Who Solidified Themselves as Playoff Hitters for the Twins, and Who Didn't

Had the Twins managed to get a runner on base for Correa in game 4, I have no doubt there would've been a game 5. Very few hitters I'd rather have up in a big spot.

I do not believe in a "playoff hitter" idea.  I agree that pitching is different, each pitch is so much bigger, and if you do not hit your pitch that will be the difference normally.  Some guys do seem to step up in the playoffs, and maybe some do shrink in the moment, but just having that 1 hit sometimes can make the difference a series, even if you go 0 for the rest that one player may have made the difference. 

Yes, do we want a line up full of Altuve, CC, Alverez, type hitters that seem to always come up big, of course.  However, that just is not going to happen. 

This team will not have success in the playoffs playing homerun. The game is called baseball and they don't play it. If you really watched when Lewis hit the 2 homeruns in game 1 that was his every at bat after that. I you the Phillies and Diamondbacks last night the Diamondbacks played baseball and won. They had been trying to match the Phillies hitting the long ball. The Twins will disappoint again with this FO and manager. They are all back next year.

There are probably some players that could be acquired via trade that would help the Twins but I'm having a hard time finding ones that are actually available. Lars Nootbar would be a nice addition but unlikely to be moved.

Free agent signings are nice but Cody Bellinger is really it besides the DH market. Do the Twins add a guy like Bellinger? Does anyone see the Twins signing an expensive DH or Teoscar Hernandez? I'm not sure that happens.

The Twins did fair in the postseason. The biggest disappointments for me were Jeffers and Wallner. I like them both though. They are still gaining experience and learning. So answering the post, I'm not adding much offense to what is already on the roster.  Yes, the roster is good enough. Juan Soto would be a nice addition, right?

I think it's too small a sample size to really make any significant determinations about most of the Twins hitters.

Royce Lewis is immensely talented and it's wonderful to see him healthy enough to show it. He fears no one and nothing, but will have to keep working to ensure he doesn't expand the strike zone and continue developing his pitch recognition so he doesn't go a-chasin'. But that was on his list regardless of the playoffs (his BABIP this season was awfully high, for example)

We'll see on Julien and Wallner, but there were encouraging signs: both continued to show real patience at the plate, which is impressive for young hitters in pressure situations. Julien did better in making contact, but that's always been the concern for Wallner: will he make enough contact to be a consistent threat? 

Jeffers is interesting: he had a great season overall, and really improved at the plate. He struggled mightily in the playoffs, but it might have just been bad matchups for him, he might have been a little worn down, or it might just be small sample size. His improvement for a full season is more probative than a handful of playoff games to me, but he still needs to show he can sustain his effectiveness against righties.

There's plenty of talent in the lineup to be a playoff contender, but it'll need some better healthy and a little luck. Sounds like baseball.

Great article! I was thinking about this similarly just this morning. And I agree with the overall assessment. Julien, Correa, Royce, and Polo were the only batters who seemed to have a level comfort or even a plan when batting in a pressure situation against playoff-caliber pitching. And, of that group, even Lewis (who had serious success) seemed to press often, as we got closer to elimination. 

For me, the key would be another guy or two who could read the situation and take an at-bat based on it. That could mean taking pitches, not guessing, not swinging for the fences, going with the pitch, reading how they are attacking you, or being aggressive early in the count. Any combo of the above applies pressure to the other team and the pitcher. There just seemed to be too much swinging and hoping for fastball or just swinging and reacting to the pitch. No plan. 

The article rightly notes that Kepler got screwed on a handful of calls. That was brutal, But, from watching those games and his lack of a real approach, I think we can say he is not a cleanup hitter on a playoff team with serious aspirations. As a 6 or 7, great. But, in my opinion, we could use either use a true lefty cleanup hitter (they don't grow on trees) to slot between a healthy Buxton and Correa, or another leadoff hitter (OBP), which would allow Julien to fall back to that spot. 

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Who said anything about forcing a win by using a skill set you might not possess? I didn't say having Jason Tyner try to hit HRs is the best way to win, I said hitting homeruns is. And it's a provable fact. Until you can show a strategy that has a better than 85% win rate then I'm going to stick with hitting homeruns being the best way to win playoff games. 

Don't confuse correlation with causation...

Also, swinging for the fences regardless off the situation IS NOT hitting more home runs.  If it was, the Twins crush the Astros. 

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The data is very clear, you are more likely to score by the HR in the playoffs than getting multiple hits in a row, BECAUSE the pitching is better. It is much harder to get 3 hits in an inning in the playoffs than in the regular season. 

It is also much harder to hit HRs in the playoffs because... the pitching is better than in the regular season. 

Again, trying to hit HRs IS NOT actually hitting them.  In fact trying to hit HRs will lead to decreased production as the Ks rise and lazy pop-ups increase much more rapidly than the runs do.

The Twins teach what I see as not just a flawed approach at the plate, but a fatally flawed one.  I won't  even look up the stats, but I am pretty confident that I can say no team won the world series while setting MLB record for strikeouts.  The results netted a slightly above total of runs scored (yes the ONLY stat that matters for offense) but it is nowhere near consistent enough to feel any confidence.  And 2 or 3 poor offensive games mean your season is done, and if you are honest you have to admit that the Twins struggling against decent pitching is not a surprise, but to be expected regularly with the "swing as hard as you can" approach this version of the Twins preach.  Heck, it doesn't even take decent pitching as they showed last season to utterly shut them down!

How many times did the opposing starter have his season-high strikeout total come against the Twins?

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not, it is causation. Getting on base and hitting for power wins. Top 5 scoring offenses in baseball this year (Braves, LAD, Rangers, Rays, Astros) were 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th in slugging. They were 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 7th in HRs. I don't know why people have such a problem with this. 

Who said anything about swinging for the fences regardless of the situation? Don't put your narrative into what I'm saying. Power wins. It's not some grand mystery. It's simply how it is. OBP and SLG are king. They're what every top offense has. And OBP isn't just taking walks, it's hitting the ball hard. Not just putting it in play by limiting Ks, but by hitting the ball hard. The Twins, and every good offense in baseball, aren't "swinging for the fences regardless of the situation" they're trying to hit the ball hard at all times. Because it's provably the best strategy for scoring runs and winning baseball games.

Cleveland and Washington had the lowest K rates in baseball this year, but they also had some of the worst contact quality in baseball this year so they were 22nd and 23rd in OBP. Because "just putting the ball in play" like so many people want the Twins to do is actually not effective. Get on base and hit for power.

If people were running around saying "the team that gets the most hits in a playoff game wins 85% of the time" or "the team that strikes out the least in a playoff game wins 85% of the time" or "the team that steals the most bases in a playoff game wins 85% of the time" or "the team with the most sac bunts in a playoff game wins 85% of the time" would people be fighting so hard about using those strategies? Nobody is saying to not ever use any other way to try to score, but power is the best way to score runs in baseball. Even more so in the playoffs. I don't get why that idea upsets people so much.

I agree that power is better than no power, but I am  speaking of approach.  And the Twins DO teach a swing hard as you can approach at the plate.  That isn't a debatable point, they are loud and proud about it.  Then end result is team that does not produce regularly, and seems unworried that the team has the same approach in a 0-2 counts as a 2-0 count.

If you think I'm mistaken about this, take a couple hours this weekend to read "The Art of Hitting".  You might have heard of the author...