Reason to Believe Brusdar Graterol Could Start 2020 in Twins Rotation

Tremendous perspective in this article.  I am looking for the Twins to move Graterol, and later, Balazovic quickly to MLB.  Duran will depend upon whether he can master some control/command this year. 

Soroka is NOT the only example of really young players getting a shot and essentially skipping unnecessary time in MiLB, and saving their 'bullets' for MLB; which is what matters.  If he proves he cannot handle it, there is always opportunity to send him down for some focus and clean-up.  I am tired of watching the Twins wreck young pitching prospects by leaving them down on the farm until they blow up, or monkeying with them too much (Romero).  It is cheaper to have 1-2 spots rely on younger pitchers, which would allow for one Top signing.  

In order of importance in MN Twins history:

1) Service Time

2) Wins

He won't be making the club out of spring training, that much is guaranteed.

Interesting comparison, especially how Soroka pitched only 30 innings a year ago.  

None of us know what the guys that will make these decisions are thinking.  There is a chance, however, that they may be counting on one of their young starters taking one of those open spots in the rotation.  Could it be Graterol?  Certainly.  But it also could be Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, or even long shots like Stewart or Gonsalves (assuming they are still Twins come spring training).

If it is Graterol, I could see him paired with another starter (Thorpe? Smeltzer?) and pitching only 3-4 innings each start so that he ends the season around 120 innings. 

Should they bring back Pineda, expect one or two of these young guns will get the opportunity to show their stuff the first six weeks of the season.  

Soroko has and used three effective pitches. His change up was effective entering the season. The change up is the striking difference between the two.

From May 21- look at the layover of his three pitches

https://mobile.twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1130797255060070400

From April 29

https://www.pitcherlist.com/mike-sorokas-changeup-and-the-nastiest-pitches-from-4-29/

We didn’t see any evidence of a major league ready third pitch or change up from Graterol. Until he shows that third pitch I don’t think we can compare him to Soroka even if his age and minor league stats are comparable.

Without a major league ready third pitch the options would be to send him to AAA or give up on making him a starter and put him in the bullpen to start the season.

There will likely be several starters at Rochester with major league experience.  In addition to Graterol, this could include Smeltzer, Thorpe, Dobnak, Stewart and Gonsalves.  Unless one sticks with the Twins as a regular starter, I see all of them getting major league time just like last year.  Get called up as the 8th reliever in the bullpen for long outings.  Then after pitching, sent back to Rochester as a starter with someone else called up.  

I like this as it accomplishes three things that are important for most of these young guys.  One, it gives them major league experience.  Two, it also limits their innings as they will be pitching only 3 or 4 innings while with the Twins for a week or so.  And three, it gives them a major league check for whatever number of games they are with the Twins.  That's a lot of extra cash for most of these guys.

Minor leagues are overrated. I fully believe MLB waste arms in the minors. Let talented kids learn in the big leagues if they're able. Only so much you can learn in the minors.

Let the kid pitch, and send him down to work on specific things if he's unable to perform in the MLB. So many bad old pitchers are allowed to toil in this league, while young guys like Dobnak are constantly buried in the minors.

Interesting comparison, thanks.

I’d love to see a Graterol/Smeltzer combo for the 5th starter slot. Good way to build innings gradually and they compliment each other nicely.

I've been saying that for years, but he's not going to succeed without a third pitch.

Succeed is relative. If the pitch is close to being ready, a guy with his arm talent can get pretty far while working on things. League average era was 4.5 in 2019, likely to go down next year. If he could maintain that level, I fully believe he belongs with the twins. Berrios was allowed a good leash when he came up, that is the best way to learn.

I've been saying that for years, but he's not going to succeed without a third pitch.

Agree it will be tough to succeed as a starter without a good third pitch, Mike.  But he could be very successful as a reliever with the two plus, plus pitches he has.

If he shows (with his pitch mix not stats) he is ready in spring start him in the rotation. If not, give him more time to develop in AAA instead of using him in the major league pen.

I think you give him a legit shot at a rotation spot in spring training. I dont think holding him back will help him that much, these guys need to come up and see what it's like at the MLB level in order to be prepared. So if he earns it, let him start the beginning of the year in Pineda's spot if the twins re-sign him. Once he struggles then send him down. Give him a taste, if he earns it, I mean if he gets lit up in SP T. Then you have your answer. If he mows people down give him that shot. They need to be able to at some point trust the guys in their system.

Soroko has and used three effective pitches. His change up was effective entering the season. The change up is the striking difference between the two.

From May 21- look at the layover of his three pitches

https://mobile.twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1130797255060070400

From April 29

https://www.pitcherlist.com/mike-sorokas-changeup-and-the-nastiest-pitches-from-4-29/

We didn’t see any evidence of a major league ready third pitch or change up from Graterol. Until he shows that third pitch I don’t think we can compare him to Soroka even if his age and minor league stats are comparable.

Without a major league ready third pitch the options would be to send him to AAA or give up on making him a starter and put him in the bullpen to start the season.

That's NOT accurate.  He has a plus 4 seam fastball (as high as 103), a plus two seam sinker (as high as 101), and a wipe-out slider.  They are working on his change-up.  This IS 3 pitches, and they are working on the 4th.  Have you ever seen a 100+mph sinker?  There might have been 1-2 prior, but it is clearly a 3rd pitch, as the bottom literally drops out. 

That's NOT accurate. He has a plus 4 seam fastball (as high as 103), a plus two seam sinker (as high as 101), and a wipe-out slider. They are working on his change-up. This IS 3 pitches, and they are working on the 4th. Have you ever seen a 100+mph sinker? There might have been 1-2 prior, but it is clearly a 3rd pitch, as the bottom literally drops out.

I dunno, in most of the appearances I saw, it was hard to argue he had more than 1 mlb ready pitch, and hitters can catch up to heat pretty well at that level. Control was an issue. He mostly sat high 90s not 103. Didn't generate lots of swinging strikes. His "wipe out" slider ducked out of the zone every time. I recall 1 outing where it was genuinely effective. He's got a chance, but he needs to get significantly better at pitching. His MiLB numbers are really good. But not MLB ace good.