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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    Is the point of this piece that Mauer will not be inducted on the first ballot? That's probably correct. But he's pretty much a shoe-in. I don't think there is any concern about Mauer being a part of the induction ceremony in the next five years.
  2. Minny505
    I agree
  3. Minny505
    I guess I don't understand the exercise then🤷‍♂️
  4. Minny505
    MJ Melendez needs a spot on this team. The dude is a masher. I'll take him at DH over Perez. I'd consider him a push in RF or C, despite the rough . Yet, he isn't mentioned anywhere. And Vaughan is a better choice at 1B. Naylor is worse than Kepler vs LHP. That's an impressive feat.
  5. Minny505
    Engaging in a little "scouting the stat line", his peripherals didn't really change from pre-2021 to 2022...except one. His GB% went up about 10 percentage points, a 30-ish% increase. That's impressive! It led to both a lower BABIP and HR rate. Was it luck? If he can maintain stay close to a K/IP and a BABIP around 44%, he should be able to carve out a decent MLB career as a SP.
  6. Minny505
    It's a little telling how much Twins fans overvalue their own prospects, the ones they are familiar with, over the prospects that are new to the system, when none of the guys ranked 4-7 on this list are likely getting any Top 100 prospect consideration anywhere, while at number 8 we have a guy who is on 2 or 3 of those lists. Salas should probably be ranked at 4, right behind Rodriguez. I'd accept an argument that Julien and SWR should be above him due to proximity to The Show, putting him at 6th. But that's why these are fun...even if they are objectively incorrect 😜
  7. Minny505
    This is about what I would expect, with LF/RF/1B/3B being mixed and matched as some of the LHB start to have varying success against LHP. I would like to see Buxton, depending on current health, start in RF from time to time, which is a far less health hazard vs CF. That would truly maximize the wRC+ vs LHP, allowing Vazquez to DH. And, that OF alignment levels up the OF defense just that much more.
  8. Minny505
    I suspect you are accurate about what they will do, but it may not be optimal. Putting Buxton in RF means Vazquez/Jeffers can DH, which is likely a 100 basis points of OPS upgrade over any LHB you stick in RF. 200 bps over Kepler. Speaking of Kepler, I never want to see him have a PA against a LHP in a close game ever again. Due to injuries this may not be possible, but he is the last OFer on the 40 man that I want to see in the lineup against a LHP. I'd start Farmer in RF before Kepler. He is nearly Andrelton Simmons circa 2021 bad at the plate when it comes to LHP. I like Kepler. He's a fantastic strong-side platoon role player who plays very good RF defense, but that defense is not so good that he should be in the lineup vs LHP.
  9. Minny505
    It seems a forgone conclusion around here that Taylor will play CF against LHP while Buxton does the DH thing. But I wonder if there are any discussions within Twins management to have Buxton play RF against LHP, which would be a huge upgrade over Kepler, and allow another right-handed bat to take over DH. Corner OF is much less stress on the body as most plays are (statistically speaking) either towering fly balls that are relatively easy to get under or line drives and grounders that just need to be thrown back in. I doubt we see it, but it would probably be a middle ground of optimizing both Buxton's health and team performance.
  10. Minny505
    😂 And this is the conundrum of TV and radio broadcast teams across North America. That said, I think FIP+ is both contextual and predictive in that it predicts the future performance of a pitcher relative to the league. A FIP+ of 110 predicts that a pitcher will be roughly 10% better than the average pitcher. Tangent time: One stat I always wish was available readily available is something spFIP+, which was relative to only SPs, and it's counterpart, rpFIP+. For that mater 2BwRC+ for relativity on offense to to positional average. A 90 wRC+ from a catcher is roughly equivalent to a 105 wRC+ for a RF. Either a separate stat or something like the positional average in parenthesis next to the + stat. Maybe it's time to dust off the SQL skills...but I wouldn't even know where to get the data sets to begin. And FWIW, I agree on + being superior to - for FIP. It's easier to quickly comprehend for whatever reason.
  11. Minny505
    Disregarding bullpen pickups, only 5 of these 1 year contract players were expected to be decent when signed: Lynn, Schoop. Cruz, Hill, Simmons. While Cruz makes up the majority of the value, those players collectively lived up to the contracts they received. The rest were questionable signings before they even passed their physicals, and the collective results are so awful that it's time to admit that this FO doesn't know how to identify bounce-back talent. Bundy was probably the best signing of those question marks, which shows how much this strategy has backfired. And that's fine. A front office does not need to be good at everything. They just need to understand their strengths and weaknesses and lean into those strengths while avoiding their weaknesses. And THAT has been the problem. They just haven't been able to stop themselves from leaning into their weakness. But maybe that has now changed. Gallo is the only bounce-back, 1 year contract, and he is a very different type of bounce-back candidate. Every name on that questionable 1 year list had a bounce back upside of "He was fine". Gallo has All-star, Gold Glover upside. Still not of a Cruz or Simmons level of average expected. Gallo is still a bounce-back signing. But at least this one has real upside.
  12. Minny505
    I would take this even further. Leadoff sees the lowest PAs with runners in scoring position of any of the top 6-7 spots in the lineup. Because of that, hits really are of little value, while getting on base or hitting a HR is at a premium. If Gallo is somewhat back to his former self, he actually makes a great leadoff man. If he can match Arraez's OBP, but with 25-30 more HRs, he's an even better leadoff man than Arraez with his superior baserunning and lack of splits. It may not be traditional, but he could be the best answer to this question. I start the season with any of those others listed here, but I keep the door open for Gallo if he shows he is back in April.
  13. Minny505
    This will be a big season for Joe. If he can maintain or improve, he is the real deal. But with a full season of scouting reports, it will be interesting to see if hitters can adjust to the unique pitch plane. If hitters cannot adjust their swing to go the other way against the shift, which they see against many pitchers, I find it hard to believe they will be able to adjust their swing to hit one individual pitcher they only see a couple ABs a season.
  14. Minny505
    I'd add Gordon to that list as well. And even if everyone on the roster now is there and healthy all season, I think Larnach still gets 500+ PAs.
  15. Minny505
    I don't disagree, but if Gallo is a 2 WAR player, he is far from a bust. That's my dispute. And if Larnach or Wallner are pressing at mid-season to play daily, and Gallo is on track for that 2 WAR season, he can be traded for prospects. FWIW, not a chance in hell I sign Gallo unless a trade for Kepler is lined up or done...but in a vacuum, the signing is perfectly reasonable.
  16. Minny505
    I don't think Correa has another GG season in him, but the rest is fair and whould take a solid season from each of these players, but is attainable.🤞
  17. Minny505
    I'd probably swap Miller and Salas, but in agreement otherwise.
  18. Minny505
    This is awesome and goes to show that drafting and international signings are not the only way to acquire prospects while staying relatively competitive. I am still constantly surprised by how undervalued Salas is in the Twins community. He is a Top 100 prospect in all of MLB affliliated baseball, according to Baseball America and Fangraphs...arguably the two most respected prospect ranking organizations in the business. I get that if he can't stick at SS he falls out of the Top 150, but if he can stick he moves into the Top 50. Seems like a serious case of non-objective overvaluing of the prospects that are familiar/ours over the prospects that are unfamiliar/theirs.
  19. Minny505
    You're ready to declare the Gallo signing a bust and a huge overpay before he even takes to the field? Juevos man. Juevos.
  20. Minny505
    I haven't done a lot of digging, but Mike Petriello/Statcast, Eno Sarris, Ben Clemons (or someone at Fangraphs), and Aaron Gleeman, have all written or listed how Kepler will be one of the least impacted by the upcoming shift limitations. Those are the who's who of baseball analysis, especially Petriello and Sarris. The shift is not his issue, poor quality of contact is. A flat swing will do that. It means your margin for error with timing has to be near perfect as your bat spends almost no time in the center of the flight path of the pitch, often resulting in pop ups and ground balls if you are near, but not perfectly, on time.
  21. Minny505
    This sums up the impetus for trading him, or really any one of Larnach, Gordon, or Kepler...whichever you think you get the best value for in shopping them all (throw Wallner in there if you want, I just don't think he will bring back any value at all)*. Keeping them all means we essentially have 2 WAR players at the corner OF spots at all times. Trading any one of them and getting a RH COF/1B means potentially having a 3 WAR corner OF position if platooned correctly. Trading any one of those guys has the real potential for addition by subtraction. *And yes, I honestly don't care which one of those four is traded, as long as they are replaced on the roster by a lefty mashing COF/1B
  22. Minny505
    I kind of agree with this. I would move him to 6th, but that's just picking nits. Future value being equal, I tend to rank the non-pitcher and proximity to the majors higher. That drops Raya and Prielipp down to 7 & 8. Regardless, while the system is lacking high end prospects, it is deeply stocked with 50-55 FV players.
  23. Minny505
    I'm rather surprised by Jose Salas not making the top 20. On national lists, Salas is more highly regarded than Austin Martin.
  24. Minny505
    That's probably right. Fans generally have unrealistic expectations of draft picks. Teams like the Astros, Dodgers, and Rays are the long tail of prospect outcomes in a good way, while the Royals, Tigers, and Reds are at on the wrong long tail. Twins are pretty much smack-dab in the middle of the bell curve. Sure, we'd all like better outcomes, but it's fantasy to call a front office a failure for hitting the league average on draft picks.
  25. Minny505
    Great comparison. The discussion about Arraez not being able to play 2B kind of confuses me. While I agree he's not good, but neither is Polanco. Trading Polanco and having Arraez shift over to the keystone would likely be a lateral move on defense. While I would never trade Arraez for Lopez straight up (hypothetical), I would entertain a 1-for-1 swap with Polanco instead. Both are bat-first infielders and Arraez probably has the better bat going forward.
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