Handing a Qualifying Offer to Michael Pineda

One hundred percent yes. This is almost a no-brainer to me given the reduced cost for his suspension at the beginning of the year and that we are pretty confident he wasn't cheating given the reduced penalty.

IMO he isn't worth a QO. Was the suspension a one time thing? Can the Twins rely on him?

This team needs to start putting some arms around Berrios that aren't stop gaps. If Pineda is the 5th spot in the rotation then a short term QO is fine. If the intention is to bank on a guy who's already a serious health risk to repeat this last season and be a top of the rotation starter then it's a hard pass. High caliber internal arms aren't exactly knocking at the door, there's Graterol and then a group that barely got a taste of AA or hasn't even reached that level yet. 

Because of the remaining suspension, it would be easier for Pineda to decline the QO and wait until June to sign.

 

Also, the Fangraphs dollar value is based on something like $8 mil per WAR, which isn't necessarily a great deal for a team with the Twins payroll. (Isn't necessarily bad either.)

I’m not positive on this, but I’m pretty sure the suspension doesn’t start until he’s on someone’s roster. In other words, if he signs in June, he still has to sit 35 games. In other words, a QO in this particular case would give the Twins an enormous amount of leverage. Edited October 16, 2019 by yarnivek1972

 

I’m not positive on this, but I’m pretty sure the suspension doesn’t start until he’s on someone’s roster. In other words, if he signs in June, he still has to sit 35 games. In other words, a QO in this particular case would give the Twins an enormous amount of leverage.

If this is true, and it would make sense if it is, this is a very good point.

So it's comparable to when the Twins signed him while he was unable to pitch because of his injury and surgery. The difference is now they would be signing him while he is unable to pitch because of his suspension. And they don't have to pay him during his suspension.

I think he's worth having for the 127 games for which he would be eligible, but it depends on who else we would sign and/or promote to be in the starting rotation.

I could see the QO as a first move toward signing him to a deal. Considering his situation he may take a two year deal? If so, perfect, then get him on the same conditioning plan that Sano was on. In fact make that plan a part of the deal. Get him in better shape and he won't need to cheat. If this huge guy dropped forty or fifty he could go on quite the run. Remember this is a bird in hand, we can only count on so many from the bush.

Can he be trusted? He was hit with the PED bit this season, but was he not caught having pine tar on his neck when he was a Yankee? My memory is bad but that is what I am coming up with. If he is that rulebook challenged, what is next when the team really needs him?

He’s an older player that got paid by the twins to rehab and then got busted for a banned substance.  His action clearly hurt the Twins playoff run. And he gets rewarded with $17 million?  I don’t care if he doesn’t get paid for 35 games this is a lousy message to players and a bad game plan for the Twins.

A player who has twice demonstrated  grave errors in judgement and left his teammates in the lurch is not a good risk.  Add a clause that he has to report to camp 20 pounds lighter or he gets paid less.

 

NO!! I want him back but offer a reasonable contract to him, but with his suspension a $17+ ‘QO is excessive. Plus I think he’d give the Twins a discount. 

 

I laid out in the article that he wouldn't actually be paid $17MM. It'd be just under $14MM, and that is what his market should be near.

 

He’s an older player that got paid by the twins to rehab and then got busted for a banned substance.  His action clearly hurt the Twins playoff run. And he gets rewarded with $17 million?  I don’t care if he doesn’t get paid for 35 games this is a lousy message to players and a bad game plan for the Twins.

Morality in sports doesn't really work like this. You pay for talent. Jorge Polanco is a young player that actually cheated using PEDs (not just a weight loss diuretic) and was handed a 5 year deal.

So here's my thought process on Pineda:

 

1. Was he getting any actual on-field benefit from whatever banned substances he was taking? If he was, you've got to assume some performance regression next year.

 

2. What's the temperature in the clubhouse towards him? Are players bitter towards him or are they forgiving? Next year, would he be a good or a bad clubhouse influence?

 

Assuming the answer to #1 is that he wasn't getting any on-field benefit from the substances and assuming the answer to #2 is that the player are forgiving an he's a good clubhouse influence, then I think he is worth the QO. He's had enough flashes of effectiveness in his career that I think there's a good chance everything comes together for him and he posts an ERA in the low-to-mid 3's next year.

 

If the answer to those two questions I posed goes the other way, I don't give him the QO.

Yes I hope they attempt to sign him - and I would give the QO if necessary. Playoffs this year prove what we all know. You cannot have enough quality pitching. Cannot. Love to see what the Nats did - after Harper. Pitching rules the day in October. 

 

Basically, assuming they don't acquire three starters in addition to Pineda..... They will need to use Dobnak and another guy for seven to eight starts each.... Do people want the next best guy to make that many starts? It also guarantees Dobnak needs to make at least eight.... They can't skip him.

The situation is fluid. I have complete confidence in our FO.

 

Can he be trusted? He was hit with the PED bit this season, but was he not caught having pine tar on his neck when he was a Yankee? My memory is bad but that is what I am coming up with. If he is that rulebook challenged, what is next when the team really needs him?

I think pine tar is a gateway drug.

This is a tough call. On the surface, I'd take that $13M risk and sign him as my #6/injury insurance guy. Then I'd pretend he doesn't exist as I build out the rotation with the idea that only one slot goes to an internal candidate such as Dobnak/Thorpe/Smeltzer. (I want 10 options for the rotation that don't make me vomit on my spreadsheet).

 

But, this guy's cheated before, right? SO, I want to get a sense that he feels at least somewhat contrite about how royally he screwed over his teammates and his organization. I want him to want to belong and to make amends. I want loyalty. I want him excited to take advantage of his suspension time and promise to be a hard worker and good influence on the other rehabbing players with him in Fort Meyers. I want him to embrace a regimen that gets him back to MLB in terrific physical shape so that he never, ever thinks about cheating his teammates and his organization again.