Can Lewis Thorpe Translate Whiffs into Results?

Spin rate seems to be the mantra of this FO.  This could be an issue here, or Thorpe has to refine his command to being able to hit his spots to a much greater degree than other pitchers.  Can this be done, yes, but can he succeed?  It seems to be a much more narrow plane than some other pitchers with better stuff.  

Maybe if you feel his ceiling is a #4 starter, you use him as part of a trade package to get better pitching.

Not much trade value after reading this page....

The kid's 23 y.o., for chrissakes.  The question still remaining after this article is, given Thorpe's below-average Statcast data, how did he achieve remarkable whiff and SO rates?  Stated another way, what did Thorpe do right and how does he do more of that?

If Thorpe is just a little more effective this year than Gibson was last year, then he will have progressed nicely. Pitching takes time as we have seen from Berrios and others. Gibson and Perez had uneven results and the Twins just need a little more consistency and slight improvements from the pitchers who pitch in those two slots. 

I'm afraid that there will be some pressure on Berrios and Odorizzi to be stronger though. That was a reason to slot someone (a FA signing) above those two. I am optimistic about the depth of the Twins pitching but concerned about their ability to be consistent. If the pitchers keep the scores down, around four, the offense should produce. A most concerning issue for many is the lack of an arm above Berrios, or to slide in above Odorizzi. At some point this season a trade seems likely, but I doubt any team will part with a pitcher the Twins need before July. 

As of now it is a certainty one of the lefty's, either Thorpe or Smeltzer heads north with the club in the rotation. Spring training results will determine this. I am both scared and excited to watch our collection of young starters this spring. We've positioned ourselves so that we need at least 2 of them to take a major step forward. Roll the dice gentlemen seems to be the bet. I'll bet on Dobnak and Smeltzer to begin the season. I am actually weirdly confident in Dobnak. I like his chances. His mental game seems superior to Thorpe's right now. Dobs is ready for this. We'll see who else is. Maybe Thorpe is ready as well. I hope so.

Thorpe's stuff is a little below average across the board. On the positive side, he has four pitches that are usable. He needs to improve his command/control a bit more and maybe fewer FB. 

Thorpe didn't have much luck last season either. He had a .438 BABIP in 2019 (batting average on balls in play). At worst, that'll drop to the .320s over an entire year.  

I think he'll be ok - a league-average SP in the long run.

I've got two takes on Lewis Thorpe after following him through the minors and watching him in the majors last season.

 

1. He needs to drop his BB/9 by about 1 in order to be a serviceable pitcher. He had a couple times last year where he was just walking the house and it seemed to come out of nowhere. 

 

2. He did get unlucky last year according to his 3.47 FIP and 6.18 ERA, mostly because of a ridiculous .438 BABIP. While those indicators suggest he could have had a nice year, I don't know that I trust it. With his statcast numbers laid out above and his 91.5 mph fastball, his K rate seems to be the outlier. He could easily be a guy whose value absolutely tanks when he gets full exposure to the league, especially the righty heavy Central teams. He may be an intriguing arm to include in a trade for another higher end pitcher if a team values him currently. I don't know that he's the kind of arm that winds up anchoring another team's rotation that we regret for years.

He's 23 but missed 2 years so I still have high hopes for him.    Your #1 point is everything, or at least a lot of things.    Pineda walked 1.7 per 9.  Berrios was at 2.3. Odorizzi was a little bit of an outfiler but 3 of his best 4 seasons have been when his walk rate was 2.6 or less.  Still, our 3 best pitchers had the 3 best walk rates.    Walks translate into runs.   Walks also indicate you probably have some issues with control inside the zone as well.   Get walks down around 2 per 9 and he will be great.      If he can't, he won't.   

Thorpe used 4 pitches when he arrived last year. His slider is a major league plus pitch. His four seamer will play with his slider. The change up is the concern. He used it almost exclusively against right handed batters and it was not effective.

If he goes to the minors it would be for the express purpose of developing that change up to help keep right handed batters off balance. I hope that is something that can be accomplished this spring. If there is any glimmer of hope in that change up I would have in the rotation until Pineda returns.

As of now it is a certainty one of the lefty's, either Thorpe or Smeltzer heads north with the club in the rotation. Spring training results will determine this. I am both scared and excited to watch our collection of young starters this spring. We've positioned ourselves so that we need at least 2 of them to take a major step forward. Roll the dice gentlemen seems to be the bet. I'll bet on Dobnak and Smeltzer to begin the season. I am actually weirdly confident in Dobnak. I like his chances. His mental game seems superior to Thorpe's right now. Dobs is ready for this. We'll see who else is. Maybe Thorpe is ready as well. I hope so.

Lets be honest the 5th spot will be a rotation of players going back and forth between AAA, unless one flat out is great. Thorpe starts and after the game he will be on a plan back to AAA Smelzter will be up ready to pitch in relief or the next start, then after the game he will be sent down and the next guy will be here. There really will be no reason to have 5 set starters, when then continue to keep guys fresh and innings count down by sending them down for 10 days. IMO

He's 23 but missed 2 years so I still have high hopes for him.    Your #1 point is everything, or at least a lot of things.    Pineda walked 1.7 per 9.  Berrios was at 2.3. Odorizzi was a little bit of an outfiler but 3 of his best 4 seasons have been when his walk rate was 2.6 or less.  Still, our 3 best pitchers had the 3 best walk rates.    Walks translate into runs.   Walks also indicate you probably have some issues with control inside the zone as well.   Get walks down around 2 per 9 and he will be great.      If he can't, he won't.   

I wish Gonzo and Romero would have realized it was just that easy to fix.

Thorpe's stuff is a little below average across the board.

Completely disagree with this.

I dunno, I’m skeptical that Thorpe will ever have much big league success. The MiLB numbers are definitely there, but in the times I saw him pitch last year I came away thinking he had absolutely no command of his pitches. If he can’t reliably throw the curve for a strike when he needs one, and if he can’t spot his fastball exactly where he wants it, I think he’ll have a really hard time. Major League hitters are good enough to spit on the breaking ball and hammer the fastball if he’s not hitting his spots.

I would love to be proven wrong.

The rules have changed for this kind of movement and that is going to have a big impact on the rotation of young players 

Yes. It will impact the roster and the need for an extra pitcher. 

I think it will help the development where longer stays in AAA will allow them to work on the pitches that will help them be successful. In Thorpe's case he needs a better change up to keep right handed hitters off balance.

The rules have changed for this kind of movement and that is going to have a big impact on the rotation of young players 

Didn't realize the rule change, which makes depending on 3 rookies even worse.

Nice to see a young Twins pitcher come up with 4 pitches, recent years everyone seems to have only 2 somehow and a 3rd they only throw 5% of the time. Thorpe has a shot as a back of the rotation starter if he can refine his command. Otherwise maybe his fastball can play up a bit in relief. He'll be in the mix once the season starts, but I think Smeltzer and Dobnak are the favs, they seemed the most likely to give the team innings in their starts. 

This is kind of our biggest fear coming true isn't it?  The FO having so much confidence in their ability to develop pitching that they roll with one or more of Thorpe/Smeltzer/Dobnak in the rotation. 

I could be completely wrong, but Thorpe just seems to pass the eyeball test better than Smeltzer or Dobnak as anything more than a spot starter.  Don't think any of them are game-changers though.

If I had to bet, I'd say the FO is hedging bets and will roll out Berrios, Odo, Pineda, Bailey, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe for 3 months and then look to make a move at the deadline if needed.

I'd be pleasantly shocked if a significant trade (Gray, Boyd, Archer, etc.) is made before Opening Day.

Our off season to date seems to depend on it.....so one can hope!

I'm down with our kids filling in while Pineda and Hill are resting in a warm climate and getting prepared to be good from late May for Big Mike and after the All Star Game for Richy Rich. Forget Gray, Boyd, Archer. Think something better in July (unlikely).

Meanwhile, get Donaldson, or as someone else suggested ... Betts. We still have three months more (thinking hopeful) of winter.

Thorpe seems to me sort of similar to Gonsalves, he had a lot of minor league K's but didn't seem to be able to actually blow people away. Gonsalves was also highly rated in the system, but didn't seem to get much of a shot before being left off of the 40 man. Hopefully Thorpe does well.

Thorpe seems to me sort of similar to Gonsalves, he had a lot of minor league K's but didn't seem to be able to actually blow people away. Gonsalves was also highly rated in the system, but didn't seem to get much of a shot before being left off of the 40 man. Hopefully Thorpe does well.

They do look similar by the numbers but Gonsalves is 89-90 with the fastball and didn’t generate swings and misses in his short stay. I don’t know the AAA numbers but it is hard to imagine they were anywhere near Thorpe’s swing and miss rate,

I think Gonsalves would have been the first one up last year had he remained healthy and lost his best shot at an opportunity.