Twins Forced Into Glimpse of Future Rotation

Good to have solid depth for once. Bad to be two deep into it in the 1st week of May.

Would like to have seen the Twins work something out with Gray but his great start may have caused that ship to sail.

Mahle...Jeez just can't catch a break. Liked that trade at the time. I guess they can't all work out.

I wanted to mention an article on Fan Graphs had imo a pretty glowing take on Luis Varland. Giving him a future Value of 50. The same as Lewis, Julien and Festa.

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland looks like a better starting 5 then we've had in any recent season, besides this one.

I would also expect a veteran added to this mix at some point.  The log jam in the infield with Miranda, Polanco and with, Lewis, Lee, Julien and Martin coming, along with the Larnach, Kepler, Wallner pile up should produce a trade.    I would expect Martin, Kepler and possible Miranda or Wallner to be flipped with Lewis or Julien moving to RF at some point.

Nice reflection.  I join those who think Gray should be signed.  Maeda should be BP when he comes back.  Mahle will collect two years of money and barely see the mound.  Varland is a number 5.  I hope he sticks, but so far I am not ready to commit to him long term. 

Paddack seems to be the one pitcher that many people keep forgetting about. But if he comes back healthy and at full strength, I think he'll be a great addition to the rotation. 

Unfortunate for maeda and mahle  being injured  but a great opportunity for Ober and varland  to develop for the future , will enjoy watching our young arms pitch , and we have SWR  , enlow  and Blaze  still developing  hopefully  to follow  ...

We should not hit the panic button and start moving prospects for pitching this season at this point. If we are patient, we should be in a very favourable budget situation heading into next season. If we can move veteran position players for a solid #4-5, then maybe (but I think that’s doubtful unless Polanco can bring someone of value).

Kepler, Gallo, Polanco, Gray, Mahle, and Maeda are gone next year. They are essentially replaced by Lewis, Julien, Lee, Ober, Varland, and SWR (or others).  That is a lot of cash that has opened up and should be enough to pick up at least one, if not two, solid #2-4 types.

Patience is the key at the moment. We are building for a multiple year open window - no reason to jeopardise that to save bad bets on Mahle and Maeda with this current lineup.

2 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland looks like a better starting 5 then we've had in any recent season, besides this one.

that does look like a solid 1-5, but I still wanna see the team get another high-end starter, hopefully an Ace. Lopez looks like a #2, Ryan Looks like a #3, and Ober looks like a #4 in a great playoff rotation. We need someone who can be that #1, because the 2/3/4 is very good, and the Twins still have a lot of depth options lined up for next year.

Love this discussion.  Add me to the list of those who aren't certain Gray will be gone next year.  Yes, we would have Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, Ober and Varland.  But there isn't a lot of depth following those five.  SWR, yes. but then who?

I will be surprised if the Twins don't at a minimum do a QO with Gray.  Will he take it?  Don't know, but would love to see the Twins try to keep him with either the QO or signing an extension at or before year end.

I am still not sold that the trade for Lopez was a win win. Lopez has been ok, but the Twins really need hitting help that they traded away.

Over the long season is a pitcher that pitches every 5 days worth more wins than a very good hitter that plays everyday. I really think the Twins would have a better record this year without that trade since they are just not getting enough hits to win games. 

The Twins certainly expected they would be getting more hits from their current players, but so far that has just not happened.  Either the manager or hitting coach has to work with batters so they stop swinging at so many pitches out of the strike zone. Other teams know our batters are swinging at bad pitches so they will have their pitchers throw more pitches out of strike zone and fewer pitches in strike zone. With fewer good pitches to hit the Twins will continue to have more poor at bats.

46 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Paddack seems to be the one pitcher that many people keep forgetting about. But if he comes back healthy and at full strength, I think he'll be a great addition to the rotation. 

He has not helped the Twins and would be surprised if he ever did. That trade turned out to be a bad trade for the Twins.

Of the four aspects of baseball (pitching, batting, fielding, and base running) pitching has always been and will always be the most important. The other three aspects tend to manifest themselves on highlight videos whereas pitching tends to manifest itself in the standings. Regarding our current team, I think our batting will improve over what it has been so far this year. We haven't been hitting well but we're in first place in spite of that and I think we have a good shot at staying there.

The development of Ober and Varland is being tested right now, so far so good. I'm thinking the Twins will be in a solid position to add one significant starting pitcher at the trade deadline or in the off season. P. Lopez, J. Ryan, B. Ober, L. Varland, S. Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick, and C. Paddack are a fair seven, which allows the Twins to aim high in any consideration of additional guys for the rotation. 

I do not expect either Maeda or Mahle back next year unless they are on very very inexpensive contracts. Sonny Gray looks outstanding right now and it sure would be awesome if he can make his run last all the way through the playoffs. Gray deserves to look around in free agency. The Twins will not sign him for 2/$50 million due to injury risks and because if Gray has a good year and avoids injury he is looking at 3/$65 million at a minimum and likely more money and/or years. The best the Twins can hope for is the draft choice from offering a qualifying offer.

51 minutes ago, roger said:

Love this discussion.  Add me to the list of those who aren't certain Gray will be gone next year.  Yes, we would have Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, Ober and Varland.  But there isn't a lot of depth following those five.  SWR, yes. but then who?

I will be surprised if the Twins don't at a minimum do a QO with Gray.  Will he take it?  Don't know, but would love to see the Twins try to keep him with either the QO or signing an extension at or before year end.

I think the Twins 98% offer Gray the QO, but I'm pretty sure that he'll decline it unless he suffers a major injury (in which case the Twins probably don't have it on the table). With his track record and the way he's pitching so far this season, I find it unlikely someone won't offer Gray 3 years and $20M+ AAV. Twins would be thrilled if he takes the QO, but I don't think they'll be too upset if they get back a compensatory pick at the end of the 1st round. That's pretty good business for Chase Petty: 2 years of Sonny Gray and a pick for a teenage pitcher who hasn't thrown an inning yet in 2023?

After SWR it definitely gets thinner on the developmental list, which is almost certainly why they extended Paddack like they did. Headrick is a possibility, and then we're looking at guys who aren't out of AA yet. (Laweryson, Winder, and Balazovic are starting to look like bullpen options, although Balazovic could still move back over to the rotation) But on the good side, a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack is also a rotation without a single player over the age of 30.

I agree that part varland's task this season is to keep the ball in the park, but he also just needs to be less hittable generally. he's done a great job growing his K-rate, and where he sits on his walks is sustainable...but you probably can't survive for long giving up a hit per inning. That's one of the things that's really impressed with Ober. He's not hunting Ks at the same rate as some other guys, but he's also been tougher to hit. Gives him a little more room to maneuver if he's fighting his command during a start.

1 hour ago, roger said:

Love this discussion.  Add me to the list of those who aren't certain Gray will be gone next year.  Yes, we would have Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, Ober and Varland.  But there isn't a lot of depth following those five.  SWR, yes. but then who?

I will be surprised if the Twins don't at a minimum do a QO with Gray.  Will he take it?  Don't know, but would love to see the Twins try to keep him with either the QO or signing an extension at or before year end.

He will definitely receive at least the QO from the Twins. Sonny will get an offer at least comparable to what Chris Bassitt got (3/63) on the FA market so it would take that to keep him.  

9 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Paddack seems to be the one pitcher that many people keep forgetting about. But if he comes back healthy and at full strength, I think he'll be a great addition to the rotation. 

I thought that about Maeda too.  With his injury history and lack of pitching he is just another name for me and I have no expectations - just hope. 

2 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

We thought that about Maeda too.  With his injury history and lack of pitching he is just another name for me and I have no expectations - just hope. 

agreed, he hasn't had an ERA under 4 since 2019 and hasn't pitched more than 110 innings since then. I don't see him being a full time unlimited starter until 25.

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

We thought that about Maeda too.  With his injury history and lack of pitching he is just another name for me and I have no expectations - just hope. 

That's certainly fair. I do think he's a reasonable veteran choice to be competing for the 5th spot in the rotation for '24/'25 though, at a pretty reasonable price, and he was solid enough for the back end of the rotation before his elbow exploded last year. As a bridge option while others advance in the lower minors, he seems a fair pick?

Brett Headrick appears to be another large factor. The big lefty has shown a very pleasing ability to get hitters out quickly. He should get many more opportunities at the mlb level.  Chris Paddack's star has dimmed considerably since first I saw him pitch for the Padres. Now I'm wondering if he'll have enough velocity and durability to be a starter at all, or just another arm in the pen. If his heater doesn't revive, he's a middling reliever. 

To me the next up now is Headrick and SWR. Then Balasovic. Of them, Headrick looks the most ready to become a starter.

This is a great discussion.  I for one am excited to see Ober and Varland get an extended look to see what we've got.  I don't think we're going to get much from Maeda or Mahle this season and I'd be surprised if either were with the Twins next year.  I see the Twins either making a trade for an impact SP before the deadline this season (not sure yet who that would be) and if there is no deadline deal, the Twins looking at a top of the rotation SP for 2024 and beyond either in free agency (which would be EXPENSIVE) or another trade.  I would extend Sonny Gray a Q.O. but what he's doing now (while wonderful) I don't see him sustaining.

Not saying who that #1 SP would be either (that's a good topic for speculation later this season).  I think the plan for this FO has always been to pitch and play close games.  That got kind of messed up after 2019's "Bomba Squad."  But I think this FO wants to build a solid and deep pitching staff.  There are several young hitters that should be having an impact this year and next in Lewis, Julien and Lee and Rodriguez not too far behind.  

I'd also love to see Gray re-signed on a 3yr deal for around $60-66M. I might even prorate the first couple of years to make the last year more palatable if/when he slides. But absolutely the QO.

Huge fan of Ober. Tremendous respect and admiration for Maed, but Ober is the better arm now, and part of the rotation the next few years. Hard to say Varland is better than Mahle, so I won't. But I think Varland has a nice career ahead of him. As of today he's got what, 6 or 7 ML starts and all have been solid to good save one. And two of them were on the road at Yankee stadium. A couple bad 1st innings hurt him this season, but then he settled down after that. I believe that shows maturity. 

Paddack has a chance to be at least solid, if not good, when he comes back next season. And he's young enough and talented enough to do so. But he could also never be the same. I don't have him written in ink for 2024 the way I do Ober, and probably Varland. All the more reason I'd love Gray back.

SWR looks like he's getting pretty close. Headrick has really impressed me, but my gut says solid back end starter and potentially excellent pen arm. Will be interesting to see. And Balazovic has been looking really good so far in 2023, first from the pen, and now in his first start. Enlow and Festa have a really good shot at finishing the season at AAA this year. Any, or all, of those guys provide 2nd half depth here in 2023, even though there are reasons to be optimistic Maeda and Mahle are both back in a couple months, or less for Maeda, to continue to help this year. 

I kinda like where the Twins are sitting right now, but we'll know more at the end of the season. Is it possible the depth of talent on hand will be enough foe an equally good rotation in 2024 even if Gray isn't brought back? Perhaps. But again, the overall picture will be more clear at the end of the season.

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

That's certainly fair. I do think he's a reasonable veteran choice to be competing for the 5th spot in the rotation for '24/'25 though, at a pretty reasonable price, and he was solid enough for the back end of the rotation before his elbow exploded last year. As a bridge option while others advance in the lower minors, he seems a fair pick?

To my knowledge he is not signed beyond 23. 

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

To my knowledge he is not signed beyond 23. 

Actually, his extension carries him through 2025. He is scheduled to be  FA in 2026 at this time.

16 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

To my knowledge he is not signed beyond 23. 

it's a pretty cheap deal: $2.5M for next season and $7.5M for 2025. relatively low risk for the Twins.