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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    I beg to differ. Prior to signing Correa, Arraez was the top projected player in WAR on the Twins, and the AL batting champ, for the 2022 season by just about every system on the internet. Setting aside personal bias and using the models, that are accurate to ridiculous degrees, is usually the safe bet. I'm glad the models were right. His season was probably the most fun to watch on a nightly basis.
  2. Minny505
    Eno Sarris of The Athletic has published more research and data on this very topic than any other data analyst in the public sphere. His summary is that the RPs that allow the fewest runs have the best stuff. There is a very direct and strong correlation between these metrics, while command has near zero correlation. For SPs, stuff still has a stronger correlation with preventing runs than command, but command is still statistically significant. So while it may feel like command is WAY more important to many fans, it just simply is not as important at all. The results which is unfeeling, factual data, do not agree. Also, Megill has okay stuff, but nothing to get excited about. Pagan has legitimately great stuff and his results are a very incredible outlier in Eno's model. It happens. No predictive model will be perfect 100% of the time. Pagan's real problem is not that he has poor command per se, but rather the problem is that when he does miss, he misses middle-middle with a cement mixer at an almost unbelievable rate...as if he has a giant open bet with a ruthless bookie, on himself to giving up a homerun in that appearance.
  3. Minny505
    I can't believe it took until the 31st post to even mention Rodon. I am obviously in the minority, but I would so much tell Correa to start packing and focus on Rodon. We need top end pitching more than we need a top end SS...and there is only one top end FA SP, while there are at least 4 top end FA SSs available. As Dallas loves to say, "Gimme the lefty!"
  4. Minny505
    I like the reasoning, but I still disagree with your projected outcome. If they release him, they will likely sign a part-time RHB COF to replace him that will cost $6mil-$8mil. Why spend that when you can have Garlick for $1mil or so? If the FO plans on signing a more well-rounded, everyday RHB COF/DH type bat, then Garlick is gone. But if they are only looking for a platoon RHB COF, they don't get much better than Garlick and he will be MUCH cheaper than anyone they can acquire from outside the org.
  5. Minny505
    In addition to Caleb Hamilton, which many have previously mentioned, I can say with 100% confidence that Billy Hamilton won't be back on a MLB contract. And I would put the odds on Aaron Sanchez, who I have also not seen mentioned, being DFA'd at a much higher probability than Megill, who himself is probably more likely to be DFA'd than Coulumbe. I would be shocked if Garlick was DFA'd. He fills a crucial need for the Twins lineup due to the fact that he mashes LHP to a point that he was among the league leaders in OPS vs LHP while he was playing healthy. Subtracting Hamilton, Hamilton, & Sanchez from the 40, and adding Garlick to it, leaves 5 spots to to fill with acquisitions this offseason, enough to grab a big game SP, a solid RP, a stopgap SS, and a backup C, with one spot left for a wild card.
  6. Minny505
    This is an epic rant that I laughed at the whole way thru. And it wouldn't be funny if you were wrong.
  7. Minny505
    I would sign and trade him. I would put him on the proverbial, obviously available, trade block. Shop him around and take the best value for him. At $10 for one year, he can bring in a decent player or prospect that is more valuable to the team than he is. Urshela is good, solid player. Kepler-esque in that you need good, solid 2-3 win players to supplement a good core. It's crucial. The problem is that two of the members of the core (Miranda & Arraez) play the same position, with reinforcements coming and Gordon to fill in in a pinch. Unless he can play OF, C, SS, or pitch, he is redundant on the roster. Use that surplus value to your advantage and flip him.
  8. Minny505
    Yes, I absolutely do not want to cut Thielber. He's the second best reliever the team has! I don't want to compound a weak bullpen by removing one of the strong members in it.
  9. Minny505
    Yes, but not by as much as most people seem to believe. He is marginally better. Not Arenado better. Miranda, due to his hit tool, has far more total value and is a perfectly serviceable, roughly league average, defensive 3B. With more consistent playing time at the position, he might grade out as Urshela's equal.
  10. Minny505
    Agreed. He does probably get $250mil though over 8 years, or something like that. I doubt his total pay starts with a 3 though.
  11. Minny505
    If anyone else lives in the Phoenix area, East Valley specifically, and wants to meet up for a Glendale Desert Dogs game or two at Scottsdale, Salt River, or Sloan Stadiums, please message me. I try to get to a few games every year and love to do it with fellow Twins fans.
  12. Minny505
    I suspect the answer is none of them as one of the six SP (five under contract plus Rodon) will get injured in spring training and need a month or two for recovery. Then another one goes down in week two. Winder is already slotted in for a few starts by the fourth turn thru the rotation and Ober becomes a vital rotation cog at that point.
  13. Minny505
    It is a silver lining that we get to see Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, and their 72 combined MLB starts, pitch this week. I feel like an earlier era of the Twins would have seen the equivalency of Archer, Bundy, Aaron Sanchez, and Derrick Rodriguez out there in this situation.
  14. Minny505
    It was interesting that those were the primary lowlights in the summary. A "slumping" rookie having "only" a 110 OPS+ since August 1? That's the lowlight on a team clicking on all cylinders, not a team that is on a major skid. With the state of the team at the moment, Miranda being in a slump that still has him at a 110 OPS+ deserves to be a highlight! Even rookies like Lars Newtbar and Jose Rodriguez have had 6-8 week slumps that saw them hitting worse than Miranda is now. Palacios, Lopez, catcher hitting, the outfield trainwreck-in-motion, and the generally poor defensive play, all seem more fitting for that section.
  15. Minny505
    Going by the stat line provided, Brent Headrick looks like his season was considerably better than the rest. Is there something not listed that is dragging him down in the vote?
  16. Minny505
    Agreed on pretty much all counts. As an analogy, there is also no evidence that banning the shift as MLB is implementing for 2023 will have any sort of impact on BABIP, but 70-something-percent of MLB fans share the opinion that it will. The comment I was responding to only cited a quick hook for SP. I am open to the fact that this is an incorrect take I have, just as my take on the 2023 MLB shift rules having any sort of league-wide impact on BABIP is, but I'm willing to make an equally strong statement regarding both outcomes. But if SPs start going longer with a change of manager, I suspect it will more likely be a change in data of the effectiveness of a SP vs RP in that situation, a new training method, rostering better SPs, etc...just as I suspect a bump in BABIP from 2022 to 2023 will coincide with a regression/progression to the BABIP mean and incorrectly attributed to the new shift rules. I don't disagree that the Twins could be better off with a manager who makes better player usage decisions elsewhere, or a stronger emphasis on all other facets of managing a baseball team, but I do not believe this one facet of game management will improve with a new manager that the FO would actually hire in his place. I am in favor of replacing the leadership of the FO. They have not proven very adept at player personnel decisions after five years and that would have a far greater impact on the success of this team than changing the manager...even if Rocco stayed. Good discussion though. Appreciate you digging deeper on the manager topic than his quick hook with SPs.
  17. Minny505
    By the nature of being a position player vs pitcher, Miranda certainly has the brightest future as pitchers break and quickly become ineffective at a much higher rate than position players. (though if you are judging this statement on the injury history of the Twins system, you'd probably disagree? #snakebitten)
  18. Minny505
    This kind of proves the axiom "every pitcher is injury prone until he isn't." With one healthy season on the heels of seven seasons with at least one trip to the MLB IL/DL, I'm not willing to bet that he will be available for more games than Mahle, Gray, Castillo, Montas, Ober, Kershaw, or just about any other pitcher in MLB. In fact, according to research by people much smarter than you or I, he is a higher injury risk than most pitchers as he has thrown more high velocity pitches this season than most other pitchers. That said, I am will to bet that, when he is on the mound, he will be better than almost all other SP per IP. There are players who truly do have some sort of genetic inferiority regarding soft-tissue injuries, but identifying that data in the course of a career can be almost impossible.
  19. Minny505
    So Rodon is off the table? Rodon, Kershaw, and DeGrom, will the most "injury prone" SP known to be available in FA this offseason. I would invest in any of them if there is a shot of landing them (there won't be with Kershaw and DeGrom).
  20. Minny505
    I think Denny Green summed up this Twins season best: "They are who we thought they were!"
  21. Minny505
    I get so tired of seeing comment boards with some variation of Rocco is the problem. He's not. The sooner we could agree that he is just a lackey executing the strategy of the FO, the sooner we can stop with this nonsense. He is likely pushing the envelope as far as he can with the FO without getting canned. You seem to think he should be fired because he pulls SPs too early for your liking. It's almost certainly the other way around that what he would actually get fired for by the FO is letting the SP go too long. Any replacement for Baldelli is almost certainly going to frustrate you even more as pitchers get pulled even earlier. Rocco is merely a Lieutenant who is ordering his troops to execute "the plan" of his commanders back at base. As long as he sticks to "the plan" he gets positive marks. But if he veers from that, he gets reprimanded. No one likes getting reprimanded.
  22. Minny505
    Is reliever of the year an official award? It sounds made up for this discussion.
  23. Minny505
    I am on board with making progress. While I don't necessarily agree on the Rogers-Pagan/Paddock take, I understand the opinion. The trade certainly hurt for the 2022 season. But the Garver take? Huh? Garver would be no help. He played roughly 20 games at catcher this season and was kinda terrible. Meanwhile, Gary Sanchez, who they flipped IKF for, has played 80-something games as a league average catcher. On top of that, Henriquez, the prospect they received, just turned 22, is already at AAA, and has arguably turned himself into the top pitching prospect in the Twins org. That trade was an A+ when it comes to impact on the 2022 season, and likely far beyond that.
  24. Minny505
    Agreed on the fans that are wanting Rocco gone don't want Cash, but I would be surprised if Falvey didn't go even more extreme with 2.0. That's why I say, think thru the likely consequences of using one of your three Twins Genie wishes on Rocco getting fired. If you think that Falvey would view the Twins failure being due to Rocco not pushing the boundaries of "the plan", as you put it, you are very, very mistaken. He's going to double down with 2.0.
  25. Minny505
    Of course he's not mad at the messenger. That's nonsense. He probably is frustrated with the FO for the directive Baldelli has to follow.
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