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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    You aren't wrong. While Sanchez was rather rough at the position his entire career, and even made a bad first impression on both offense and defense for April, he has turned himself into an slightly better than average defensive catcher, pretty much on par with Jeffers. The two now make a great tandem. The most shocking part is that it's rather easy to argue that Jeffers is the better offensive player. In all, they have been shockingly similar in performance and production on both sides of the ball this season and Sanchez has played himself into a FA contract of at least 3/30, which the Twins are unlikely to ink. And due to age, my money is on Jeffers to likely be the better catcher in 2023 and beyond. But Sanchez has been a surprisingly solid all-around catcher, something I had no expectation of when we got him.
  2. Minny505
    Nailed it! Low wattage trade that fills the void of backup catcher with someone a little more dependable than Caleb Hamilton. I also would not be surprised to see him come in late to games with a lead as a defensive replacement for Sanchez about as often as he actually starts.
  3. Minny505
    That is a solid rotation. Plus Dobnak and Winder for depth. But I would be shocked if either Bundy or Archer are back for 2023 after this trade. Well, they may be back, but their options will not be picked up. I could see Archer on a MLB contract if he agrees to go to the pen. When/if Winder or Ober returns and they have five better SP than Archer, I kind of hope Baldelli just makes the kind of hard decision managers of the best teams make, and just send him to the bullpen, a la Dave Roberts and the Dodgers with Maeda. While Archer is the better pitcher, Bundy is probably the better starter, and should retain his standing in the rotation over Archer for the remainder of 2022.
  4. Minny505
    I'm all for a backup that is an upgrade on Hamilton if it costs peanuts and cracker jacks. I just don't know if that is available. If it is, pull that trigger.
  5. Minny505
    Wicked! This is the one I wanted see. I mean, getting Castillo would have been the best, but would likely cost Miranda plus another piece or two, as he is clearly top pitcher traded so far. I viewed Montas and Mahle as essentially 2a and 2b, with Mahle likely being far less prospect capital due to name value. Great haul. Steer has no position to play on the Twins at any point in the next 3-4 years barring injury. He was the definition of expendable. I hate slighting guys who make it to the level of proficiency that they can succeed at some levels of MLB affiliate baseball, but the others are highly likely marginal contributors at the MLB level at any point in their careers. (Just getting there is a helluva accomplishment) Hopefully there are a few more fireworks to come in the form of one more reliever.
  6. Minny505
    I suspect they went all the way thru the offseason and into spring training with a retooling year in mind for 2022, with an eye on contending again in 2023. Every single MLB player they acquired in the offseason had team control thru, or team options for, 2023 or beyond. Every one of them (please correct me if I'm wrong). I think they expected to see which of the vets could be serviceable, along with getting their AAA talent valuable experience, in preparation for a 2023 run. Not tanking, but not contending. Then one morning, shortly after spring training began, Falvey woke up to a text from Boras reading, "Correa wants to sign with you on a 1-3 year, high AAV contract. Interested?" Then expectations for 2022 began to shift for the fans, but the FO did not execute plans to contend up to that point. And here we are.
  7. Minny505
    All good points on Jeffers's return. The real question is if you are willing to DFA Sanchez if/when Jeffers does return. Sanchez is not a better option than Jeffers as a backup catcher. It's really not even close. And you and LaTroy are both right, that catcher framing is bad umping and I personally look forward to the robo-zone. That said, while the current system is in place, take advantage of that bad umping. The value of getting strikes called just 10% higher than the average rate on a particular pitch location has a crazy domino effect of run prevention. A 2-1 count is one of the most favorable hitter counts in baseball at any level, an educated guess is that a 1-2 count has an OPS about .300 points lower than a 2-1 count on anyone not named Luis Arraez. Get that extra strike eight, 10, 12, times a game and you are crushing the oppositions opportunity to put up crooked numbers. I get it, disliking the system. I'm there with you. But as long as it is the system we have in place, and we understand how to manipulate umpires into bad calls and the immense value those bad calls result in, pitch framing will be far and away the most valuable catcher skill and it would be ignorant to not use that to your advantage.
  8. Minny505
    Plus Cotton, before all of them, who has been a rock solid middle innings reliever since the Rangers moved him to the bullpen last season. And when/if he returns, Theilbar to matchup against the opposing teams best LHBs in innings 6-8. Need to get one more reliable arm to get 3 outs in innings 6-8. Short starts don't hurt as much when you can run out reliable relievers for 4 innings a night.
  9. Minny505
    I don't love Jeffers, but if I had to choose between Jeffers and Sanchez on the roster for September and October, I respond "Jeffers!!!" before the question is finished being asked. I'm not opposed to moving Jeffers to a backup role. That's perfectly fine. But do you really want to give up the resources necessary to get Wilson Contreras or Sean Murphy just to DFA Sanchez in September, resources we probably need to acquire Tyler Mahle? It's a cost-benefit thing for me. Would you do that?
  10. Minny505
    This is the right thinking. I'm sure the team has internal calculations for projected wins on all prospects. Fangraphs has published work like that in the past as well. From what I recall, the Twins likely traded an average outcome of 3.5 WAR for the total years of control traded. I'd even consider pulling the trigger on a trade like this if the Twins were out of it in 2022, but eyeing contention in 2023.
  11. Minny505
    I don't completely understand the backup catcher desire. Is the purpose to trade for a catcher you can DFA when Jeffers comes back? Do you DFA Sanchez? I can't imagine them doing either of those things, unless it's trading away a fungible reliever on the 40 man to with 4-6 years of control for some teams backup. I'm good with that. And if your response is to send down Jeffers, that's a hard "No." He is a really good defensive catcher who can hit. On this site, around June 25th, in a discussion about Jeffers, I said to look at his statcast numbers. They screamed "breakout incoming." It was obvious. Sure enough, within a couple weeks he was one of the Twins's hottest hitters. He's the best hitting catcher and the best defensive catcher on the team. I just don't know why you would spend resources to get a catcher better than Gary Sanchez so you can DFA Sanchez when Jeffers returns. Carry 3 catchers come September? Only if the acquired catcher is a 110 OPS+ or can play OF.
  12. Minny505
    This is where I'm at as well. A couple relievers for mostly spare prospects will help win the division. Trading any of the young, controllable, MLB hitters for a top SP is more of a move you make when you plan on making a run IN the postseason. I know the playoffs are kind of a crapshoot, but not that much of a crapshoot.
  13. Minny505
    It looks like Joe Smith is a placeholder in the bullpen so the team can avoid calling up Strotman, Smeltzer, or Sands, before the deadline. Otherwise, I just don't get it.
  14. Minny505
    I love the positivity, but about the best Miranda can hope to finish in the ROTY voting is 2nd. No one is beating out Rodriguez. Both are special players, but Rodriguez is having arguably the best rookie season since Mike Trout. That's a-whole-nother-level. I encourage everyone to catch some Mariners games after the Twins finish for the night. He is worth it.
  15. Minny505
    Pierzynski is the best FOX national TV broadcast game analyst, right there with CJ Nitkowski. Smoltz needs to get the boot for the lead game of the week and the lead playoff series in favor of one of those two. Their insights are so valuable and entertaining. It feels like a long time since Mark Grace was a game analyst and AJ is the closest thing to him that I have ever heard. Listening to John Smolts is like a half step improvement on Bert Blylevin. The baseball world deserves better.
  16. Minny505
    Hands down my favorite regular read (at least I hope it will become that) on Twins Daily, which is a huge compliment. Being a new way to look at data, I also want to make a suggestion. Changing the league average OPS to a rolling average as well. The OPS being a flat bar, particularly in a season like 2022, can be deceiving. Having a rolling league average would show us individual trends vs league wide trends. Or put them both on the graph. Regardless, I'll be digging in every time you publish.
  17. Minny505
    Completely agree. And those veteran OFers got next to nothing in return. I do think Kepler is more valuable as a trade chip than any of them, but it's likely not enough to get anything of value for that would help in 2022 or 2023, if ever. Just ask yourself...if you had a great trade offer on the table and that offer is the same, could be prospects or vets, provided you give that offering team one of: Miranda, Kirilloff, or Kepler. Even for a team leading the division going into August, you are trading Kepler 100% of the time. To me, that is the definition of trade value.
  18. Minny505
    Do you mean in the offseason? The Angels have no hope of contending for a wild card spot this season and will only be interested in prospect packages with their payroll situation.
  19. Minny505
    Maybe I'm wrong, but I suspect that if you offered the Phillies, Mets, Marlins, Astros, or nearly any other contending team, Kepler, Miranda, or Kirilloff, every one of them would offer up a better package for Kirilloff or Miranda. Some will prefer Kepler if they more value OF defense, but that's it. Most will want the better bats. In fact, trading Miranda or Kirilloff to the Phillies for pitching may be on the table. I assure you, they have no interest in Kepler and they are very much in contention.
  20. Minny505
    I don't understand this list. I agree with Polanco, Arraez, & Ryan, all having an argument for five most valuable trade chips. Buxton and Kepler are so out of place though. Kirilloff, Miranda, & Duran, all have far more trade value than those two. Probably Bailey Ober as well (at least until the mysterious injury that has him sidelined for months past the original eval predictions). If you text the Reds GM and start the negotiation with Max Kepler, you might get a "Is this a joke? I'm not in the mood." in response...and you become a laughing stock as a screenshot of your offer goes viral thru the leagues front offices. You are terminated 17 minutes later after Dave St. Peter gets the screenshot, can never find a job in baseball again, become an alcoholic to cope with your dream life evaporating, and die of jaundice at the age of 52. You offer Miranda, and the Reds GM probably responds with, "That's a good start. We'd also like two of the three following guys to be included. I got the Dodgers offering xxx right now." That's trade value. Don't mistakenly offer Max Kepler thinking he has trade value. It's bad for your health.
  21. Minny505
    Unless Kepler or Buxton end up on the IL as a result of their current injuries, Celestino needs to go down for his own good. He is not yet a great major leaguer, meaning he has struggled to make the latest necessary adjustments, and seems to need AAA time against lesser competition to figure it out and come back roaring. In the meantime, Sano naturally takes his place on the 13 man. He plays DH when no one else is getting that partial day off.
  22. Minny505
    I heard Eno Sarris comment on one of his podcasts a few weeks ago that he is super frustrated with Pagan because he would be elite if he would just stop throwing the cutter. That's all. Stop throwing the cutter and he would be an excellent reliever. It has horrible stuff+ and command+ ratings in his system. His other offerings are above-average to wicked-good. I don't understand his (Pagan's) stubborness on continuing to use that pitch. It is one of the worst pitches in MLB.
  23. Minny505
    When adjusting for the league average, which is portrayed in baseball statistics by adding a + to the end of a stat. So, OPS+ indicates a players OPS compared to the rest of the league that season. Right now Arraez has a BA+ of 147. That is equal to the BA+ that Ted Williams had in 1941 when he hit .406. Essentially, Luis Arraez would be hitting .400 right now if he played in 1941. That's amazing! He is having the best batting everage season we have seen since 1958. There are many analysts of the Fangraphs/Statcast ilk that are watching to see if Arraez can keep this up to match, or surpass, the greatest batting average season in MLB history. How fun would if be if he breaks that record at season's end!? Twins broadcast team needs to be making a big deal of this. He's chasing a 64 year old BA record!!!
  24. Minny505
    Bundy, Ober, Smeltzer, and Winder, all have crazy similar xERA/FIP/xFIP numbers. I would take an upgrade on any of them for our 3rd starter. Any one of these five guys in the article accomplish that. I'd take the lowest cost in trade capital, whichever that is. I would move Archer to a bullpen role upon return from the IL and see if he plays up to be a dependable high leverage arm by October. He's clearly the worst of the starters with six better options ahead of him when all are healthy, seven if a trade is made. [Obligatory: Bullpen is the main area to upgrade thru trades]
  25. Minny505
    Another one in agreement on the Sox being the main threat. That said, both the Sox and Indians have a better real record than their BaseRuns record, while the Twins are pretty much spot on. I do expect the Sox to trade to make themselves better, but they have a lot of improving to do in the second half to look like a real competitor to the Twins. I would not be surprised to see the Guardians once again be sellers at the deadline even if they have a winning record.
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