2014 Rotation and You Ain't Gonna Like It......

[howieramone1406390264]

I don't blame anyone, like the OP, who don't like an inaccurate label being put on their position that (whether you intend it or not) belittles the accuracy of their position.

 

Most everyone but you and one other person don't see this as cynical, just realistic. As for the quote - you used the same term and "agreed" with another poster aggressively pushing it as a negative. Perhaps you should read the quotes you "agreed" with and then consider who exactly needs to own up to their position.

I'm uncomfortable with some one who posted Terry Ryan is pathologically adverse to risk and the Twins are hypocritically harmful to players with feistiness in their game, lecturing another poster on being cynical.

[LaBombo]

My only point on this would be for people to own their cynicism and not be so sensitive/offended when they get called out on it.

"We" prefer another label.

 

Right.

[PseudoSABR]

When you equate realism with worst case scenario, I call that cynicism. Everyone's got different notions of what's realistic.

 

For my part, there really isn't much accuracy in the OP (no offense intended); the Twins will acquire a number of other options that will replace any number of the ones listed.

 

Think about it, if we did this exercise last year at this time, we'd have Diamond, Devries, and Walters in the rotation.

[LaBombo]

I'm uncomfortable with some one who posted Terry Ryan is pathologically adverse to risk and the Twins are hypocritically harmful to players with feistiness in their game, lecturing another poster on being cynical.

 

Terry Ryan is a public figure who doesn't read this board. What's your point?

 

Anyway, maybe it's time to get back to baseball before the Mod Squad arrives.

http://www.fiftiesweb.com/tv/mod-squad-c.jpg

I picture Snepp as Linc with a slightly larger afro.

[PseudoSABR]

The "worst case scenario" has been the most accurate predictive model for the Twins for going on three seasons now.

 

It's not surprising that people are angry. What's surprising is who they're angry at, and who they're not.

What part of worst case scenario is having the best minor league system in baseball?

[TheLeviathan]

lecturing another poster on being cynical.

 

I'm not sure you've kept up with the conversation. I'm cynical of the team right now and I have no problem owning that. This analysis, however, is not cynical. It's a pretty realistic take on the players most likely to be in our rotation next year.

 

It is very unlikely the team brings in several players better than this list: Albers, Gibson, Deduno, Hendricks, Diamond, Worley, Correia, and (likely) Pelfrey. One? Hopefully, but anything more than that is probably not realistic.

[Guest USAFChief]

Late to the party, but a couple things:

 

1. There really isn't any hope for adding a "top of the rotation" starter this winter. Even if the Twins were willing to bid on one, which is doubtful, there isn't one available. All the more reason last winter was so disappointing to some of us, and all the more reason "just wait till you have everything in place, and then go get one" isn't as easy as it sounds.

 

2. I have no doubt the Twins will poke around the scrap heap for starters again this winter. If that's "adding arms to improve the rotation," then some will be proven correct. But just like adding "Pelfry, Correia, Harden, Worley" was "adding four starting pitchers" in name only, dabbling around the edges won't make any significant difference again next year.

 

3. I disagree that adding one really good starter doesn't "significantly" improve the rotation. Assuming 30 odd starts, that's 30 starts from someone really good, and theoretically 30 less starts from your worst starter. But again, barring a trade, there really isn't much hope for a "really good" starter this winter.

 

4. "We almost have to be better" isn't a very good strategy. We heard that all last winter.

 

Call me cynical, but right now I don't see how the Twins starting pitching is very much improved in 2014.

[LaBombo]

Think about it, if we did this exercise last year at this time, we'd have Diamond, Devries, and Walters in the rotation.

We'd also be much closer to knowing what we have in Deduno and Albers, and to a lesser extent Gibson.

 

Not advocating an all-or-nothing approach. It just would have been nice to see either an organization being honest with the fans and with itself about rebuilding, or an organization smart enough to know that this was a rebuilding year.

[Guest USAFChief]

 

Think about it, if we did this exercise last year at this time, we'd have Diamond, Devries, and Walters in the rotation.

I don't see how we'd have been way off in that prediction. Diamond was in the rotation for the bulk of the season, and the other two aren't significantly worse options than what is currently in the rotation.

[drjim]

Yeah, it's not like there's a Tim Lincecum or Josh Johnson in that FA crop.

 

And if there were, they would never come here unless the Twins severely overpay them.

 

And even if they did, it wouldn't help build a contender, because that only happens through the draft and through trades for prospects.

 

And Kevin Correia and Edwin Jackson are essentially the same caliber of pitchers.

 

We've got it already.

 

If you consider Lincecum and Johnson as top of the rotation starters then we have significantly different definitions of what that means. You do realize this isn't 2011 anymore.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't see how we'd have been way off in that prediction. Diamond was in the rotation for the bulk of the season, and the other two aren't significantly worse options than what is currently in the rotation.

 

Leaving out Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde of Scott Diamond, here is a fun breakdown:

 

5-5 4.11 ERA 99 ERA+ WHIP 1.209 K/9 6.0

2-5 5.69 ERA 72 ERA+ WHIP 1.508 K/9 6.1

 

8-8 4.59 ERA 90 ERA+ WHIP 1.448 K/9 5.2

4-10 5.32 ERA 78 ERA+ WHIP 1.578 K/9 5.4

 

W/L might give it away, but can you tell the difference between Devries and Walters vs. Correia and Pelfrey? I guess I'm not seeing how these new names that represent the non-cynical view made all that much of a difference in performance.

 

If you want to pat the front office on the back for bringing in bodies and that a repeat of those moves somehow represents non-cynicism, well, that's a bit of a head scratcher to me.

[LaBombo]

What part of worst case scenario is having the best minor league system in baseball?

Not sure what Buxton and Sano have to do with the rotation or the MLB season in general.

 

Even if the farm system were relevant, the struggles of Gibson, Parmelee, Hicks, and until recently Dozier should be at least a bit of a reality check for how excited to be about the near-term futures of Twins prospects.

[Otwins]

I doubt Ryan would do it but if Correia's $5 million is such a big deal, I'd prefer they waste the money and just cut him instead of signing what ever 2014 back of the rotation vet they have their eye on.

 

I don't think they will cut him but they could put him in long relief. He could be your emergency starter -mop up guy. Swarczak throwing too many innings.

[Mr. Brooks]

If you consider Lincecum and Johnson as top of the rotation starters then we have significantly different definitions of what that means. You do realize this isn't 2011 anymore.

 

A lot of Lincecum's downfall has been bad luck.

His FIP was 4.18 last year, and is 3.48 this year.

He's not quite the pitcher he was pre 2012, but IMO he's still a top of the rotation pitcher.

His HR/FB rate has jumped, and his strand rate have dropped. Typically (not always) those are more SSS luck than causation due to diminished skills.

[Oxtung]

When you equate realism with worst case scenario, I call that cynicism. Everyone's got different notions of what's realistic.

 

For my part, there really isn't much accuracy in the OP (no offense intended); the Twins will acquire a number of other options that will replace any number of the ones listed.

 

Think about it, if we did this exercise last year at this time, we'd have Diamond, Devries, and Walters in the rotation.

 

DeVries and Walters were not considered rotation quality pitchers last season. On the other hand Hendriks, Worley both have been as recently as this season.

 

Correia and Gibson seem to be locks for next season. There is going to be a left hander in the rotation. I haven't looked at LH FA's but somehow I doubt there is a high quality one available.

 

So to me the rotation to start 2014 will probably be:

 

Correia

Gibson

Internal Candidate (Deduno, Worley, Hendriks)

Left hander (Darnell, Hernandez, Diamond, Albers, FA)

???

 

That leaves one opening for a FA. IMO it will be in the mold of the last 3 or 4 seasons. All the historic evidence points to a low budget, strike throwing, no strikeout pitcher signed to a 1 year deal.

[PseudoSABR]

DeVries and Walters were not considered rotation quality pitchers last season.

Of course they weren't but they had limited success at various points throughout the season. Which is why predicting the rotation to be made primarily of current placeholder seems rather eager...

[Oxtung]

Of course they weren't but they had limited success at various points throughout the season. Which is why predicting the rotation to be made primarily of current placeholder seems rather eager...

 

Except that the "current placeholders" have been thought to be more than placeholders in the very recent past and might still be. I think it is probable there will be one spot for "last chance" pitchers; Worley, Hendriks, Diamond. That just isn't true about DeVries and Walters.

 

Now I think it's a fair point to say they won't all have a rotation spot set aside for them but then again the OP didn't say that either.

[nicksaviking]

Think about it, if we did this exercise last year at this time, we'd have Diamond, Devries, and Walters in the rotation.

 

Diamond was the presumptive and sad excuse for opening day starter until an injury derailed his bid. DeVries was also penciled into the rotation until he got injured a week before the season began.

 

What part of worst case scenario is having the best minor league system in baseball?

 

I'm not sure how the farm is relevant when we are discussing the 2014 rotation. There isn't another likely starter down there that will be a helpful addition next spring. Even if all the youngsters we are pinning the future on were ready, no sane GM should bank on Joe Mauer and two dozen players under 25 to be competitve. Expecting the farm to account for 100% of the useful roster players is a sure way to derail a rebuild.

[Halsey Hall]

I get a headache reading all this. But my opinion is that Correia is gone by spring. There's a very good chance Pelfrey is back, along with 3 new faces to compete. I really couldn't name one pitcher today who I'd say is in the rotation next year. The odds would be on Deduno, but we'll see what happens the rest of the way. I don't think Gibson will hit full stride til middle of next season at the earliest. You can list them all, but it won't matter. Come spring the word will be "guys, there's 5 openings for the starting rotation, have at it". You might even see Swarzak have a go at it.

[Thegrin]

1. I was very disappointed in today's loss to Cleveland. We got an OK start from Gibson. We got some hits with RISP. We had a 4 run lead. Our bullpen let us down.

After a few hours of moping about, I realized that this is really a reason to be happy. The bullpen has been so consistently good, that I have come to rely on it to win these kind of games. When the starters allow runs, I accept the loss. When the hitters don't hit with RISP, I accept the loss. If we lose a game because of sloppy defense or sloppy base running I am frustrated, but I know they don't do it often. However, the bullpen has been our rock and losing this game was a blow. The bullpen has been steady and dependable and wins games. It is disconcerting when the bullpen allows runs. We can only hope it doesn't become a regular occurrence. A one game failure of the bullpen is depressing, but it points to one of the things the Twins do well and is something to build on.

 

2. Since the Twins are losing more than they win, I would rather be an optimist and be wrong, than a cynic "realist" and be right. We still have 44 games to play. If we win half of them we will have had a significantly improved season over 2012. We have a weak schedule with a lot of games in the Central division. It could happen. We shouldn't kiss this season off until its over.

 

So there you have it:

1. Deduno

2. Albers

3. Gibson

4. Corriea

5. Flotsam from AAA

 

3. Players improve. Sometimes, sending a player to AAA improves them (Bill Lee). Pelfrey, Worley, Diamond, Blackburn and Hendriks all had injuries/surgeries. You can't predict a player until they have completely recovered from their injury/surgery. This is the recovery year for all these players. All these players have shown ability to be major league starters. We started the 2013 season with a rotation full of question marks. We will probably start the 2014 season the same way, with much the same cast, unless Deduno, Albers or somebody shows consistency over the rest of the season. That does not mean we are doomed.

 

4. I wish the Twins organization would be known for pitchers that pitch quickly like Albers. Maybe he will be an example to the rest of the staff.

[howeda7]

If Morneau is not back, they're looking at a $63 million payroll. There's simply zero excuse for going into 2014 with that rotation and that payroll. Phil Hughes and Josh Johnson, just to name 2, could both easily be added without the payroll going past $90 million.

[Shane Wahl]

The Twins should not have spent the money they did on the pitching they did in the last offseason. Why advocate doing that again? First, resigning Pelfrey is a rather disgusting idea. I cannot fathom why they would do that. Correia isn't attractive to anyone as a trade candidate, obviously, so the Twins are stuck with that unless they are willing to eat half his salary or something.

 

I would like to first say that I am not *fine* with the following rotation to start 2014, but I am better with it than with signing more overpriced replacement or worse pitchers:

 

Gibson

Deduno

Diamond

Worley

Hendriks

 

Where's Albers? Well, I can't really imagine him sticking around as a good starting pitcher for much longer. Teams *will* catch on. I still view him as a good replacement for Swarzak who will be a bit more expensive next year (so he is either traded or moved to MR).

 

Trevor May (more recent issues aside) is the next option and Meyer hopefully follows. And maybe Wimmers comes roaring back or something.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm not sure how the farm is relevant when we are discussing the 2014 rotation.

Well some one said "worse case scenario is the predictive model for the Twins" (in spite of their gains in minor league talent).

 

My point is it's not at all "realistic" to think that Deduno/Albers/Gibson/Correia/AAAA will be the opening day rotation--that's a cynical worst case scenario. That's what I'm arguing against.

 

The bemoaning of the front office seems loudest when we simply focus on what they did worse. Cynical posters continue to extend the failure in free agent pitchers (which mostly every other team failed in too) to a failure in the front office at large. The continued Twins/Terry Ryan don't know what they are doing narrative just gets super old.

[beckmt]

Linecum and Johnson. Take a chance. Will probably cost around $22 million a year for the pair. Will see how close I am after they sign. Otherwise take a chance at Johan if the price is right on a one year deal.

[PseudoSABR]

It is very unlikely the team brings in several players better than this list: Albers, Gibson, Deduno, Hendricks, Diamond, Worley, Correia, and (likely) Pelfrey. One? Hopefully, but anything more than that is probably not realistic.

They will bring in several other guys, and odds are a few of them will be better than this lot. You're discounting the volatility of pitching; some of these guys will regress and some of the flotsam will out perform their career trends. And this doesn't even speak to their capacity to sign a reasonable option.

[shs_59]

My Prediction:

 

1. Josh Johnson/ Doc Halladay or/ Tim Lincecum 8-12 million a yr. for 3 years with an option........... In Lincecum's case may require 11-13 Mill in Halladay maybe only a 2 yr deal

2. Samuel Deduno

3. Colby Lewis (FA , 1 yr $4.5 Million with incentives that can earn him 5.5 Million)

4. Kyle Gibson

5. Kevin Correia

 

Bullpen:

Perkins, Fein, Burton, Theilbar, Pressley, Swarzak, Albers (can spot start)

 

Roenicke gets non-tendered and Duensing is traded with someone (likely Doumit) in a 2 for 1 off-season trade.

 

AND OTHER BIG MOVE:

 

Re-sign 1B Justin Morneau 3 years for $33.5 Million thru 2016

 

10.5 M , 11.0 M , 11.5 M ....with 250K incentive for leading twins in HR's, 500 K incentive for all-star game apperance, 750K incentive for AL MVP candidate, and $1.0 for AL MVP or World Series MVP.

 

 

ALL THIS CAN BE DONE with only a small increase in salary from $78 Million to 85 ish....

 

 

Pelfrey's, Duensing, Doumit's and some of Morneau's money ....is reason.

 

Then Hopefully Willingham has an amazing 1st half in 2014, so he can be dealt for a studly prospect or 2 at trade deadline to make room for Sano. (Plouffe shifting to outfield and Sano 3B)

[ThePuck]

If Morneau is not back, they're looking at a $63 million payroll. There's simply zero excuse for going into 2014 with that rotation and that payroll. Phil Hughes and Josh Johnson, just to name 2, could both easily be added without the payroll going past $90 million.

 

I believe it's even less than 63M. Morny makes 14M, Pelfrey makes 4M, Blackburn makes 5.5M, Carroll made 3.75M. That's 27.25M. We're somewhere around 80M this year. So more like mid-50M.

[TheLeviathan]

They will bring in several other guys, and odds are a few of them will be better than this lot.

 

And here is the problem.

 

The OP didn't say much of anything about "better" or "worse" or performance in general. In fact, the closest thing said about that was somewhat optimistic. You have made this about "the pitching will be bad again" even though the original post was more about "here is the group most likely to be pitching for us". Now, obviously, most of us are going to see that group and not be encouraged. You could be an optimist if you want, but it's completely unrealistic to suggest that the group pitching for us is going to be significantly different.

 

Afterall, there are only so many 40 man spots. Only so many turns in the rotation. Your own example of non-cynical (Pelfry/Harden/Correia) wasn't all that much better than the flotsam they replaced. Or just to the fact that we have so many of these guys still early in their opportunities as starters. Whatever angle you want to take, it's perfectly realistic to expect the majority of our rotation is going to be built from within.

 

You are welcome to suggest who, among that group, is going to exceed career trends. To continue your crusade to diminish everyone who has a cynical view (lord knows cynicism has been so off the mark lately....) is completely unfair in this case. Nothing about the original post was stopping you from agreeing that they could be a .500 or better rotation.

 

Perhaps the real cynic is you - always looking to turn every honest, realistic assessment into a gripe.

[twinsnorth49]

The OP didn't say anything about Ryan not bothering to try to sign any free agent pitchers, he merely said there really isn't much out there, this whole thing is just an assessment of what we already have and what we could very likely end up with next year, how is that cynical?

 

Besides, when it comes to starting pitching what has Ryan done for any of us not to be cynical? If some want to deride the thread as being that, given the state of things, is it not a realistic viewpoint?

[nicksaviking]

My point is it's not at all "realistic" to think that Deduno/Albers/Gibson/Correia/AAAA will be the opening day rotation--that's a cynical worst case scenario. That's what I'm arguing against.

 

The bemoaning of the front office seems loudest when we simply focus on what they did worse. Cynical posters continue to extend the failure in free agent pitchers (which mostly every other team failed in too) to a failure in the front office at large. The continued Twins/Terry Ryan don't know what they are doing narrative just gets super old.

 

The rotation you listed very likely won't be the opening day 5, but history says it will be a close facsimile. I've said I think Ryan will get a better pitcher but I've also said that hope is unfounded and bound to disappoint. Why do you think Ryan will spend on actuall rotaion upgrades when he has never done so in the past? Nothing is changed from last year. The rotion was just as bad and Ryan had plenty of money to spend.

 

As to the second paragraph, why would we not focus on what Ryan does worse? He does not show an ability to produce top end pitching. He can put together a great farm system and a great lineup (which he hasn't) but the team still isn't going to bring a parade to town if he does not have the ability or fortitude to put a solid to elite pitching staff together. In other words, any other percieved accomplishments are moot with his historically awful rotation.