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Many viewed the Twins' bullpen as a strength heading into this season, which was reasonable given the strong group at the top: Jhoan Duran, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar. While those guys are excellent, it seemed clear that for the bullpen to shine, it needed improved performances from a combination of Emilio Pagán, Jovani Moran, or Jorge Alcala. If they didn't step it up, an injury to one of the top four could be catastrophic, and beyond the injury concerns, a team needs more than four reliable relievers to succeed.
While the Twins may have uncovered a hidden gem in Brock Stewart, it does not seem enough for the bullpen to thrive, with none of Pagán, Moran, or Alcala inspiring much confidence and Thielbar injured for now. The Twins are 23rd in relief pitcher xFIP in all of baseball, indicating they are lucky to be 12th in relief pitcher ERA.
On Wednesday, the group's apparent weakness reared its ugly head when the Twins had a one-run lead over the Dodgers, with seemingly none of the back four available. Without their services available, Twins fans were subjected to a familiar sight- Pagán blowing the lead via a home run- in this case, a grand slam.
With the lack of bullpen depth and the mystifying decision to bring him back, Pagán blowing a game isn't a shock. Many analysts advocated that the Twins add a reliever in free agency, but they chose not to sign a single reliever on a major league contract. That decision begs the question: how are the free-agent relievers doing in 2023? Could they have improved the Twins' bullpen?
The Expensive Signings ($10 million+ AAV)
This Twins front office has been reluctant to invest financially in the free agent reliever market, and when they have done it, it yielded poor results. Relievers can be highly volatile, so investing large sums of money in them is risky, but it can certainly pay off.
The 2023 free agent class had six pitchers sign $10 million per year contracts or more- four of those signings being for multiple years. The four pitchers who received multiyear contracts are Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, Rafael Montero, and Taylor Rogers. David Robertson and Craig Kimbrel each signed a one-year, $10 million deal. Diaz suffered a season-ending injury celebrating at the World Baseball Classic after becoming the first $100 million reliever, and Montero was resigned quickly by Houston. Rogers, Jansen, Kimbrel, and Robertson are the only four of the group who were seemingly available to the Twins and with any performance to evaluate in 2023.
Rogers, Kimbrel, and Jansen have all been underwhelming- with ERAs of 4.72, 6.60, and 4.26. However, all have produced batted ball metrics indicating they've been above average but unlucky- with Jansen having an outstanding xERA of 3.06. He's probably the only of the three that would've been a worthwhile investment- but $32 million over two years is expensive for somebody with a 4.26 ERA- regardless of the underlying numbers.
Robertson, on the other hand, has been one of the best relievers in the league. He's posted a dazzling 0.95 ERA with a 98th percentile xERA of 2.03. All that for $10 million is certainly worth it. It's an improvement on last season but not particularly surprising because he was also one of the better relievers in 2022. If not priced out, the Twins should have been at least interested in Robertson's services- and he would have improved the current bullpen.
Middle-Priced Options (Less Than $10 Million AAV)
This group of relievers is much larger and not necessarily worth discussing in individualized detail. Still, it is worthwhile to see what options would've worked out and which might've been failed signings had the Twins brought them.
The group of pitchers who have been successful in 2023 in this price range is surprisingly large. Matt Moore, Adam Ottavino, Carlos Estevez, Andrew Chafin, Chris Martin, and even Aroldis Chapman have all been at least well above average by xERA. Assuming their performance would be the same for the Twins, all of those pitchers would have massively improved the Twins' bullpen. It's also unsurprising that Moore and Chafin are thriving- given their strong 2022 seasons.
Admittedly, a few relievers signed in this price range have been poor or injured- so the Twins would have had to choose the right guy. But, surprisingly, at least so far, most of the relief pitchers signed for between $3 million and $10 million have had strong 2023 seasons, so it would have been hard to miss. Michael Fulmer, Pierce Johnson, and Trevor May (who was awful before getting injured) would have hurt this bullpen group. Still, it seems the Twins, had they spent Pagán's $3.5 million or more on a different reliever, would have helped a group that needs it.
Consequences of Not Signing at Least One Reliever
Choosing not to invest heavily in the bullpen via free agency has been a constant throughout the current regime's tenure. However, signing zero relievers to a major league deal is a new extreme. By choosing not to add bullpen depth, the Twins likely will lose a few extra games between now and the trade deadline, which could be costly for a team gunning for the playoffs.
Further, barring breakouts from internal options or waivers, they will need to trade for at least one reliever at the deadline. Any trade will cost them prospect capital, and they'll have to pay a couple of months of that pitcher's salary anyway. The cost at the deadline to add needed bullpen help will likely be steeper than it would have been this winter. It is clear now that not adding a single reliever was a mistake, but it remains to be seen just how costly.
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- DocBauer and nclahammer
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