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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    Unless Kepler or Buxton end up on the IL as a result of their current injuries, Celestino needs to go down for his own good. He is not yet a great major leaguer, meaning he has struggled to make the latest necessary adjustments, and seems to need AAA time against lesser competition to figure it out and come back roaring. In the meantime, Sano naturally takes his place on the 13 man. He plays DH when no one else is getting that partial day off.
  2. Minny505
    I heard Eno Sarris comment on one of his podcasts a few weeks ago that he is super frustrated with Pagan because he would be elite if he would just stop throwing the cutter. That's all. Stop throwing the cutter and he would be an excellent reliever. It has horrible stuff+ and command+ ratings in his system. His other offerings are above-average to wicked-good. I don't understand his (Pagan's) stubborness on continuing to use that pitch. It is one of the worst pitches in MLB.
  3. Minny505
    When adjusting for the league average, which is portrayed in baseball statistics by adding a + to the end of a stat. So, OPS+ indicates a players OPS compared to the rest of the league that season. Right now Arraez has a BA+ of 147. That is equal to the BA+ that Ted Williams had in 1941 when he hit .406. Essentially, Luis Arraez would be hitting .400 right now if he played in 1941. That's amazing! He is having the best batting everage season we have seen since 1958. There are many analysts of the Fangraphs/Statcast ilk that are watching to see if Arraez can keep this up to match, or surpass, the greatest batting average season in MLB history. How fun would if be if he breaks that record at season's end!? Twins broadcast team needs to be making a big deal of this. He's chasing a 64 year old BA record!!!
  4. Minny505
    Bundy, Ober, Smeltzer, and Winder, all have crazy similar xERA/FIP/xFIP numbers. I would take an upgrade on any of them for our 3rd starter. Any one of these five guys in the article accomplish that. I'd take the lowest cost in trade capital, whichever that is. I would move Archer to a bullpen role upon return from the IL and see if he plays up to be a dependable high leverage arm by October. He's clearly the worst of the starters with six better options ahead of him when all are healthy, seven if a trade is made. [Obligatory: Bullpen is the main area to upgrade thru trades]
  5. Minny505
    Another one in agreement on the Sox being the main threat. That said, both the Sox and Indians have a better real record than their BaseRuns record, while the Twins are pretty much spot on. I do expect the Sox to trade to make themselves better, but they have a lot of improving to do in the second half to look like a real competitor to the Twins. I would not be surprised to see the Guardians once again be sellers at the deadline even if they have a winning record.
  6. Minny505
    I might be focusing on this statement too much, but that was not a meltdown. If that is a meltdown, 80% of MLB bullpens meltdown every night of the season. Giving up runs happens. I feel like a meltdown requires 3+ runs to be given up.
  7. Minny505
    Miranda and Arraez should be getting most of the 3B & DH starts going forward, with Arraez getting some 1B time as well. He's really good over there. Miranda is terrible at 1B and I'd rather he be the "break glass in case of emergency" option.
  8. Minny505
    Production for minor leaguers, especially prior to AAA, is hard to evaluate. Many are focusing on weaker parts of their game, which often leads to lower production than their true talent level. This is why scouting is so important here. That said, if Martin can translate that OBP to the MLB level at a .360+ clip, he can essentially be Steven Kwan or Connor Joe like, but with better defense and baserunning. That's a top of the lineup batter that can give the squad 3 or more wins a year. I love it.
  9. Minny505
    I'd like to see Arraez get the majority of starts at 3B when Kirilloff and Polanco are healthy. Urshela makes a fantastic Utility Infielder, being a league averagish RH bat with no true defensive strengths. Arraez would be an upgrade on offense and possibly on defense. That said, there are plenty of starts to be had in LF for Kirilloff until Larnach returns.
  10. Minny505
    Twins have Thornburg throwing a slider for the first time in his 9 season career. It's grading out pretty rad-like. If it's not just a shiny new toy that hitters start to pick up on, he could be a legit weapon. Especially if he drops that nonsense curveball that has had a negative run value every season since 2014.
  11. Minny505
    Maybe 3 for 33mil? With his injury history and age, it seems risky to give him more. At 11mil a season, he's not going to hurt you too much if he can only pitch 80-100 innings.
  12. Minny505
    This doesn't seem likely. He's probably about as available as: Carlos Rodon Noah Sydergaard Aaron Nola Charlie Morton Adam Wainwright Corey Kluber (Knowing the Rays, he actually might be available. Fair enough) Sean Manea Why Gibson as opposed to these other pitchers?
  13. Minny505
    I remember the Sabato pick. I confusedly exclaimed, "What the ****!? Why?" Nothing I heard or read after justified the pick in my mind. That was a terrible pick the moment it was made. I still don't understand it. Also, huge props for spelling out the guttural "OOffftttaaa". Living outside Minnesota for the last 19 years, that made me giggle.
  14. Minny505
    Jeffers is a strange case. His BaseballSavant page looks solid, but the results are horrible. Savant has Jeffers listed as the 10th most unlucky batter in MLB this season, with a .071 point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA. He has an elite barrel rate and an expected slug that would earn him a solid extension offer if his results matched, but they just don't. The issue seems to be a complete lack of strike zone control...ironic considering he has such a great strike zone control behind the plate. I expect his production to regress, or progress if you will, to the mean. He just needs more time. I don't expect him to be a good hitter, but I think league average is attainable.
  15. Minny505
    Sorry to burst the bubble, but if the Yankees break the record, it will be impossible for the Twins to face them in the first round as the Yankees will have a first round bye with the new playoff structure. The top two teams in the AL/NL get byes. That said, if the Twins can win the division, they will get three home games for the first round, best of three.
  16. Minny505
    Jeffers is a borderline elite defensive catcher. In addition, his Baseball Savant swing results scream breakout. If he ever learns some patience at the plate, he's going to be a monster. Sanchez, on the other hand, is one of the worst defensive catchers in MLB that gets regular time behind the plate. In addition, his Baseball Savant offensive profile would lead you to assume he must be a defensive wizard since he has a job. He's not.
  17. Minny505
    Sanchez better start hitting. A weak hitting, poor fielding catcher is not really an asset. At least be decent at one of those things.
  18. Minny505
    Risking injury. I don't disagree with hustling in that specific situation, but 99% of the time that players don't hustle, it's the right decision. Unfortunately that may have been one of those 1% plays.
  19. Minny505
    I was going to put this here as well. Of all the hitters the Twins have had on the roster since 2019, only Nelson Cruz has hit LHP better. Garlick would be firmly planted as a top 10 hitter in MLB if he could put that up for his total line. As a bench player though, on a team where the primary corner outfielders hit left handed, his role is about as secure as anyone.
  20. Minny505
    Height at 1B is extremely helpful when the rest of the IF is less talented. in HS and college, that height advantage can be extreme, as the 1B has to stretch up and down the line to snag poor throws on a regular basis. MLB fielders were closer to this for most of MLB history, so it's no surprise the belief exists. In the modern MLB game, fielders around the IF have such incredible arms that throws are rarely needed to be stretched for horizontally. They just don't make as many errant throws. Footwork/positioning and scooping ability is much more important in modern MLB. ------------------- [side note: I play amateur baseball. The main, and very noticeable, difference between 30 year old amateurs and 30 year old pros on defense is the ability to throw. Most amateur players at comparable ages seem to have similar range and glovework as their professional counterparts. But wow, the throwing is SOOOOO different.]
  21. Minny505
    Getting Garlick some 1B work would do wonders. Arraez has looked shockingly proficient at 1B, particularly on scoops. That said, his numbers against LHP are "meh" at best and unplayable at worst...like he's going now. Rotating Garlick between RF and 1B against LHP would be the best way to maximize his production.
  22. Minny505
    Incredibly well written article Matt. Really fun way to digest this info. Thank you.
  23. Minny505
    I heard on the Pitcherlist podcast that the Twins barreled 13 balls against Verlander and didn't score a run. Baseball is weird sometimes. (Note: I think it was barrels. Might have been hits over 100 MPH. How would I look something like that up?)
  24. Minny505
    I'd move the Jays to 4 and slide the Astros and Twins down one each to accommodate...but that's just picking nits.
  25. Minny505
    A high-contact, walk-taking, slap-hitting, speedster has a lot of value. This version of him is better than I had hoped for. Let's see if he can keep it up!
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