Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects: #1 SS Royce Lewis

Lewis hit .243/.302/.384 (.685 OPS) in 626 PAs at Fort Myers over 2018 and 2019... I just don't know how you can consider him your top prospect when he's looked so bad at the plate and apparently "needs to fix his swing". I know he's young for the league, and I know he's got all the tools outside of that... but isn't a player's ceiling in the majors usually what he did in the minors? 

 

Lewis still has a long ways to go and it's way too early to call him a bust, but I'm concerned. 

He didn't hit well in AA, either (148 PAs).  But boy did he kill it in the AFL in nearly a 100 plate appearances. 

Ft. Myers, of course, is a notoriously unfriendly league to hitters.  This, combined with the low sample size in the other two leagues, suggests we should look at his stat line with a great deal of suspicion.  

Lewis hit .243/.302/.384 (.685 OPS) in 626 PAs at Fort Myers over 2018 and 2019... I just don't know how you can consider him your top prospect when he's looked so bad at the plate and apparently "needs to fix his swing". I know he's young for the league, and I know he's got all the tools outside of that... but isn't a player's ceiling in the majors usually what he did in the minors? 

 

Lewis still has a long ways to go and it's way too early to call him a bust, but I'm concerned.

He also started the season with an oblique injury that probably had something to do with his poor numbers.

He may have had a tough year hitting at A+ and AA, but he sure broke out in the Arizona Fall League.

I have Kirilloff as my number 1 with Lewis second and Larnach a very close third. 

Over the course of the winter and the voting over at TT, have gone towards merging ceiling with the likelihood of the player reaching it.  I think that Lewis has the highest ceiling.  I believe, however, that Kirilloff is more likely to approach/reach his ceiling which is also very high based on his potentially being the best hitter in the organization.  That puts Kirilloff ahead of Lewis in my mind.

His versatility should keep him #1. Falvey values depth. With Lewis we can move a top prospect to 3 or 4 different positions.

I'm still on the Royce Lewis train. the tools are all there, and I love that his speed plays as a baserunner; I'm of the opinion that stolen bases are undervalued in MLB with this focus on station-to-station baseball and home run output. Players who can put pressure on defense with their speed and baserunning have under-valued utility.

the swing is a bit of a concern, but he certainly didn't have any problems with it in the AFL. Let's see how he does with a full year in AA and a little tinkering. A maturing body and plenty of ABs against high value pitchers could be exactly what he needs.

I think the future is really high on him either as a SS or a CF. Anyone who wants him in a deal is going to have to give up a top of the rotation starter under contract/control for more than 1 year. I can live with trading him if the deal is there to really go for the title; I can't live with getting a mid-rotation starter and an A-ball lottery ticket.

Our Rankings:

 

Everyone: #1.

 

Still a fairly easy choice, at least in my opinion... 

Seth -

THANK YOU for the great work on these, as usual.

BTW - you had Lewis as "2019 Ranking: NR" in the article.  

Probably should update that...   :-)

I like Royce for who he is - solid dude.

Unlike several posters, I am on the Royce Lewis bandwagon. I believe he will have a big year in the minors and force his way up.

Same with Kirilloff. Those two studs will not be held down all season.

I think he profiles as a great piece to highlight a trade for that stud pitcher the Twins so desperately need.

There are lots of 5-tool prospects... there aren't a lot of 5-tool MLB players. 

To me, the distinction is between athletic talent (tools) and skills, which are sometimes developed and sometimes not. And sometimes, that tools-to-skills gap remains open through no fault of anyone but the player. Say howdy to Delmon Young for example.

I think that's why in large part talent evaluators pay attention to "makeup".

This is just a huge, huge year for Lewis.

Tools or not, by any metric, he had an awful season (a strike out to walk ratio of 3:1 stands out most to me which really should have nothing to do with the batting in Florida)

The majority of scouting reports that I have seen are concerned about his swing as he moves up in difficulty.

Most, if not all (I'm open to examples) MLB superstars did not endure such a disaster of a season in the low/mid minors.

Yes he is young, yes there was a glimmer of hope in the small sample size of the AFL, yes he is a wonderful human being by all accounts, BUT a sustained poor performance  in A ball IS concerning for an overall#1 pick.

This is SUCH  a big year for him....and I am SO rooting for him!

If he can’t stick at SS then he should have been traded. Second baseman are readily available and we have a better player in CF now

You don't trade him because of his versatility. You can plug a top prospect into 3 or 4 positions. Further, you don't sell low.

 Last season my value in Lewis dropped but being young there`s some maturing that needs to be done. Looks like he`s past that from AFL view. When I saw Donaldson`s video on hitting, I thought WOW! This would be perfect for Lewis. I believe Lewis`s hitting is ready to take off, can`t wait! Twins are weak in depth up the middle, I see Lewis as a valuable asset to help support those areas. His ability to be a super utility player will open a spot on the roster very quickly if he takes that big step

Can you point out when Lewis was banged up last year that caused his bad stats?

Im with you on the stats. Also Lewis strained his oblique last spring training which always seems to take a long time to recover from even when it’s only “mild.” Not sure if it impacted his 2019 stats. Don’t think he ever complained about it during the season, which doesn’t mean it didn’t bother him. No way to know for sure.