Article: Position Battle: Fifth Starter

[Thrylos]

And therein lies the crux of the dispute I think and why we won't see eye to eye on this. Many of us see 2014 as a lost season without a chance of contending. Since we believe that to be true all that really matters is who will make this team better in 2015 and beyond. I for one could care less if the Twins win 75 games or 65 this season. In fact I'd probably prefer the 65 where they'll at least get a better draft choice as a reward for the terrible season.

 

Exactly. We disagree. And I cannot as a fan say that I would want my team to have another awful season and that should be the purpose of a major league team.

 

My premise is that the Twins should try to be competitive each and every season and if they are not there is something wrong. Also, with the free agent pitcher signings that Ryan did, they better be competitive in 2014.

 

If someone wants to watch baseball for the sake of watching baseball and not having his team win but see his team develop players, or be entertained, there are plenty of minor and/or independent league teams to follow.

 

Minor League teams' purpose is to develop players.

Independent League teams' purpose is entertainment.

Major League teams' purpose is winning.\

 

But that is just my opinion.

[TheLeviathan]

Who wants true competition? I think most teams would much prefer to have all 5 starting pitchers set prior to ST. I would like to hear a case, that only one of Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, and Pelfrey deserve a spot in the starting rotation.

 

I want true competition if you don't have guys that are truly rotation figures. We have a big pile of guys that on good teams are 4s or 5s. That isn't stability. That isn't a wealth of options. It's just an improvement over they pile of 6s we had recently. Let's not lose perspective here - we improved (and I heartily endorse the Hughes and Nolasco signings) but it wasn't like we brought in a couple aces here.

 

ERA+ for Hughes, Pelfrey, Diamond, and Worley are all below 80. That's not good, they all should have something to prove to have a spot. Correia was ok last year, but he's old and recently was demoted to the bullpen by another team previously. Given the team's need to build for the future, he should have to show last year wasn't a fluke. So should most of the group, including guys like Hughes that I'm high on.

[TheLeviathan]

Major League teams' purpose is winning.\

 

But that is just my opinion.

 

Sometimes to get to winning you have to let young players take lumps in the majors as part of their development. At some point, you've learned all you can at AA and AAA.

[Thrylos]

Sometimes to get to winning you have to let young players take lumps in the majors as part of their development. At some point, you've learned all you can at AA and AAA.

 

Agreed. That's why I think that Pinto should be the starting C instead of Suzuki and Hicks the starting CF instead of Presley. And these 2 give the Twins a better probability to win as well... And I'd rather have Meyer or Worley or Gibson in the rotation than Correia, Deduno or Diamond every single day, for the same reason.

[ChrisKnutson]

Who thinks that we should still be acquiring more starter pitchers for the 5th rotation spot from the free agent market/trades, because the cardinals have 8 good young starters they could let maybe one come over to Minnesota for a few decent twins or try to sign Barry Zito (even though he might not be playing in 2014, he's healthy) he could provide some very useful knowledge and experience to a so-so pitching staff. To me I'd like to see the twins trade some of our prospects not buxton or Sano but maybe a Danny Santana could bring over a good pitcher instead of a 5th starter.

What do you guys think?

[Thrylos]

26 is the prime of a career, and is not young. The data is out there.

 

If you are talking about the fangraphs aggregate (i.e. adding all players together) data, these are way skewed because of small sample sizes on both edges of the age graphs. i.e. the few19 year olds (think Harper and Trout) in the majors are usually on the top of the scale to be there, whereas you have a whole bunch of 28 year olds ranging from MVP to replacement level... That data needs to come with error bars reflecting the sample size, but it never does

 

The better data is data that looks at each individual player's career and then adds the individual curves. Harder to do than the fangraphs' way, but much more accurate and pushing the peak closer to 28-30...

[cmathewson]

Exactly. We disagree. And I cannot as a fan say that I would want my team to have another awful season and that should be the purpose of a major league team.

 

My premise is that the Twins should try to be competitive each and every season and if they are not there is something wrong. Also, with the free agent pitcher signings that Ryan did, they better be competitive in 2014.

 

If someone wants to watch baseball for the sake of watching baseball and not having his team win but see his team develop players, or be entertained, there are plenty of minor and/or independent league teams to follow.

 

Minor League teams' purpose is to develop players.

Independent League teams' purpose is entertainment.

Major League teams' purpose is winning.\

 

But that is just my opinion.

 

I don't buy the 70-win crap. I expect them to be competitive this year (above .500). But this team doesn't have the horses to contend. They should in 2015, with Pinto, Arcia, Gibson, Meyer, May, Hicks, Sano, Rosario Santana, and Buxton breaking through. At least five of those need to break through sometime this year. So it is by definition a transitional year. It can still be competitive, but the September Twins will look very different from the April Twins.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Who thinks that we should still be acquiring more starter pitchers for the 5th rotation spot from the free agent market/trades, because the cardinals have 8 good young starters they could let maybe one come over to Minnesota for a few decent twins or try to sign Barry Zito (even though he might not be playing in 2014, he's healthy) he could provide some very useful knowledge and experience to a so-so pitching staff. To me I'd like to see the twins trade some of our prospects not buxton or Sano but maybe a Danny Santana could bring over a good pitcher instead of a 5th starter.

What do you guys think?

 

I think that is the age-old question. The Cardinals have what every other team wants, because they developed their own guys, so they have all the leverage. They can jack the price up higher than a Danny Santana-- it would take Buxton or Sano or more, to pry a Shelby Miller from them.

 

Yet we don't need other team's prospects. We have our own. Gibson should have pitched in the majors last year -- he was twirling complete game shutouts in AAA Rochester last spring. In my opinion, over the past half dozen years, the Twins have forgotten the balance balance between getting a guy seasoning in AAA and teaching him to pitch in MLB. Gibson doesn't need any more innings at AAA and Meyer hopefully doesn't dwell long in the minors before being called up. Many people here will disagree though.

[birddog]

We have our top two pitching coaches with the Twins in Anderson and Cuellar. Don't you want your top prospects to learn from the best coaches and pitch in front of the best defensive players? I agree with those who say Meyer and Gibson need to throw a majority of their innings in the majors this year.

[The Wise One]

We have our top two pitching coaches with the Twins in Anderson and Cuellar. Don't you want your top prospects to learn from the best coaches and pitch in front of the best defensive players? I agree with those who say Meyer and Gibson need to throw a majority of their innings in the majors this year.

 

Mason spent 11 years as LaRussa's bullpen coach. He might know a little something.

[The Wise One]

Except for last year, when the "youthful" Kyle Gibson was blocked by the likes of PJ Walters, Cole DeVries and Pedro Hernandez, instead of being called up in May. And Alex Meyer certainly won't be rushed this year, at least not until all the out-of option guys prove whether or not they deserve to be around- I even expect at least one or more of the recent offseason pitching acquisitions and/or Trevor May to get a start before Meyer does.

 

If Kyle Gibson had pitched 20 major league games much as he did the first 10 there would be nothing but clamoring what a poor pitcher he is. Through those 10 games he did not show any progress at a major league level and was sent back down. So what basis could you possibly have for saying Gibson was blocked when he pitched poorly at the major league level other than that it is opinion an no facts? While you are fact checking, take a minute to see that DeVries did not pitch for the Twins until September after Gibson was shut down. By the numbers, Walters was no worse than Gibson.

[Thrylos]

If Kyle Gibson had pitched 20 major league games much as he did the first 10 there would be nothing but clamoring what a poor pitcher he is. Through those 10 games he did not show any progress at a major league level and was sent back down. So what basis could you possibly have for saying Gibson was blocked when he pitched poorly at the major league level other than that it is opinion an no facts? While you are fact checking, take a minute to see that DeVries did not pitch for the Twins until September after Gibson was shut down. By the numbers, Walters was no worse than Gibson.

 

Gibson's 2013 season needs to be put in perspective. It was his first season back from Tommy John surgery and I think that the Twins did not call him up early enough. He was called up June 29th after he had already pitched 101.7 innings in the minors (with a 2.93 ERA/3.10 FIP) and had this near no-hitter.

 

Here are his game logs with the Twins in 2013. Check out the GameScore (GSc) column. 50 is average. So Gibson had a few average games, one good game, couple bad games and a horrible game. He did not pitch poorly and the "major league level" and I strongly believe that if the Twins got him up to Minnesota in May instead of late June, you'd be happier with Gibson. Like Pelfrey, give him time to heal.

[Rosterman]

I hope they bring the BEST 25 both, period. Cut ties with the wannabees, let the rookies that NEED developing continue to develop unless they so shine the place up. I just wish there was some value to be had in any of the three, but there isn't.

[DocBauer]

Not sure I could possibly post all the thoughtful arguments I agree and disagree with!

 

To begin I will echo statements and repeat my own on Gibson. He is hardly old at 26. And in real baseball terms he is "25" when you figure a lost year to surgery and a feeling his arm is as sound as ever, if not better. Something often reported by successful TJ patients. If he tosses bullets and is read, so be it. We're all happ as can be. But a few weeks to stretch out and get n a groove before being promoted does nothing to defeat his value or potential.

 

2014 is not a lost season. It hasn't even begun yet! But it is a transition year. The management staff and front office knows this. But their job is not simply to promote youngsters early to struggle and try to figure things out. Their job, especially in a transition year, is to win and be competitive the best they can, and to promote youngsters when ready. This accomplishes two things.

 

One is to create the best winning/competitive environment for the fans to actually put butts in the seats and keep the team interesting, but also to promote the best environment for success for the young players on the roster, and those who will yet be promoted.

 

The second is to not rush those yet ready so they can gain experience, gain confidence and consistency, and refine their skill set so they can play to a MLB level when given the opportunity and not suffer initial shell shock.

 

I firmly believe Ryan and Gard and everyone else fully expects some roster fluctuation during the season. And I don't believe they will be hesitant to release, trade, or DFA where necessary to continue forward with this year's transition.

[jokin]

If Kyle Gibson had pitched 20 major league games much as he did the first 10 there would be nothing but clamoring what a poor pitcher he is. Through those 10 games he did not show any progress at a major league level and was sent back down. So what basis could you possibly have for saying Gibson was blocked when he pitched poorly at the major league level other than that it is opinion an no facts?

 

While you are fact checking, take a minute to see that DeVries did not pitch for the Twins until September after Gibson was shut down. By the numbers, Walters was no worse than Gibson.

 

Let's see....what basis?.....what opinion?....how about just some simple fact-checking:

 

"Cole DeVries won a spot in the season-opening rotation last season, but landed on the disabled list with a forearm issue before he could make his 2013 debut."

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24766598/minnesota-twins-not-interested-keeping-cole-de-vries

 

Give me something harder to research than this next time, please. And I stand with Thrylos and many others who post here in saying that by the time the Twins had explored every healthy option, Gibson had used up much of his arm strength- a May call-up was warranted on a rebuilding team, not wasting more and more time with guys who not only are not part of the future, but who also had no business on a major league roster as a starter.

[cmathewson]

Let's see....what basis?.....what opinion?....how about just some simple fact-checking:

 

"Cole DeVries won a spot in the season-opening rotation last season, but landed on the disabled list with a forearm issue before he could make his 2013 debut."

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24766598/minnesota-twins-not-interested-keeping-cole-de-vries

 

Give me something harder to research than this next time, please. And I stand with Thrylos and many others who post here in saying that by the time the Twins had explored every healthy option, Gibson had used up much of his arm strength- a May call-up was warranted on a rebuilding team, not wasting more and more time with guys who not only are not part of the future, but who also had no business on a major league roster as a starter.

 

This. Also, it needs to be said that some of Gibson's sub-par games were umpire-induced. Parker did an analysis of some of his games and he was the most robbed pitcher in the game in terms of strikes called balls. Umpires weren't used to his movement, and often called pitches where they were caught by the catcher rather than where they crossed the plane of the strike zone. In one game, 18 strikes were called balls by an umpire.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

And therein lies the crux of the dispute I think and why we won't see eye to eye on this. Many of us see 2014 as a lost season without a chance of contending. Since we believe that to be true all that really matters is who will make this team better in 2015 and beyond. I for one could care less if the Twins win 75 games or 65 this season. In fact I'd probably prefer the 65 where they'll at least get a better draft choice as a reward for the terrible season.

 

 

 

I don't think anyone would complain about too many starting pitching options if we had say the Cardinals' rotation. That's a great problem to have. On the other hand the Twins only have 1 pitcher that would even get a start in the playoffs for most teams. I fail to see how having six #5 starters is a good thing. I do see how it quickly could become a bad thing though if it prevents a highly touted prospect from coming up and getting a crack at the rotation.

 

Let's not pretend that the Twins will just cut a player because a prospect (say Alex Meyer) is suddenly ready.

 

Alex Meyer isn't suddenly ready, and if by some miracle he were, there is not one pitcher on the roster preventing him from making his debut. Injuries and failures will happen, Worley/Diamond/Deduno will either fail, get injured, or be in the bullpen. You are right, the Twins will not cut a player to make room for another, they don't have to.

[PseudoSABR]

Let's see....what basis?.....what opinion?....how about just some simple fact-checking:

 

"Cole DeVries won a spot in the season-opening rotation last season, but landed on the disabled list with a forearm issue before he could make his 2013 debut."

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24766598/minnesota-twins-not-interested-keeping-cole-de-vries

 

Give me something harder to research than this next time, please. And I stand with Thrylos and many others who post here in saying that by the time the Twins had explored every healthy option, Gibson had used up much of his arm strength- a May call-up was warranted on a rebuilding team, not wasting more and more time with guys who not only are not part of the future, but who also had no business on a major league roster as a starter.

Despite your bolding, lip-service isn't a fact (something you'd use against the organization at your behest, I think). It's easy to say someone won something that they didn't. We call those beauty prizes. That it took so long for DeVrie to earn his way back speaks far more to what the Twins thought of him, than some give-a-way quote in Spring Training. Really.

 

You can pretend to know what Gibson would have done if you had this that and the other, but really, no one knows, least of all any of us. Gibson stumbled at the ML level, and it's a surrender of personal responsibility to suggest it's anything but his fault. The Twins, honestly, put him in the best position to succeed. That he didn't suggests something about both the extent of his injury and his development.

[howieramone1406390264]

Standard operating procedure in MLB is not to rush a rookie starting pitcher just back from Tommy John surgery to the bigs to take advantage of his fresh arm. We were told on several occasions that he was being held up because of being inconsistent. Ryan basically talked about building up his arm strength and going from there.

[wagwan]

Just read a fantasy projection of the top 60 pitchers in baseball.....nary a Twin to be found.... Pretty tough to compete when ALL of your pichers are in the bottom half of the league. So all this talk about a fifth starter seems pretty useless How long will it be til the Twins have a guy ranked in the top 30? Just one pitcher ranked better thanONE other teams best?

[The Wise One]

Let's see....what basis?.....what opinion?....how about just some simple fact-checking:

 

"Cole DeVries won a spot in the season-opening rotation last season, but landed on the disabled list with a forearm issue before he could make his 2013 debut."

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24766598/minnesota-twins-not-interested-keeping-cole-de-vries

 

Give me something harder to research than this next time, please. And I stand with Thrylos and many others who post here in saying that by the time the Twins had explored every healthy option, Gibson had used up much of his arm strength- a May call-up was warranted on a rebuilding team, not wasting more and more time with guys who not only are not part of the future, but who also had no business on a major league roster as a starter.

 

A player NOT playing blocks no one. DeVries on the injured list blocks no one. If DeVries were pitching as he did the previous year he wouldn't have been blocking any one. He did not pitch so one would not know how he would have pitched.

To assert your claim that he had used up arm strength by the time he was called up is not provable. Velocity charts would hardly be conclusive to loss of arm strength. When he was drafted he was a 89-93 fastball. That is what he threw for the Twins. There were no reports of loss of speed.

When he went back down, how Gibson pitched before appears to have worked as well as it did before he was called up. SSS a given.

[The Wise One]

Gibson's 2013 season needs to be put in perspective. It was his first season back from Tommy John surgery and I think that the Twins did not call him up early enough. He was called up June 29th after he had already pitched 101.7 innings in the minors (with a 2.93 ERA/3.10 FIP) and had this near no-hitter.

 

Here are his game logs with the Twins in 2013. Check out the GameScore (GSc) column. 50 is average. So Gibson had a few average games, one good game, couple bad games and a horrible game. He did not pitch poorly and the "major league level" and I strongly believe that if the Twins got him up to Minnesota in May instead of late June, you'd be happier with Gibson. Like Pelfrey, give him time to heal.

 

Yep, give him time to heal. There is no debate on that. What the results are this year matter. Last year was a recovery year. The question is while regaining the strength is which roster was he better off on. His results do not say it was a mistake to keep him in the minors. Is it better for him as a pitcher rebuilding strength to have bad results? If it was about learning what works and what doesn't at the major league level there was no evidence of learning. If it is honing the craft to be more consistent with his pitches and the bad games were a result of an unhoned craft, the question is what level does he play at to hone that? I think someone said mlb was about winning.

By GSC, Albers pitched 3 gems, PJ Walters pitched a couple of good games.

[stringer bell]

Let's see if I can summarize most of the current threads here. The 2014 season is not lost, but it is most important that, contrary to last year, a transition is made towards youth an improvement. All of the roster and transition debates seem to be about what course to take. That is, whether to go with the highest-upside guy right now or to help his development by going with a lower ceilinged guy. I think there are at least two factors at play here and the priority each of us has dictates how we feel about a certain debate. One priority is development--is it better for Gibson, Hicks, Pinto etc. to play every day (take a regular turn) in Triple A or is it better for them to throw these guys into the fire? Another factor is competitiveness--which players acquired or going north will help improve the W/L ledger for the Twins? A third factor is cost--some of us (myself included) are operating on the premise that money "saved" now can be spent later, others say that the Twins have plenty of money to spend to get to their own arbitrary salary budget number. We all would like to see moves that at least do not hurt the 2014 Twins, but helps future teams when Byron Buxton is the center fielder and Miguel Sano is the third baseman.

 

There is merit to all sides of the debate. There are, of course, differences of opinion on the upside and usefulness of several players. I think the right course is somewhere in the middle. Ryan, Gardy, and the rest of the Twins brass need to realize that the fan base is sick of their team losing with flawed, inferior players (Joe Mauer and the Washington Generals?). However, to expect this team to turn over the whole roster and win 25 more games is a fantasy. Youth and talent, eventually, must be served. However, not a the expense of development. To me, that means that five exciting guys start their seasons in the minors--Pinto, Gibson, Hicks, Buxton and Sano) but all of them with the possible exception of BB get their chance before the leaves start to turn.

 

I don't know if I'm going to be satisfied with the 25 guys that go north. I hope the veteran pitchers and catcher improve the team some and that bouncebacks improve the offense to the point that .500 stays in sight. The reinforcements should be exciting--the five guys I mentioned plus Alex Meyer, perhaps Trevor May, perhaps more.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Exactly. We disagree. And I cannot as a fan say that I would want my team to have another awful season and that should be the purpose of a major league team.

 

My premise is that the Twins should try to be competitive each and every season and if they are not there is something wrong. Also, with the free agent pitcher signings that Ryan did, they better be competitive in 2014.

 

If someone wants to watch baseball for the sake of watching baseball and not having his team win but see his team develop players, or be entertained, there are plenty of minor and/or independent league teams to follow.

 

Minor League teams' purpose is to develop players.

Independent League teams' purpose is entertainment.

Major League teams' purpose is winning.\

 

But that is just my opinion.

 

I don't think that there's a fan out there that doesn't want their team to win the world series. I do think though that this focus is a bit narrow. We all knew what last year was going to bring, and while I think most of us are expecting a losing season this year as well; I don't think that it's wrong for a fan of a team to also want to see the team set itself up to be competitive long term. Sports teams tend to be cyclical in terms of being good and being bad... and we all know the Twins have been bad. They are moving in the right direction, and I don't see any problem with people being excited about progress.

[Thrylos]

Just read a fantasy projection of the top 60 pitchers in baseball.....nary a Twin to be found.... Pretty tough to compete when ALL of your pichers are in the bottom half of the league. So all this talk about a fifth starter seems pretty useless How long will it be til the Twins have a guy ranked in the top 30? Just one pitcher ranked better thanONE other teams best?

 

I'd rather have the Twins' pitchers be in the top 30 in after season reality rather than pre-season fantasy

[jokin]

A player NOT playing blocks no one. DeVries on the injured list blocks no one. If DeVries were pitching as he did the previous year he wouldn't have been blocking any one. He did not pitch so one would not know how he would have pitched.

To assert your claim that he had used up arm strength by the time he was called up is not provable. Velocity charts would hardly be conclusive to loss of arm strength. When he was drafted he was a 89-93 fastball. That is what he threw for the Twins. There were no reports of loss of speed.

When he went back down, how Gibson pitched before appears to have worked as well as it did before he was called up. SSS a given.

 

You're missing the point. The very fact that a player the likes of DeVries was in the opening day rotation is the point. His body of work over his career is all the evidence we need to know how he would have pitched- he was a classic AAAA player, someone you call up for a spot start, only- everyone knows that- yet the Twins foisted DeVries and the others I've mentioned as legitimate "contenders" for rotation spots, over 2 miserable seasons- before finally admitting how foolish that whole charade was this offseason.

 

Gibson never even had a chance to make the opening day roster, so YEAH, he was blocked by "the likes of" DeVries- presumptively because he was coming back from a long layoff from TJ, thus requiring AAA innings. But given his advanced age and the Twins in the midst of rebuilding and not being overly concerned about the W-L record, I would have had no problem starting him out right away in the MLB rotation, if and when he proved not ready, he easily could have continued his real-time-rehab, stating every 5th day in Rochester- exactly the scenario that Pelfrey could have been convinced to pursue.

 

Gibson's #1 draft pick status, good minor league career and dominanat 2013 AAA performance is all we need to know that he was wasted in Rochester by keeping him there until the end of June. It really isn't hard at all to infer that a guy on a 130+ innings limit who frequently dominated the IL during the bulk of his time there probably was reaching the end of his effectiveness by the time he was called up- based on his subsequent major league results. A tired arm, a club-imposed innings limit and the major league learning curve all combined to doom his major league numbers.

[PseudoSABR]

You're missing the point. The very fact that a player the likes of DeVries was in the opening day rotation is the point. His body of work over his career is all the evidence we need to know how he would have pitched- he was a classic AAAA player, someone you call up for a spot start, only- everyone knows that- yet the Twins foisted DeVries and the others I've mentioned as legitimate "contenders" for rotation spots, over 2 miserable seasons- before finally admitting how foolish that whole charade was this offseason.

 

Gibson never even had a chance to make the opening day roster, so YEAH, he was blocked by "the likes of" DeVries- presumptively because he was coming back from a long layoff from TJ, thus requiring AAA innings. But given his advanced age and the Twins in the midst of rebuilding and not being overly concerned about the W-L record, I would have had no problem starting him out right away in the MLB rotation, if and when he proved not ready, he easily could have continued his real-time-rehab, stating every 5th day in Rochester- exactly the scenario that Pelfrey could have been convinced to pursue.

 

Gibson's #1 draft pick status, good minor league career and dominanat 2013 AAA performance is all we need to know that he was wasted in Rochester by keeping him there until the end of June.

I know it's not my place, but I'm gonna say it anyway. Do you realize how patronizing it is to use bold for emphasis? It's never going to elicit a productive conversation. While somewhat challenging, it is possible to utilize the natural emphasis of language and grammar to embolden your points.

 

 

And to your larger point. If Gibson succeeded at the ML level, the Twins clearly kept him down too long. If Gibson failed at the ML level, the Twins clearly kept him down too long.

[cmathewson]

And to your larger point. If Gibson succeeded at the ML level, the Twins clearly kept him down too long. If Gibson failed at the ML level, the Twins clearly kept him down too long.

 

I remember the whole Bartlett/Castro discussion like it was yesterday. Half of the people said the Twins were wise to send him down because he was so much better than expected after his recall. The other half said the Twins were stupid to send him down because they just wasted prime playing time for a guy who was clearly more talented in every way than Castro. FWIW, I sided with the latter half.

 

Unfortunately, there is just no way to prove a counter-factual. It requires an assumption. Namely, it is better to go with the more talented player rather than the more experienced player, all things considered. In the case of Gibson vs. DeVries (or Hendriks or Hernandez or...) it was obvious after May that he was the more talented player. In fact, he performed better than them at the major league level after dominating in AAA. He wasn't great, but he was better than a half dozen arms the Twins were forcing their customers to suffer through while Gibson was dominating in the minors.

 

Based on his performance in the majors last year, he should start the Spring behind only Deduno for the fifth spot. I know options are an issue for the other two, and you certainly don't want to lose them. But lose them you will by the end of 2014 if not the beginning. Gibson is just the start of it. Meyer and May both have higher upside than Gibson, imho. Diamond and Worley don't belong in that group talent-wise.

 

In the interim, I really just want the best five guys taking the ball every fifth day. Both Deduno and Gibson belong in that group. I'm sure the Twins will find a way to work it out. But I hope they don't fixate on keeping marginal guys because of sunk costs or other fallacious reasoning. Unlike some, I don't believe they will. This is a team that ate two years of Nick Blackburn's contract rather than letting him pitch in the majors.

[Oxtung]

Exactly. We disagree. And I cannot as a fan say that I would want my team to have another awful season and that should be the purpose of a major league team.

 

My premise is that the Twins should try to be competitive each and every season and if they are not there is something wrong. Also, with the free agent pitcher signings that Ryan did, they better be competitive in 2014.

 

If someone wants to watch baseball for the sake of watching baseball and not having his team win but see his team develop players, or be entertained, there are plenty of minor and/or independent league teams to follow.

 

Minor League teams' purpose is to develop players.

Independent League teams' purpose is entertainment.

Major League teams' purpose is winning.\

 

But that is just my opinion.

 

I agree with much of your larger point Thyrlos.

 

1) If I was the GM I would approach each and every offseason with the intentions to be competitive the next season. I would bring in veterans and prioritize my roster to try to win, for the most part.

 

2) Once my team was no longer competitive I would look ahead to next season quickly. Can I move a veteran for prospects? Do I need to bring up a player so they can get some seasoning and help us win in future years? Etc...

 

As I said I think the difference between you and I is that when I look at the moves the front office made this offseason I don't think they are even close to making this team a .500 team let alone contending for the playoffs. Ryan did very little to improve this team IMO. So I've already moved past 1 and am looking at #2, how can I make this team competitive long term.

 

On the other hand you seem to believe the Twins could be around .500 this season. If I still believed that I would be at step #1 still; put the teams best foot forward.

 

That's totally bunk. Rookies begin typically begin 23-25, with Twins being the most conservative, so add an extra year of development. As this article shows the prime age for baseball players is anywhere between 27 and 31.

 

I have no idea if Mike is right or not but your BP article on age doesn't clarify the matter as it restricts itself to batters (It uses OPS as the dependent variable). Mike can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he was referring to pitching with his statement since we're in a thread about pitching. It is entirely possible that peak age is different between pitcher and hitter.

[Kwak]

My, my. When I posted that the Twins should just let the marginals "slug it out" in Spring training then cut the losers--in comes the mod to scold me that the Twins "need options". Is it just me, or has there been a change in philosophy?

 

I would have bet $ to doughnuts last April that the Twins would never pop to sign three (3!) free-agents pitchers whose combined annual salaries are in that forbidden zone (or was?) that Smith proposed to "fix the pitching". Yet here we are discussing "who's fifth"? Last year's discussion was more like: " Diamond is #1, Correria for sure, who are the others?" Well, approximately $30MM later--now we digress about #5. Gardy got "his wish"--players who "have won before" (veterans from playoff teams). Last year was about: "I don't need to spend $30MM to fix the pitching". Another season, another plan.