Harrison Smith

We have seen one month of Twins baseball, and the team sits at 17-12 (.586) which leads the struggling AL Central by 3.5 games. Though we have seen lots of downs, the positives and flashes of brilliance have far more outweighed the bad. Before they start a six game road trip with two division rivals, let’s take a look at the impressive first month of April. The Good Starting Pitching The Minnesota Twins, more or less, aren’t known for their pitching. It seems like the Twins never have more than three quality starting pitchers, and when they do, injuries happen. After trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, bringing in Tyler Mahle at the deadline last year, and having an influx of pitching talent at the AAA level, the Twins rotation looks to be in a good shape. Pablo Lopez has proved that he can be an ace. He was brilliant in his first four starts, posting a 1.73 ERA in 26 innings. His last two starts have been rough, but you could blame it on the cold weather. Overall, this is where I expect Lopez to be (if you take away one or two bad starts), and he has been very impressive overall. Joe Ryan has been pitching as expected this year, very well. The Twins are 5-0 when he pitches and the length of his outings have been vital in keeping the bullpen well rested. Sonny Gray, likely the most surprising pitcher this year, has been lights out, boasting an MLB leading 0.77 ERA in six starts. Of course, we shouldn’t expect this to keep going, but it has been nice to see him succeed. Lastly, Bailey Ober has exceeded my limits. Although he’s only pitched in two starts, he has came up in big situations and been better than replacement level. With the Maeda and Mahle injury problems, you should expect to see him around for awhile. Joey Gallo The big slugger came to Minnesota hoping to re-light a flame that had gone out in New York, and so far, it is safe to say that it has been working. Gallo has 7 HRs in 53 ABs and boasts an OPS over 1.000. His OPS+ is 196, which means he is nearly twice as productive than the average MLB hitter this year. His appearance in the lineup has been a big boost for the Twins this year, but his flexibility in the field has been equally appreciated. Gallo has played mostly first base this year, occasionally playing in the outfield. Though this pace seems unsustainable, it is nice to see the once All Star slugger back in his prime form. Byron Buxton For some people, it's hard to be impressed by a guy who hasn’t played any defense when they are known for their great fielding, but Buxton has a special case. We all know about his ongoing injury issues, but Buxton has played in 26 of 29 games. Now obviously you don’t get his glove in those games, but what you do get is a slugger who has an .881 OPS. Buxton has been a staple in the Twins lineup and playing nearly 90% of the teams game certainly helps big time. While it sucks that he is unable to play in the field, his defensive replacement is gold glover Michael A Taylor, who doesn't suck. The Bad Mahle and Maeda At the beginning of the season, both former front of the line starters were coming off injuries. While Mahle has been very good in his four starts, he requires at least a month of missed time with his elbow injury. Not only does this suck, but it is scary because you do not want to see this type of injury linger like the one that shut him down at the end of the 2022 season. Similarly to Mahle, Maeda had been serviceable in his first four starts, posting a 4.15 ERA, before struggling with stamina issues and blowing up, allowing 10 ER against the Yankees. Maeda is currently on the 15-day IL and his future looks cloudy. Have we seen the last Twins start for Maeda? Carlos Correa It pains me to write this, but Correa has been struggling heavily at the plate. He has been far below average and it doesn’t seem to be improving, however, this doesn’t concern me too much. Correa is a top 3 shortstop for a reason, and his struggles just screams “slow start.” Last year, Correa got off to a bad start before returning to his all star form for the rest of the season and there is no evidence that this year is any different. Correa will return to his form sooner or later, but this far, he has been, well, bad. Nick Gordon Nick Gordon became a fan favorite last year after having a very good and clutch fall, however, this year, he has been terrible. He is hitting .127 with an OPS just over .300. Not ideal. Though his defensive flexibility is nice, it is not worth putting him in the lineup as an offensive liability. What makes this situation bad is that Gordon is out of options, meaning he is stuck on the big league roster until the Twins trade or DFA him. Alcala and Moran I often categorize these two Twins bullpen arms together as they have had big glimpses of success in the past, but are struggling to capitalize on that success this year. Moran had a great 2022 with the Twins, posting a 2.21 ERA in 31 appearances, but for whatever reason, hasn’t been able to translate that to 2023. Being a lefty, Moran is a key part of the Twins bullpen and the Twins need him to go back to 2022 form. Alcala on the other hand, has struggled this year. Twins fans have high hopes for him, since he was so good in 2020-2022 before getting shut down due to injury. It is not too late for these two guys to turn it around, but relievers in the MLB have a very short leash. The Unknown Quick-fire! Max Kepler was slumping before his early season IL stint, but since coming back, Max has been great. It will be interesting to see which version of Max we will see in the future. Trevor Larnach has been amazing this year… when he gets fastballs to hit. If Larnach wants to be an above average hitter, he needs to learn how to hit off-speed and breaking balls better. Jose Miranda has been an interesting case. He got off to a slow start, but looks to be heating up recently. And his defense has been… fine? Griffin Jax looks to be a staple in the bullpen, but he has had some shaky outings. He needs to be much more stable in order to be trusted more in the 6th–8th inning. As we head into May, what are your biggest praises and concerns of the Twins? Thanks for reading!

Great Article! Glad you could find a use for the pictures.

I think it's completely immature and unrealistic to "prepare for October." Buxton and Correa had some injuries before the Twins August collapse. We were fine. Kirilloff wasn't contributing in any way before August, and we were fine. People are forgetting we were a top team in the league before our injury problems. For Correa, teams did not like his future (6-10 years). Correa hasn't had any issues with his ankle since the initial surgey in the minors. Just because teams denied him in FA this year, doesn't mean a magic switch will be flipped and Correa will start becoming injury prone this season, he's fine. Buxton can play 100-120 games, especially with Taylor likely relieving him of CF duties more often than not. We also have a new world class trainer which may help the guys stay healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if stars do re-align, and I think its crazy to "prepare for October" this early. Nonetheless, thank you for the feedback and support!

If you remember Ryan's two starts on the west coast, once in LA and once in SD, he didn't do very hot. He gave up 10 runs in SD and didn't do much better in LA. If you take away those two starts, he has an ERA under 3, so I do think it is possible.

Maeda is a weird one for me. Obviously I would prioritize his health before any preformence. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a decent 4-5 guy at the least. I am not, however, expecting him to return to his 2020 form, although it wouldn't completely shock me. We have seen people like Justin Verlander come back even stronger from Tommy John, so I wouldn't rule him out to be a top of the rotation guy. So, expectations? 1. Stay healthy. Pitch 150 innings 2. Have an ERA under 4.20 I think that's all you can hope for from a player returning from that devestating injury. Thanks for your feedback!

Yeah, I just don't think health is a given with him. If he remains healthy, then certainly 170+.

I think Sonny Gray is pretty proven. If I had to make goals for him, it would be to have an ERA under 3.60 and to stay healthy.

I wouldn't put it past him. I think the Gold Glove award as a whole is a bit iffy, as we saw some illegitimate finalists last year. All I am saying is I hope for him to continue his stellar defense, especially without an option like Royce to back him up the first half of the year.

It is pretty funny! His OPS should still be high, meaning he will hit many extra base hits. I am hoping to see a small rise in the average department since the shift is banned though, which ultimately means more singles. Thanks for the support!

Thank you for the feedback! I agree with you on Kirilloff, but I think there is still a lot of potential there with him, even if he isn't to return right away.

The Minnesota Twins in 2022 saw a lot of inconsistency in the pitching staff. First, pitching coach, Wes Johnson, left half-way through the season, then injuries started to expose the depth of the system. Now in 2023, the Twins have Mahle and Maeda back in the rotation, they added Pablo Lopez to the staff, and people like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have much more experience. The bullpen also looks promising with the return of Alcalà and the breakout of Duran and Jax last season. If this staff can stay healthy, they can easily be top 10 in the MLB, but how far will they go? Rotation Joe Ryan After being acquired in the Nelson Cruz trade from the Rays, Joe Ryan dazzled in AAA and impressed after his September call up. Ryan had a strong start to 2022 before getting COVID-19 and turning into average the rest of the season. If Ryan can keep up his early season success, he has the potential to be in the Cy Young debate. Goals: Have an ERA under 3.00 and throw 170 innings. Prove that you can be a front of the rotation starter. Pablo Lopez Lopez was called up in 2018 with the Miami Marlins and struggled until the 2020 season when he pitched 11 games and had a 3.61 ERA. In 2021, he threw 102.2 innings and had a 3.07 ERA in his breakout year. Though he has struggled with injury problems in the years prior, he had his healthiest year in 2022 and threw 180 innings. However, Lopez steadily regressed each month in 2022, which is a big concern. Now in 2023, Lopez has a lot to prove, since he is playing for a real contender and potentially competing for the #1 rotation spot. Goals: Throw another 180 innings (and stay healthy). Get your changeup back to 2020-2021 form. Have an ERA under 3.60 and be that guy who goes deep into games regardless of success. Finally, stay consistent all of the way through 2023 and do not start to tail off. Bailey Ober Ober made his debut in 2021 and (I’d say) impressed if you consider the situation. The 6-11 RHP continued his solid run in 2022 before running into injury problems. Ober will likely slot in at the sixth starter and will get plenty of opportunities. If Ober can stay healthy, he can be a solid replacement to either Gray, Mahle, or Maeda in 2024. Goals: Pitch 125 innings and keep an ERA under 4.00. Keep your BB% under 6% and FIP under 3.50. Tyler Mahle Mahle is a very interesting pitcher to look at statistically. Don’t be fooled by his career 4.35 ERA. Mahle was formerly with the Reds, who have one of the most hitter friendly ballparks. Mahle’s ERA in Great American Ballpark is 5.00 in nearly 300 innings. In over 300 innings on the road, his ERA 3.76. Unfortunately, last season did not go how the Twins planned, as he only made 4 starts with them before an injury shut him down the rest of the year. If Mahle can rebound from his injuries, his ERA will look much closer to 3.70 than the 4.35 mark we have seen previously. Goals: Throw 140 innings and finish with an ERA under 3.50. Keep your WHIP below 1.200. Maintain your fastball velocity all the way through the year. Bullpen Griffin Jax If you look at Griffin Jax’s Baseball Savant page, you’ll see a lot of red. After Jax officially switched to the bullpen this year, we saw his average fastball rise almost 4 (!) mph. On Jax’s Instagram this winter, we saw him reach 100 mph. We can only hope that he keeps making these jumps. Last year, Jax had a 3.36 ERA and boasted a SO/9 over 9. Jax has tons of upside and if he continues to improve, he can certainly be a top bullpen arm in the American League. Goals: Try and make your fastball be more effective. Keep your ERA under 3.50 and your FIP under 3.20. Jhoan Duran Duran had the best Twins reliever season since Joe Nathan in 2006. The best part is that Duran was a rookie, and he was doing this against the opposing teams best hitters. Duran was acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade from Arizona and so far, Duran is proving that he is worth it. He'll be challenged this year, as he likely won't be the designated closer, but will pitch when the opposing team's hitters come up in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. He has the chance to be the best reliever in all of baseball in 2023. Goals: Prove that the 2022 season wasn’t a fluke. Stay healthy and consistent. Jorge Alcalà Similarly to Jax, Alcalà’s Baseball Savant page is mostly red. He’s in the 96th percentile for fastball velocity. Fans waited for his return in 2022, but injury kept holding it off until it was too late. Alcalà pitched well in 2022, appearing in almost 60 innings and having an ERA of 3.92. All in all, his floor is very high, but he must stay healthy. Goals: Stay healthy! Have an ERA under 4.00 and throw 55 innings. Earn a meaningful spot in the big league bullpen. I may be overly-optimistic, but I think that the Twins pitching staff has the potential to be in the top third of the league. It's inevitable, injuries will happen, but they have depth, and if you manage them well, they'll be fine. Don't be surprised if the pitching staff goes under the radar and shocks the rest of the world this year.

The 2022 Minnesota Twins looked like they were destined for success. They had great chemistry and were winning ballgames, they looked closer to their 2019 form than the disappointing 2021 form we had seen the year prior. However, injuries started to take place and the ballclub started to lose games. As disappointing as this was, we got to see a bunch of new prospects. Promising flashes from players like Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon had us itching for 2023. Now that opening day is less than 60 days away, here are some realistic player goals for some Twins Hitters. Byron Buxton Buxton’s career has always been riddled with health questions. He has played in over 100 games once, and that was back in 2018 when he played 140 games. The results were favorable as he won the Gold Glove and stole 28 bases. Last year we saw the best year of Buxton’s career, as he was named an AL All-Star, had a 138 OPS+, and actually gained some national recognition. The problem? He played in 92 games. If Buxton stays healthy, he is a consensus top-10 player and a huge part of the Twins' success. Goals: Show you can stay healthy and play in 120 games, 80 of them in CF. Maintain an OPS of over .800 and hit 30 home runs. Carlos Correa The Twins signed Correa to essentially a one-year contract last offseason, and expectations were set high. Correa struggled in the first two months, posting a .633 OPS. Was it the cold? The new home and clubhouse? Just a random bad stretch? Who knows, but he quickly recovered and played like a high-level All-Star for the rest of the season. Now that Correa is here long term, he should be one of the ultimate factors to the Twins success not only this year but in the next five. Goals: Prove that you are worth over 30 million. Finish top 10 in MVP voting and be a finalist for Gold Glove. Help develop and mentor young guys like; Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien. Jose Miranda Although he was never a top-of-the-line prospect, Miranda had a lot of excitement last year after his breakout 2021 season. Miranda was called up in May and, well, let’s just say he struggled. He posted a .532 OPS and eventually got sent back down to AAA. When he got another shot in June, he didn’t put it to waste. Miranda impressed in June, then impressed even more in July, and remained a steady anchor for the Twins lineup for the rest of the year. Miranda showed very promising flashes in 2022 and if he continues to develop, he should be a core part of this franchise for years to come. Goals: Show that you can stay at the hot corner. Prove yourself as a 4-5 hitter in the lineup and post a .780 OPS. Alex Kirilloff The former first-round pick had a lot of questions heading into the 2022 season. Will he stay healthy? The ultimate answer was no. Kirilloff has had constant injury issues, specifically ones with his wrist. If AK can stay healthy, he can cement himself as a key piece into the unproven Twins outfield. Goals: Prove that your wrist won’t be an issue in the future. Play in 100 games this year and prove that you have your power back by hitting 15 home runs. Post an OPS of over .780 and show that you belong in the future of this team. Joey Gallo Joey Gallo was a star in Arlington, and he didn’t start to decline until his trade to New York. Some blame it on the pressure of a big market team. If this is true, Gallo could have a huge comeback season. So far, it seems like Gallo is enjoying Minnesota. If he can control his strikeouts and utilize the shift ban, he can be put back on the map for MLB stars. Goals: Be the person you were in Texas. Be flexible on defense as you may see some 1B. Maintain a .200 average, have an OPS+ of over 100, and hit 30 Home Runs. Nick Gordon Gordon was almost forgotten about as a prospect as some major injuries derailed him from stardom. Once a top prospect, he had a ton of upside, especially with his speed. Gordon got a ton of opportunities all over the field and proved himself clutch late in the season. Now with a guaranteed shot in the big leagues, Gordon finds himself with an opportunity to become a full-time big league player. Goals: Keep your OPS+ above league average and steal 10 bases. Prove to be more level at the plate: raise your BB% and try to minimize your strikeouts. Royce Lewis Lewis was the first overall pick for the Minnesota Twins back in 2017. Lewis thrived until his 2019 season when he had his first down year. He rebounded winning AFL MVP in late 2019. Due to the canceled 2020 MiLB season and an ACL tear in 2021, Lewis had to be sidelined for two years. Finally getting back on the field in 2022, Lewis Dazzled in AAA and got a call-up. He rocketed past his expectations and looked like that first overall pick that we had seen prior. After suffering his second ACL tear in two years, Lewis is set to come back sometime in the mid-summer and has a chance to prove himself as a big-league player. Goals: Stay healthy through the 2023 season. Show that your 2022 stint wasn’t a fluke. Have an OPS+ over league average and a positive OAA. Show that you still have your speed and steal at least five bases. These goals may be a bit aggressive, but I feel like these players have a lot to prove in 2023. Correa said he wanted to build a dynasty in Minnesota, and these players get to decide if that comes true this season. This is my first blog post with Twins Daily, so please give some feedback! Keep your eyes peeled for 2023 Pitcher Goals. Thank you!

Your Noah Miller is my Connor Prielipp. I am super high on the guy, despite not seeing much. He has so much upside. Noah Miller on the other hand, I struggle to get excited about. Let's hope both prospects pan out!

I really like Salas, he's interesting to me. I could see him slot into top 5 by the end of the year, however I could also see him outside of the top 12-15. Time is on his side as he is still 19, but I'm eager to see this guy!

I personally don't see Balazovic coming up this early in 2023. I think for that to happen, he would have to play very well, which is a stretch in itself, or there would have to be signifigant starting rotation injuries. I have around ten guys that could be in the rotation before Balazovic, so I just don't see him being called up due to injury.