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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    We will have to agree to disagree on Sale. I literally never look at ERA because that is about the team's performance when that pitcher is on the mound, not how well the pitcher pitched. His K%, BB%, K/BB, HR%, GB%, FIP, xFIP, dERA, DRA, SIERA, and Statcast metrics, all still look elite. As for his IP/GS...that entirely has to do with him ramping up after injury, then getting injured again, but in fluke ways. None of it is arm issues. The reference you are making to arm issues is people speculating for a decade that his arm would break, but him routinely pitching 200 innings a season. UCL surgery comes for almost all pitchers at some point, even the workhorse that is Justin Verlander. His upside is Carlos Rodon. Don't kid yourself. But I do agree on Rodon. I'd rather just sign him as well. Sale would be a close second choice though, if he could be signed on a one year deal the way Rodon was in 2022. The falloff from there, for the contract risk/reward that would likely need to be signed, will probably not end up being worth it.
  2. Minny505
    I am actually shocked at the lack of interest in Chris Sale on this board. He hasn't been mentioned once. Sure, he has only thrown 48 innings the last couple seasons combined, but they were still elite, true-ace level innings. Calling Sale injury prone is a misnomer. All his time missed was due to UCL surgery (common) and then three separate consecutive bone fractures (impact). Nothing in his history indicates soft-tissue concerns. On top of that, there is a fair chance he is looking for a Rodon-like make-good contract. 1/25 may get it done with him.
  3. Minny505
    Of the big 4, he certainly seems to be the best fit from a contract and skill set perspective. I'd still rather trade for a Mateo or IKF type, but this kind of signing might still allow for a game 1 SP.
  4. Minny505
    Arraez's metrics are rather amazing at 1B. Of the three Twins players, he likely has the highest odds of emerging the victor, particularly if voters pro-rate a bit to give him credit for a full season, considering the circumstance in which he became the team's 1B.
  5. Minny505
    I'd be far more excited about a trade for IKF, Jorge Mateo, or some other inexpensive option that can be relied on as a solid contributor if & when Lewis or another prospect steps up. As much as we want that to be 2023, it may not realistically happen and we need someone more reliable in case that is how it goes down.
  6. Minny505
    That is a bit of a surprise. If you look at the team as a whole, BA is completely reversed. Bodes well for his bat not going completely Aldrelton in 2023. None of that changes my opinion on signing him to be a stop gap. I'm fine with him as a minor league signing and fallback or utility option, if that's the idea. 32 and 33 are the years where the wheels start to come off for most non-superstar middle infielders. We saw it first hand with players like Dozier and Simmons, but it's a well researched aging curve. The risk just isn't worth it. What if none of our prospects are ready to step in during the season? Do you really want Iglesias as the starting SS all year? In 2019 I was all over this idea, but that ship has sailed.
  7. Minny505
    According to Statcast, it was the 6th most homer friendly stadium in the league in 2022. It was 1st in hits and by a statistically significant margin. Rockies Stadium is foremost a batting average park. They have the largest OF in the majors and that means a lot of hits drop in and artificially boost batting average. Since they started using the humidor, so for 20 years now, the park has gone from ridiculously homer friendly to just homer friendly. For base hits, it's outlandish. Impressive how strong that initial impression is of the stadium is though. I am certain nearly half of baseball fans over the age of 35, still think of it as a homerun first park. So yeah, between that, the age, and the diminished glove, hard pass on anything more than a minor league contract. Source: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2022&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=8&sortDir=desc
  8. Minny505
    I'd rather just trade for IKF, but I would keep him as a true Nick Punto like utility man that can masterfully backup every position in the IF...and maybe There will likely be higher upside catchers available for trade at a lite cost, such as Joey Bart with the Giants or Carson Kelly with the Dbacks. Both are out of favor with their teams and are said to be change of scenery guys. Either would cost more than Rortvedt, but it would likely be marginally more and worth it.
  9. Minny505
    At this point, I agree. That said, the field could look a little rosier after non-tenders.
  10. Minny505
    In another thread I just saw the suggestion of now backup Jorge Mateo on the Orioles. Pagan would be a really good fit there. He is the most homer prone pitcher in MLB with peripherals that scream great pitcher otherwise. But those homers. They kill him like no other pitcher in baseball. It's almost unbelieveable. But now the Orioles have the most homer suppressing stadium in baseball. Pagan would be the best test the Orioles could give to their new dimensions to see how far they can ride that potential competitive advantage. The Orioles dumping a superfluous SS on the roster makes sense. Not saying Pagan would get it done, but he may have value there. Throw in another minor piece, some SP prospect in the 10ish range, and they might bite.
  11. Minny505
    He was a below MLB average defender at SS this past season, and at his age, that is likely to be the trend for him. And I doubt his bat will play well outside of Colorado. I'm not usually a Rox stadium makes a difference guy, but for a slap hitter with no plate discipline, the large ballpark of the Rockies is a perfect fit for him to be his best. I'd take him on a minor league deal with a spring invite, but nothing more...and that probably won't get it done.
  12. Minny505
    Sounds like Mondesi is likely to be non-tendered. Could be a good FA signing if that is the case.
  13. Minny505
    I absolutely LOVE this idea. He would fit the Twins' need for more speed. And while being a poor hitter in general, he brings quite a bit of pop. Reminds me of Kahlil Greene at the plate, but with GG caliber defense and could be a top 10 base stealer if he can improve his OBP a bit.
  14. Minny505
    It seems like the allure of being the GM that signs the next 2022 version of Jose Quintana or Johnny Cueto is irresistible to these guys. While this is certainly possible, as a few guys signed on $6mil-ish on a one year contract break out every year, but the percentage of those deals handed out each offseason, that actually play out the way you dream, is so rare. You would need to sign a dozen of those guys to find one or two. It's just not worth the risk.
  15. Minny505
    I was at one of the games in which he played all 9 innings at SS. He was rough. Poor instincts and anticipation. What I mean is that he essentially had 4 plays in the game. He botched 2 of them. The first on a looper to RF where the batter tried to stretch it to a double. Martin was late to cover 2B and a perfect throw by the RFer to the bag, that would have gotten a precious AFL out, was wasted. An inning later a hot 2 hopper was hit to him and he "olayed" the ball. He made one particularly impressive throw from the hole. On both plays that he did make, his arm strength surprised me, as that is usually the knock on minor leaguers being able to stick at the position.
  16. Minny505
    Probably $6mil for Modesi as the talking head consensus seems to be that he will be non-tendered, especially with a new GM coming in. He seems a better option than Iglesias. Might be a good change of scenery candidate.
  17. Minny505
    Rrrrriiiiiggggghhhhhhttttttt All good points, but still has nothing to do with use the term "ice cold" to describe a two month performance for a 23 year old rookie. "Ice cold" is a term you use for a rookie who needs to be sent back down to AAA. 23 year old rookies that go "ice cold" but maintain a better than league average bat while going "ice cold" have an outside chance of being in the Baseball Hall of Fame roughly 10 years after they retire. It seems like an exaggerated term to use on a guy who will likely be a very good 125ish OPS+, Carlos Correa, Justin Morneau, level hitter over his career, but not a hall of famer. He does not seem to be an elite hitter, as the use of the term "ice cold" would lead one to believe. He merely had two months where the league made adjustments and now it's his turn to adjust back and be that solid, 125ish OPS+ batter that he can be, over a full season. Hopefully he does. I do not expect him to be a 150 or better batter and an annual all-star starter. FWIW, I would have voted Correa the MVP. Miranda would be in my top 10, but not top 5. Urshela was more valuable in 2022 and is a better defender, but the gap in that defense between the two is likely a lot smaller than most people perceive. Going forward, I would put my money on Miranda being the more valuable 3B, but not Mike Schmidt. Maybe Justin Turner though, if he maxes his talent. That would be amazing.
  18. Minny505
    Yes, Urshela had a better offensive season (not going to get into the defensive performance here). But that's not my point at all. My point is that, if we are going to describe a 23 year old's last two months of his rookie season, during which said months he hit an OPS+ of 103, as "ice cold", then we have a potential hall of famer here and we are not nearly high enough on him. Because a 103 is the kind of OPS+ only hall of fame players put up in their rookie season when they are "ice cold". That is my point.
  19. Minny505
    If two months of batting an OPS+ of 103 is ice cold, we are not nearly high enough on this kid and his upside.
  20. Minny505
    I beg to differ. Prior to signing Correa, Arraez was the top projected player in WAR on the Twins, and the AL batting champ, for the 2022 season by just about every system on the internet. Setting aside personal bias and using the models, that are accurate to ridiculous degrees, is usually the safe bet. I'm glad the models were right. His season was probably the most fun to watch on a nightly basis.
  21. Minny505
    Eno Sarris of The Athletic has published more research and data on this very topic than any other data analyst in the public sphere. His summary is that the RPs that allow the fewest runs have the best stuff. There is a very direct and strong correlation between these metrics, while command has near zero correlation. For SPs, stuff still has a stronger correlation with preventing runs than command, but command is still statistically significant. So while it may feel like command is WAY more important to many fans, it just simply is not as important at all. The results which is unfeeling, factual data, do not agree. Also, Megill has okay stuff, but nothing to get excited about. Pagan has legitimately great stuff and his results are a very incredible outlier in Eno's model. It happens. No predictive model will be perfect 100% of the time. Pagan's real problem is not that he has poor command per se, but rather the problem is that when he does miss, he misses middle-middle with a cement mixer at an almost unbelievable rate...as if he has a giant open bet with a ruthless bookie, on himself to giving up a homerun in that appearance.
  22. Minny505
    I can't believe it took until the 31st post to even mention Rodon. I am obviously in the minority, but I would so much tell Correa to start packing and focus on Rodon. We need top end pitching more than we need a top end SS...and there is only one top end FA SP, while there are at least 4 top end FA SSs available. As Dallas loves to say, "Gimme the lefty!"
  23. Minny505
    I like the reasoning, but I still disagree with your projected outcome. If they release him, they will likely sign a part-time RHB COF to replace him that will cost $6mil-$8mil. Why spend that when you can have Garlick for $1mil or so? If the FO plans on signing a more well-rounded, everyday RHB COF/DH type bat, then Garlick is gone. But if they are only looking for a platoon RHB COF, they don't get much better than Garlick and he will be MUCH cheaper than anyone they can acquire from outside the org.
  24. Minny505
    In addition to Caleb Hamilton, which many have previously mentioned, I can say with 100% confidence that Billy Hamilton won't be back on a MLB contract. And I would put the odds on Aaron Sanchez, who I have also not seen mentioned, being DFA'd at a much higher probability than Megill, who himself is probably more likely to be DFA'd than Coulumbe. I would be shocked if Garlick was DFA'd. He fills a crucial need for the Twins lineup due to the fact that he mashes LHP to a point that he was among the league leaders in OPS vs LHP while he was playing healthy. Subtracting Hamilton, Hamilton, & Sanchez from the 40, and adding Garlick to it, leaves 5 spots to to fill with acquisitions this offseason, enough to grab a big game SP, a solid RP, a stopgap SS, and a backup C, with one spot left for a wild card.
  25. Minny505
    This is an epic rant that I laughed at the whole way thru. And it wouldn't be funny if you were wrong.
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