For The Love Of Joe

TwinsWonWithHunter · August 24, 2016

I know that Joe Mauer is a fan-favorite of many, and that his

9-season run from 2005-2013 easily qualifies him as the best

catcher in team history. At one point in his career, he seemed

destined for Cooperstown.

The fact is, however, that careers are a total body of work. At age

31, his decline was steep. From one season to the next, he morphed

from a .320 hitter to .270. And the .270-range is where he has

resided since 2014, at first base no less, with an average of

about 12 home runs and 65 RBI per season. That type of production (such as it is) is what we can expect during his two remaining seasons in a Twins uniform. Or when his contract mercifully expires at

the conclusion of 2018.

The best comparison I can come up with is Don Mattingly. His first 7 or 8 seasons, he absolutely raked. But injuries took their toll,

and from ages 30-34 his drop anticipated that of Mauer’s. And by

age 35 or so, he was out of baseball.

Don Mattingly and Joe Mauer are not going to the Hall-of-Fame

because

A - their run of greatness just was not long enough

B - the mediocre era of their careers started too early and lasted

too long

C - They had no defining October moments.

It is what it is.

The Wise One · August 24, 2016

In terms of many fans what Joe suffers from is 2 things.

1, Never had the team jump on his beck and he carried them through the playoffs

As Jimmy Jam penned "What have you done for me lately"

pierre75275 · August 24, 2016

Things that people say that make my head explode when talking about Joe Mauer:

He makes too much money, he isnt worth it, he should give it back to the Twins- bc billionaire baseball owners never have enough.

Let's move Joe Mauer to catcher.

Let's trade Joe Mauer to Boston or NY because that no trade clause is really a suggestion anyway.

Please note I made up my own reasons for why people say things about Joe Mauer.

WiesbadenDAN · August 24, 2016

"Mauer is just 15 intentional walks behind Killebrew’s 152. This statistic speaks to the respect that Mauer has around the league and with opposing managers."

Or maybe it is how little respect for who is or was batting after Joe?

diehardtwinsfan · August 24, 2016

If his career ended a couple years ago, I think he'd have been a lock like Puckett. Not quite sure now to be honest, though I'm not sure how a couple of bad seasons post concussion suddenly makes him not an HOF. I think if he can rebound a bit in his 30s and post a few .800ish OPS type seasons, that might change some perception as his counting stats will clear that 2000 hit mark. If he could make another run at a batting title into his 30s, that would probably help as well.

That said, Mauer would be served making an HOF case if he could switch to a defense first position, play said defense well, while continuing to hit they way he has hit this year... I'm guessing that won't happen for a number of reasons, most of which I'd add are quite valid (note I'm not saying he should become a SS).

That said, if I had a card, I'd vote him in based on his run as a catcher.

JaleelWhite FanClub · August 24, 2016

In addition, Mauer's HOF case is going to be hurt by his lack of postseason success.

By the end of 2018 he'll be 4+ years removed from being a full-time catcher, so the "bump" from playing that position might not bee dso fresh in the minds of voters.

I do think he has like a 40-50% chance of getting in. I think the last 2-3 classes have been so good (Maddux, Pedro, Randy Johnson, Griffey, Piazza) that we forget the likes of Andre Dawson, Ron Santo, Jim Rice, and Goose Gossage, players with some holes in their games/resumes, have gotten in recently.

Brock Beauchamp · August 24, 2016

Or maybe it is how little respect for who is or was batting after Joe?

He accumulated 79 of those IBBs from 2004-2010. The hitter slotted behind Joe in most of those games? Justin Morneau.

So... no.

Brock Beauchamp · August 24, 2016

I think if he can rebound a bit in his 30s and post a few .800ish OPS type seasons, that might change some perception as his counting stats will clear that 2000 hit mark.

If Joe's OPS continues to drift upward for a year or two and flirts with .800 for awhile, I think that helps his cause. At that point, it's painfully clear the concussion is what derailed his career (despite what many have argued over the past few years).

Just look at that OPS by year:

.939 (SSS)

.783

.936

.808

.864

1.031

.871

.729 (bizarre injury year)

.861

.880

concussion

.732

.718

.779

If Joe posts another .780-ish season, I don't see how anyone can argue the concussion is what did him in. It wasn't the shifts, it wasn't aging, it was the knock to his face. Sure, maybe those other things contributed a bit but shifts and aging don't account for 150 OPS points overnight. Hell, look at the Cubs, the most advanced team in the league. They (mostly) stopped shifting, which puts into doubt its overall efficacy.

mikelink45 · August 24, 2016

Twins HOF - or course. MLB, no - another very good catcher who because of injuries lost his chances. That happens, the HOF is an accumulating ranking - hitting certain numbers is a matter of longevity and talent, but not necessarily the best talent during the career span.

Had Joe retired when the concussion happened he would be in, like Kirby, but now he can join Torii in the Target field hall.

What Joe lacks compared to some of these greats is the passion. Kirby and Torii played the game with such enthusiasm that the bat was an addition and not the only reason they were beloved. Joe is so Minnesotan that we never see his emotions. We do not have the give me the bat and I will win this for the team feeling that was in the stadium when I watched the Puckett/Morris world series.

Joe goes into that hall of very good, but not really great! Check out this list of some of the best catchers not in the hall - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/162558-the-top-10-eligible-catchers-not-in-the-hall-of-fame - there is even a Minnesotan on it. But the top 8 rank ahead of Joe - Here is number 8 - Walker Cooper – 18 years Walker’s major league career began in 1940 and ended in 1957. Cooper batted over .300 eight times. He was named to eight consecutive all-star teams, and played in three World Series with the St. Louis Cardinals. His career statistics re: BA=.285, HR=173, RBI=812, OBP=.332, SLUG%=.464, OPS=116,FLD%=.977,CS%=.35.

Platoon · August 24, 2016

Another possible reason for much of the 'dislike' of Mauer is the fact that for the last several years he has played on a team without a true 3 hitter, or for that matter a 4 hitter. His style of hitting does not fit either slot well, yet he was constantly placed in the 3 spot. One could argue because there was no other alternative, or that the manager in question was not very adept at lineup construction. On various days, in various seasons either argument could be valid. Last but not least, the lack of any protection certainly makes a difference. And to concur with another poster, why is his contract a matter of value analysis. Second,it isn't my/our money, and first he was worth it when it was signed, for various well belabored reasons. It's over.

Thrylos · August 24, 2016

All of those rankings are (and correctly) judged against the one that is not mentioned:

Total Compensation: #1 - in Twins history

and it does not meet expectations.

This is exactly what the problem with Mauer is.

It is not that he is not a good player that has been a great player. It is that he is not the best player ever the Twins have had, even though he is compensated like he is.

Squirrel · August 24, 2016

Another possible reason for much of the 'dislike' of Mauer is the fact that for the last several years he has played on a team without a true 3 hitter, or for that matter a 4 hitter. His style of hitting does not fit either slot well, yet he was constantly placed in the 3 spot. One could argue because there was no other alternative, or that the manager in question was not very adept at lineup construction. On various days, in various seasons either argument could be valid. Last but not least, the lack of any protection certainly makes a difference. And to concur with another poster, why is his contract a matter of value analysis. Second,it isn't my/our money, and first he was worth it when it was signed, for various well belabored reasons. It's over.

If Mauer is disliked by fans for batting 3rd, then their dislike is misplaced.

Platoon · August 24, 2016

If Mauer is disliked by fans for batting 3rd, then their dislike is misplaced.

I think he is, and I assume you mean that the dislike should be at either the manager or the FO, as I believe.

USAFChief · August 24, 2016

If Mauer is disliked by fans for batting 3rd, then their dislike is misplaced.

Or, perhaps some of that dislike stems from a perception that he refuses to modify plate appearances to fit the role, or fit specific situations, as some of us believe is required to maximize the team's chances of winning.

Doomtints · August 24, 2016

Generally, I see a lot of people bemoan that others dislike Mauer. But I don't see people ragging on him. Maybe some of you frequent other, darker parts of the internet. Maybe some of you remember criticisms of him from long ago.

As the OP said, Mauer will be in the Twins HOF. None of us know if he will be in Cooperstown. One would think that voters will still be trying to figure out what to do with steroids-era players by the time the conversation comes up, which may help his chances as being the Golden Boy. But this is too far away to really be guessing at in any serious way.

Squirrel · August 24, 2016

Or, perhaps some of that dislike stems from a perception that he refuses to modify plate appearances to fit the role, or fit specific situations, as some of us believe is required to maximize the team's chances of winning.

Perhaps he has tried, but that is just not the type of hitter he is or can be. Perception is one thing, actuality is another. Sometimes they are the same, but unless you know for sure, and I suspect you don't, then I think your dislike is misplaced. If your perception is true, then it's still up to the manager to bat him in the appropriate place, and that's not what happens. If he won't or can't adjust, then the manager is wrong to continue batting him there. Period. And I think your dislike of Joe for that is still misplaced, with all due respect.

Seth Stohs · August 24, 2016

In terms of many fans what Joe suffers from is 2 things.
1, Never had the team jump on his beck and he carried them through the playoffs
As Jimmy Jam penned "What have you done for me lately"

I can't help but wonder how things for the Twins and Mauer's career perception would be different if his RBI double in the playoffs had been accurately called fair.

dbminn · August 24, 2016

One method used to determine if a player is HOF-worthy is the "JAWS" system created by Jay Jaffe. It looks at both career WAR and 7-Year Peak WAR. There are 14 catchers in the HOF. Mauer is ranked 11th all-time in career bWAR and 5th all-time in 7-year peak bWAR. (JAWS uses Baseball Reference, not Fangraphs)

By these numbers, Mauer should get into the Hall. Arguments against him include lack of championships, down years late in the career, and not playing in New York, LA or Boston. I'd vote for him.

Doomtints · August 24, 2016

One method used to determine if a player is HOF-worthy is the "JAWS" system created by Jay Jaffe. It looks at both career WAR and 7-Year Peak WAR. There are 14 catchers in the HOF. Mauer is ranked 11th all-time in career bWAR and 5th all-time in 7-year peak bWAR. (JAWS uses Baseball Reference, not Fangraphs)

By these numbers, Mauer should get into the Hall. Arguments against him include lack of championships, down years late in the career, and not playing in New York, LA or Boston. I'd vote for him.

Unfortunately JAWS is adjusted by position and you are looking at catcher numbers. It's going to be a hard sell to get him in based on that.

wsnydes · August 24, 2016

I think he is, and I assume you mean that the dislike should be at either the manager or the FO, as I believe.

During the Morneau years, I had no problem with him in the 3 hole. There's a reason Morneau put up monster RBI tallies in those years - the guy hitting in front of him was on base 40%-45% of the time. How the rest of the roster is constructed is out of his control and certainly not his issue. With no true #2, #3, or #4 hitting in the lineup for the last handful of years, there's only so much that could be done. That lies on the FO and to perhaps a far lesser degree on the manager.

Even today, I realize that he isn't a 3 hitter but I don't know where to put him and I certainly don't know who to put in the 3 hole in his stead. Again, that's not on Joe.

I've always enjoyed watching him hit. I don't stop whatever I'm doing during his plate appearances like I used to, but I still enjoy watching the swing. I think he's a borderline HOF player who will be on the ballot all 10 years.

Willihammer · August 24, 2016

Mauer's JAWS score is almost exactly average for a HoF catcher. But at 897 games played at C, he would be at the lower extreme amongst HoF C's, which IMO calls into question whether his career should be weighed against C, or maybe 60/40 against HoF Cs and HoF 1Bs where his JAWS score would be quite a bit below the 1B average.

Doomtints · August 24, 2016

Mauer's JAWS score is almost exactly average for a HoF catcher. But at 897 games played at C, he would be at the lower extreme amongst HoF C's, which IMO calls into question whether his career should be weighed against C, or maybe 60/40 against HoF Cs and HoF 1Bs where his JAWS score would be quite a bit below the 1B average.

By the time Joe retires, he will have played more games at 1B and those catcher comparisons for JAWS will disappear from Baseball Reference.

JAWS has some multi-positional comparisons available, but I'm guessing the website will display 1B numbers. We'll find out.

birddog · August 24, 2016

If Joe were still a catcher, he'd be a certain HOF, but that's the issue with him. He was a regular All-Star while catching but has always been an after thought at 1B since moving there. If he were still a catcher--and I'm not calling for it--he would more than likely still be an All-Star with his numbers. They aren't bad for a catcher, but they aren't nearly enough for a 1B. And for his salary we need many more HRs, RBIs, and clutch hits from him.

You have to like and respect Joe Mauer as a person, but even as a concussed 1B there isn't enough to justify full time duty especially as we find out who fits in our future.

dbminn · August 24, 2016

Unfortunately JAWS is adjusted by position and you are looking at catcher numbers. It's going to be a hard sell to get him in based on that.

His peak seven years were as a catcher, as is 90+% of his total WAR. Is that enough to define him as a catcher? I think so but others may agree with you.

Beemo · August 24, 2016

I can't help but wonder how things for the Twins and Mauer's career perception would be different if his RBI double in the playoffs had been accurately called fair.

I doubt it would matter much. Mauer was leading off that inning, so there was no RBI. He got on an and eventually he made it to third base and they still couldn't score him. Since we're talking about the Twins against the Yankees in the post-season, I'd assume that even if Mauer had hit a homerun there, the Twins still lose the game.

TheBoofIsLoose · August 24, 2016

All of those rankings are (and correctly) judged against the one that is not mentioned:

Total Compensation: #1 - in Twins history

and it does not meet expectations.

This is exactly what the problem with Mauer is.

It is not that he is not a good player that has been a great player. It is that he is not the best player ever the Twins have had, even though he is compensated like he is.

Should they retroactively award contracts to those more deserving players? Mauer was on an absolute tear the years before his contract extension and in all honesty the Twins got the hometown discount to keep him. The Twins had to shell out to keep an MVP level, beloved player. It hasn't worked out perfectly, but we still have a first baseman playing excellent defense, with a high OBP and a solid batting average.

Loosey · August 24, 2016

All of those rankings are (and correctly) judged against the one that is not mentioned:

Total Compensation: #1 - in Twins history

and it does not meet expectations.

This is exactly what the problem with Mauer is.

It is not that he is not a good player that has been a great player. It is that he is not the best player ever the Twins have had, even though he is compensated like he is.

First of all if Carew or Killebrew played in this era they would have been compensated equally or greater than Joe.

Second, piggy backing off of the first part of my post, the game has changed drastically from an economic point of view. Yes, Joe makes a lot of money, and it would have been nice if he played like 2009 for every year since, but he didn't.

If Twins front office decided to let Mauer walk in 2010 because his asking price was too high in the same year as they were moving into Target Field you would have been the loudest one on these message boards and on your blog calling for every member of the management to be fired and complaining about how cheap the Twins are.

Seth Stohs · August 24, 2016

What Joe lacks compared to some of these greats is the passion. Kirby and Torii played the game with such enthusiasm that the bat was an addition and not the only reason they were beloved. Joe is so Minnesotan that we never see his emotions. We do not have the give me the bat and I will win this for the team feeling that was in the stadium when I watched the Puckett/Morris world series.

This is where I'll disagree a little. Just because we never see his emotions does not mean he doesn't have tremendous drive and passion. It doesn't mean he doesn't care. For some, being able to control one's emotions helps make them great. I'd have to think that's part of why his career numbers in "clutch" situations, late in close games, runners in scoring position, are better than his overall numbers. Because he can stay calm when others might try to do too much.

I just don't think the fact that he doesn't outwardly show fire means that he doesn't have tremendous passion for the game.

DJL44 · August 24, 2016

Joe Mauer is Ted Simmons but with a better glove. Ted Simmons should be in the Hall.

wsnydes · August 24, 2016

And for his salary we need many more HRs, RBIs, and clutch hits from him.

Were you calling for a pay increase when he was putting up MVP numbers making $10.5M a year? This notion is laughable. Salary means nothing on the field.

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