Bonded By Tommy John: Chris Paddack and Matt Canterino Set to Bolster 2024 Twins

I hope they both have a big impact in 24&25. Both are young and controllable so it would be great if they are in the rotation or BP for years. Great mound presence for each and a full tool box. Spring can’t get here soon enough!!

Could Canterino be our Varland of 2024?  Give us some juice and nasty out of the pen? 

14 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I hope they both have a big impact in 24&25. Both are young and controllable so it would be great if they are in the rotation or BP for years. Great mound presence for each and a full tool box. Spring can’t get here soon enough!!

Paddack is 28 and a FA after the 25 season. So something likely will be or should be done with him before next off season (trade him or extended him)

Canterino will hopefully be a super stud RP pitcher for the foreseeable future. Can't imagine a 26 year old guy that hasn't pitched more than 37 innings in a year since 2019 would spend the next few years building up to be a starter again. (IMO that ship has sailed)

Right now I would argue the 3 pitchers in the system with the highest ceiling outside of Lopez - are Paddack, Canterino and Priellip.   Now we have had some arms really develop but these 3 are all high end arms with immense injury history.   It would be great if all 3 were healthy this year and moving forward, but odds are at least 1 is going to bust or get injured again.  Now we get to add Staumont to the group.     

The way Paddack pitched in the playoffs gave a lot of confidence to what he can potentially do next season.  Generally the command is the last thing to come, but he had not only more velocity but the command was there in spades.  Obviously it was a small sample size,  but he handled the Astros line up 2nd to only Lopez in my opinion.  

We definitely seem to be cornering the injured pitchers market and willing to see their performance once they heal.  Similar to Paddack I see this year as a transition year for Staumont.  Canterino is really on his last year to show something in positive in my opinion.  Priellip I hope is finally healthy.    

I have always LOVED Canterino's stuff.  He throws hard, but that curveball is knee-buckling.  I had settled on him being that 8th inning guy that allows Varland to remain a SP or at least be piggybacked with Paddack.  I hadn't realized that doctors had told him 125 innings was possible for 2024.  I really thought the bullpen was his only option.  Interesting.  I STILL see him as an 8th inning guy and when paired with Duran would be a lock down back end of the pen.  I just wonder WHEN the Twins would call him up?  Even if he shines in spring training, I've got to believe they want to see him dominate in St. Paul for 2--months.  Maybe June 1st-10th?  

I had no idea Paddack hit 99 mph last year !!  I knew he had a good fastball from when he came up with the Padres but 99?!?  That's exciting.  Paddack and Canterino are two pitchers who could be true difference makers for the Twins in 2024.

In all honesty it is very tough for me to jump on and board this train. Or rather, train wrecks.

Canterino, 85 IP in five years.

Paddock, penciled in by most as our #4 SP at this point. 27.1 IP in two seasons as a Twin. One #3 type season in the ML's on his resume. 

Now we get to add Staumont to our list of injury plagued hopefuls to the list. Coming off of TOS of all things. If you can't stay on the mound it doesn't matter how good you are.

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I hope they both have a big impact in 24&25. Both are young and controllable so it would be great if they are in the rotation or BP for years. Great mound presence for each and a full tool box. Spring can’t get here soon enough!!

Wait a sec, ski season hasn't even started yet

The key for Paddack is going to be whether or not he finds consistency with a 3rd pitch, whether it's the curve or the slider. the fastball should be fine now that he's had the surgery, should be pain-free, and ticks the velocity back up a touch. The change-up is a very effective pitch for him as well. But he's never really had sustained success with a 3rd pitch. the curve looked good in 2023, but he only threw 12 of them in MLB, so who knows. It'll be interesting to see how the twins manage his innings, but he should be able to be a good 5th starter for them with upside for more.

Canterino has all the stuff in the world, but his health just hasn't been there. Sure feels like the staff at Rice did him dirty and should have done more to protect and develop his arm health. It's hard to expect much out of him since he's been injured so much, but he's been incredibly hard to hit when he has been able to throw in pro ball. I think I would look at him being a 2-3 inning kind of pitcher this year (whether it's opening a game or relieving) as he builds up stamina and adjusts to pitching again. I suspect he'll spend a little extra time to start the season in FL so that they can work with him where they have expanded facilities and the weather's warmer. but I could see him bouncing up to Saint Paul quickly, in part to see how he does against more advanced hitters but also so the MLB staff can keep an eye on his arm.

Paddack will likely be fine, it's just a question of what his ceiling is.  Some prognosticators think he's a bullpen guy who will never have the additional pitch to be an effective starter, others have higher expectations. He showed he was healthy again at the end of 2023 and look good enough to inspire some positivity. Canterino has had so much missed time that it's harder to project him for anything. We don't really know how well he's responded to the TJ until he actually gets back on the mound again, but his stuff has always been impressive. I'd like for him to go to the bullpen to try and get him through a full season healthy...and then try and Johan him back into the rotation in 2025, but I'll take any path that keeps him pitching.

Chisel them into the rotation in stone.  No need for external help.  That would cost money.

What could go wrong?

I know this post is about Canterino and Paddack, but if the team can't get 160+ innings each from Lopez, Ryan and Ober, it won't matter who fills the #4 & #5 spots in the rotation. 

13 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

I know this post is about Canterino and Paddack, but if the team can't get 160+ innings each from Lopez, Ryan and Ober, it won't matter who fills the #4 & #5 spots in the rotation. 

I disagree,   If the Lopez is a true fire ace,  you need 2 of the 3 of Ryan Ober and Paddack to be 130+ inning  starters.   If all 3 are healthy and solid then you are in a really strong position.  

You have Varland, likely another traded for pitcher, Festa, SWR, Canterino as potential other options.  The depth the Twins have had on the pitching staff is becoming stronger each year.    That is potential 5 different options to fill in the back end of your rotation.  If not, Varland and Canterino can potentially be bullpen options.  

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I disagree,   If the Lopez is a true fire ace,  you need 2 of the 3 of Ryan Ober and Paddack to be 130+ inning  starters.   If all 3 are healthy and solid then you are in a really strong position.  

You have Varland, likely another traded for pitcher, Festa, SWR, Canterino as potential other options.  The depth the Twins have had on the pitching staff is becoming stronger each year.    That is potential 5 different options to fill in the back end of your rotation.  If not, Varland and Canterino can potentially be bullpen options.  

130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is not a successful season, GOOD play-off teams generally have 3 or 4 guys that give them at least 145 innings, covering extra innings with sub-par pitching does not work.

6 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is not a successful season, GOOD play-off teams generally have 3 or 4 guys that give them at least 145 innings, covering extra innings with sub-par pitching does not work.

You forgot the +  LOL.   How many pitchers do you think pitched more than 130 innings last year?   Are you surprised to know it was only 86.    That is 2 1/2 pitchers per a staff.   Who do we have that could potentially do that next year Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober Varland plus any other pitcher signed or traded for.     

The Twins had 4 of the 84 last year.   With 2 of them being Ryan and Ober LOL.   I would consider last year a pretty successful season with those 2 just giving us a little over 130 innings.   I think Ryan has the ability to get more in the 150 to 170 range, but I think 130 is about what to expect from Ober and anything more is gravy.  

I think statistically Gray had an otherworldly start to the year.  If you remove his first 2 months,  I think as a whole,  this pitching staff will perform better than last year,  which is a very high hurdle.   I think Lopez is rounding into a true ace.   Ober has always been above average when available,  and a healthy Ryan is a solid low #2 to high #3.   Paddack is the potential difference maker.  Another high end #2  really rounds out the rotation.   You can have a rotation of #5 pitchers and still have an excellent staff.   I am still waiting to see if they make another move either from signing or trading for another starter.  

Paddock will join the rotation straight from ST as the 4/5 guy. I think Canterino starts the year at AAA in the same 2-3 innings per outing format he was previously in with an eye toward a late May early June call up as a RP. This will help limit the innings to 75-100 for the year (Pagan had the most innings for the bullpen last year at 69). This was a similar thought to Duran starting in the bullpen in 2022 as a multi-inning pitcher with an eye on starting in 2023. Duran was just dominant in 2022 as a RP. 

I think Canterino will come to ST in 2025 with an eye on starting having had success in the bullpen in 2024. :)

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

You forgot the +  LOL.   How many pitchers do you think pitched more than 130 innings last year?   Are you surprised to know it was only 86.   

Texas 5, Twins 4, Blue Jays 4, Houston 4, Balt 3, Arizona 3, Miami 3, Philadelphia 3, Atlanta 3, Milwaukee 2, Tampa and Dodgers 1.

With a few teams having another starter real close.  Maybe comparing teams that didn't make the playoffs isn't the best comparison to make?

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

You forgot the +  LOL.   How many pitchers do you think pitched more than 130 innings last year?   Are you surprised to know it was only 86.    That is 2 1/2 pitchers per a staff.   Who do we have that could potentially do that next year Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober Varland plus any other pitcher signed or traded for.     

The Twins had 4 of the 84 last year.   With 2 of them being Ryan and Ober LOL.   I would consider last year a pretty successful season with those 2 just giving us a little over 130 innings.   I think Ryan has the ability to get more in the 150 to 170 range, but I think 130 is about what to expect from Ober and anything more is gravy.  

I think statistically Gray had an otherworldly start to the year.  If you remove his first 2 months,  I think as a whole,  this pitching staff will perform better than last year,  which is a very high hurdle.   I think Lopez is rounding into a true ace.   Ober has always been above average when available,  and a healthy Ryan is a solid low #2 to high #3.   Paddack is the potential difference maker.  Another high end #2  really rounds out the rotation.   You can have a rotation of #5 pitchers and still have an excellent staff.   I am still waiting to see if they make another move either from signing or trading for another starter.  

Dropping my 145 innings to 144, there were 70 MLB pitchers that hit that mark, 4 from the Twins. Including totals from payers that were traded in-season, 38 of 70 (54.3%) pitched for play-off teams. Dropping it to 130 innings pitched, 41 of 86 (47.7%) pitched for play-off teams. And if you include the last 4 teams eliminated from the play-offs, 47 of 70 (67.1%) pitched 140 innings, and 56 of 86 (65.1%) pitched 130 innings. 15 innings is 3 starts, and I would rather have Ryan or Ober make those 3 starts instead of a Dallas Keuchel-type.

Starting pitching wins games, and quality starting pitching gets you into the play-offs. 

So, I disagree that 130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is considered a success (the + leaves too much open) and stick by my 160 innings, too many innings to replace otherwise.

20 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Texas 5, Twins 4, Blue Jays 4, Houston 4, Balt 3, Arizona 3, Miami 3, Philadelphia 3, Atlanta 3, Milwaukee 2, Tampa and Dodgers 1.

With a few teams having another starter real close.  Maybe comparing teams that didn't make the playoffs isn't the best comparison to make?

Texas had 7 if you include Scherzer and Montgomery, Houston had 5 if you include Verlander, Baltimore had 4 if you include Flaherty and Dodgers have 2 if include Lynn. Yes these were in-season pick ups, but they took the ball every 5th day and pitched in the play-offs.

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Texas 5, Twins 4, Blue Jays 4, Houston 4, Balt 3, Arizona 3, Miami 3, Philadelphia 3, Atlanta 3, Milwaukee 2, Tampa and Dodgers 1.

With a few teams having another starter real close.  Maybe comparing teams that didn't make the playoffs isn't the best comparison to make?

Mn fireman "130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is not a successful season"

Stating Ober and Ryan don't count as options getting over 130 is rather concerning which started this entire post.   If those 2 achieve it with Lopez that is better or equivalent to 26 other teams without giving any possibilities at the #4 or #5 pitcher.  You need solid pitchers like Ryan and Ober remaining healthy to have a successful staff and give you a decent shot of getting to the playoffs and possibly succeeding in the playoffs.   Thinking that you will have a top 1 to 2 staff is rather pie in the sky for thinking that is the only level of being successful.     

50 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Texas had 7 if you include Scherzer and Montgomery, Houston had 5 if you include Verlander, Baltimore had 4 if you include Flaherty and Dodgers have 2 if include Lynn. Yes these were in-season pick ups, but they took the ball every 5th day and pitched in the play-offs.

they didn't pitch that many innings for their team though.  Isn't that the very definition you just stated was not successful of 130+ innings from Ober and Ryan.  Seem to be moving the goalposts.    

19 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

they didn't pitch that many innings for their team though.  Isn't that the very definition you just stated was not successful of 130+ innings from Ober and Ryan.  Seem to be moving the goalposts.    

So don't count them!! You also then need to remove them from counting numbers because they changed teams, so the percentages stay roughly the same. I included them because their innings totaled over 130 & 145.

130 innings at 5 innings a start is 26 starts, at 6 innings a start it's 22 starts. 162 games in a season divided by 5 spots is 32/33 starts per spot. If Ryan and Ober each get 130 innings, who's covering those missing 12 - 20 starts? If you can get Scherzer, Verlander or Montgomery to cover them great!! Otherwise its going to be lesser options than Ryan or Ober. We seem to be forgetting that Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dallas Keuchel among others have started significant games over the last several years to cover missing starts by injured pitchers.

27 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

So don't count them!! You also then need to remove them from counting numbers because they changed teams, so the percentages stay roughly the same. I included them because their innings totaled over 130 & 145.

130 innings at 5 innings a start is 26 starts, at 6 innings a start it's 22 starts. 162 games in a season divided by 5 spots is 32/33 starts per spot. If Ryan and Ober each get 130 innings, who's covering those missing 12 - 20 starts? If you can get Scherzer, Verlander or Montgomery to cover them great!! Otherwise its going to be lesser options than Ryan or Ober. We seem to be forgetting that Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dallas Keuchel among others have started significant games over the last several years to cover missing starts by injured pitchers.

Ummmmm . . .  the Twins effectively had 6 starters for last year,  I think they will have a similar set up for this year.   It assumes someone will have an injury or worse performance.   You are setting incredibly high standards of success that is no longer as relevant to the current way baseball is being played.  The Twins were 3rd in average number of innings pitched by their starters.  As to the Rangers, they were a hodge podge of quality starters as well as Arizona.   Neither had what could effectively be billed as an ace that was pitching as an ace in the playoffs.   The Rangers and Arizona had 2 of the 3 worst pitching staffs going into the playoffs.  

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10091773-ranking-the-pitching-staff-of-every-2023-mlb-playoff-team

Ultimately you need enough innings pitched by your starters than don't overwhelm your bullpen.  The Twins were effective with it last year and seem to be on similar path for next year.  Getting upset by an unfinished product does not seem very pragmatic for the current situation.   We needed more Bundy's Archer's Shoemakers due to complete absence of a pitching staff and/or a decent pipeline in the minors.   The overall pitching quality and depth is night and day throughout the entire system than 2017.   The front office is not perfect and deserves some criticism, however considering what they were handed and the overall pitching and hitters in the organization we seem in a very good position to have continued success.   To be bemoan the quality of a Ryan and Ober is rather concerning in my opinion.  

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Paddack is 28 and a FA after the 25 season. So something likely will be or should be done with him before next off season (trade him or extended him)

Canterino will hopefully be a super stud RP pitcher for the foreseeable future. Can't imagine a 26 year old guy that hasn't pitched more than 37 innings in a year since 2019 would spend the next few years building up to be a starter again. (IMO that ship has sailed)

A lot depends on how 24 goes. If their arms stay strong and they are getting guys out, both will get starter innings. 125-200 per season until they are declining in their mid 30s. Either way, they have what they need to get guys out. If Paddack has a solid season, I bet they extend him for another 2-4 years. 

44 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

46 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

 To be bemoan the quality of a Ryan and Ober is rather concerning in my opinion.  

So, out of all the back and forth all day you think I am bemoaning the quality of Ryan and Ober? Far from it. I am saying if all the team gets out of them is 130 innings each then the season is not going to be successful. That is only 22 - 25 starts each, that leaves a lot of starts and a lot of innings to be covered by inexperienced or cast-off arms. 

Disagree with me if you like, but I would rather see 160 or more innings out of each of those 2 this season, that equates to good health, which should equate to team wins.

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

 

130+ innings I guess fits in both categories LOL.   Even still if we get 260 sub 4 ERA from the combination of Ryan and Ober I think the Twins would be pretty happy with that.    

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

A lot depends on how 24 goes. If their arms stay strong and they are getting guys out, both will get starter innings. 125-200 per season until they are declining in their mid 30s. Either way, they have what they need to get guys out. If Paddack has a solid season, I bet they extend him for another 2-4 years. 

My guess is their desire to extend him will be influenced by how our pitching prospects fair this year.  I suppose a lot of teams are in the same position but it seems like we have a whole bunch of guys right now who may or may not be MLB SPs.  Varland / SWR / Canterino / Festa / Raya / Prelipp / Lewis / Culpepper / Mathews / Ohl / Hall.  I did not mention Soto assuming he is 3-4 years out.  I hope the prospects do so well they don't feel compelled to extend Paddack.