FEINSAND: Twins to Sign Josh Donaldson

Poor Kuechel. Do the Twins have the best home run hitting right handed lineup in the history of baseball?

To be fair, a year from now, some in that list may make us go "meh" again.

True. Let's just hope it's not most of them, and it's unlikely that the group that went from "meh" to "cool" last year will all return to "meh". Garver, Kepler, Arraez, Buxton, Sano, Polanco, even Cruz exceeded almost everyone's expectations. How many of those players are going to suffer serious regression?

I'm really excited about this signing. It didn't look like we really needed to upgrade our hitting at any position. However, looking at the numbers, we've significantly upgraded 1B and 3B as a result of this move.  Believe it or not, over 162 games, 1B was our worst OPS by position, and 3B was our 4th worst:

1B .309 OBP .451 SLG .744 OPS 27HR

3B .326 OBP .484 SLG .810 OPS 40 HR

Last year, Donaldson and Sano did this:

Rain   155 games .379 OBP .521 SLG .900 OPS 37 HR

Sano  105 games .346 OBP .576 SLG .923 OPS 34 HR

I expect we'll get about 140-145 games from each of them at these positions, with each of them getting a few games at DH as well. So we will likely see OBP, SLG and OPS go up significantly at both positions. We'll probably see similar HR numbers at 3B, but add about 20 HR at 1B. I think this is a conservative estimate, as Donaldson got off to a slow start last year, hitting 30 of his 37 HR from June forward. And Sano also started slow, worked on mechanics, and then was brilliant the rest of the year.

Add to this, a full season of Arraez instead of Schoop which will likely improve OBP at 2B (with less HRs). Despite losing about 15-20 HR, I view as an improvement at 2B. And if Buxton can stay healthy (fingers crossed), we should improve our overall numbers at CF and RF.

With a full spring training to work on defense, I'd expect Sano to be at least as good at 1B as we had last year, and 3B defense will be significantly better. I also believe that with another year of experience at their positions, Polanco and Arraez will improve at SS and 2B. And, of course our outfield defense should improve significantly if Buxton stays healthy (fingers crossed).

Kudos to the FO for getting a high end free agent. That was the only way we were going to significantly improve on offense, while also improving on defense.

Here's the lineup I'd like to see:

Polanco

Donaldson

Cruz

Kepler

Sano

Rosario

Garver

Arraez

Buxton

I’m concerned about health, of course, but not a less lively ball because everyone has to play with it and Twins pitchers could really benefit from a less lively ball with Buxton manning center.

Yeah, and I'd be more concerned about health if they didn't have both quality depth on the 26-man and a handful of prospects who have at least a remote chance of emerging in similar fashion to how Arraez surprised us.

Would like to have seen them spend some of that money on Wheeler, RYU or possibly Bumgarner but i can't argue that this was a bad signing because it definitely fills a need.

I am a bit worried. 23 million a season for a 33 year old is a lot of money and i fear breakdowns in year 3 or 4, but we shall find out. Hopefully this will do two fold.

1. Break the impression amongst the league's premier players that the Twins are not players in the free agent market place and

2. Move Sano off the hot corner where he has clearly been struggling defensively the last 3 or 4 seasons. Maybe a year or two at first and then when Kirilloff or Kepler is ready he can move full time to DH.

To be fair, if properly motivated, there is no limit or boundaries to what you can spin.

F YEA!  That is all.

Don't get me wrong -- I'm optimistic too.

 

But it doesn't take much to make regression cases for most of those guys. Health and a less lively baseball could have impacts on most.

Don't get me wrong ... That's a very fair point. The optimist in me wants to hope that Buxton could become the Superstar he was projected to be. I want to believe Kepler or Sano could go the way of Christian Yehlich instead of the other way. Maybe Dubnak could shock us all and be our guy that came out of nowhere or Graterol steps up big. Hey, I know it's wishful thinking but it's fun to think it could happen. We had a lot of unknowns turn out pretty well last year. How about a continuation of that trend?

As long as I am wishing big, how about Donaldson does an Adrian Beltre impersonation the next 4 years and delivers 20 WAR for his age 34-37 seasons.   

Liking this a lot. But...

I still hope for a better glove and arm out of our SS.

Huge move for this franchise. On paper, it makes the Twins with the best lineup in MLB (based on 2019 stats anyway). I think this makes Minnesota the overwhelming favorite in the AL Central, but I don't know if it puts them on a par with NYY. 

 

Signing Donaldson has some risks and concerns. He has been known to be not that well-liked in the clubhouse. He has an injury history and is 34 years old. Signing Donaldson moves Sanó to the relatively unfamiliar position of first base. None of these supposed drawbacks is significant compared to what he will do for an already power-packed lineup. 

 

As far as making a move to get pitching, I guess I'm OK with waiting until the trade deadline. Most starting pitchers are unpredictable and the organization will know better what they need by then, compared to mid-January. The team should be able to get by with who they have until then. 

Need a front of the line starter. Then i think we are on par with NY. Just my opinion. May still happen via a trade.

Didn’t Joe Mauer make $23 million a year in his big contract? I don’t think I’d take JD over prime Joe but I’d take him over late career Joe. Hopefully the end of JDs contract turns out different that JMs.

The team around JD is MUCH better than what Joe had in his late career. Protection in the lineup alone should make Donaldson's value last longer. What are teams gonna do? Walk him to get to the Cruz Missile? Not a chance.

Idk Detroit/ KC/ Chi have some major weaknesses to their pitching staffs.  White Sox rotation additions were both soft tossing lefties that are going to have to face the Twins that can now trot out the lineup of death vs left handers. 

 

Donaldson remembered his times vs the AL Central fondly because there is always pitching to feast on.  The Twins certainly stocked the buffet but they were hardly the only caterer. 

 

Cleveland has a good rotation of young guys, Detroit has Boyd,,, KC has prospects, White Sox have Giolito and some good prospects.  Josh will get to face the likes of Gio Gonzalez/ Dallas Keuchel/ Daniel Norris/ Mike Montgomery from the left side and a good percentage of inexperienced/ un- established/ mediocre from the right.  AKA he is still going to get plenty of AL Central meat to eat in hitter friendly ball parks.  

 

It obviously won't be the onslaugh he put on the Twins in a smaller sample size, but he will still get to face a lot of AL Central pitching.

The tweet is incredibly misleading. He'll play 81 games at home this year, and a vast majority of those ABs won't come against AAAA guys like the Twins were running out the years those Toronto teams would tee off at Target Field.

I agree the Central is easily the worst division in baseball, and he'll see some subpar pitching, but it won't account for anywhere close to the percentage of poor pitching used to generate the stat lines in that tweet. 

Signing Donaldson has some risks and concerns. He has been known to be not that well-liked in the clubhouse. . 

 

 

I have to be honest, I've never heard this about Donaldson. Yeah he can take the whole "competitive attitude" thing to the extreme, but I've never heard teammates complain. Not saying you're wrong it's just not something I've ever come across.

Hard to find anything to dislike about this move. Donaldson is legit a frontline FA, and somehow 21M AAV seems like a discount. He just makes this team better, and significantly. Two thumbs way up.

Two things moving forward though:

This disproves any notion there's any reason outside of money that front end FAs won't come to Minnesota.

Second, I believe this roster is now one front line SP away from being, at least on paper, a legitimate World Series contender.

I'll eat the crow, and say this is a big move from the FO. I've been pretty skeptical of them up to this point, and this moves the needle quite a bit in the right direction for me. Whether it works out or not.

No. It doens't. At all. 

 

Valid. You're right.

I was more speaking in generalities. Any individual player can make decisions for whatever reason they want, sure.

But I've seen multiples mentions of "The Twins will never sign a big name FA because it's cold." Or there isn't a high Asian population in the region. Or the taxes are high.

Make a respectable offer, and they will at least consider it. This signing doesn't prove they were willing to pay Bumgarner, Wheeler, Keuchel, or Ryu the same rates they accepted. It doesn't disprove it, either. We'll never know.

I pretty much agree with your take here.  I honestly think the FO is going to go with the young guys to start the year.  Through April they likely only need to cover one spot in the rotation so they just need to cover two spots for one month tops which equals 5 or six starts from the young guy(s) who fill Pineda's spot.  Once Hill is back later in the year then all five spots are filled by vets until the end of the year. 

 

I think the FO wants to know what they have in a Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer or Graterol so they can make a decision on if they are a part of the teams future or not because they have Balazovic, Cole, Colina and maybe Vallimont, Enlow and Canterino who they might want to add if they pitch well this year. They can't keep all these number 4\5 starters on the 40 man so will have to make some decisions fairly soon.

 

In the playoffs we didn't have Pineda and the issue wasn't starting pitching as much as the bullpen and the bats going quiet.  I know depending on Hill is not a great strategy but he could end up being a difference maker as well.  If Thorpe or one of the young guys steps up then that is timely or gravy as well.

 

That being said if that is the plan they don't have much veteran depth if one them gets hurt and can't pitch the rest of the year. They would be vulnerable to start the year with the young pitching but I still think that is a risk they will be willing to take.

 

If they can find a trade partner for a top-line starter I am all for it.  I just don't see them doing it until they feel forced by injury or ineffectiveness of the guys they have. 

Ding, ding, ding -  we have a winner.  They have a great deal of really solid arms right on the doorstep.  They are in 2-3 waves.  They simply must make a decision upon the first, and perhaps the second wave soon.  There are too many to protect in the future.  Thus, Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer, maybe Romero, and Graterol need to be tested this next 1-2 years.  Thereafter, Colina, Balazovic, Duran will need to be looked at.  Finally, Sands, Enlow, and Canterino will follow.  We could have a GREAT young staff if one pitcher from each wave becomes a part of the MLB core (while Berrios continues to become a 1 or 2)..  This is what they are likely up to early this year.  They will get help (if necessary) at trade deadline - which may include someone from Wave 2 if they are forcing their way up for a look (and I think one might).  Its all about managing assets....

Now trade Arraez and Kiriloff for 2 years of Lindor to play SS, shifting Polanco to 2B. 

Just kidding, but seriously though.