BREAKING: Twins to Sign Versatile Marwin Gonzalez

A lot of those guys have already been replaced (by Cruz, Cron, Schoop, a returning Castro and Polanco, an emerging Astudillo), or didn't play much until after we sold at the deadline.

 

If we sell at the deadline again in 2019, I don't care who plays the last two months of the season. I certainly wouldn't guarantee Gonzalez $21 mil now to take those PAs.

We must remember last year differently then because typically each game there were at least three guys in the lineup who I didn't even want on the team.

If this team does find a way to have Astudillo and Gonzalez on the 25-man, it would also be pretty helpful when calling up prospects. If a starter gets injured, they could call up the best hitter period, not the best hitter who plays a particular position. Maybe now we get Kirilloff or Rooker instead of Tyler Motter or Gregorio Petit.

All winter long, we've been hearing that the Twins shouldn't be aggressive while Buxton and Sano are such big question marks.

 

Now, we make our biggest cash guarantee to lock in a guy to provide average-ish corner play in the case that Buxton and Sano don't make it.

 

Something about those two positions doesn't add up to me. There will be Marwin Gonzalez types available for reasonable cost at the deadline if we need it.

Why wait til the deadline and then have to trade assets?

I don't get why anyone would be down on this signing. The biggest weakness of this roster before today was flexibility. We brought in one of the most positionally flexible players in MLB for a price that isn't going to hurt the payroll in any meaningful way. Oh, and he's a switch hitter so can give anyone on the field a day off anytime they need. It's a new era in baseball. Most guys aren't playing 160 games anymore. And at this point the Twins don't have anyone who's earned the right to demand they're out there every day (other than Cruz at DH). It's a long summer and there will be injuries and there will be guys who have bad years, or bad stretches. More depth is not a bad thing, ever. We are more talented now than when we woke up this morning. That's a good thing.

Do we need more pitching? Yes. Does making our position players better hurt our pitching? No. I don't get the posts after every signing complaining that "now we won't sign so and so." People were mad when we claimed Cron because then we couldn't sign a "proven MLB" player, but now we sign a proven MLB player who has a ring and can help show our young guys what it takes to be a champion and we're mad that we didn't sign him earlier? Just don't get the complaints about this signing at all. The day we bring in a Marwin type guy to replace a Trout type guy we can complain. He's not replacing anyone at this point. And anybody getting sent down because of this signing wasn't that great of a player to start with.

I don't think Marwin Gonzalez alone makes much of a difference in our odds of selling vs buying at the deadline.

Me neither, but your post was asking why we would sign him now when we could just wait until the deadline and get a similar player then. And I'm asking why you would want to wait and see when his signing only costs money as opposed to trading assets for a similar player who will still cost money. I don't follow the logic of ever wanting to trade for a similar player to one you can just sign and save your prospects.

I don't mind the signing. Versatile guy that can hit. He's good insurance for when Sano get hurt walking his dog or going out to get the mail. 

 

I still would rather have had the Twins spend real money on a difference maker, rather than bring in him, the pitcher from Texas, and the Angels pitcher. Use that money on one good guy instead of 3 marginal ones is my line of thinking. 

why not both?

Because we don't need Gonzalez to start anywhere right now. We already have 9 starters, and they'll get a good portion of the playing time in season's first half, regardless of whether we have Gonzalez or not. Which gives us time to kick this decision down the road a bit.

 

I know that "kicking a decision down the road" gets a bad conservative connotation, but this precisely the kind of decision and situation where you can safely kick it down the road -- 2/21 for a ~2 WAR "10th man", with our roster, isn't such a great deal that you can't pass it up. I think signing that deal now could actually be the more "conservative" route than simply waiting or looking for upgrades elsewhere.

The Astros had Bregman-Correa-Altuve-Gurriel across their infield to start last year. They had Marisnik-Springer-Reddick across their outfield to start last year. Marwin still got 489 ABs for them last year. Which Twins starter are you plugging in for 1 of those guys? Rosario for Marisnik? Sure I can see that. There is literally no other Twins starter I would plug into that lineup. Maybe you see our players differently than I do, but I think it's safe to say the Astros had a better lineup last year than the Twins do this year and they were able to creep into the playoffs even with the weight of Marwin getting 489 ABs dragging them down. He's not a world beater but neither is anyone else in our lineup. Who are you concerned this established, quality big leaguer is taking ABs from? 

2/21 is nothing. That is not hampering our team in any way, shape, or form. We could cut him tomorrow and be just fine eating that money. My point is that "kicking it down the road" means you're giving up more in the transaction. We got him for a reasonable contract that doesn't hurt us. If we are competing and hit the trade deadline and decide we need a guy like Marwin to get us to the postseason then we're bringing this sort of contract in while also sending out prospects. So now we're paying the money anyways and we also lost prospect talent. And if he makes us better at the deadline he makes us better now. Why would you want half the season of better? To save $5 mil? Signing him doesn't hurt us, but might make us better. I don't see the downside. No 2 year deal is ever going to cripple a team. Ever.

That was because there was typically four guys hurt/terrible/suspended, and Escobar could admirably fill the shoes of one of them. Gonzalez is likely going to play the same role as Escobar the past few seasons. Nice player to have, but he doesn't raise their ceiling very much, if at all, and frankly I don't think he is worth the money/commitment.

I agree, Marwin doesn't raise the ceiling much, but he raises the floor tremendously. This signing is taking away at bats from Adrianza, Field, Grossman, Petit and Motter.

I'd think it would go without saying that this team is going to have guys hurt/terrible/suspended again in 2019. Who those players are is unpredictable, but now there's a league average hitter on the roster who can cover near any spot saving us from watching a 29-year-old batless journeyman who's been DFA'd three times in the last two months and has spent most of his last five season in AAA.

This isn't a blockbuster deal, it's not putting anyone over the top, but everyone and their mother complained about the Twins lack of offensive depth last year, and justifiably so. This should shine as evidence that this team finally cares about establishing a MLB quality bench. It cost them 10M per this year and next? So what, good for them.

Does it really add 1.5-2 wins? Each one of our starting position players projects to more WAR (or WAR per PA) than Gonzalez at Fangraphs right now. The only way to fit in Gonzalez's projected 1.8 is to reduce playing time for everybody else, and I'm not seeing a particularly compelling platoon benefit either.

 

It *could* wind up adding 1.5-2 wins through some combination of injury or underperformance, but I don't see a way to *project* 1.5-2 additional wins right now.

 

Edit to add: as I stated elsewhere, I see this a move that further solidifies our 82 win projection, but doesn't really add much to it.

Doesn't it make immense sense to sign a guy to provide insurance for injuries and underperformance? Every team, every year suffers from these things. Going into a season with 9 guys and saying "they're all starting 162 and hitting in this exact order and providing these exact stats" is a recipe for disaster. 

Marwin Gonzalez is a proven MLB player on a contract that doesn't hurt anything. I can't comprehend how adding a proven MLB player is a bad thing. It just doesn't make sense.