Trying to Get a Reed on Addison

Clever headline and nice analysis.

It's very easy to say that Reed (and Pressly) are suffering from Molitor Abuse. As will Hildy if Molitor switches his focus to him. Then again it's easy to say that Reed is simply losing it. But it's more likely a combination of the two. An astute MOY would realize that one good Reed outing is better than two bad ones. This pattern of overuse is not recent, driven by the need to remain in 'the race'. He burned out relievers in 2015 also, in the race for the first draft choice. I think that the high pitch counts for SP, and the 100 pitch plateau is causing a lot of stress on bullpens, making decisions on how to distribute innings more complicated, and more impactful. And the implications of the decisions even more obvious.

It's the age-old story. Velocity x Command = Effectiveness. As V goes down, C better go up, or E will go down rapidly. Unfortunately, over Time, both V and C tend to go down, unless you add a new pitch, Pn. This gives

((VC)Pn)/T = E

Clearly Reed's V and C have been suffering, along with over-use, U+. Thus

((VC)Pn)/(T+U) = E

Age-old story.

 

 

The problem however is, the still he likely is the best pitcher in this pen

This right here. This is why this is a problem. We just don't have enough bullpen depth where we can sit someone like Reed for a while and throw others out there to eat up some innings.

I think we do have enough bullpen depth, its just that some of it is in Rochester.

Eh, pitchers go through hot/cold streaks. Not worried. (Though Molitor doesn't have to have him pitch 5 of every 7 days in tight situations as he works through it.)

I think we do have enough bullpen depth, its just that some of it is in Rochester.

I am not sure it is a depth issue.

Molitor needs to realize that the starters as a team are averaging less than 5 2/3, and he needs a plan every night for the bullpen to pitch 3 to 5 innings. IMO he doesn't go into the game with that plan and reacts to the game situation and puts Pressley and Reed in almost every game. Then Duke and Hildy fill the gaps.

Why have not have a plan for Magil to pitch the 5th and/or 6th in games Odorizzi and Romero start or something other than the starter gets in trouble in the 5th bring in Pressly to finish that inning start the 6th, matchup up Duke and Hildy for the 7th, Reed 8th every game and hope Rodney saves the game.

During Reed's last outing, the 4-run eighth inning against Detroit, his fastball was clocking in at 89-90 mph while his slider was at 84-85. Not much difference in velocity between those pitches. Perhaps if Reed is losing fastball velocity, he needs to work on more separation between those pitch speeds to keep hitters off balance?

Does he have anything besides fastball/slider??

After watching him the past couple of weeks I've come up with a nickname: Additive Reed: He makes their offense go.

In Reed's most recent failure, his FB was at 90.

In Pressly's last bad outing he blew away the first batter - striking him out on 3 pitches that featured 97 MPH Heat. For whatever reason, he then went to curves and sliders which the opposition teed off on. Whether it was Pressly calling off the catcher's signs or the catcher calling a bad game: when you are throwing at 97 you keep feeding them that until they show that they can hit it. Don't back away from your best pitch trying to be cute.

I think that there is an issue with managing the new system - relief pitchers were not regularly schedule from inning 5 on and while a few bullpens have accumulated the arms to handle that demand, there are not enough to go around. I do not envy Molitor. If we need at least four RP per game, Taylor, Belisle, Magill, Duke, Pressly, Hildenberger, Rodney, Reed, and Pressly. We do not want to overuse them so which ones do we use. Put four together and then another four and then another four. No one is going to pitch 9 so we have to keep calling on them. Yes we have good arms in the minors, but to do it right we have to keep calling them up and sending them down. This era has created a problem, but no answer. I do not blame Molly for this.

But you just suggested a solution: take advantage of your player options to extend the number of available arms in your pen. We have a number of available major league capable arms who can be shuttled in and out and kept fresh. Problem is when they're called up, Molly doesn't use them anyway. More often them not, it seems they're sent back down to get some work rather than switch out for a fresh arm.

This isn’t a complicated issue at all. Molitor strictly adheres to the magic 100 pitch count notion, even if a starter is at something like 5.2 IP and only allowed one run. He very, very rarely stretches the starters beyond that. Whatever batter faces the 100th pitch, that’s the last batter the starter sees. So our bullpen, especially Reed, is horrendously overtaxed.

The Twins rightfully were applauded for making a ton of offseason moves, but nearly all were considered bargains. Now with all the data readily available to all teams it's not like the Twins can see something that other teams don't. I think the Twins are going to have to realize that waiting for bargains isn't the way to go, they're going to have to start overpaying for the guys who are truly difference makers.

I have to agree with that. Most of the time those "bargains" were that way for a reason ... or three. If they Twins want to compete with the elite teams they will have to either draft better/wiser, or dish out more money for the top tier free agents.

It's very easy to say that Reed (and Pressly) are suffering from Molitor Abuse. As will Hildy if Molitor switches his focus to him. Then again it's easy to say that Reed is simply losing it. But it's more likely a combination of the two. An astute MOY would realize that one good Reed outing is better than two bad ones. This pattern of overuse is not recent, driven by the need to remain in 'the race'. He burned out relievers in 2015 also, in the race for the first draft choice. I think that the high pitch counts for SP, and the 100 pitch plateau is causing a lot of stress on bullpens, making decisions on how to distribute innings more complicated, and more impactful. And the implications of the decisions even more obvious.

I concur. 

While ARE's usage stats are in line with previous seasons, he is a year older every year-- the body simply needs more recovery time as it ages. Couple that with the fact that not only are ARE and RPE being overused in the same spots again and again, blowing leads again and again, there seems to be no recognition on the part of the MoY that maybe we should try something different this game, or the next.

Same script, same results, same string of losses to whom we previously considered inferior teams. Especially so when the offense is as offensive as it has been, those late innings are unfortunately crucial nearly every time out these days.

So what if we have to bounce Duff, Curtiss, Busenitz, et.al. back and forth a few times? It gives them a taste, too, and gives those other guys the break they need here and there. Plenty of other teams do it. Get the hot hand in Roch up in the Cities. If he fries some late innings, well, bump him back down, and he knows what he needs to work on going forward. At least if we're giving away games, let's do it with some potential benefit.

I'm just speculating, but Ozzie Guillen would probably do it that way.

Pressly is still on pace to appear in almost 90 games. No one in MLB appeared in even 80 last year. Last year the highest game total was Rogers’ 69 and the most bullpen innings were Duffey’s 71. The Twins have THREE guys on pace to pitch over 70 bullpen innings. Molitor actually eased up last week. Of course, part of that was some non-competitive games. Going into last week, the situation was even more ridiculous.

Part of the problem could be that the Twins have been in a ton of close late games this year. It hasn't helped that they have come on the wrong side of many of those games. The Twins need to bust out and blow a few teams out of the water to get guys like Magil in there more often. If they had won more of those close 1 run games they'd be in a much better spot. So hopefully they can have a few more of those 9 - 3 games like the other day so as to rest those bullpen guys like Pressly, Hildy, Reed etc...

Part of the problem could be that the Twins have been in a ton of close late games this year. It hasn't helped that they have come on the wrong side of many of those games. The Twins need to bust out and blow a few teams out of the water to get guys like Magil in there more often. If they had won more of those close 1 run games they'd be in a much better spot. So hopefully they can have a few more of those 9 - 3 games like the other day so as to rest those bullpen guys like Pressly, Hildy, Reed etc...

Or maybe use Magill in those closer games until he proves he isn’t capable of doing so?

The guys Molitor is using now are already losing games. What difference does it make if it is Reed losing or Magill?

I would join you with the bullpen being on management. However, I don’t think the data supports an option problem. Duffey, Slegers, Busenitz, Curtis, Moya, Littell and Magill have been optioned one way or the other. Additionally I think Rogers and Hildenberger still have options.

I think the problem is lack of talent relative to contending teams.

That might stem from...

- Inability to recognize and utilize talent of minor leaguers

- inability to develop that talent

- poor assessment of the talents of veteran free agents

- poor use of the talent at the major league level

Certainly any expectation that Kinley and Hughes would contribute to an effective bullpen of a contending team was unreasonable.

Or maybe use Magill in those closer games until he proves he isn’t capable of doing so?

 

The guys Molitor is using now are already losing games. What difference does it make if it is Reed losing or Magill?

Yeah, I think that they need to use all 7 - 8 arms in the pen, no sense in using the same 3 or 4 all the time. On pace for 90 games is a lot.