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Part of Cron’s decline could certainly be attributed to the thumb injury he suffered in early July which has landed him on the 10-day IL twice. His offensive numbers have been way down and Cron has hit more ground balls and fly balls than line drives, which seemed to power his first half surge. His line drive percent has gone down from 24.3% in the first half to 17.5% since. Cron has also seemed to have had trouble catching up with fastballs of late. He has whiffed on nearly 35% of fastballs so far in August.
Whether watching Cron play or looking at the numbers, it is becoming abundantly clear that he should not be an everyday player at this point in the season. This begs the question of whether there is a better player to trot out to first base. In actuality, there may be several.
As referenced in the opening paragraph, Cron has hit lefties very well, so he should continue to see playing time when the Twins face left-handed pitching. But the majority of MLB starting pitchers are righties and we have seen that Cron shouldn’t be in the lineup in this scenario.
However, Minnesota doesn’t really have any left-handed options to platoon with Cron, as the best 1B options appear to be either right-handed hitters in Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver, or switch hitters who hit better against lefties in Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza. Technically, left-hand hitting catcher Jason Castro played about 11 innings of first base when he was with the Astros, but he seems unlikely to play first at this point. The Twins could also get aggressive and call up left-handed AA OF/1B top-prospect Alex Kirilloff, but that would start his service-time clock and coming up and playing a big role in such a crucial stretch of games is asking a lot from the 21-year-old.
Of the players already on the 25-man roster, Sano seems to be the best option to slide over to first. Sano is a below average defender at third and his long-term home will most likely be at first base anyway. If the Twins non-tender Cron after this season, Sano is probably the most likely internal option to take over at first, so he could gain additional experience now and the Twins would get an extended look as well.
Sano certainly seems to enjoy hitting as a first baseman. In an admittedly small sample size (seven games), Sano has hit .360/.448/.720, good for a 200 wRC+. For what it’s worth, Sano’s defense at first has also rated better than Cron’s (again -small sample size). Sano’s splits against righties are also significantly better than Cron’s (112 wRC+ vs. 80 wRC+).
For the time being, this would mean that Ehire Adrianza would get more playing time at third with Marwin Gonzalez currently splitting time in right field with Jake Cave. Once Buxton comes back, the Twins would have the luxury of using Gonzalez more at third, where he rates the best defensively this season. However, Adrianza has hit righties pretty well this year (107 wRC+ compared to Gonzalez’s 83 wRC+), and although his defensive numbers at third haven’t been great so far in 2019 (SSS), his career numbers are better than Sano’s.
Of course, the Twins could also get Mitch Garver some playing time at first. The Twins have been getting Garver more starts at catcher of late, but playing him at first would be a nice way to utilize his potent bat. Garver has destroyed lefties (1.147 OPS, 189 wRC+), but like Adrianza and Sano, he has been much better than Cron against righties as well (.864 OPS, 119 wRC+). Garver has hardly played any first base this year, but he has played the position in the past.
Any or some combination of the previously mentioned players would offer an immediate upgrade over Cron. The Twins have an opportunity to not only improve offensively by getting Cron’s bat out of the lineup against righties, but also to improve defensively by getting Sano off of third more often. Cron could still play against lefties (and pinch hit) and the extra rest might be good for his thumb if it is still bothering him.
Benching Cron also gives the Twins a chance to get Garver’s bat into the lineup more often and to get Adrianza, who has played very well in limited opportunities, more time on the field. Finally, once Buxton comes back, playing Cron less will allow Minnesota to continue getting Gonzalez in the lineup.
So what do you think? Should the Twins continue to roll with Cron? If not, which combination of players do you prefer to play in Cron’s place?
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