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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    I have heard many MLB analysts on podcasts playing the offseason contract game and the majority expect Correa to sign for less than $300mil. I agree. Whether it's the Twins or another team, I would guess 9/$288ish, with an opt out after years 2 and 4, gets it done. I know if was a strange offseason, but coming off his career year, Correa essentially got a 1 year contract, which means an overpay for the market, at $35mil. That is why most estimates on a long term deal are less than $35 AAV.
  2. Minny505
    I agree on CF and RF, but the bar for LF defense is so low that pretty much anyone who can competently play CF/RF looks good in LF. LF is the place where teams rotate their 9th guy for the day who is doesn't have a defensive home and is healthy and rested. Even Nick Gordon was a positive out in LF, despite being competent at best everywhere else he played. Arraez played a lot of innings there in the past. Going back over the last decade you will see the butchers that the Twins have had play LF and that is not at all unique to the Twins. Even Yordon Alvarez is a competent LFer. The bar is very low in that specific position.
  3. Minny505
    They could use more immediate help in the rotation. It's top heavy. Blaze is a little much, especially with his last few starts of 2022. On top of that, Brewers are always looking for MLB ready guys. I'd offer Varland or Winder, plus Moran or Sands. Regardless, I just can't picture them trading their best hitter. That would be counting on Yelich and 3 rookies for their OF depth chart, one of which isn't even on the 40 man. I find that unlikely if they are still trying to contend, which they should.
  4. Minny505
    Sure. Put Renfroe in LF where he is likely an above-average defender. I'm pretty sure that's permitted by the rules.
  5. Minny505
    Agreed completely. Sano pretty much nailed the mid-point on the distribution of outcomes for someone of his prospect pedigree at roughly 2 WAR per 600 PAs. That means he was essentially an average-ish MLBer during his tenure. To call him a bust indicated a misunderstanding of the potential for prospects.
  6. Minny505
    Seems like a decent one-year-contract bullpen arm.
  7. Minny505
    Trade for Jorge Mateo, currently on the Baltimore Orioles. A 27 yr old with elite speed, elite SS defense, and a potentially trending bat as he had a 94 wRC+, with improved Statcast numbers to corroborate the story, in the second half of 2022, which was his first full season in the majors. With Gunnar Henderson, a consensus Top 20 MLB prospect who is a plus defensive SS himself, looking every bit the part of STUD in his month+ callup, I've heard speculation that Mateo is on the market. If so, he would be a perfect pickup for the base-clogging and IF defensively challenged Twins.
  8. Minny505
    Why do you think this? A 30 yr old (going to be 31 in 2023 season) RHB COF with a 118 wRC+ over the last 2 seasons, and who is an average defender in RF, would be a welcome addition to any lineup, especially the Twins.
  9. Minny505
    Renfroe may be able to be acquired by trade, but he's not getting non-tendered. He was the best hitter on their team for anyone with more than 68 PAs.
  10. Minny505
    Yup. This has no impact on the decision to bring in a RHB COF. For the contract, it's a great signing as it ensures they have someone in case the market for those outfielders gets heated.
  11. Minny505
    I am surprised by the lack of interest, around all MLB, in not training relievers for 2 inning stints. It's well understood that every RP used in a game is raising the risk factor as all it takes is one of those guys to "not have it" that day for the perfect plan to go south. 2 inning stints reduces this risk factor significantly. My ideal modern bullpen of 8 RP would be 4 RPs that train to pitch 2 innings per appearance and 4 RPs trained to pitch 1 inning per appearance. I admit that may not work in practice, but it sounds perfect to me in theory.
  12. Minny505
    I love the idea, and this is one instance where the fans would likely be on the side of ownership, but the MLBPA would never agree to it unless it meant more money for the players...which it should, but the owners history of sharing new revenues with the players is poor at best. It could happen if the owners incentivized the players properly. But the ratings would likely not be that good if the tourney competed with the WS tourney. Maybe in September? But then it would have to be minor leaguers, which could happen since the minors playoffs are done by mid-September. Have the 40 man roster that is not called up, along with all the other top players throughout the system, compete? But that defeats the purpose. Awesome idea, but really hard to see how it works.?
  13. Minny505
    Is there a double play opportunities converted rate out there? Anyone know? Maybe something similar? Otherwise this seems more dependent on the pitcher than it does the fielders.
  14. Minny505
    I'm happy to see the sanity here. You are going to have to climb much farther up the ladder and get the ear of Grandpa Manfred and Uncle Clark in order to get the Twins to pitch SPs deeper into games.
  15. Minny505
    I completely agree. It's more speculation from sources inside the industry that I read or heard, not the front office themselves. The way I have heard about and read that the Royals may non-tender Mondesi if they cannot trade him, or that the Twins may non-tender Urshela if they cannot trade him. If the Brewers can add quality depth though, I could see them pulling the trigger with three other 1/2 level SPs in their rotation outside of Woodruff.
  16. Minny505
    I expect Arraez to be the favorite for UT. Ohtani will win DH. At SS, I see it as a coin flip between Bogaerts and Correa...with Bogaerts calling tails on that flip. Would be fun to have them both win.
  17. Minny505
    I suspect Varland in 2023, but SWR for career. If it is SWR and Blaze in 2023 as 1/2 from that list, the probably means the Twins had a good season as those two forced the issue by dominating AAA and carrying it over to The Show.
  18. Minny505
    Being that the Brewers are constantly churning, they usually trade for major league ready guys. Or at least Sterns did. It depends on their approach. If they stick with churn, they might want a bat and Larnach could be a good fit for the COF/DH rotation there. And they could use more SP depth, so maybe Varland and Winder as well, becoming the 5th and 6th starters. The simulator considers that offer a generous overpay by the Twins, but that depends on whether the Crew wants to continue the churn.
  19. Minny505
    It's for two seasons, not one. Hence a semi-rich package of prospects.
  20. Minny505
    It's money. A quick glance at online chatter makes it sound like Woodruff is likely to be dealt this offseason. Could be nothing, but it's worth having some as we dream on it.
  21. Minny505
    We will have to agree to disagree on Sale. I literally never look at ERA because that is about the team's performance when that pitcher is on the mound, not how well the pitcher pitched. His K%, BB%, K/BB, HR%, GB%, FIP, xFIP, dERA, DRA, SIERA, and Statcast metrics, all still look elite. As for his IP/GS...that entirely has to do with him ramping up after injury, then getting injured again, but in fluke ways. None of it is arm issues. The reference you are making to arm issues is people speculating for a decade that his arm would break, but him routinely pitching 200 innings a season. UCL surgery comes for almost all pitchers at some point, even the workhorse that is Justin Verlander. His upside is Carlos Rodon. Don't kid yourself. But I do agree on Rodon. I'd rather just sign him as well. Sale would be a close second choice though, if he could be signed on a one year deal the way Rodon was in 2022. The falloff from there, for the contract risk/reward that would likely need to be signed, will probably not end up being worth it.
  22. Minny505
    I am actually shocked at the lack of interest in Chris Sale on this board. He hasn't been mentioned once. Sure, he has only thrown 48 innings the last couple seasons combined, but they were still elite, true-ace level innings. Calling Sale injury prone is a misnomer. All his time missed was due to UCL surgery (common) and then three separate consecutive bone fractures (impact). Nothing in his history indicates soft-tissue concerns. On top of that, there is a fair chance he is looking for a Rodon-like make-good contract. 1/25 may get it done with him.
  23. Minny505
    Of the big 4, he certainly seems to be the best fit from a contract and skill set perspective. I'd still rather trade for a Mateo or IKF type, but this kind of signing might still allow for a game 1 SP.
  24. Minny505
    Arraez's metrics are rather amazing at 1B. Of the three Twins players, he likely has the highest odds of emerging the victor, particularly if voters pro-rate a bit to give him credit for a full season, considering the circumstance in which he became the team's 1B.
  25. Minny505
    I'd be far more excited about a trade for IKF, Jorge Mateo, or some other inexpensive option that can be relied on as a solid contributor if & when Lewis or another prospect steps up. As much as we want that to be 2023, it may not realistically happen and we need someone more reliable in case that is how it goes down.
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