What Should the Twins Do with Trevor Larnach?

I think we have another year before we HAVE to have this discussion.

If he has an option left, I think we'll be happy to have the depth for 2024 in case of injuries.  If we prove healthy enough to not need him, then trade for pitching.  Seems pretty simple to me.

17 minutes ago, roger said:

None of us knows what the future holds with guys like Larnach.  And Wallner.  Not me, not anyone here at TD, not the players and not the Twins.

The Matt Wallner I see striking out for the Twins certainly hasn't locked down his spot in 2024.  The way Larnach has been playing at AAA is encouraging.  I expect both will be in spring training with the better player opening the season with the Twins.  The other player will be at AAA and likely moved in a trade late in spring training or more likely during the season.

This is what I’m thinking.  Let Larnarch and Wallner compete for the spot next spring but the competition should go on all season in case one of them has a huge slump in the majors.  The other OF gets a chance if earned.  Maybe Lee can play LF instead.

26 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Tom Kelly used to say teams need give a guy 1,000 AB's before you know what you have.  He is still about 350 AB's away from that number.  My feeling is to keep him and give him those AB's at the MLB level so we can see if he can adjust.  As most have said, his value is low anyway so if he improves, then we have a solid corner OF guy or one with more trade value.

I believe this is ideal, but I have no issue if the Twins decide to move on. 

16 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I think we have another year before we HAVE to have this discussion.

If he has an option left, I think we'll be happy to have the depth for 2024 in case of injuries.  If we prove healthy enough to not need him, then trade for pitching.  Seems pretty simple to me.

This. I thought Larnach was out of options after this season, but if he has one remaining there's pretty much no reason for the Twins to move on from him unless they think he's suddenly going to be poison in the locker room in AAA. I expect Kepler to be back until he's actually gone. While Wallner appears to have passed Larnach on the depth chart, it's always possible that Larnach could beat him out in spring training, but he definitely provides good depth against any of the LH OF bats going down with an injury and would make it easier to go into the season with 4 primary OF (say, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, and Martin) and keep guys like Farmer and Polanco on the roster.

There's actually not all that much depth pushing for jobs in the OF in the minors right now outside of Martin (who also can play in the infield) and Larnach (who has struggled mightily against breaking balls in MLB). Severino has little experience in the OF, so from a prospect perspective the next group are A-ball guys like Rosario and Rodriguez who haven't even tasted AA yet. (or walker jenkins, who hasn't left FL) There's real talent rising, but if you take Larnach out of the picture, lock Kirilloff in at 1B (and presume Gallo is gone) the Twins no longer have a huge reservoir of LH corner OFs ready to roll.

Keep Larnach. Have him battle with Wallner for the job. Be ready when someone gets hurt. Worry about dealing anyone at midseason or after 2024.

48 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand the question? He's in AAA as depth. No one is dealing a legit pitching prospect for him at this point. 

Concur.

The Twins should expect around 18 position players to get significant playing time next year. Larnach is valuable depth with that remaining option. I think of Miranda similarly. They both will get an opportunity next year and with that opportunity they can take that step towards being a valuable regular.

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Raya is 21 in A+ with 59 innings he probably isn't a real solution next year, Festa has 90 innings and a 4.39 ERA in AA, again probably not a solution other than a few starts. Paddock is coming off TJ surgury and will be on a innings limit. So in reality there isn't much depth after the starting 4.

Raya has actually been in AA for awhile. And I do think the Twins plan on Paddack to be in the rotation next year. He is ahead of where Maeda was a year ago.

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I would certainly shop Larnach.  He's slid too far down the pecking order to be considered a future starter or even a role player.  Both Kepler and Polanco have made the case to have their options picked up.  But the very real possibility exits that one could be traded.  In my opinion, the player most likely to be dealt is Polanco, especially if he has a strong finish to this season and performs well in the playoffs.  Lewis is here to stay.  Lee will probably break camp with the team in 2024.  With Castro and Farmer coming back, (maybe Gordon or Austin Martin) and if Polanco builds his value back up, I could see Polanco traded for a full time CF or a SP to replace Gray.

If the Twins traded Polanco in a multi player package for a full time CF, depending on how much that guy would cost payroll wise, I could see them sticking their necks out trying to get Sonny Gray to return and have stability in the rotation for next season.  Really, this is what makes the most sense.  You invest in a couple of vets like Lopez and Gray to lead a staff with young talent on the rise, Ryan, Ober, Varland and Paddock.  

Maeda should NOT be retained.  He should no longer be in the conversation for our rotation next year.  He's too inconsistent.  I'd sign him to a team friendly contract as a BP piece, but not as a SP.  

So maybe Larnach is included in a deal with Polanco or maybe each are dealt separately.  But I see the Twins making at least a couple of trades this off season.  

I think the FO will see what they can get for Larnach, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon and Miranda during the offseason.  Castro is better than Gordon and Martin's value is high right now.

3 hours ago, Supfin99 said:

Why do the Twins need to acquire a pitcher for next season?  They have Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober and Varland already penciled in. Festa and Marco Rays will provide depth as well as Woods-Richardson. 

And Randy Dobnak🤫

You make acquisitions by trading from depth.  Larnach is an optimal trade chip:  very unlikely to see time on the Twins, but still has value as a prospect.

Package him for an upgrade or a position of need.

I believe Larnach is out of options after this season, Larnach likely has some trade value for a middle reliever or deep prospect.  Larnach and Gordon are likely gone this off-season and a decision on Miranda also needs to be made.

4 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

The Twins will need to acquire a starter in the off-season, and maybe that involves trading some of the younger guys.  As of now, it would make sense for the Twins to pick up the options for both Kepler and Polanco, and that doesn't leave enough spots for all of the younger guys to get regular playing time.

I was one of the guys calling for Kepler's head...but have been happily proven wrong the past two months.  That said, I'm still not sure he should be with the team next year in order to make room for the youngsters (probably not Larnach).  However, I certainly understand keeping him.  Polanco is another story.  I love the guy and recognize the value he continues to bring...when he is available.  But the years are catching up with Jorge; his injuries are adding up and the Twins have loads of young and veteran infield talent.  I personally feel that the Twins should move on for next year.

Just about every team has one or two players like this - a professional losing prospect who has become and enigma.  They also have scouts and there could be one scout (or more) who thinks Larnach can slay his off-speed demons (a a bad smy other issues)  with just a few adjustments.

In the off-season, the Twins need to find another team’s enigma, who we think can benefit from a few adjustments  Via trade, give Larnach and that other player the proverbial “change of scenery.”  

4 hours ago, Supfin99 said:

Why do the Twins need to acquire a pitcher for next season?  They have Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober and Varland already penciled in. Festa and Marco Rays will provide depth as well as Woods-Richardson. 

Twins didn't NEED a pitcher this year either when they had Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda and Ober ready to go, Varland, SWR, Winder, Balazovic, and Dobnak all in the mix for depth, and Paddack's return looking like a potential midseason boost. I'd say it'd be pretty hard to argue that they didn't end up needing Lopez to end up where they are now.

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Raya has actually been in AA for awhile. And I do think the Twins plan on Paddack to be in the rotation next year. He is ahead of where Maeda was a year ago.

You are correct, he has started 10 games has 25 innings and a 6.12 ERA with 13 walks. I am a big fan of him, but I don't think we will see him at target field until 25.

3 hours ago, Minny505 said:

And Randy Dobnak🤫

He is only 192 days older than Alcala

The FO wouldn't quit Kepler at any point this year, he's a lock. Gordon and Celestino don't belong in a corner OF discussion. Idk what to think about Martin. The turnaround is encouraging, but the track record is pretty bad. I'm not sure he's a guy you're making plans for. Has Wallner done enough to be counted on as a starter in LF? I'd say no.

I'm keeping Larnach. I don't see the point in dealing him at a depressed value, especially when you consider the names blocking him are kinda shaky. 

8 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Tom Kelly used to say teams need give a guy 1,000 AB's before you know what you have.  He is still about 350 AB's away from that number.  My feeling is to keep him and give him those AB's at the MLB level so we can see if he can adjust.  As most have said, his value is low anyway so if he improves, then we have a solid corner OF guy or one with more trade value.

He has an option left.

He's under 1000 MLB AB.

His trade value is low.

It seems obvious what's in store next year. A chance to reclaim his rank.

Besides, have y'all watched the Twins the past 5 years? They're going to need to roster at least 9 outfielders over the course of a full season. This is the first year we didn't see any Ryan LaMarre-types (until September) and I'm thankful for that. Don't clean house on "former prospects" until you have to.

7 hours ago, mickster said:

I think the FO will see what they can get for Larnach, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon and Miranda during the offseason.  Castro is better than Gordon and Martin's value is high right now.

Sure, they may stick their toes in the water. They did last year with Kepler (allegedly). And nobody offered anything of value (presumably).

I would think Kepler's history/consistency would bring more than a fringe/former prospect or utility player.

In other words: you're right. I bet they ask around. But I bet they don't make a move unless it's part of a larger package.

And that's unlikely. This team doesn't need to clear space on the 40-roster. There are several AAAA players they can DFA at any time (Luphlow, Moran, Stevenson, etc). Though I suppose I'm forgetting about the 100 players on the 60-day IL.

With the possible return of Kepler, it doesn't look like he brings anything special to the outfield. The Twins will probably add Keirsey to the 40-man, and if they feel Celestino and Gordon should also stay around, it is getting pretty crowded out there.

And who knows if Kirilloff will be the first baseman, or if the Twins do need to find a place for Julien in the long run (not to mention what to do about Miranda).

Yep, Larnach could be bundled with a prospect or two for a solid relief pitcher or middle rotation arm, perhaps. If teams feel the Twins high draftee shows promise. If the Twins are giving up on him, though, do we jsut try and rebuild his worth?