Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan

His salary over the next two years is a non-issue given the amount of young talent here and on the way.  The much more pertinent question is should the Twins operate like Milwaukee, Tampa, and Cleveland trading for assets that will contribute in 2027-2033 in a year they don't reasonably project to contend?  

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

His salary over the next two years is a non-issue given the amount of young talent here and on the way.  The much more pertinent question is should the Twins operate like Milwaukee, Tampa, and Cleveland trading for assets that will contribute in 2027-2033 in a year they don't reasonably project to contend?  

MLBTRumors has Ryan at $5.8M for next year, which means a $12M salary for the following year is likely near an the next expected figure. Indeed, money is not a factor in any way, fashion, or means in a discussion about Joe Ryan.

The story this winter will be what he can return if traded. From comments on this site we learn that BBTV has Ryan around 47 in value while various players of interest carry higher numbers. My sense is that several teams will value Ryan much, much higher. If the Twins do trade Ryan, the player coming back needs to be a regular in the lineup who can make a difference for the Twins. Why would any team trade such a player? The reason is usually because their team already has coverage in place and need a fellow like Ryan. It should be interesting. The Twins do not need to trade Ryan, so any deal should be clearly worthwhile. As fans we know there are always risks. 

In my opinion, Ryan is the pitcher the Twins hope all the other pitchers in the pipeline can become.  If they trade him - it signals they really are just giving up on the next few years, even more so than trading Lopez.  

I hope the Twins don't tender Joe Ryan. Because I'm hoping that they work out a long-term deal for 3-5 seasons.

I recognize that I'm probably living in fantasy land. (we have ice cream cake here, so it's nice)

23 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

In my opinion, Ryan is the pitcher the Twins hope all the other pitchers in the pipeline can become.  If they trade him - it signals they really are just giving up on the next few years, even more so than trading Lopez.  

Ryan is the one pitcher they can get massive value for to help not only this year but also potentially prospects.  As long as still have Lopez you have a pitcher who can be your #1 for reasonable value and that you won't get a big return on.   I hope they keep both,  but I depending on the return I don't think I will be disappointed if they trade Ryan.  

Expect the worse , be easier and less disappointing if it does actually happen  , Ryan and Lopez traded this off season to continue purging the payroll   ...

If they remain we can be pleasantly surprised  ...

Im sure he will be tendered but after that I'm out of the control of what happens and our fans voice doesn't seem to matter to the organization   ..

16 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I hope the Twins don't tender Joe Ryan. Because I'm hoping that they work out a long-term deal for 3-5 seasons.

I recognize that I'm probably living in fantasy land. (we have ice cream cake here, so it's nice)

I think many of us see your range (3-5 years) tacked on to the two years remaining (for a total in the 5-7 years) as a hopeful signing. It also would be quite odd given the numerous changes made in July, but it could happen. The total for the next 6 years would approach $138-150M to keep Joe Ryan. Considering the comments from ownership about money, this seems out of range at this time. One thing is certain - the Twins need to make a really good move either way on Joe Ryan. Is waiting 6 months to a year even an option?

19 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I hope the Twins don't tender Joe Ryan. Because I'm hoping that they work out a long-term deal for 3-5 seasons.

I recognize that I'm probably living in fantasy land. (we have ice cream cake here, so it's nice)

I hope they trade him for a guy that is at least as good for 6+ years.  Now, I have 80% of the money I would have spent on Ryan to spend elsewhere like extending Jenkins or Keaschall or signing a very good FA to fill a key role.  That would be a far better result.  Obviously, you have to trade for the right guy.

7 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

After Ryan is traded, of what are you "losing control" that you now have control over?

I don't have the control to keep him or trade him  , it's up to the organization  ...

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I think many of us see your range (3-5 years) tacked on to the two years remaining (for a total in the 5-7 years) as a hopeful signing. It also would be quite odd given the numerous changes made in July, but it could happen. The total for the next 6 years would approach $138-150M to keep Joe Ryan. Considering the comments from ownership about money, this seems out of range at this time. One thing is certain - the Twins need to make a really good move either way on Joe Ryan. Is waiting 6 months to a year even an option?

agree on basically all of this. I think it would be very encouraging if the twins could & would lock up Ryan for the next 5-7 seasons (and I feel like the risk is fairly low, as these things go). I just fear that Cheap Pohlad payrolls make it more likely that he gets tendered and traded. Hope the scenarios you propose above come to pass. Even if Ryan isn't a true #1 (YMMV on him) he's still a guy who can anchor your rotation and be predictable in the kind of performances you can expect. I'd really hate to lose that. Plus, I really enjoy watching Ryan pitch.

55 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

There have been other message boards on this, so I'm not going to beat a dead horse, but I think they would be nuts to trade Ryan or Lopez. Good starting pitching is one of the toughest commodities to obtain and it's the foundation for any serious contender.  If money is the issue, they can push off serious trade discussions until next offseason.

You are correct, pitching is very valuable to contenders and teams with a good chance to contend place a high value on top of the rotation SPs.   Are the Twins serious contenders?  If so, they should definitely keep Ryan.  If they are not, they are probably giving up a very good return for inconsequential gain.    

Could the Twins get a return similar to the White Sox return for Crochett.  They got teel who is already contributing and Bradon Montgomery, their #1 prospect who is ranked 35 on MLB ,com and a couple other guys.  What is reasonable to expect in return for Ryan.  I don't know how we say if it's a good idea to trade him or not without knowing the return.

We're all Twins fans.  We should expect nothing less than Falvey dealing Ryan and Lopez

Ryan is a proven SP, which is very hard to come by. Even if he wants to be traded, I wouldn't trade him. Because I don't trust Falvey to get the trade deserving of Ryan or able to make the team better. Sooner or later they may have to trade him because I doubt that they'll be able to extend him, sadly to say.

The Twins are HIGHLY unlikely to get Ryan to sign an extension they are willing to pony up.

So the analysis is:

1)  2 more years of Ryan for ~$18M plus a comp pick in 2028;  OR

2)  The value of trade assets he would return.

I would submit that Door #2 would and should be a big pile of assets.  Whether those assets outweigh Door #1 is the real question for the Twins' FO.

Other than Buxton (should he agree to waive his NTC) Ryan is the Twins' most valuable trade asset.  If they do trade him, they need to hit a home run.

It all boils down to keeping Ryan with whatever risk of injury is exists, declining value possibility, potential to trade later, or being satisfied with a draft choice pick in July of 2028. Well, the Twins could put out $138-150M to sign Ryan long term.

Any trade should target the best player that can be returned to help the Twins. Targeting a specific position reduces the possibilities and the Twins have exactly one position player, Byron Buxton, who is an established player that the team can more or less count on in the next two years. 

Falvey and his crew have not left many people feeling confidant in his ability, but he is in charge so we will all have to hope for the best decisions.

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He traded FOR Ryan, right?

This is a fair point, which may be countered by other decisions as well as looking at the poor rosters of the last two years. Keeping in mind that Falvey & friends did acquire Ryan and some other solid players, I do think one must accept the current reality of the organization and hope he pulls off some good deals that improve the overall talent. Your point (the trade for Ryan) needs to be acknowledged.

Just for whatever passes for a record around these parts:  I would be highly skeptical of a team with the limited resources of the Twins extending a pitcher for his age 33+ seasons.  That is something the rich teams do, because if that pitcher flames out or gets injured, they just sign another guy.

I would trade him in the off season if I liked the return; otherwise, I would look to trade him next deadline.

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

He traded FOR Ryan, right?

Falvey didn't trade FOR Ryan. TB loved Nelson Cruz & had a surplus of AAA SPs. They APPROACHED Falvey, it was a no-brainer. That trade happened at the deadline & TB was desperate for offense. It was a good trade, Cruz just didn't click with them. Most FO's have the book on Falvey (they'll wait him out & not offer him anything) & the odds of that happening again are slim, especially in the offseason. Twins should have made a killing this deadline with all the great proven talent traded away. I was disappointed.

This will be our primary and hottest topic this entire off season.  It's really hard to get a handle on what the Twins will or won't do regarding Wallner, Larnach, Jeffers, a veteran Closer or any other potential FA signing until the questions of Ryan and Lopez are resolved.

I don't think there is a poster on TD who doesn't like watching Ryan or Lopez pitch when they are healthy and "on their game."  A true strength of the Twins is having Lopez and Ryan at the top of their starting rotation.  Not many teams can boast having 2 guys with that kind of talent at the top of their rotation.

Good starting pitching remains the single most sought after commodity in major league baseball.  Even better than that is AFFORDABLE good starting pitching.  "Affordable" is fluid, because if it's "GOOD" it won't be "affordable" for long.  

As has been pointed out, the Twins do not have to trade either Ryan or Lopez.  For that reason, the expected return for either should be outstanding.  But the decision of which one to trade is crystal clear.  One would be traded at close to "peak value" while the other would be traded at the lowest I've ever seen him valued.  

We've discussed Baseball Trade Values several times.  I'll admit, there are times I see valuations of players, where I see a precipitous drop or huge gain, and I can somewhat understand a raising or lowering, but maybe not as extreme as the site suggests.  Ryan going from a value of 73 down to 47 is one of them.  Yes, his 2nd half wasn't stellar, but there is still his age, affordability and talent.  From 73 I could see a value of about 65-66.  That's the lowest Ryan should be.  

Pablo Lopez on the other hand is under contract at about $22 million per year for 2026 & 2027.  When he pitched this year he was VERY good.  He did have to battle thru some injuries but none of them are career threatening.  Pablo is also 29 years old, yet his "value" is only 7.3.  To put this into context, the latest value I've seen for Baily Ober is 16.6.  That's more than double Lopez and Ober STRUGGLED this season.  Given the choice, I'd rather keep Lopez and trade Ober.

The Twins have Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel, and Prielipp.  I'm not counting Festa because I think it's clear his 2026 will be spent in the BP.  There is also LHP Kendy Rojas and Marco Raya at St. Paul.  There is certainly depth in their rotation candidates.

The 47.0 to 7.3 value advantage Ryan has over Lopez makes Ryan the clear choice to return a solid major league hitter and additional value on top of that.  The Twins would be selling HIGH on Ryan.  

But something that jumps out to me is the value Baily Ober still carries.  If he's at 16.6 on October 16th, his value isn't going to change much between now and the Winter Meetings.  I for one have never been a Ryan Jeffers fan.  His catching ability is below average and his bat is overrated (In my opinion).  Jeffers holds a value of 8.1.  If I could acquire a younger, better catcher who also hits better than Jeffers, I could see trading Jeffers rather than signing him to a pricey extension.  

I'd love to see an Ober (16.6) trade to the White Sox for Edgar Quero (14.6).  Ober gives the White Sox stability in their rotation with a vet arm and the Twins get a Catcher that can play 100-120 games per season.

The other deal to consider:  Wallner (22.5) and Ober (16.6) for Kyle Teel (24.8) and relief pitcher Jordan Leasure (7.8)  Twins are trading 39.1 of value and are receiving 32.6 so maybe the White Sox throw something else in, but I may take that deal straight up.

Either Teel or Quero gives the Twins a solid major league Catcher who can play 100-120 games behind the plate for years to come.  They are both better Catchers than Ryan Jeffers will ever be.  Having Teel or Quero with Tait and Jimenez coming within 2-3 years allows the Twins to sign Vasquez for 1-2 years at $2.5 million per year.  With a young durable catcher like Teel/Quero and a lot of young SP in the rotation, I think retaining Vasquez at a price significantly lower than $10 million makes sense for the next 1-2 years.  Even if he can't hit himself out of a paper bag.  

Like most of us, I wish I had more confidence in our current president of Baseball Operations to make the shrewd kind of trades to restructure the talent on our MLB roster.  But if you would allow for a trade of Ryan to the Red Sox and Wallner & Ober to the White Sox you could have the rough equivalent of the following without even considering what you could get for Jeffers.

Lopez, Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel, Payton Tolle, Prielipp (rotation candidates).                                    Bullpen:  Leasure, Funderburk, Sands, Lawyerson, Festa, Topa, Coulombe and Ryan Helsley($7.5 Million)

Lineup:  C Teel  1B Casas 2B Keaschall  3B Lewis  SS Lee  LF  Martin  CF Buxton  RF Wlyer Abreu  DH Yandy Diaz (via trade $12 million) Bench:  Vasquez, Clemens, Roden.  

Guys like Walker Jenkins, Culpepper, E-Rod if they show out in spring training and continue to play well at St. Paul would be just a phone call away.  At some point, the Twins are going to rely on all this young SP they have from their own system and trades.  There is a lot of potential and a lot of doubt. 

But the lineup is woefully insufficient and the fielding is sub par.  New bats in the form of Abreu, Teel, Diaz and Casas as well as Keaschall and a bounce back Lewis make the lineup potentially far more productive with better and harder contact.  Buxton staying healthy is always a key.  If he's healthy, he WILL produce.  Jenkins in particular could inject some dynamic offense and defense into the lineup.  

There is opportunity waiting to be realized with the right kinds of trades for the right kind of return.  

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Twins should have made a killing this deadline with all the great proven talent traded away. I was disappointed.

Nobody know who is or who isn't going to pan out. Couple of hopefuls and a few maybe's is all we got.
Not much of a haul for a least 6 to 7 proven MLBer's. Time will tell and for now.....watching what pans out is about as exciting as it gets for Twins fans.  

You  started a rebuild. Use your assets to come out of that rebuild in the very best position possible. To me the choice is obvious whether it's popular or not.