The Big Question in Right Field for the Twins: Has Max Kepler Learned His Lesson(s)?

He is auditioning for free agency and a huge contract next year.  I expect his usual top level D and a big year with the bat.

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This should be an interesting thread.

Hitting the ball hard and in the air is good even if it leads to a slight (don't ignore me saying slight when you yell at me about Ks) increase in Ks. It's what all the best hitters in baseball do (outside of the extreme outlier Arraez).

I think I'll take a pass on this thread on my usual rants against SO's. Go Twins! 

Max Kepler is a puzzle to me (and to everyone else, the Twins, and probably to himself).  He has had basically 2 seasons of being really good and several seasons of being just barely OK and needing to play defense exceptionally enough to keep his job.  He seems to be a smart and dedicated guy as well.  So it seems crazy that his issue with hitting is some sort of conscious decision to try to hit in a way that will produce bad results.  I don’t really think he’s dense enough or stubborn enough or egotistical enough to do that.  Yet, last year in the middle of one of the worst stretches of his career, he catches fire and hits like crazy for 2/3 of a season.  Was there an unreported injury?  Did he take it upon himself be the guy who would single-handedly cure the team strikeout problem?  Was he trying too hard?  Good Max is great.  Bad Max is not.  Go Good Max!!! And don’t listen to anyone (even yourself) who suggests you change anything from last year’s approach. 

48 minutes ago, CRF said:

There's no question about his defense, it's what he does at the plate, that needs stay at the same level as what he did the second half of last season. If he can do that, he's worthwhile. If he reverts to what he did in the first half last season, then he needs to ride some pine. I honestly thought he'd get traded this off season. I don't think his value had ever been higher. I do think he's finally a goner...either at the deadline, or after this season. No way they give him another contract.

Someone will offer him the keys to the fault.  It wont be the Twins.

The shift was not banned. It's frustrating to see misleading statements in print so often. The shift was limited. FWIW, no player had a bigger discrepancy between xBA and real batting average than Max Kepler, and teams employed shifts against Kepler more frequently than any other hitter in MLB prior to last year as I recall. The shifting absolutely hurt Kepler's production at the plate, arguably more than any other player in MLB. 

Teams didn't stop shifting against Kepler last year, either. Fangraphs recorded plate appearances as 32 (No shift) 280 (Shift). Teams still shifted against Kepler literally 90% of the time. The 10% they didn't were almost certainly times when there were runners on base.

Kepler talked about a strategy of just trying to hit the ball over the infield (in the air) to try and bypass the shift altogether. It helps, but Kepler's production will likely always be hindered at least somewhat by the shift. I'm not sure what to expect from Kepler going forward given the fact Kepler put up career high barrel rates, average exit velocity and hard hit rates last year. Clearly other MLB teams aren't sold on Kepler's turn around or he wouldn't be on the team at this point as somebody would have offered Falvey a return which couldn't be ignored this past offseason. 

Here's hoping Kepler tears it up this year. There's still even more ceiling in his game at the plate than what he's shown, but if he goes back to bouncing batted balls off the ground again, it's just going to be another quality regular starting position player season for him. 2 WAR floor 2.5-3.0 WAR good year, 4 WAR ceiling.

This may sound odd, but I think we may have had good Kepler all year last year.  He struggled coming back from an IL stint in late May for the hamstring and apparently had a heart to heart with Rocco mid season but it also matches recovery from a hamstring. 

The mention of launch angle reminded me of a post I made last season, May 7th to be exact.  I don't post it to boast, because I also was ready to give up on Max midseason and had forgotten, but because I wanted to look back at the numbers I had snipped. 

When compared to the year end numbers everything is stable, still well up from his best years and the launch angle came around.  Barrel, Hard Hit and Sweet spot % were all career highs, just as they were pacing in early May.  My theory at the time was that the lack of launch angle was hurting production and that he was actually playing very well at the time.  He immediately followed my proclamation with 6 horrible weeks and I felt dumbish.

I'm starting to look at 2023 Kepler as a solid overall season with a horrible stretch in May and June that in hindsight was probably highly effected by the IL stint for the hamstring from 05/13 - 05/29.  I think its probably more accurate than crappy first half, amazing second half.  He's a very good baseball player.

22 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Max Kepler is a puzzle to me (and to everyone else, the Twins, and probably to himself).  He has had basically 2 seasons of being really good and several seasons of being just barely OK and needing to play defense exceptionally enough to keep his job.  He seems to be a smart and dedicated guy as well.  So it seems crazy that his issue with hitting is some sort of conscious decision to try to hit in a way that will produce bad results.  I don’t really think he’s dense enough or stubborn enough or egotistical enough to do that.  Yet, last year in the middle of one of the worst stretches of his career, he catches fire and hits like crazy for 2/3 of a season.  Was there an unreported injury?  Did he take it upon himself be the guy who would single-handedly cure the team strikeout problem?  Was he trying too hard?  Good Max is great.  Bad Max is not.  Go Good Max!!! And don’t listen to anyone (even yourself) who suggests you change anything from last year’s approach. 

Max got off to a slow start this spring but is starting to hit now. I just hope he gets off to a hot start thus year because he seems to let failure get into his head and prolongs his slumps. I guess you you could say that about a lot of players though.