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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    Awesome for the clarification. Thank you.
  2. Minny505
    Arraez is soo impressive at 1B and has been since he started playing there. Familiarity was an issue, but skill was not. GG voting is based off three metrics correct, not just SDI?
  3. Minny505
    I mean, Gordon is the obvious choice here. What a month! Correa's numbers are a pleasant surprise. It just rarely seemed to translate in runs in any way (#sequencing). That said, if he can keep it up it will.
  4. Minny505
    Great write up and yes, all those additions have lived up to, or exceeded, expectations. It's unfortunate that, after the trades, both Polanco and Buxton have been playing injured (at a substandard level) or on the IL. I feel like this team would be firmly in first place in the division if they stayed healthy. That's a lot of production they missed for most of the month between: Polanco Buxton Kirilloff Larnach Garlick If we can get all but Kirilloff back and healthy within the next few weeks, this team is going to be dangerous.
  5. Minny505
    That WPA for Urshela has to be one of the largest positive game for a Twins position player all season. Crazy!
  6. Minny505
    I hate saying this, but the absence of Pagan in the box score may be the reason why.
  7. Minny505
    Is Sands hurt? He hasn't pitched in a week and this seemed like a great spot to get him an inning or two.
  8. Minny505
    I never said good. I said solid and a lateral move from Urshela. Miranda: Urshela: Looks like a lateral move to me. That said, this is far too small of a sample size for Miranda to draw any solid conclusions. However, Urshela has a long history of being an average-ish 3B, which is what I mean by solid. And based on what we can possibly glean from this data, they look like pretty comparable fielders.
  9. Minny505
    I actually think we are seeing Miranda's regression to his current mean right now, and that is an .850 OPS hitter with solid 3B defense. His defense at 3B has impressed. Don't let the ugly 1B defense, which is a footwork issue, taint your view of his defense at 3B. It's essentially a lateral move from Urshela to Miranda on defense, and Miranda bangs. Arraez and Miranda are the lynchpins of the offense. Buxton is like a bonus when he's in there and not striking out.
  10. Minny505
    This seems like a more accurate picture than what TD is painting in these comments. Miranda has a strong argument for the best hitting rookie, but he is a coinflip to even place top five at this point for the league ROTY.
  11. Minny505
    The Correa opt-out is starting to get chatter on a national level. More pundits are looking at his season, along with his history, and saying that 2021 is looking like the outlier and him being a 3.5-4 WAR player is the median. That is not going to secure him the payday he is looking for. Right now, he'll get the Semien contract in FA, but he wants the Seagar contract. Odds are still that he opts out, but it's getting closer to a coin flip than any of us expected the day the deal was announced.
  12. Minny505
    This should have been a Pagan game. If you have him on the roster, these are the games you play him in. He is there to soak up an innings or two when it doesn't matter and the Twins just need to finish the game. The risk of him making his next appearance when a game is close just got higher.
  13. Minny505
    Agreed. Astros probably have an envelope sitting in the GM office with Justin Verlander's name on it. Inside is a check for $80mil and a contract for two years.
  14. Minny505
    As stated, the Pagan splits this season may be an anomaly. That said, Pagan himself is an anomaly. When checking his Statcast page he looks like a really solid, borderline elite, pitcher. And he is for 93% of his pitches. He is elite. And then, every 12th pitch he forgets how to throw like a big leaguer, and he throws a cement mixer middle-middle and it gets obliterated. It's been that way for 3 seasons now. His K% is elite and his BB% is great, but in his last 127.2 innings he has given up 30 HRs. That is good for the 3rd worst HR/9 of all MLB players still active since the start of 2020, minimum 120 IP. The two guys above him are both young SP that are learning the ropes of MLB that will probably be converted to RP roles, a la, Griffin Jax. Pagan really is an anomaly. That is why he keeps getting chances. Fixing that 12th pitch is like chasing the dragon.
  15. Minny505
    The option on Bundy should be declined. I'm not opposed to bringing him back, but I'd rather decline the option and sign him back for $5, which is what his caliber of pitcher gets. Depending on the health of Maeda and Dobnak going into the offseason, we may need a fringe veteran 5th starter that we can cut if he fails. I just prefer more upside than Bundy.
  16. Minny505
    Agreed. At least owners of MLB teams like the Mets, Padres, Tigers of the 2010's, and I'm sure others, are deciding it's okay to essentially break even on cash-flow owning a baseball team, rather than pocketing 10s, and sometimes 100s, of millions of dollars every year. And that's on top of owning all the real estate around the stadium while having the public pay for their building of operations, plus having team resale value appreciate year over year by 5%-20% in real dollars (not nominal). I equate it to receiving tax dollars to personally invest in premium real estate, with essentially no strings attached or need to pay it back. That investment generates massive cash-flow from day one. It being in a premium neighborhood means it appreciates at an incredible rate and basically never has a down year. Every person on the planet would become a millionaire if they could pull off that scam...but we only reserve access to that scam for the uber wealthy. It sucks and makes me never want to pay a penny to MLB or MLB teams for anything they might make money from.
  17. Minny505
    It's not about WS championships. The randomness of one of the teams that seems to make it to the WS every season for the last ten years should have learned you that by now. But look at their combined division championships or cumulative regular season wins between them. And the gap between the opening day odds of the White Sox being a good team vs the Mets is getting bigger, not smaller. The Luxury Tax had worked for a long time, but the teams at the top have so much money it really makes no difference to them.
  18. Minny505
    He is on pace for as many throwing errors in 2022 as from 2019-2021 combined. Eye test here certainly, but he has seemed to bounce, or just straight miss, throws to 1B on the regular. Extreme plunge is an exaggeration, but plunge is not. He went from being the most valuable defensive player in the AL by most metrics to a slight liability vs the average defensive SS, and most of it is due to his throwing. Admittedly it could just be noise, but it is worth monitoring as he approaches his 30s.
  19. Minny505
    That definitely clarifies what RpR was trying to say. If that is the word he meant to use.
  20. Minny505
    Questioning the drop off is not bias. It's objectivity. That said, the drop off is likely 3-ish WAR and Correa is a much more valuable player to the team, even at the cost. Palacios is a serviceable bench player, nothing more...not at this point. But nearly every SS moves off the position in their early-to-mid thirties. The extreme plunge with which Correa is going thru right now is troubling, particularly for his defensive calling card: an incredible arm. He's been throwing the ball all over this year. Hopefully it's just a one-season blip, but arm issues for a SS leading up to free agency can be brutal on their earnings. Look at what happened to Trevor Story. He likely got about 40% less in FA than expected just a year earlier due to a balky arm. And in this case, the potential revelation of him playing thru an arm injury does not make the outlook better for him. My point is that, unless something changes, I suspect Correa will not exercise his opt-out. He's still a solid SS, one I want on my team, but he has played closer to the level of a $150mil SS, not a $280mil SS. I can't imagine him settling for that after his last offseason. BTW - What is a sourteneur? I've never heard that term.
  21. Minny505
    I actually think this is likely. I say that because Carlos wants a big payday and really only gets one shot at it. His sights were allegedly on him getting $300mil+ this past offseason, but never got that kind of offer. He may be lucky to get a $200mil offer with the way he has played, particularly on defense, which could scare teams from that big, long contract if he has to be moved to 3B in 2025. Though $200mil is certainly still in play at 29 should he have a bounceback 2023.
  22. Minny505
    I don't have any first hand medical experience, but I am married to one with nearly two decades of practitioner experience. It is not unusual for medical practitioners, once inside, to find issues that were not apparent thru any imaging. Imaging is very good, but not perfect. Now, the wrist, from what I understand, is actually one area where imaging clarity is highest, but even there, it is not perfect. It really sounds like something is still causing problems and it is likely fixable, perhaps a bone is not twisting correctly in a joint with certain movements, causing rubbing with another bone, something like that. It may be undetectable unless clearly imaged at the exact moment in his swing that he feels it, which is impossible with even the most advanced tech available that I know of. If it does not improve, Kirilloff really has nothing to lose by having exploratory surgery. His career is over unless it can be "permanently" improved.
  23. Minny505
    I'm sorry Seth. I know you know and love the guys the Twins traded away, but objectively they likely gave away: 1 serviceable MLB regular who has an 8-10 year career with 10-12 WAR. 2-3 decent role players that last 5 years or less in the majors. And the rest will never even make it, or get a cup of coffee at best. None will be stars. It's just the way prospects work. That is why, other than the cream of the crop, it's best to flip them once they raise their value. Most of those guys will never be worth more than they are right now. It was masterful. And who knows. Maybe one of those guys turns into the jackpot winning Powerball ticket. That's a chance well worth taking.
  24. Minny505
    I distrust people who use the phrase, "trust me", but that doesn't mean you're not wrong. The Twins would have had to start their offer with Miranda to match...and I'm already out. You could argue he is already the best hitter on the team.
  25. Minny505
    Yeah, the concerns by casual fans (Twins & Orioles) who most strongly judge on ERA, have been quite verbal about how he is just hot and going to regress to his career numbers before long. It's amazing having data like this to prove the performance is pretty real, even if the ERA might be a little lower than the performance would indicate. SSS often makes ERA so volatile (see Theilbar, Caleb), which is why it is not a great tool for performance. This dude is a stud. Arguably a Top 15 reliever in MLB. As long as he stays healthy, he will likely maintain that status.
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