect his production to regress, or progress if you will, to the mean. He just needs more time. I don't expect him to be a good hitter, but I think league average is attainable.
  21. Minny505
    Sorry to burst the bubble, but if the Yankees break the record, it will be impossible for the Twins to face them in the first round as the Yankees will have a first round bye with the new playoff structure. The top two teams in the AL/NL get byes. That said, if the Twins can win the division, they will get three home games for the first round, best of three.
  22. Minny505
    Jeffers is a borderline elite defensive catcher. In addition, his Baseball Savant swing results scream breakout. If he ever learns some patience at the plate, he's going to be a monster. Sanchez, on the other hand, is one of the worst defensive catchers in MLB that gets regular time behind the plate. In addition, his Baseball Savant offensive profile would lead you to assume he must be a defensive wizard since he has a job. He's not.
  23. Minny505
    Sanchez better start hitting. A weak hitting, poor fielding catcher is not really an asset. At least be decent at one of those things.
  24. Minny505
    Risking injury. I don't disagree with hustling in that specific situation, but 99% of the time that players don't hustle, it's the right decision. Unfortunately that may have been one of those 1% plays.
  25. Minny505
    I was going to put this here as well. Of all the hitters the Twins have had on the roster since 2019, only Nelson Cruz has hit LHP better. Garlick would be firmly planted as a top 10 hitter in MLB if he could put that up for his total line. As a bench player though, on a team where the primary corner outfielders hit left handed, his role is about as secure as anyone.
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