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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    The option on Bundy should be declined. I'm not opposed to bringing him back, but I'd rather decline the option and sign him back for $5, which is what his caliber of pitcher gets. Depending on the health of Maeda and Dobnak going into the offseason, we may need a fringe veteran 5th starter that we can cut if he fails. I just prefer more upside than Bundy.
  2. Minny505
    Agreed. At least owners of MLB teams like the Mets, Padres, Tigers of the 2010's, and I'm sure others, are deciding it's okay to essentially break even on cash-flow owning a baseball team, rather than pocketing 10s, and sometimes 100s, of millions of dollars every year. And that's on top of owning all the real estate around the stadium while having the public pay for their building of operations, plus having team resale value appreciate year over year by 5%-20% in real dollars (not nominal). I equate it to receiving tax dollars to personally invest in premium real estate, with essentially no strings attached or need to pay it back. That investment generates massive cash-flow from day one. It being in a premium neighborhood means it appreciates at an incredible rate and basically never has a down year. Every person on the planet would become a millionaire if they could pull off that scam...but we only reserve access to that scam for the uber wealthy. It sucks and makes me never want to pay a penny to MLB or MLB teams for anything they might make money from.
  3. Minny505
    It's not about WS championships. The randomness of one of the teams that seems to make it to the WS every season for the last ten years should have learned you that by now. But look at their combined division championships or cumulative regular season wins between them. And the gap between the opening day odds of the White Sox being a good team vs the Mets is getting bigger, not smaller. The Luxury Tax had worked for a long time, but the teams at the top have so much money it really makes no difference to them.
  4. Minny505
    He is on pace for as many throwing errors in 2022 as from 2019-2021 combined. Eye test here certainly, but he has seemed to bounce, or just straight miss, throws to 1B on the regular. Extreme plunge is an exaggeration, but plunge is not. He went from being the most valuable defensive player in the AL by most metrics to a slight liability vs the average defensive SS, and most of it is due to his throwing. Admittedly it could just be noise, but it is worth monitoring as he approaches his 30s.
  5. Minny505
    That definitely clarifies what RpR was trying to say. If that is the word he meant to use.
  6. Minny505
    Questioning the drop off is not bias. It's objectivity. That said, the drop off is likely 3-ish WAR and Correa is a much more valuable player to the team, even at the cost. Palacios is a serviceable bench player, nothing more...not at this point. But nearly every SS moves off the position in their early-to-mid thirties. The extreme plunge with which Correa is going thru right now is troubling, particularly for his defensive calling card: an incredible arm. He's been throwing the ball all over this year. Hopefully it's just a one-season blip, but arm issues for a SS leading up to free agency can be brutal on their earnings. Look at what happened to Trevor Story. He likely got about 40% less in FA than expected just a year earlier due to a balky arm. And in this case, the potential revelation of him playing thru an arm injury does not make the outlook better for him. My point is that, unless something changes, I suspect Correa will not exercise his opt-out. He's still a solid SS, one I want on my team, but he has played closer to the level of a $150mil SS, not a $280mil SS. I can't imagine him settling for that after his last offseason. BTW - What is a sourteneur? I've never heard that term.
  7. Minny505
    I actually think this is likely. I say that because Carlos wants a big payday and really only gets one shot at it. His sights were allegedly on him getting $300mil+ this past offseason, but never got that kind of offer. He may be lucky to get a $200mil offer with the way he has played, particularly on defense, which could scare teams from that big, long contract if he has to be moved to 3B in 2025. Though $200mil is certainly still in play at 29 should he have a bounceback 2023.
  8. Minny505
    I don't have any first hand medical experience, but I am married to one with nearly two decades of practitioner experience. It is not unusual for medical practitioners, once inside, to find issues that were not apparent thru any imaging. Imaging is very good, but not perfect. Now, the wrist, from what I understand, is actually one area where imaging clarity is highest, but even there, it is not perfect. It really sounds like something is still causing problems and it is likely fixable, perhaps a bone is not twisting correctly in a joint with certain movements, causing rubbing with another bone, something like that. It may be undetectable unless clearly imaged at the exact moment in his swing that he feels it, which is impossible with even the most advanced tech available that I know of. If it does not improve, Kirilloff really has nothing to lose by having exploratory surgery. His career is over unless it can be "permanently" improved.
  9. Minny505
    I'm sorry Seth. I know you know and love the guys the Twins traded away, but objectively they likely gave away: 1 serviceable MLB regular who has an 8-10 year career with 10-12 WAR. 2-3 decent role players that last 5 years or less in the majors. And the rest will never even make it, or get a cup of coffee at best. None will be stars. It's just the way prospects work. That is why, other than the cream of the crop, it's best to flip them once they raise their value. Most of those guys will never be worth more than they are right now. It was masterful. And who knows. Maybe one of those guys turns into the jackpot winning Powerball ticket. That's a chance well worth taking.
  10. Minny505
    I distrust people who use the phrase, "trust me", but that doesn't mean you're not wrong. The Twins would have had to start their offer with Miranda to match...and I'm already out. You could argue he is already the best hitter on the team.
  11. Minny505
    Yeah, the concerns by casual fans (Twins & Orioles) who most strongly judge on ERA, have been quite verbal about how he is just hot and going to regress to his career numbers before long. It's amazing having data like this to prove the performance is pretty real, even if the ERA might be a little lower than the performance would indicate. SSS often makes ERA so volatile (see Theilbar, Caleb), which is why it is not a great tool for performance. This dude is a stud. Arguably a Top 15 reliever in MLB. As long as he stays healthy, he will likely maintain that status.
  12. Minny505
    You aren't wrong. While Sanchez was rather rough at the position his entire career, and even made a bad first impression on both offense and defense for April, he has turned himself into an slightly better than average defensive catcher, pretty much on par with Jeffers. The two now make a great tandem. The most shocking part is that it's rather easy to argue that Jeffers is the better offensive player. In all, they have been shockingly similar in performance and production on both sides of the ball this season and Sanchez has played himself into a FA contract of at least 3/30, which the Twins are unlikely to ink. And due to age, my money is on Jeffers to likely be the better catcher in 2023 and beyond. But Sanchez has been a surprisingly solid all-around catcher, something I had no expectation of when we got him.
  13. Minny505
    Nailed it! Low wattage trade that fills the void of backup catcher with someone a little more dependable than Caleb Hamilton. I also would not be surprised to see him come in late to games with a lead as a defensive replacement for Sanchez about as often as he actually starts.
  14. Minny505
    That is a solid rotation. Plus Dobnak and Winder for depth. But I would be shocked if either Bundy or Archer are back for 2023 after this trade. Well, they may be back, but their options will not be picked up. I could see Archer on a MLB contract if he agrees to go to the pen. When/if Winder or Ober returns and they have five better SP than Archer, I kind of hope Baldelli just makes the kind of hard decision managers of the best teams make, and just send him to the bullpen, a la Dave Roberts and the Dodgers with Maeda. While Archer is the better pitcher, Bundy is probably the better starter, and should retain his standing in the rotation over Archer for the remainder of 2022.
  15. Minny505
    I'm all for a backup that is an upgrade on Hamilton if it costs peanuts and cracker jacks. I just don't know if that is available. If it is, pull that trigger.
  16. Minny505
    Wicked! This is the one I wanted see. I mean, getting Castillo would have been the best, but would likely cost Miranda plus another piece or two, as he is clearly top pitcher traded so far. I viewed Montas and Mahle as essentially 2a and 2b, with Mahle likely being far less prospect capital due to name value. Great haul. Steer has no position to play on the Twins at any point in the next 3-4 years barring injury. He was the definition of expendable. I hate slighting guys who make it to the level of proficiency that they can succeed at some levels of MLB affiliate baseball, but the others are highly likely marginal contributors at the MLB level at any point in their careers. (Just getting there is a helluva accomplishment) Hopefully there are a few more fireworks to come in the form of one more reliever.
  17. Minny505
    I suspect they went all the way thru the offseason and into spring training with a retooling year in mind for 2022, with an eye on contending again in 2023. Every single MLB player they acquired in the offseason had team control thru, or team options for, 2023 or beyond. Every one of them (please correct me if I'm wrong). I think they expected to see which of the vets could be serviceable, along with getting their AAA talent valuable experience, in preparation for a 2023 run. Not tanking, but not contending. Then one morning, shortly after spring training began, Falvey woke up to a text from Boras reading, "Correa wants to sign with you on a 1-3 year, high AAV contract. Interested?" Then expectations for 2022 began to shift for the fans, but the FO did not execute plans to contend up to that point. And here we are.
  18. Minny505
    All good points on Jeffers's return. The real question is if you are willing to DFA Sanchez if/when Jeffers does return. Sanchez is not a better option than Jeffers as a backup catcher. It's really not even close. And you and LaTroy are both right, that catcher framing is bad umping and I personally look forward to the robo-zone. That said, while the current system is in place, take advantage of that bad umping. The value of getting strikes called just 10% higher than the average rate on a particular pitch location has a crazy domino effect of run prevention. A 2-1 count is one of the most favorable hitter counts in baseball at any level, an educated guess is that a 1-2 count has an OPS about .300 points lower than a 2-1 count on anyone not named Luis Arraez. Get that extra strike eight, 10, 12, times a game and you are crushing the oppositions opportunity to put up crooked numbers. I get it, disliking the system. I'm there with you. But as long as it is the system we have in place, and we understand how to manipulate umpires into bad calls and the immense value those bad calls result in, pitch framing will be far and away the most valuable catcher skill and it would be ignorant to not use that to your advantage.
  19. Minny505
    Plus Cotton, before all of them, who has been a rock solid middle innings reliever since the Rangers moved him to the bullpen last season. And when/if he returns, Theilbar to matchup against the opposing teams best LHBs in innings 6-8. Need to get one more reliable arm to get 3 outs in innings 6-8. Short starts don't hurt as much when you can run out reliable relievers for 4 innings a night.
  20. Minny505
    I don't love Jeffers, but if I had to choose between Jeffers and Sanchez on the roster for September and October, I respond "Jeffers!!!" before the question is finished being asked. I'm not opposed to moving Jeffers to a backup role. That's perfectly fine. But do you really want to give up the resources necessary to get Wilson Contreras or Sean Murphy just to DFA Sanchez in September, resources we probably need to acquire Tyler Mahle? It's a cost-benefit thing for me. Would you do that?
  21. Minny505
    This is the right thinking. I'm sure the team has internal calculations for projected wins on all prospects. Fangraphs has published work like that in the past as well. From what I recall, the Twins likely traded an average outcome of 3.5 WAR for the total years of control traded. I'd even consider pulling the trigger on a trade like this if the Twins were out of it in 2022, but eyeing contention in 2023.
  22. Minny505
    I don't completely understand the backup catcher desire. Is the purpose to trade for a catcher you can DFA when Jeffers comes back? Do you DFA Sanchez? I can't imagine them doing either of those things, unless it's trading away a fungible reliever on the 40 man to with 4-6 years of control for some teams backup. I'm good with that. And if your response is to send down Jeffers, that's a hard "No." He is a really good defensive catcher who can hit. On this site, around June 25th, in a discussion about Jeffers, I said to look at his statcast numbers. They screamed "breakout incoming." It was obvious. Sure enough, within a couple weeks he was one of the Twins's hottest hitters. He's the best hitting catcher and the best defensive catcher on the team. I just don't know why you would spend resources to get a catcher better than Gary Sanchez so you can DFA Sanchez when Jeffers returns. Carry 3 catchers come September? Only if the acquired catcher is a 110 OPS+ or can play OF.
  23. Minny505
    This is where I'm at as well. A couple relievers for mostly spare prospects will help win the division. Trading any of the young, controllable, MLB hitters for a top SP is more of a move you make when you plan on making a run IN the postseason. I know the playoffs are kind of a crapshoot, but not that much of a crapshoot.
  24. Minny505
    It looks like Joe Smith is a placeholder in the bullpen so the team can avoid calling up Strotman, Smeltzer, or Sands, before the deadline. Otherwise, I just don't get it.
  25. Minny505
    I love the positivity, but about the best Miranda can hope to finish in the ROTY voting is 2nd. No one is beating out Rodriguez. Both are special players, but Rodriguez is having arguably the best rookie season since Mike Trout. That's a-whole-nother-level. I encourage everyone to catch some Mariners games after the Twins finish for the night. He is worth it.
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