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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    As strange as this competition sounds, the 26th man probably comes down to Astudillo vs Smeltzer.
  2. Minny505
    I would be rather shocked if Dobnak is not in St a Saints uni to start the season, unless there is an injury to one of the projected starting five. I think the odds of the Twins going to a 6-man rotation to keep Dobnak on the MLB roster is higher than Dobnak making the roster as a reliever.
  3. Minny505
    This is so rad Jamie!!! Thank you. Does Baseball Savant weight the new Game Score vs the league average? I feel without context of the rest of the league's average score, this is not as helpful as it could be.
  4. Minny505
    No thank you on Marwin. If we are looking to bring someone in from outside the org to fill the 5th IF role, I'd rather they have some offensive upside. Someone like Brad Miller or Maikel Franco would be where I would prefer to go. I'd rather that money go to pitching though. Gordon, Blankenhorn, and two-time MVP runner up Willians Astudillo can handle a 5th IF role, if it's needed at all.
  5. Minny505
    Huh? I really haven't heard much pessimism in Twins Territory (minus Mr Trueblood) regarding Luis Arraez. If anything, it's positivity as he is going to make one of the finest leadoff hitters in MLB. That's the buzz I hear. Fantasy baseball experts are putting him near the top of 2B draft boards because of his BA and the expectation that he'll be leading off and scoring buckets of runs. Most projection systems have him prorated to 150 games/600 ABs as one of the top 3 position players on the Twins by WAR Which is where the rub lies. He may be injury prone. I want to give him another season before I hit him with that label. But even playing injured, he's still been amazing in his very young career. Just think of the upside when we get to see him healthy over a full season!!!
  6. Minny505
    Wrong may be a better defensive SS than Gregorius or Polanco right now. If the FO believes he can handle SS, he could make a good Util Man. Otherwise, pass. The priority needs to be someone who can handle SS better than Polanco as a starter (Semien, Simmons, Galvis, Baez) or someone who can handle it as well or better than Polanco with a passable or better hit tool to be a true 10th Man (Gregorius, Wong?, Goodrum).
  7. Minny505
    My heart wants Simmons because he is the most fun player in MLB to watch in the field. He is not as flashy as Baez, but he seems to be a quantum speed thinker who is always aware of the game situation, the spin of a struck ball, etc. His snap decision making is just ridiculous to watch. That said, my brain says Semien, because while is not nearly as good or as fun to watch on defense, he is still a solid average to above-average defender, with a hit tool that could play in the middle of the Twins lineup. Which do you prefer? (And don't say Gregorius, because that would be a downgrade from Polanco on defense)
  8. Minny505
    If you take a few minutes to dig into Semien's Statcast defensive stats*, you will see that the only weakness he has is going "to his right". He is solidly above average in every other direction. His "to his right" is not only bad, it stands out with many outs worse than the 2nd worst. Now, flip over to the 3B leaderboard and notice the #2 defender there. It would make sense that a lot of the outs that Semien is not converting "to his right" are because Chapman is cutting those balls off before Semien has a chance to make the play. I am not sure if that is how Statcast is allocating OOA (maybe someone can tweet Mike Petriello?), but if you look at Trevor Story's numbers, you see a similar pattern as Semien. If that is the case, then Semien would be a solid average to above-average defensive SS, which is far better than the two worst fielding starting SS in MLB, which are Polanco and Gregorius. *https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&year=all&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=6&roles=&viz=show
  9. Minny505
    I suspect Paxton wants a 1 year deal to show he can make it thru a season. The number of big paydays over the years for "injury prone but excellent when healthy" pitchers, that make it thru just one year healthy, is substantial. If I were Paxton, I'd want 1 year, or 3+. 2 years just doesn't make sense. He is the kind of pitcher who will want to cash in on a healthy season when he finally has it. Regardless, I think I'd prefer Odo. What about Tanaka? Can we do him vs Odo instead? It seems like a better comp. Paxton would match up better with someone like Garrett Richards, another pitcher with a history of injuries and impressive performance when healthy. I really love this series Matthew. Maybe we could do some sort of bracket style at each position of need and crown a winner after a few rounds for each. Then we can send our list to Falvey so he and the crew can make it happen. Just throwin it out there.
  10. Minny505
    I don't even think I would sign Gregorius as the starting SS. The blended data from various metric sites would put Gregorius as an even, at best, defender to Polanco. I would actually prefer Polanco at SS to Gregorius, though the move is lateral. The offensive track record and projection is shockingly similar to Polanco as well. There may not be two more similar players in all of MLB when taken as a full package. It's remarkable how similar they are. I'd sign Gregorius as a Utility man, but I suspect he wants a starting gig. I can say this with conviction though: Gregorius is one of few starting caliber SS in MLB that would not be a defensive upgrade over Polanco. That is not what this team needs. If we are going to spend money on a SS, they need to be a defensive improvement. This is the opposite. This is getting worse.
  11. Minny505
    I'd be down for Taillon. He is a good pitcher that would improve the Twins rotation. Unless the brass sees something they can fix in Kuhl, I'd pass. I mean, he's depth, but the salary space isn't likely worth it. He's already 28. Maybe a bullpen option?
  12. Minny505
    Interesting perspective. I feel you've got it backward though. According to Statcast Outs-Above-Average, Gregorius and Polanco are exactly even over the last two seasons and they are poor defenders in the same way as well. Using UZR to tip the scales, I'd actually prefer Polanco playing SS over Gregorius, providing their numbers stay consistent. Polanco is also 3 years younger, something that probably matters more at SS than any other position. Semien's mediocre defensive numbers are largely skewed by poor "to his right" numbers. Seeing as he has had the best defensive 3B alive playing to his right during that time, I can excuse him not making plays that are converted to outs by Chapman. And of course, Simmons is probably the best fielding SS MLB has seen since Ozzie Smith. He hits LHP well and that is something the Twins need. All contracts being equal, Semien is likely the best of the group and is a great fit, improving both the lineup and the defense. Simmons improves the defense the most and, while he struggles against RHP (Polanco can start 30% of those games), his bat against LHP will still be an asset. Gregorius just seems redundant with Polanco in the field and in a lineup with plentiful LHB in Polanco(see splits), Arraez, Kepler, Kiriloff, Cave, and even Gordon, Blankenhorn, and Wade. Also, fantastic article Cody.
  13. Minny505
    I'd like to submit Masahiro Tanaka for 1 year at $15mil. That is reportedly what he is looking for (https://sny.tv/articles/how-corey-kluber-deal-happened-and-what-it-means-for-yankees-rotation) Not sure if the Twins would be on his list of potential destinations, but it could be. Would certainly be preferred over anyone on this list, and maybe even over Odo, if that reported contract price and length are accurate.
  14. Minny505
    I'm so confused by the absence of Masahiro Tanaka from this list. He is the flip side of the Jake Odorizzi coin. If Odorizzi is 2a, Tanaka should be 2b...right? Whatever it takes to sign Odo, that is about the same as it will take to sign Tanaka. MLBTR has them projected for the exact same contract. And the Yankees are likely out of the bidding now. Mostly curious as to your reasoning Nick for not including him?
  15. Minny505
    I completely agree with you. Five years of Dunning seems more valuable than one year of Lance Lynn.
  16. Minny505
    This list is so much fun Nick. Thank you. My only substantial point of disagreement, which has been pointed out by many others already, is the ranking of Arraez. You seem so low on him, it's borderline shocking. He is projected to have the 2nd most WAR on the roster in 2021 by ZiPS. Steamer has him as the best two bagger in the AL per 600PAs. Add in that Arraez is essentially the same age as Jeffers and Larnach, only a half year older than Kirilloff, under team control for five more years, vs six with those guys, and I feel like you have a more valuable asset than either Jeffers or Larnach, one that is much closer to Kirilloff. Just my two cents. Thanks again Nick. Keep doing the things. Appreciate you.
  17. Minny505
    With this CBA expiring after 2021, I expect this is the last season we will see these particular shenanigans employed.
  18. Minny505
    The more I look at the IF situation, the more I believe getting one of the 3 SS on the market is a crucial move. Polanco, Arraez, and Donaldson, all have concerning injury histories. Signing a SS and moving Polanco to UI gives everyone in that group a chance to start at least 120 games each. That's if everyone stays healthy, which would be amazing, but unlikely. In that scenario, if Polanco stays healthy (which is already in question to start the season), he could easily end up getting 150 starts or so on the season. If we don't sign a SS, we likely end up giving 100 or so starts to a mix of players like Adrianza, Blankenhorn, Gordon, etc. That sounds horrible.
  19. Minny505
    Awesome post. You are spot on about it likely taking Belazovic for the Twins to get him for one season. Hard "no" on that proposition. Rangers did incredibly well in this deal. Good on them. Unless the ChiSox worked out a gentlemen's agreement with Lynn to sign him to an extension, I don't like this deal much for them. That's a lot to give up for one year of Lynn, who slipped a bit last season, despite a great ERA. His velo and Ks were down a tick from 2019, which at 33 years old, may be the first season of a steady decline. Still a very good pitcher to have for the next season or two.
  20. Minny505
    I'd like to correct you Nick. MVP Baseball 2005 was not the final installment of the series. There was an 06 and 07 as well. And as far as the gameplay on the field was concerned, they were a huge jump over 2005, as hard as that may be to believe. MVP 06 is probably the game I have sunk the most time into in my life. I never played 2005 after I purchased 06. It is true EA lost their MLB license, but they transitioned over to college. Running a college program was even more satisfying on console back then than it was to run a MLB team. I say all this as a guy who has watched about 50 innings of college baseball in my life. I watch that many innings a week of MLB ball during the season. But the gameplay was so amazing and that is all I really care for in a baseball game. The pitching was improved from 2005. The fielding was the most fun I've ever had playing defense in a video game. The batting animations and ball flight were on par with The Show in 2010. And the base running control has never been matched. I never moved on from playing that game of baseball until The Show 2016. 10 years of sticking with it. None of the versions of The Show up until then were good enough for me to make the switch. And OOTP helped feed the GM addiction.
  21. Minny505
    This is so wonderful and ridiculous and terrible all at once. Well done and thank you.
  22. Minny505
    Are there rules to how you can call up and send down guys from the alt site this year? It may just be to bide time with the bullpen and then send down Astudillo when Dobby's next start rolls around, similar to what the Dodgers are notorious for doing. Dobnak probably never throws a pitch in game action at the alt site.
  23. Minny505
    I was watching the ChiSox broadcast last night (cuz they might be the best broadcast in MLB nowadays) and when the Twins went to Rogers last night they said the lefty matchup is where they win their games. And that is exactly what happened. With a wRC+ of 149 vs LHP on the season, that is a ridiculous spot to put Rogers in. I think more than the win, Rocco had "test" in mind for Rogers. Best to find out now, in September rather than October, how the lefty can perform against that lineup. And he got his answer. It's unfortunate one of our best bullpen weapons is a liability against the Sox, but baseball is a bittersweet science and that science is bitter about that matchup for any LHP.
  24. Minny505
    Do we know if rosters are dropping to 26 for the playoffs this year? If not, keep them all. Maybe drop one to keep Hill on the roster, because that dude is as good as any in MLB one time thru the lineup. We know, based on studies published by Fangraphs, BP, etc, that relievers carry an ERA about one run higher on day two of back-to-back usage vs 1+ day off. That means we should basically never use a reliever two games in a row since we have so much depth. I trust Matt Wisler on rest to perform better than Tyler Duffey on day two of a back-to-back...in any situation. So bring them all and use them all. There is no reason to bring depth for position players except in the case of injury. Cave will be essentially relegated to pinch running duties. Gonzales and Adrianza may only be late inning defensive replacements for Arraez and Sano. You only need two catchers. 13 position players and 15 pitchers seems good to me for a 28 man roster. Now if the roster is 26, then we have to talk cuts.
  25. Minny505
    It sure seems like Arraez was just trying to knock that ball out of the air, not trying to catch it. He rushed the play after that and didn't think the plan all the way thru. He just seemed to recognize that, with the bases loaded, putting that ball on the ground was the right decision.
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